Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday October, 8

Sixth Sense

Houston -8 NY JETS 41.5

Houston would qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 510-328-23 if they are favored by seven or less points. Numbers favor Houston by 10.5 points and project about 41 points. The Jets are struggling and are extremely banged up at the receiver position and, of course, are playing without Revis at cornerback. If this line were to come down to -7 or lower I would make Houston a best bet. As it is, I will just lean their way. Houston has a much better defense and offense in this game. HOUSTON 26 NY JETS 13

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Houston Texans at New York Jets
Prediction: New York JetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jets (2-2) are probably facing their lowest point of the season right now after their 34-0 loss to San Francisco last week. The future looks even bleaker given the season-ending injuries to cornerback Derrelle Revis and wide receiver Santonio Holmes. Given all that, it may be very tempting for some to take Houston (4-0) as the road favorite given that many consider them the best team in football. Please go right ahead if that is your sentiment -- but I consider that Fool's Gold to lay more than a touchdown on a road team getting all this love from the media right now against a desperate team that everyone seems to be counting out. New York managed only a mere 145 yards of offense last week against the 49ers defense -- but they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after failing to generate at least 250 total yards in their last game. Additionally, the Texans are a mere 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 games played in the month of October. They look vulnerable to a flat performance in this one. Team trends are valuable in spots like this since they help expose the particularly personality of a group players. Under head coach Rex Ryan, the Jets tend to respond to adversity. The Jets plus the points is the smart play in this one.

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Saskatchewan at Toronto
Prediction: UnderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Saskatchewan (7-6) upset British Columbia by a 27-21 score last week as a 2.5-point favorite -- and they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total following a win. The Roughriders have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Saskatchewan has now played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Toronto (7-6) has now played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after their 29-10 win at Winnipeg where the Total was set at 50.5. The Argonauts have also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total played in the month of October. Take the Under in this one.

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Texans vs Jets
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The Jets know their best chance to spring the Monday upset is to grind it out, eat up as much click as they can and hope for a shot to win late. Non-explosive tempo likely both ways here, so I'll look for the Under to win.

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Nationals vs Cardinals
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The St Louis Cardinals look to even their series with the Nationals here on Monday after losing Sunday's game 1, 3-2. Your free play in tonight's game is on the OVER. The Nats are 6-1 Over/Under in their last seven road games and 8-4-1 overall in their last 13 games. Moreover, when Zimmermann starts, the Nationals have gone OVER in five of his last six starts. In this series, the OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and 5-2 in their last seven in St Louis. Zimmermann is 12-8 this year with a 2.94 ERA while Jaime Garcia is 7-7 with a 3.92 ERA. While game one of this series went UNDER, don't expect that here as the Cardinals should put forth a better offensive output. Take the over.

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Baltimore Orioles +125
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The Orioles are showing value in the home underdog role as they look to even the series. First off, Baltimore has been extremely reliable at home, where it has won 23 of its last 32. Secondly, it is on a 13-5 run when valued as an underdog. It is also worth noting that it is 6-1 in its last 7 games as a home underdog. Thirdly, the O's are 19-7 in their last 26 games following a loss. The Orioles are also 12-5 in Chen's last 17 starts as an underdog and 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home underdog. Take the O's on the money line.

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Washington Nationals -101
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The Washington Nationals hardly looked like postseason newcomers while grinding out a close win over the defending World Series champions in Game 1. They rallied for a 3-2 victory by scoring two runs in the eighth inning behind Tyler Moore's two-out, pinch-hit single.
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Relieved from getting their first win in their first playoff series since 1981, the Nationals can now relax a bit and feel a lot more comfortable in Game 2. I like their chances of improving to 2-0 in this series considering the edge they have on the mound tonight.
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Jordan Zimmerman is 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in 32 starts this season, including 7-5 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.172 WHIP in 16 road starts. Jamie Garcia is 7-7 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in 20 starts this season for the Cardinals.
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Garcia allowed six earned runs, two home runs and 11 base runners over 5 1/3 innings of a 1-8 loss at Washington in his lone start against the Nationals in 2012. Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, Jayson Werth and Michael Morse have four hits apiece off Garcia, going a combined 16 for 40 (.400). Bet the Nationals Monday.

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Washington +101 ver ST. LOUIS
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Losing a playoff game is one thing but losing in the fashion that the Cardinals lost last night is going to be difficult to rebound from. Up 2-1 in the bottom of the seventh, St. Louis loaded the bases with none out with its 4-5-6 hitters due up. They failed to score, Washington scored twice in the eighth and it was game over.
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As we’ve seen with both Detroit and Cincinnati, the game one winner has a big psychological edge heading into game two, knowing they’re coming home for three games with at least one win.
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From May 26th to September 15th, the Cardinals lost seven of Jaime Garcia’s eight starts. For most of the year, he has been the weakest link in the Cardinals rotation with a 4.41 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 44%/25% quality start/disaster start split. Garcia’s skills have dropped from stellar rookie season with less strikeouts. He’s also been hit hard by lefties.
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Jordan Zimmerman has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the game with full skills support. He has outstanding control, a good K rate and a groundball bias profile. He almost always gives the Nats a better chance of winning than losing. With Game 1 in the bag, the Nationals really have a chance to put a stranglehold on this series. All year they’ve answered the bell and this one should be no different.
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N.Y. JETS +8½ -105 over Houston
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Is this very best versus very worst? You’d be hard pressed to find Jets backers for this one and rightfully so with New York’s dismal offense and loss of its few viable players. It’s no secret that the Jets have many issues that are working against them here. However, this is the NFL where things are seldom as easy as they appear.
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Over the years, Monday Night Football is lined with road favorites that were supposed to win and cover easy but failed to do so. Oddsmakers are not fools. They know that all the money is going to come in on the Texans, yet they made Houston a smaller favorite than the G-Men and Niners yesterday when this one looks like a bigger mismatch than the aforementioned pair. They could have easily made the Texans a 10-point choice and not swayed a lot of bets.
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Chalk players will have an even greater sense of security here after a number of blowouts yesterday. Still, Texans laying big lumber, in Big Apple on a national stage, while hosting Packers next week is a situation we’ll cautiously fade. No units risked.

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St Louis -106FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Yesterday's win against the defending champs was a bit surprising. St. Louis surged into post-season play on a run of 13-4. Now the more experienced team, at home, evens up this series backed by the following numbers. Garcia had an injury plagued season. He has always been an outstanding pitcher from this mound. In last year's playoffs on this field he allowed 6 runs in 21 2/3 IP. His last 4 home starts have seen Garcia record a 1.61 ERA. Garcia also pitched in good form down the stretch with 2.10 ERA in his last 4 starts. Though Zimmerman finished the regular season strong as well, he has a very poor history against St. Louis. In 5 starts against the Cards, he has 9.12 ERA. Home team Bounce Back!!

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POWER ANGLE PLAY
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NY Jets/ Houston Over 40: Surprise!!! And Your Welcome Scotti ( I Hope LOL). anyway I see this game as going over. The Jets have been having major problems scoring and that Houston defense is one of the best in the league, yet the OU Line is still at 40 and it opened at 42. Hmmm makes ya think. Why is the OU line so high, when only on team can score? Well I see the NY offense breaking out a bit and putting some points on the board in this one. Mark Sanchez has struggled this year, but with all the talk in NY about them putting Tebow in I expect him to have a decent showing. Even if he doesn't then Ryan will most certainly insert Tebow and that will give this NY offense a jolt. Tebow is a completely different type of QB than Sanchez and having him in there my confuse this Houston defense just enough to get a at least a couple TD's. NY has offensive injuries, especially will Holmes out for the year, but they also have plenty of defensive injuries and that should allow this Houston offense that has averaged 31.5 ppg on the year. Houston is mostly about the run and the Jets allow 172 ypg on the ground, which once the run is established then the Texans will have some easy throwing lanes vs the depleted NY secondary. The obvious here is to take the Under, but the Jets will find a way to score, while the Houston offense will take aim at a weak defense and put points of their own on the board. Look for 45+ in this one. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play the Over in any game where the OU line is between 35.2 and 42 points an a team (Houston) outscores their opponents by 7+ points ppg and they are off a 21+ point win and facing a team that has been outscored by 3 to 7 ppg on the year. This play is 30-7 since 1983.
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NY Yanks -135 over BALTIMORE: Andy Pettite is excellent in the post season (19 wins) and he has simply owns this team, going 27-6 with a 3.52 ERA in 42 appearances (40 Starts) vs the O's and he has allowed 2 ER's or less in 7 of his last 8 starts vs them. Amazing numbers indeed. Andy has a solid start to his year, but was then injured. Well he came back just as strong, going 2-1 with a 1.62 ERA since his return from the DL. On the other side Wei-Yin Chen has not been hot of late, going 0-4 with a 5.04 ERA in his last 6 starts, plus he was just 1-2 with a 5.25 ERA in 4 starts vs the Yanks this year. The NY offense is hot right now, averaging 6.9 rpg in their last 10 games, while also posting 7.6 rpg in their last 5 games in this park. NY has the experience on post season ball on their side, that have a huge edge on the mound and their offense is playing very well right now. NY should head home with a 2-0 lead.

MLB Predictions

New York Yankees -132

As I mentioned the Yankees took a 1-0 lead in the series last night winning 7-2 with a big 9th inning. The Yankees will send the a;;-time leader in playoff victories, Andy Pettitte, to the mound tonight. Since returning from an ank;e injury in September Pettitte went 2-1 with a 1.62 ERA over three starts. On the year he is 5-4 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .232 opponents batting average. He hasn't faced Baltimore this year. Orioles have Wei-Yin Chen pitching, who has 12-11 with a 4.02 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .250 opponents batting average in his rookie season. In September he went 0-3 over 5 starts with a 5.90 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and .284 opponents batting average, but he did finish off with a quality start in Tampa Bay to end the season. New York has gotten to Chen this season, as he has faced them 4 times going 1-2 with a 5.25 ERA. Note that the Yankees are 8-2 in Pettitte's last 10 starts as a road favorite between -110 to -150, 37-14 in his last 51 starts overall, and 11-5 in his last 16 road starts. Also note that the Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 vs a lefty starter, while the Orioles are just 1-4 in their last 5 vs a left handed starter. The Yankees are 23-9 in their last 32 meetings in Baltimore, and 19-7 in Pettitte's last 26 starts vs the Orioles. The Orioles aren't going to rollover for the Yankees, but I like the veteran to out pitch the rookie tonight as the Yankees continue their success against Chen. Take New York to go up 2-0.

DR. BOB

Strong Opinion

The sky is falling and the Jets will never win another game! At least that’s what you’d think listening to all the so called experts on ESPN after the Jets lost 0-34 to the 49ers. People seem to forget that the Jets are actually a 2-2 team. Sure, they looked horrible last week but this seems like a major overreaction and they’re not the first team to play so horribly – and most tend to bounce right back. In fact, home underdogs of more than 3 points that lost the previous week by 24 points or more are 120-68-1 ATS. Pretty simple angle, and pretty damn profitable. Houston, meanwhile, is 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS and the Texans apply to an 83-168-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation. I know it’s tough to step in front of a team that looked great in every game they’ve played this season, but teams that start the season 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS are just 2-6-1 ATS in week 5 when favored by 7 points or more, so fear not. My math model favors Houston by 7½ points, so the line has been adjusted for the current state of these two teams and I’ll consider the Jets a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.

John Ryan

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

It was the first playoff game held in Baltimore?s beautiful Camden Yards since 1997 and for eight plus innings it was battle of wills between two bitter rivals, who split their 18-game regular season. Then came the ninth inning and the storied Yankee franchise got awake and took advantage of two badly located fastballs by Baltimore;s close Johnson, who led the majors with 52 saves in the regular season.

The one thing the Orioles have repeatedly shown is a resiliency like no other MLB team in the past decade. So many times, they have come to the brink of falling out of playoff contention and somehow they managed to get the hits they needed when it mattered most. Up till the last few weeks of the season, they posted a negative run differential and were never more than two games behind the powerhouse Yankees.

The Orioles are playing with house money and that is not say, well if they lose, all is still good. To the contrary, Buck Showalter, has this team playing extraordinarily well and do not think for a second this is going to be a three-game Yankees sweep. Buckwalter may say the right things to the media about the incredible season the Orioles have put together, but you can bet he is talking a different story behind the closed doors of the locker room.

The Yankees having won Game 1, now have the luxury of pitching Andy Pettitte, who has come out of retirement to possibly add to his all-time records with 19 playoff wins and 42 playoff starts. Counter this extraordinary experience is Orioles starter Wei-Yin Chen, who is making his MLB playoff debut.

Andy Pettitte missed nearly three months after taking a line drive batted ball off of his left leg, which is the plant leg for left-handed pitchers. He has made three strong starts in his return posting a 1.62 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 16 ⅔ innings of work. Chen has posted a 4.24 ERA and a 1.471 WHIP spanning 17 innings in his last three starts.

I normally never mention umpiring as a factor in a game, but with Angel Hernandez behind the plate tonight, you can assured the starters will be working the corners and getting calls that appear to be marginally out of the strike zone. In 33 games he has called this season, teams have batted just .238 with a .296 on-base-percentage. The average score in his games has averaged 7.4 runs per game. This ?expanded? strike zone will be an added advantage for Chen as he is prone to periods of decreased command of his pitches.

Chen has three very good pitches. He will throw fastball 65% of the time and it will max out at 95 MPH with the four-seem version. His two-seamer has strong and late movement and since he is left-handed will ride in and under the hands of a left-handed batter making it very difficult to hit. he will use a very effective changeup against right-handed batters and I expect A-Rod to have trouble with Chen?s combination of a 90+ fastball in on his hands and then trying to hit a 84 MPH change.

Here is a system that has gone 113-64 for 64% winners and has made 52.4 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and is an average offensive team scoring 4.5 runs per game on the season and is starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest and is now facing a good starting pitcher posting an ERA of 4.20 or less on the season. This system has been a solid 26-12 and has made 15.5 units per one unit wagered this season.

Here is a second system that has gone 54-26 for 68% winners and has made 27.3 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games and with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last five games.

It all adds up to seeing resiliency at it?s best. The Orioles team respect Andy Pettitte and what he has achieved, but come game time they will not be thinking anything else than how to get hits, score runs, and play solid defense - for the 164th time this season. Take the Orioles.