Dave Price
Atlanta Braves +139
The Braves are showing value at this price given the struggles of Ricky Nolasco, who is 0-2 with a 12.75 ERA over his last three starts. The Braves are very familiar with Nolasco from his days in Miami, and they have consistently gotten the better of him. He is 6-10 with a 5.19 ERA in 23 starts against Atlanta. He's lost three of his last four starts against the Braves and has given up four runs or more in five of his last six starts against them. Freddy Garcia has been rock solid since coming over from Baltimore. The Braves have won two of his three starts while he's posted a 1.83 ERA. The veteran Garcia should be able to deal with the pressure of this moment better than Nolasco, who is making his postseason debut. Garcia is 6-3 with a 3.28 ERA in 10 career postseason starts. Take Atlanta.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Dodgers -147
The Los Angeles Dodgers will close out the Atlanta Braves tonight. They have outscored the Braves 22-11 in this series thus far, and they clearly have the edge on the mound and at the plate in Game 4.
Atlanta's season comes down to the washed-up Freddy Garcia, which is not good news for Braves' fans. Garcia has gone 4-6 with a 4.77 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 5.70 ERA in six road starts.
Ricky Nolasco has been solid all season for Los Angeles, going 13-11 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.210 WHIP over 33 starts. The right-hander is 7-7 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 15 home starts as well.
The Braves are 1-11 in their last 12 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Dodgers are 8-1 in their last 9 Divisional Playoff games. Los Angeles is 64-29 in its last 93 games overall. The Dodgers are 6-0 in Nolasco's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Los Angeles in Game 4 Monday.
Steve Janus
Boston Red Sox -111
As good as the Rays were down the stretch to get to this series, I believe Tampa Bay has ran out of gas and their season will come to an end today. As good as Alex Cobb has been down the stretch and really overall this season, he's not had a lot of success against the Red Sox. In his two starts vs Boston this season, he allowed 9 runs on 14 hits in just 9 and 2/3 innings of work. Clay Buchholz, who will be starting for the Red Sox, didn't allowing a single run and gave up just 5 hits while striking out 17 in his two starts vs the Rays this season (13 innings). Had it not been for an injury, Buchholz very well could have won the Cy Young this season. He enters with a record of 12-1 to go with a 1.74 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in just 16 starts.
Joe Gavazzi
Boston Red Sox -105
This should be the pitching duel of the day. The Rays went 15-8 in 23 Cobb starts where he posted a 2.64 ERA. Cobb was personally 7-0 at home from a mound where the Rays won 9 of his 13 starts. Cobb is off a solid, if not spectacular, 4-0 victory vs. Cleveland in the Wild Card game. With the Rays facing elimination,, and standing 14-6 home/loss, on a field where they are 51-30, it could be a knee-jerk reaction to follow the home team. But it appears that Tampa Bay has spit the bit if the 19-6 butt whipping they took in 2 games in Boston is any indication. They simply had to expend too much energy (and did too much celebrating) to carry over their late season momentum into this division playoff rivalry. Now the Rays return home following their marathon 5 city 12-day 5,600 mile peregrination. Unfortunately, they will have to face the red hot bats of the Red Sox and rejuvenated ace Buchholz. Returning to the rotation late in the season, Buchholz did not skip a beat. For the season, the Red Sox were 14-2 in Buchholz starts where he posted an MLB best 1.74 ERA. It was even better on the road where Boston won all 7 Buchholz starts in which he posted a 1.40 ERA. History concurs. 16 starts against Tampa Bay have seen Buchholz author a 2.41 ERA. That includes 2-0 this season, spanning 13 IP, in which Buchholz allowed just 5 hits. In 9 starts from this mound, Buchholz has a 2.26 ERA.
Wunderdog
Boston at Tampa Bay
Pick: Boston -110
It has started to look like the energy the Rays spent to just get to the post-season has left this team tired and searching for answers. The answers will be even harder to find today facing Clay Buchholz, who if not for a mid-season injury, may have been a Cy Young winner. Buchholz has had an amazing season at 12-1 with a 1.71 ERA. He hasn't skipped a beat since coming back allowing a total of five runs in four starts. One of those starts was a five inning, 0 run performance against this Tampa team. Cobb has struggled in his four starts vs. the Red Sox where he is winless with a 5.16 ERA. Boston owns a 28-6 record behind Buchholz with a money line from -110 to -150. The Rays have dropped five straight post-season home games. Play this one on Boston.
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Tampa Bay Rays to get their first win of this post-season series... and they'll have to do it with one of their best pitchers on the mound.
For all the accolades David Price and Matt Moore have received this year, it's actually been Cobb who has been most consistent and able to keep opponents off balance deep into games.
But Joe Maddon isn't worried about that as much as he is his offense getting to Clay Buchholz in he early innings. Tampa's bats have clearly cooled a bit from where they were to end the season when they won 10 of 12. Now they are playing for their playoff lives.
But Cobb has been a big game pitcher all season and this game is no different. They called upon him to pitch the Wild Card game with Cleveland and though he got into some jams, Terry Francona showed enough faith in him to keep him in the game to get out of those jams.
Let's also not forget that Cobb hasn't personally tasted defeat in a long time, and if he wants to be mentioned in the same breath with David Price, he needs to deliver tonight.
It won't be pretty, but it'll be effective as the Rays get the much-needed win over the Red Sox in order to do that.
Take the Rays as your free play of the day.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Over in tonight's Jets-Falcons game.
Cannot ignore the recent Over trends these teams have been logging, as the Jets fly south having played Over the total in each of their last two games, while the Atlanta Falcons have played their last three games Over the total, and Mike Smith's team has followed a string of 7 straight Unders at home with a string of 4 straight Overs at the Georgia Dome (including the postseason).
New York comes in at 2-2, and after losses by the Bills on Thursday, and the Dolphins and Patriots yesterday, can gain some ground within the division, and Atlanta's defense has been fairly yielding 26 points per game.
Atlanta on the other hand stands at 1-3 this season, and is desperate for the win. The Falcons have averaged just over 23 ppg on offense, so let's look for the points to add up to an Over under the Monday night lights for the third straight Monday.
3♦ N.Y. JETS-ATLANTA OVER
Brad Wilton
Your free play winner for Monday is the Boston Red Sox to advance to the ALCS with the road win at Tampa Bay.
The Rays are down to their final bullet - nothing really new to them, as they have been playing elimination games for the better part of the past month and have been surviving. Not tonight!
Boston is 14-7 in the season series, and they have outslugged Tampa by a 16-9 in sweeping their pair of games in Beantown over the weekend.
Clay Buhholz takes on youngster Alex Cobb, and while Cobb has not lost a home decision this season, this is October and things tend to be a bit bigger this time of the year.
Buchholz has not allowed an earned run to Tampa in his 13 innings of worked versus them this season, and for his career against the Rays his ERA is in the low 2's.
Red Sox rolling right now, and the Rays appear to be just about out of gas.
Fear the Beard!
Boston to sweep Tampa Bay.
3♦ BOSTON
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the Over in the Atlanta Braves/Los Angeles Dodgers contest at Dodger Stadium, as these two will get into another marathon of a game.
Atlanta hands the ball to right-handed Freddy Garcia, who is making his first playoff start in eight years. That's not a typo. The last time he stepped on the hill to start in the postseason he fired seven scoreless innings for the White Sox in the clinching fourth game of the 2005 World Series. And while I know the Braves are entrusting his experience and a stellar September for this start, but he won't be able to contain the Dodgers' bats.
On the flipside, the Dodgers are going with Ricky Nolasco, who yes, beat the Braves while he was still with Miami earlier this season. But down the stretch over his last three starts of the season, he was tagged for 17 earned runs over 12 innings. And even though he hasn't started since Sept. 25, he says he's healthy and ready to go.
Let's play the Over in this one, as the Dodgers look to blast their way to a series-clinching win, and the Braves look to stay alive.
3♦ L.A. DODGERS
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Monday is on the St. Louis Cardinals to return the favor in Game 4 of the NLDS, and knot the series at 2 games apiece in a must-win situation, in Pittsburgh, against the series-leading Pirates. It's real simple, win or pack it in for the season, and I like the Redbirds to force a fifth and decisive game. This is very important, I want you to list Michael Wacha over Charlie Morton. If even one of these guys is scratched, this is a no-action play.
I like the way the Cardinals are thinking here, giving the nod to Wacha, over fellow rookie Shelby Miller, due to how dominant the young right-hander was in September. Wacha had a 1.72 ERA in five starts last month and took a no-hitter as far as 8-2/3 innings in his last one, a no-hit bid that fell short thanks to a bang-bang play at first base.
Morton, meanwhile, will be pitching on eight days' rest, as his last start was on Sept. 28. And while some might belive the extra rest might benefit him, after he yielded three runs in 4-1/3 innings, I think it could be trouble to see angry, hungry live hitters who are looking to stay alive in the playoffs.
Sorry, but I'm taking the road team in this one, as the Cardinals knot this series and force Game 5.
4♦ ST. LOUIS
Big Kat Sports
New Jersey vs. Edmonton
Take; Over 5.5
It looks like the same old Edmonton Oilers through the first two games of the 2013-2014 season. They are having no trouble scoring goals (6) but are having issues keeping the puck out of the net (11). This was supposed to be the year the Oilers finally broke through and made the playoffs but if they don’t change their defensive ways, it’ll be back to the drawing board in Edmonton. They have 2 goalies (Dubnyk/LaBarbera) that could be decent with a good set of D-Men in front of them but the goalies in Edmonton face a ton of shots and neither of these guys is Martin Brodeur by any stretch of the imagination. Speaking of Mr. Brodeur, he will be between the pipes tonight for New Jersey. It’ll be interesting to see how many starts Marty gets this season in a back-up role after the team traded for Cory Schneider on draft day but tonight he gets the call as the Devils announced they will start Schneider against Vancouver, his old team on Tuesday. The Oilers will counter with Jason LaBarbera, who will be making his first start of the season after Devan Dubnyk was shelled for 10 goals on 59 shots in the first two games of the season. We can’t see the Oilers making any drastic defensive system changes over night and Marty looked a bit rusty in his only start (4-3 shoot-out loss to the Islanders) so we’ll tab the OVER tonight in Edmonton as the Free Play, looking for the goal judges to get a work-out at Rexall Place.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
ATLANTA -10 over New York Jets: This is a bad spot for the Jets and their rookie QB. Tha Falcons have been struggling this year and took a bad home loss last week to the Patriots, but still we note that Matty Ice is 16-1 SU and 12-5 ATS at home off a loss, while Mike Smith is an amazing 16-0 ATS off a loss of 6 or more points. The Jets have surprised some this year, but this game will put rookie QB Geno Smith in a domed stadium, on national TV vs a team that is very desperate. Hurting the Jets is the fact that they also have no Santonio Holmes, plus they may be without TE Kellen Winslow. The Jets have very little offense in this one and will rely on their 2nd ranked defense to get the job done, but it will not be easy vs an Atlanta squad that is 6th in the league overall and 3rd in the league in passing. The Jets just don't nearly have enough offense to keep it close, especially since I expect Geno Smith to have a few mistakes in the hostile atmosphere. Atlanta by at least 2 TDs here.
Harry Bondi
Jets / Falcons Under 45
When the Jets play the Falcons, as they do in tonight's Monday nighter, the under is the way to go. Five of the last six matchups between these two teams have gone under the total and the Jets have been a dead under team with 5 of their last 6 games going under the posted total. Let's ride those trends tonight to another Free game winner!
Bruce Marshall
New Jersey vs. Edmonton
Pick: New Jersey
It’s been bumpy going for both New Jersey and Edmonton in the first week of the NHL season. But there seem to be a few more problems with the young Oilers, adjusting to a new regime led by GM Craig MacTavish and coach Dallas Eakins. Which has been reflected in some very disjointed efforts out of the gate that also featured poor goaltending from Devan Dubnyk, who has allowed 10 goals on 59 shots and was pulled in the second period in an eventual 6-2 loss to John Tortorella’s Canucks. The Devils have some new faces, too, but look a bit closer to hitting stride. Vet GK Martin Brodeur likely starts tonight at Rexall Place, with newly-acquired Cory Schneider slated to face his former team Vancouver tomorrow night.
Leonard Stratton
Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have their backs against the wall going into game 4 of the NLDS. After being crushed by the Dodgers 13-6 on Sunday night in LA the Braves will have to dig into their bag of tricks to win game 4 and get back to Turner Field for a deciding game 5.
The Braves have chosen to send veteran right handed pitcher Freddy Garcia to the mound tonight. This will be the first time Freddy has pitched in the postseason since he pitched in the World Series in 2005 for the Chicago White Sox. Garcia has been a huge help to the Braves rotation down the stretch. Over his last 19 innings pitched he has a 1-1 record with a 1.83 ERA.
The Dodgers have decided to go for the kill tonight and pitch Clayton Kershaw on three days of rest for the first time in his career! The scheduled starter for tonight was going to be Ricky Nolasco, but Don Mattingly has decided to use his ace to try to avoid a trip back to Atlanta. This will be the Braves second look at Kershaw this season, and don't expect the Atlanta bats to stay quiet this time. Its a sound managerial decision considering the Dodgers have Grinke ready to pitch a game 5 if needed.
If you combine the facts that this current lineup of Braves seem to be at their most dangerous when backed into a corner and this Dodger lineup can drop crooked numbers on ANY pitcher ANY inning, expect to see huge fireworks in LA tonight!
Factor in that this is an elimination game for Atlanta and that they can see Turner Field one more time if they pull off this win the slugfest will end up with the Braves coming out on top. The Braves are 14-4 on Monday games, 96-67 on games played on grass, 67-47 at night, 72-50 against right handed pitching, and 40-27 after a loss.