Dave Price
San Diego Padres -153
The Padres have been worth the price lately, going 11-1 in their last 12 games as a favorite and 9-0 in their last nine as a home fave. They've been a solid investment in this price range for years, going 59-20 in their last 79 as a favorite of -151 to -200. They are in good hands with Ross on the rubber. The right-hander has a 1.90 ERA in 14 home starts this season, and the Padres are 5-0 in his last five home starts. It's been a rough season for Arizona's Cahill, who has a 5.71 ERA in 12 starts. The Diamondbacks are 1-5 in Cahill's last six starts as a road underdog.
Will Rogers
Washington vs. LA Dodgers
Pick: LA Dodgers
The Dodgers are an underdog at home tonight, hosting Washington in Game 1 of this series at Chavez Ravine. They snapped a four game losing skid with a win in San Diego last night, and I think they might just bring that momentum back home with them.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Dodgers turn to Roberto Hernandez, who has performed well while filling a spot in the rotation. Hernandez has dominated the Nats this season, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two previous starts. He was 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA in five starts last month. The Nats hand the ball to former ace Miguel Gonzalez, who hasn't been quite as sharp this season. He's win-less in his last nine starts.
2. History - Perhaps traveling across the country has something to do with it, but the Nats have lost 19 of their last 22 at Dodgers Stadium.
3. X-Factor - The Dodgers have won nine of their last 11 versus teams from the NL East, and the Nats have lost four straight when Gonzalez starts on the road.
David Banks
Louisville -3
The Louisville Cardinals have made the jump this year from the fledging AAC to the ACC, meaning that this is one of the few conference games on the Week 1 schedule as the Cards host the Miami Hurricanes Monday in the first ACC game in school history at 8:00 ET on ESPN. Louisville comes off of an 11-1 regular season last year, although the loss did come here at home at Papa John's Stadium to UCF. Miami finished 9-3 during the regular season in 2013 with all three losses coming inside the ACC (5-3). This is also a rematch of the Russell Athletic Bowl last December in which Louisville dismantled the Canes 36-9.
Still, there are quite a few red flags in place for the Cardinals here to suggest that this contest will be nothing like that bowl game, and that this should be a tight hard-fought affair with an outright Miami upset not at all out of the question. After all, the major architect of Louisville's success the last couple of years now plays for the Minnesota Vikings of the NFL in Teddy Bridgewater, who was one of the all-time great quarterbacks in school history. Trying to follow in those huge footsteps will be sophomore Will Gardner, who has the size (6-foor-5, 226 pounds) and the arm strength to succeed, but lacks big-time experience and draws a seemingly tough first assignment vs. a Miami secondary that returns all four starters from last year. Furthermore, the Cardinals will be without senior wide receiver DeVante Parker for six to eight weeks following surgery on a broken toe, giving young Gardner one less reliable target to throw to. Now yes, the Louisville defense ranked second in the country last year in scoring defense allowing 12.2 points per game, trailing only the national champions from Florida State. However, how much of that had to do with facing a weaker AAC schedule? After all, UCF may have been the best team the Cardinals faced all year and Louisville allowed 38 points and 446 total yards in the loss.
Miami had it best season of the Coach Al Golden era last year, and even though the Hurricanes lost four of their last six games including the bowl game after a 7-0 start that had them ranked seventh in the country, all of those defeats came after running back Duke Johnson was lost for the year with an ankle injury. Johnson had 920 rushing yards on 6.3 yards per carry with six touchdowns in seven games, and he returns healthy for this season. Granted the Canes are going with a freshman quarterback in Brad Kaaya, who beat out senior Jake Heaps for the job, but the presence of Johnson and also top receivers Stacy Coley and Phillip Dorsett should make the quarterback transition easier. The defense is experienced as it returns seven starters in all including the entire secondary as mentioned, including All-American senior linebacker Denzel Perryman, who led Miami in tackles a year ago.
Miami went 5-0 ATS in September last season including an outright upset of the Florida Gators. Louisville is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
Wunderdog
New York vs. Miami
Pick: New York +122
The Miami Marlins have certainly made a lot of progress, and while they have kept themselves around the wildcard race in the NL, they have slipped to 6.5 games behind, and are fading quickly. The story may have been different if Jose Fernandez didn't go down with an injury early on. The Mets have played better at 18-19 over their last 37 games, and one reason is today's starting pitcher, Zack Wheeler. Wheeler was 3-8 back in late June with a 4.45 ERA, but has really matured into a bonafide starter, evening his record at 9-9 on the season while lowering his ERA to 3.44. Wheeler has come up big having allowed two runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts, and he has become quite the stopper leading the Mets to a 5-0 mark in his last five starts following a team loss. Play on New York.
SPORTSWAGERS
Philadephia 1st 5 innings +120 over ATLANTA
The Braves’ offense has been hot and cold for two months running and cannot be trusted in this price range against Cole Hamels. At home against the Marlins the past two games, Atlanta scored 1 run and that includes being shut out by Jared Cosart over seven innings. Hamels has gone 17 consecutive starts where he has allowed three earned runs or less. In two starts versus Atlanta this season, he has allowed just one earned run in 14 innings, throwing a true gem both times. Hamels has been outstanding on the road all season, where he owns a 1.74 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 12 starts. Last time out, he was pulled after just 84 pitches, so he should be fresh coming into this start. He was pulled because he went seven full in those 84 pitches. Cole Hamels is one of the top five pitchers in the game but for whatever reason, he’s been undervalued practically the entire year. We see another example of that here and it’s not like the Phillies can’t win a game either. Philly has won 7 of its past 10, which includes a three-game sweep over Washington prior to facing the Mets this past weekend.
Julio Teheran has won three straight while posting a 1.47 ERA over that span. Don’t buy it. Those three wins came against three struggling teams in Cincinnati, the Mets and Oakland. Truth is, Teheran’s skills have been declining for 7 straight weeks. Over that span, covering his last 10 starts, he has an xERA of 4.77. Teheran’s groundball/fly-ball split on the season was pedestrian to begin with at 35%/45% but over his last 10 it’s turned ugly at 31%/55%. We’re also seeing a significant dip in strikeouts, where Teheran has whiffed just 19 over his past 32 innings. Yesterday we talked about Scott Kazmir running on fumes and right on cue, Kazmir didn’t make it out of the second inning yesterday. We’re seeing a lot of the same characteristics or skills decline in Teheran as we saw in Kazmir and while we’re not suggesting he’ll get knocked out in the second, we are suggesting that he’s way overpriced, that he's running on fumes and that he cannot be this big a favorite over Hamels. Let’s take the pens out of the equation here.
N.Y. Mets +109 over MIAMI
Henderson Alvarez’s surface stats are one of the most misleading among all starting pitchers. Alvarez is 10-6 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. How can that be? Here’s a guy that has struck out just 97 batters in 157 innings. Indeed he has outstanding control but the fact that he doesn’t miss many bats reveals that all those balls in play are being hit right at people. Alvarez’s 7% swing and miss rate support his low strikeout total and it should be noted that in his last start his swing and miss rate was 4%. In 25 starts, he has just 14 pure quality starts so it’s obvious he’s at the mercy of his defense. Don’t get us wrong, Alvarez does have a strong groundball tilt and outstanding control so he’s usually able to keep his teams in games and win more games than he loses. However, he’s not as good as his surface stats suggest, which makes him an overvalued commodity. That makes us sellers.
Then there’s Zach Wheeler. Wheeler is nearly unblemished in four starts versus the Marlins this season. Each start has resulted in a gem, where he is 2-0 with a 0.65 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 10.1 K’s/9 in 27.2 IP. He has shown excellent skills growth in his second MLB season, especially with keeping the ball on the ground (54% GB% in 2014, 43% in 2013). Wheeler has become an impact starter. In his last start he was as flawless as it gets with an 82% groundball rate and 0% line-drive rate. His only blemish is his walk total, which shows 65 BB in 160 innings. If he can improve upon that, he’s going to be a Cy Young candidate for years to come and one of the true rotation anchors in the game. Wheeler plus a tag against Alvarez and the cooling off Marlins (3-7 over their past 10) gets the call here.
CHICAGO +127 over Milwaukee
The Brewers are going bad. They have lost five straight while being outscored by an incredible 38-11 over that span. They are coming off back-to-back series in San Diego and San Fran in which their relief pitching posted an ERA of 9.60 over 15 innings. What that does is force the manager to leave the starter in longer than he would normally do and the results usually end up being disastrous. Jimmy Nelson has just nine starts this season and is 2-5 with an ERA of 4.10. Nelson does have upside but he’s now pitching under immense pressure in the midst of a serious team slump during a late pennant race. With a good fastball/slider combination, Nelson started last season in Double-A and ended it in the majors. This season he has been at the Triple A level and majors but he has some issues that have prevented him from sticking around for more than a cup of coffee. Strikeouts have been plentiful at each stop, but a high-effort delivery has led to control problems and lots of base-runners at every level. He’s best watched from afar for now and is too big a risk spotting a price on the road with a reeling club.
Meanwhile, the Cubbies are having fun. Chicago is primed to be a serious contender for years to come in the very near future and we’re seeing signs of it now. Loaded with young talent and gaining confidence, Chicago is not a team these contenders want to run into right now. The Cubbies have won 9 of their past 15 games. In their last series at home, they swept the Orioles in a three-game set. They’re scoring runs and they’re enjoying playing the role of the spoiler. Newcomer Jacob Turner makes just his second start since being acquired from Miami. Turner did not have a good outing in his first start in a Cubs uniform, lasting only 3.2 innings while allowing seven hits and three earned runs. He will look to turn things around here against a Brewers team he faced on May 24, throwing 6.1 shutout innings. His skill set says he deserves better than his 5.84 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. We’ve always liked this guy. He has an elite groundball rate of 58% and one of the nastiest sliders in the game. For whatever reason, Turner has struggled at this level but he has to be rejuvenated going to a team with all this potential. Turner has been hurt by a very low strand rate of 64% but this former 1st round pick has the pedigree and stuff to change things around quickly and it would come as no surprise if that occurred here.
SPORTSWAGERS
Toronto +100 over HAMILTON
The Argos opened as a slight favorite in this one. Subsequently, some breaking news out of Hamilton inspired a change of heart by the sportsbooks, which now sees the Tiger-Cats as the slight favorite. The first bit of news that came across the wire was that Hamilton QB Zach Collaros would be ready to go for the first time since Week 2 when he suffered a concussion. The second story of course, is that the City of Hamilton has approved the use of Tim Hortons Field for the Labour Day Classic. The documentation was completed less than 18 hours before the scheduled 1 p.m. kickoff after City inspectors spent much of Sunday making sure the facility met the necessary requirements. It's good for just 12 hours, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Monday. The new facility’s capacity is 24,000 and if enough people make the trip from surrounding areas (and there is a lot of them, including Toronto, which is roughly 65 km east of Hamilton), the joint will be sold out. If not, about 20,000 are expected.
That’s all good for the city but a struggling team playing on a surface they haven’t even practiced in yet can’t be considered beneficial. The nuances of the new stadium will be as much of an intangible to the home team as it will to the visitors. Furthermore, we also have to wonder of the return of Zach Collaros will hurt the Ti-Cats more than it will help them. Collaros has been out for almost two months. As Hamilton’s starting QB, he went 0-2 with the Tabbies being outscored 59-34. Collaros completed just 23 of 41 passes for 212 yards while Dan LeFevour completed 101 passes in 149 attempts for 1241 yards in the last seven games. Sitting for eight weeks, a rusty and unproven Zach Colloras may not even be an upgrade. Hamilton’s lone win this season occurred against the lifeless Redblacks. Its next easiest opponent was Winnipeg, a game they lost 27-26 but were outgained by over 200 yards. The past two weeks, the Ti-Cats played decent but still lost in British Columbia and at home to Calgary because their defense couldn’t come up with any big stops at crucial times. Hamilton has been able to move the ball very effectively over the past three weeks and now they’re making a QB switch for no reason that makes any sense. Dan LeFevour was the only reason they were in those games. The Tiger-Cats need a change on defense, not at QB.
Meanwhile, the Argonauts are the class of the East with the highest rated QB in the game in Ricky Ray. The Argos trailed Edmonton last week, 31-10 at the half but a furious second half rally put them in a position to win it. In the end a late pick-six made the final score 41-27 but it was closer than that final score reveals. Since losing their opening game in Winnipeg, Toronto has outgained eight of their past nine opponents. That includes Saskatchewan twice and Calgary once. Every week, the Argos get their yards and opportunities to score and with a couple of tweaks inside the red zone, they have the potential to put up 35 or more every week. Ricky Ray is the most accurate passer this league has ever seen. It seems like he hits his receiver’s right in the numbers every time. Toronto is 3-6 but could easily be 5-4. This Labour Day Classic between Hamilton and Toronto has produced some of the best games in the history of the CFL and certainly some of the most exciting too. In that respect, it’s like Big Brother in that you can “expect the unexpected”. No result would surprise but if we’re sticking to our theory of playing value, we get the better QB for sure and the better defense for sure while the Tiger-Cats are putting in a cold QB in a new stadium in an attempt to change the course of its 1-6 start. It likely won’t work.
NOTE: We’re passing on Calgary/Edmonton. At the time of this writing, Eskies QB Mike Reilly was still questionable and Edmonton has still not revealed who their starting QB will be. When that news is released the line may change and we’re not about to make any assumptions regarding either.
SPORTSWAGERS
Miami +150 over LOUISVILLE
The Hurricanes are a dark horse to win the ACC and this opening week game can set the tone for the men of Miami. The Hurricanes are a team that very quietly won nine games last year. In fact, the ‘Canes have assembled an incredible defense robust with blue-chip recruits. The question is whether the talent will translate and if it does, Miami will once again implore its signature blend of defense on the college football universe. The x-factor in this match-up is Duke Johnson. The Duke is one of the best running backs in college football and has gone unjustifiably unrecognized. Johnson returns from a broken ankle injury which sidelined him for the remainder of the 2013 season. Nevertheless, in eight games, Johnson managed to put up remarkable numbers: 145 carries, 920 yards, 6 rushing TDs. When Johnson played in 2013, the Hurricanes were 7-1. The sole defeat coming in the contest with Florida State where Johnson suffered the injury. Louisville's defense is suspect and the central piece of the Cardinal offense is wide-receiver Davonte Parker, who is out with a broken toe. Additionally, the replacement for Teddy Bridgewater remains a nebulous void in the offense and starter Will Gardner will be tested immediately against a vicious Hurricane attack.
With Parker out, Kai De La Cruz will be stepping in to the role as the "X" wide receiver. De La Cruz is primarily a specialist on return teams but he did manage to accumulate three receiving touchdowns in 2013. De La Cruz (15 rec, 271 yards, 3 TD) along with Eli Rogers (44 rec, 536 yards, 4 TD) comprise an excellent set of receivers but Louisville’s primary focus on offense figures to be the duo of senior running backs. The Cardinals lost Sinorise Perry but they still have both senior rushers Dominique Brown and Auburn transfer Michael Dyer (the freshman sensation, that was part of the 2010-11 championship team) to lead the way for Louisville. Thing is, the Canes have an answer with one of the best run stoppers and linebackers in America in Denzel Perryman. Perryman was a 2013 All-ACC First Team Selection, 2013 All-American Honorable Mention by Sports Illustrated, 2013 Miami Defensive MVP and he even received the Hard Hitter Award too. In a game in which the dog has at least as good a chance of winning and probably a better chance, we’ll pass on the points and take the ‘Canes straight up.
Jeff Scott Sports
Louisville/ Miami Under 54: Big surprise, huh? I know I have used the inexperienced card for much of week 1, but this is really the week to use it and I will look to again and in this case it really relates to the QBs. In last years bowl game there were just 45 points scored and that was with two experienced QB's on the field. Now Miami is throwing a freshman QB out there, while Louisville have a sophomore QB, who threw just 12 passes last year. With all that inexperience at QB I really look for both teams to turn to their strong running games. Miami comes in with Duke Johnson, who is just a beast and leads a ground attack that is rated 13th best in the nation and will be running behind an OL that is rated 17th best in the nation. For Louisville, not only do they have a rather green QB, but are are missing who just may be the best WR in the league in DeVante Parker. The should look to run as well especially with a solid corps of RBs and behind the 19th rated OL in the nation. Louisville does have some rebuilding to do on defense, but they do have some solid players returning and have recruited nicely on this side of the ball. They won't allow 12.2 ppg like they did last year, but still can't see them giving up more than 20 ppg this year. For the Miami defense they remember the number 554. That's how much yards the Louisville Cardinals put up on this defense last year in the bowl game and with 30 lettermen, including 7 starters back from that group, you can bet they will be looking for a much better defensive showing in this one. Two green QB's two solid running games vs a solid defense and a much improved one looking for payback should keep this game in the 40s at best.
Bob Balfe
Dodgers +105
Both pitchers have been pretty good this year, but the Nationals magical run of all those wins in a row is slowly fading away. This is a great team, but in that run got very lucky being on the right end of all the walk of games. Its obviously better to be lucky then good sometimes, but they are facing a very tough Dodgers team that hits left handed pitching well. Take the Dodgers.
Michael Alexander
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres -163
Ross made his franchise-record 13th straight quality start last Tuesday, when he held Milwaukee to one run over 6 1/3 innings. The All-Star has a 2.57 ERA in seven career games (six starts) against Arizona. Cahill’s string of five consecutive quality starts came to an end last Tuesday as he allowed eight runs (six earned) over 3 1/3 innings against the Dodgers. Cahill, who is 2-3 in eight career games (seven starts) against the Padres.
Steve Janus
Miami Marlins -119
This is a great spot to take the Marlins as a small home favorite against the Mets. Miami will be sending out Henderson Alvarez, who despite a couple of rough starts the last two times out has a 2.75 ERA over 25 starts. The key thing about his poor performance of late is that both of those starts came on the road. Alvarez has taken his game to a whole different level at home. He's 6-2 with a dominant 1.46 ERA and 1.012 WHIP over 12 home starts. Alvarez has faced the Mets twice at home this season and has yet to give up a run, allowing just 13 hits with 0 walks and 12 strikeouts over 15 1/3 innings of work.
Key Trends/System - New York is 2-9 in their last 11 games after allowing 2 runs or less, 1-6 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 1-5 in Wheelers' last 6 starts after scoring 5+ runs last time out. Miami is 7-1 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series, 10-1 in Alvarez's last 11 home starts and a perfect 6-0 in his last 6 home starts against a team with a losing record. Add it up and that's a 43-6 (88%) system telling us to BET THE MARLINS -119!
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers +110
The Detroit Tigers (74-62) are just 1/2-game behind the Kansas City Royals for first place in the AL Central. They are also holding onto a slim 1/2-game lead over Seattle for the final wild card spot in the American League. They have responded well of late, winning six of their last nine games overall.
Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back David Price as an underdog, and we'll take advantage tonight. The left-hander has gone 12-10 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 6-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in 13 road starts.
Price is 5-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in seven career starts against Cleveland. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of those seven starts. Corey Kluber is having a fine season, but he's just 2-4 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.372 WHIP in nine career starts against Detroit.
Price is 56-27 (+20.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents in his career. The Tigers are 19-8 in their last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Detroit is 6-1 in its last seven games vs. a right-handed starter.
Dave Price
San Diego Padres -153
The Padres have been worth the price lately, going 11-1 in their last 12 games as a favorite and 9-0 in their last nine as a home fave. They've been a solid investment in this price range for years, going 59-20 in their last 79 as a favorite of -151 to -200. They are in good hands with Ross on the rubber. The right-hander has a 1.90 ERA in 14 home starts this season, and the Padres are 5-0 in his last five home starts. It's been a rough season for Arizona's Cahill, who has a 5.71 ERA in 12 starts. The Diamondbacks are 1-5 in Cahill's last six starts as a road underdog.
Jimmy Boyd
Oakland A's -134
The A's are showing great value as a small home favorite against the Mariners on Monday. Oakland was just swept in a 4-game series at Los Angeles and you have to expect a great team like the A's to bounce back with a win at home. Oakland should have a nice advantage on the mound. The A's will send out Jason Hammel, who has settled down with a 2.86 ERA over his last 4 starts. Hammel also has a 3.13 ERA and 1.261 WHIP over 4 career starts against the Mariners.
Seattle will counter with Chris Young, who has not been nearly as effective on the road as he has at home. Young has a 3.22 ERA and 1.180 WHIP over 25 starts, but just a 4.24 ERA and 1.426 WHIP over his 12 road starts.
Oakland is 20-6 in their last 26 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days, 20-7 in their last 27 home games with a money line of -100 to -150 and 21-4 in their last 25 home games with an OBP of .300 or worse over their last 15 games.
There's also a strong system in play telling us to fade the Mariners. Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher after a win by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 3 runs or less 4 straight games are just 66-137 since 1997. That's a 68% system in favor of the A's.
Bryan Power
Arizona vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego
Contrary to popular belief, the Padres are not a terrible team. They're certainly much better than division mate Arizona, especially when getting to play them at home. Even better is that they will have Tyson Ross pitching this afternoon. Ross is on a remarkable run right now making 13 straight quality starts. Look for him to pitch San Diego to victory Monday.
In his last start, Ross gave up just one run and four hits in 6 1/3 IP. That was at home where Ross has not lost since June 27th, ironically enough to Arizona. But do not expect history to repeat itself as Ross' ERA his L5 at home is 1.05 and he has a 0.993 WHIP here for the season. Ross did allow just two runs and five hits in that June 27th start. In those 13 quality starts in a row that he's made, Ross has limited opponents to a .207 batting average.
Arizona has lost its last six road games, which doesn't exactly inspire a lot of confidence. Nor does the season numbers of starter Trevor Cahill, who allowed eight runs (six earned) his last time out where he lasted just 3 1/3 innings. He has a 5.74 ERA and 1.762 WHIP on the road this season.