Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, September 1

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAF

Miami (FL) at Louisville
The Cardinals open the season with their first ACC game in school history and face a Miami team that they defeated 36-9 in last year's Russell Athletic Bowl. Louisville is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-3)

Game 209-210: Miami (FL) at Louisville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 92.311; Louisville 97.730
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 5 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Louisville by 3; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-3); Over

CFL

Toronto at Hamilton
The Tiger-Cats host a Toronto team today that is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 road games. Hamilton is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has Hamilton favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+2)

Game 285-286: Toronto at Hamilton (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 110.230; Hamilton 114.585
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 4 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Toronto by 2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+2); Under

Game 287-288: Edmonton at Calgary (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 116.615; Calgary 124.502
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 8; 56
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5; 50
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-5); Over

WNBA

Indiana at Chicago
The Sky look to even up the series as the host an Indiana team that is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 Monday games. Chicago is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2)

Game 607-608: Indiana at Chicago (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 108.500; Chicago 114.028
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 5 1/2; 151
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Over

EZWINNERS

Miami Hurricanes +3

Its not often that you open up a season against the team that you played in your bowl game, but that is exactly what we have in this match up. Miami got their asses kicked in the Russell Athletic Bowl last year 36-9 and I'm sure that stinging loss is still fresh in the Hurricanes mind. Louisville has a new head coach as Bobby Petrino returns after Charlie Strong moved on to Texas. Star quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has also moved on to the NFL. Louisville also loses seven starters on what was a pretty strong defensive unit. Not only will Louisville have a new quarterback under center, but he will be without the Card's top wide receiver senior Davante Parker who is out with a broken toe. Miami will go with true freshmen Brad Kaaya at quarterback, but he will also get a boost with the return of running back Duke Johnson who missed the Canes last three games of the season last year with an ankle sprain. This has been a money making spot for Miami head coach Al Golden who is 22-6-2 against the spread as a conference underdog. Take the points.

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres -153

The Padres have a solid pitching edge in this game with T. Ross over T. Cahill. Ross has a superb 1.90 home era and has won 6 of his 7 day starts. He has a solid 2.63 era vs Arizona and has won 6 of his last 8 starts. Cahill is 1-4 on the road with a 5.71 era. he has dropped 5 of 6 vs N.L. West teams. Arizona has lost 20 of 30 when the total is 7 or less and has lost 10 of 13 on Monday. San Diego fits a solid league wide system that plays on home favorites with a total that is 8 or less and is off a home dog loss and scored 2 or less runs, vs an opponent like Arizona that is off a home win. These teams have won over 80% of the time.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

This is the Penthouse vs the Outhouse or Best in the conference against the worst. The Brewers are tied for first with the Cardinals after losing five straight and eight of their last 10. Meanwhile, Chicago has lost two and sits 12 1/2 back in last place in the division. Jimmy Nelson starts for the Brewers with a 2-5 mark and 4.10 ERA. While Nelson isn't winning many games, he's pitched decent, allowing three runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts. Nelson also has 45 KO's on the seaso against just 15 walks, a 3:1 ratio. Jacob Turner gets the start for the Cubs. Turner came over from Miami in August and in three appearances for the Cubs has allowed four earned runs over eight innings. But overall Turner has a high 1.60 WHIP in 22 total appearances and 12 starts this season. Nothing better to stop a slump then the Cubbies and that's just the medicine that the Brewers need here on Monday.

Bruce Marshall

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
Pick: Cleveland Indians -1.5

Cleveland is making a move in the AL Central and was unfortunate not to get the 3-game weekend sweep at Kansas City, as heavy rains and thunder caused last night's game to be suspended with the Tribe up 4-2 in the bottom of the tenth inning. That one resumes later this month In the meantime, in this primo pitching matchup, we back Cleveland's Corey Kluber, who has a 1.48 ERA over his last eight starts and beat the Tigers 6-2 on July 19 in his last meeting against them. Lately he has also been outpitching ballyhooed Detroit trade deadline acquisition David Price, who was routed (eight runs and twelve hits in 2 IP!) by the Yankees in his last outing on August 27, the third time in his last four starts that the Tigers have lost.

Jesse Schule

Rangers at Royals
Pick: Under

The Royals were the hottest team in baseball for most of August, but they sure cooled off in the final few days of the month. Kansas City is coming off four straight home losses, and the bats have gone quiet during that span. The host Texas tonight, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a low scoring affair here. Colby Lewis will toe the rubber for the Rangers, and he's been surprisingly good on the road. Lewis (9-11, 5.44 ERA) went the distance in a win at Seattle his last time out, and he's 7-3 with a 3.69 ERA overall away from home. The Royals hand the ball to Yordano Ventura, who missed his last start due to back stiffness. He's been very solid of late, and Kansas City has won eight of his last 10 starts. His most recent outing was a win at Texas, holding the Rangers to one run over six innings. These two teams have pushed the total over just once in the last 12 head to head meetings.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Ben Burns

Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers +104

This is the marquee series of the week and a potential NLCS preview with the Dodgers hosting Washington. I like the home team to take Monday's series opener.

I played against the Nationals yesterday as they lost up in Seattle. They'd previously won 14 of 18 games, but there were several close calls in there and they have come back down to Earth since winning 10 in a row, which included seven one-run victories. They were actually swept in Philadelphia last week.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, avoided what would have been a sweep with a win in San Diego yesterday. Both of their losses in the series came by one run, each in extra innings. So it looks like maybe the "luck" is going to turn for both teams in the interim. I like that Los Angeles is coming off a solid offensive performance as well, scoring 7 runs in the win Sunday.

Also making the case against Washington tonight is the fact their starter Gio Gonzalez has not won in some time, July 5th in fact. He's 0-5 (3-6 TSR) with a 4.38 ERA in nine starts since.

Roberto Hernandez has been surprisingly solid for LA in four starts since being traded from Philadelphia. Also, in his final start as a member of the Phillies, he faced Washington and allowed just one unearned run in eight innings. He's made eight straight starts without giving up more than three runs.

Jonathan Jorcin

Phillies vs. Braves
Play: Under 6½

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves send 2 hot pitchers to the hill in this day time matchup. The Atlanta Braves have been playing really good baseball behind a pitching staff that has tossed a 2.87 ERA in the past 16 games. Their bullpen has allowed just 4 runs in the last 38 innings played. Most pitchers in baseball are an anomaly, and pitch better on the road, but Julio Teheran has been phenomenal behind a 1.95 ERA and 5-2 record at Turner Field. Teheran is 3-0 with a 1.97 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Philadelphia offense is no offense to fear, and will score very few points, and considering Teheran’s 2-0 record and 0.75 ERA, expect the same.

While the Phillies will lack scoring, plating runs for the Braves will also be a challenge with Cole Hamels in for the Phillies. He has been very dominant against the Braves. Firstly, in his last 10 starts he is 5-1 with a 2.07 ERA and owns an even better 3-0 and 1.16 ERA in his last 3 games versus the Braves. He has allowed 1 run in 14 innings in his last 2 games versus the Braves, while allowing 2 walks and 15 strikeouts. The Phillies are 5-1-2 for the under in the last 8 games in which Hamels starts. The Braves are 3-0-2 for the under in the last 5 games in which Teheran starts. Take the under 6 ½.

Art Aronson

Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -139

I like the Orioles to earn a home sweep here over the Twins. Minnesota turns to Phil Hughes (14-9, 3.70 ERA), who allowed four runs to Kansas City in a 6-1 road loss that ended his four-start winning streak last week; note that the right-hander is only 2-2 with a pedestrian 5.88 ERA in seven career starts at Camden Yards. Baltimore counters with Kevin Gausman (7-6, 3.84 ERA) who will be looking to bounce back from his shortest outing of the year after giving up three runs over four innings in a 3-1 home loss to Tampa Bay; note though that the right-hander hasn't allowed more than three runs in nine of his last 10 starts, going 4-4 with a respectable 3.83 ERA in the process. Gausman has to be liking his chances here, note that the Orioles have averaged 7.3 runs while hitting .328 during a four-game winning streak to increase their division lead to nine games over the Yankees. Baltimore is also 6-2 versus the Twins in Camden Yards the last three seasons. Conversely, the Twins come in struggling having lost eight of nine overall. I think Gausman is worth the price of admission here, how about you?

Art Aronson's Featured Package

DAVE COKIN

DETROIT TIGERS AT CLEVELAND INDIANS
PLAY: CLEVELAND INDIANS -113

There’s no such thing as an easy call against David Price. The lefty is one of the best in the game and he can be really difficult off the bad start, as is the case today. But Price draws a terrific opponent here as Indians ace Corey Kluber takes the hill for what is truly a critical series opener.

Price and Kluber breaks down almost dead even. The numbers are very close, so there’s no real advantage to be had on the starting pitching here. But the similarities pretty much end there.

The Tigers are simply not a good baseball team at the present time. The offense is being severely hindered with the apparent injury-induced slump that’s afflicting Miguel Cabrera. It’s the second straight season Miggy has broken down late in the season, and the bad news for the Tigers is that this latest problem is likely going to cause Cabrera to miss several games this September. This is a team that has to win with starting pitching and offense, as the bullpen has been a horror show all season. But the rotation has taken some significant hits and now the offense isn’t nearly as daunting as it was previously.

As for the Indians, they’re not much against lefties, and that has to be a concern of sorts here. But the Tribe is on a roll right now and manager Terry Francona is managing his bullpen as if it’s already the playoffs rather than the regular season. I think that’s a real plus, even on days when it doesn’t work out. Make no mistake, I see Francona’s September experience and success for the most part as a definite plus for the Tribe over this final month of the campaign.

As for today’s game, I won’t call it an overwhelming edge, but I do think there’s more to like about the Indians than the Tigers. The biggest key might well be the momentum factor. The Indians are off a really good weekend at Kansas City that got them very much back into the AL Central race, and they should take the field with loads of confidence. The Tigers, meanwhile, were only able to salvage a split against the lowly White Sox and I don’t see the lack of big game experience for manager Brad Ausmus as anything other than a potential liability. There certainly is not a problem with the current price here, so I’ll be siding with Kluber and the Indians to capture this crucial series opener.

Nick Parsons

Miami vs. Louisville
Play: Under 54

I am playing this game under the total. Both teams will going with new quarterbacks to start the season. Miami announced Sunday that they have suspended their projected starter for the game and will be going with true freshman Brad Kaaya.

Louisville, on the other hand, will be trying to replace do everything quarterback and NFL No. 1 draft pick Teddy Bridgewater. Will Gardner will get the start for the Cardinals. Not only does Gardner have the pressure of replacing the aforementioned Bridgewater, but he will have to try and tame new coach Bobby Petrino's very complicated offense.

Miami is returning eight starters to the defensive side of the ball, and will put pressure on Louisville's new quarterback. Given this fact and Gardner getting acclimated to the new offensse, I see Louisville having problems scoring. Miami doesn't have it easy either breaking in a new quarterback so I see a low scoring game between two struggling offenses.

Harry Bondi

LOUISVILLE (-3) over Miami

So many questions in this game between now ACC rivals. Louisville sophomore QB Will Gardner takes over for Teddy Bridgewater and he was outstanding during the spring game and in fall camp but tonight it's for real. Will Will hold up? He has a pair of outstanding running backs to hand off to in Dominique Brown and former Auburn star Michael Dyer. He also had one of the best receivers in the country to throw to in DeVante Parker but he broke his foot last weekend and out for the next two months! How much with the Cardinal offense miss him? On the other side of the ball, Miami will be without starting safety Rayshawn Jenkins and most importantly their top two quarterbacks. So they start true freshman Brad Kaaya, who beat out former BYU and Kansas QB Jake Heap in fall camp. How will the talented true freshman fair in his first college start on the road? There also is the revenge angle for Miami who was thumped by Louisville 36-9 in last years bowl game. But we discount the revenge angle here with so many injuries, coaching changes and question marks for both teams. We will back the home team with the more experienced QB and take Louisville.

Sleepyj

Miami / Louisville Under 54

Tonight we get a clash of two ACC rivals on prime time. Both of these teams are pretty even keel here and really can't give one the nod here tonight. We have two young QB's here with little experience and will be looking to manage the game on both sides. The strength of this Hurricane team has to be RB Duke Johnson. The Hurricanes had a pretty intense QB battle and i highly doubt the Hurricanes will lean on a new QB. They would much rather go to Duke Johnson to move the chains and get this young QB Brad Kaaya comfortable here. Johnson is coming off a leg injury and sat out most of the spring. I'm a little concerned about his mindset and how he will run the ball after a great deal of time off. All in all i think this Miami offense will play the game to win, but not to lose by making mistakes. I can see a game managing type of game here. The Miami defense has speed and are always deep on the back end. Same goes for Louisville. I think we will see the focus here tonight on defense as we move along in this game. Louisville on the other hand is in the same situation at QB as Miami. They start a new QB this year and will look to get this comfortable here at home. Obviously, we expect both teams and QB's to have jitters. QB Will Gardner will get the starting job here for the Cardinals. It wasn't as much of a competition here for Gardner like it was for Miami, but his roll here was very limited as Teddy Bridgewater was the QB on this team. Gardner saw little action with the Cardinals team. He was said to have good decision making and executed the offense. That tells me they are walking this kid along here. I really don't expect either team to step out of the box here tonight and pretty much take whats givin. Both teams will rely on the run tonight. Jitters will prove once again that it will take some time to get comfortable with both teams on offense. Look again here for dropped passes and some timing issues. I think this one will be a rather boring game that struggles to get out of the 40's if it even gets there.

Jeff Clement

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres -163

Arizona is 0-6 last 6 road games and 4-9 last 13 Cahill starts. The Padres are 9-0 last 9 home games as a favorite and 5-0 last 5 Ross home starts. The Padres will be back at home after taking 2 of 3 games from the Dodgers and with Ross on the mound I expect a win tonight.