Brady Kannon
Seattle Mariners +129
The A's have to be pretty down yet happy to return home after getting blitzed for 4-straight in Los Angeles. The bad news is that they send Jason Hammel to the mound to try to right the ship and he is about the last guy in this rotation I would want to do that as he's been awful since coming over from Chicago. Meanwhile, the once hot Mariners have cooled off thanks to The Nationals but I lean with Chris Young here and against an Oakland offense that has been miserable since The All Star Break, I am willing to take a shot at a nice price. Not only are The A's in a bit of a tailspin, I think Seattle has a big bullpen edge here too.
BONES BEST BETS
TIGERS/INDIANS – UNDER 7 -120
Kluber versus Price in what should be a battle of the Aces. The Indians are seeing just 5.6 runs per game over their past 5 contests and should struggle scoring against Price. Meanwhile Kluber has been fantastic this season with a 2.52 ERA. Expect a very low scoring game here today.
PHILLIES ML + PHILLIES/BRAVES – UNDER 7 +272
The hotter between these two teams is the Phillies who have won 7 of their past 10 games. Cole Hamels has had some minor struggles of late but he has dominated the Braves this year allowing just 1 ER through 2 starts and 14 innings. Both Hamels and Teheran have incredible numbers this season with sub 3 ERAs and low 1 WHIPs. We think the Phillies can squeak one out in a low scoring contest, plenty of value here!
PIRATES ML + PIRATES/CARDINALS – UNDER 7.5 +282
Cole and Lynn have been great this year, but giving Cole the nod with a lower WHIP on the season and much lower WHIP of lately. Both of these teams have seen the under quite a bit lately with the Pirates hitting in 7 straight and the Cardinals seeing it in 5 of 8.
BREWERS ML + BREWERS/CUBS – OVER 10.5 +223
Between Nelson and Turner it’s hard to not love the over on this game. Two high WHIP and high ERA pitchers. However Turner for the Cubs takes the cake with a disastrous 2.10 WHIP over his past 3 starts and a 1.63 WHIP on the season. With Brewers ML, we lean on the better team and the better pitcher to get it done.
ASA
Miami Florida +3.5
These two met last year in the Russell Athletic Bowl and Miami was embarrassed to the tune of 36-9. It wasn’t a huge surprise at Louisville came into the game with an 11-1 record with their only loss coming to UCF by 3 points. The Cards had one of the top QB’s in the nation – Teddy Bridgewater – and a great corp of receivers led by DeVante Parker. Well Bridgewater, who threw for 447 yards and 3 TD’s in that game, has moved onto the NFL. Parker, who had 142 yards receiving and 1 TD in that game, is suspended and will not play on Monday. Louisville was the better team last year AND the Canes were not excited to be in that bowl and did not show up. Miami was also without RB Duke Johnson who was injured. Both teams are starting new QB’s but we look for a huge step back from Bridgewater to Will Gardner, not so much from Stephen Morris to Brad Kaaya for the Canes. One of the most unheralded units in the nation last year was Louisville’s defense. They allowed only 12 PPG a year ago. However, we look for another big step back in 2014 as they bring only 4 starters back and lose 6 of their top 8 tacklers. Miami has been patiently waiting for this game. After last year’s bowl embarrassment, they knew they would get another shot at U of L to open this season. They catch the Cards going through a coaching change and we think Miami is the more talented team.
Sam Martin
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starter Jimmy Nelson might not have a good win/loss record, but he's been pitching far better than that record shows and we'll back him in a huge pitching mismatch this afternoon on the road in Wrigley Field against the Cubs.
Nelson has been superb on the road with a 2.16 ERA through three road starts, and those numbers matchup up beautifully against Jacob Turner who owns an ERA north of six on the season (in starts) and a 7.11 ERA in five home starts (also a WHIP over 2.000). Brewers didn't do much in San Francisco this past weekend, but get a new opponent today and a pitcher they know they can hit.
William Holloway
Cardinals -117
After Sundays win and the Brewers loss, the Cards moved into first place of the division for the first time all season. Which is typical of a solid veteran team making a playoff run(they are 52-28 in September over the past 3 seasons). And I look for another win here in front of the home Labor Day crowd, where they have won 9 of 11 against the Pirates. Lynn(Cardinals) is 6-2 with a 1.85 ERA since the start of July while his counter part, Cole is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts versus St. Louis.
Vegas Butcher
Tigers +103
David Price is coming off the WORST outing of his life, though it could be classified as the WORST inning of his life. Through two innings, Price allowed 0 ER’s and had 3 K’s. Then things went sour in the 3rd: single, double, single, double, single, single, single, single, single. After 9 straight hits and 6 runs (2 more ER’s after that) Prices was pulled. But it’s not like his velocity was down or he was making a ton of bad pitches. His FIP was 1.6 for the game with a 3.6 SIERA. Of course the 0.857 BABIP and the 43% LD-rate didn’t help (he averaged a 16% LD-rate in the previous 4 starts (league average is about 19%)). Clearly it was a just a bad start and I don’t think there’s anything to worry about here. The good thing to come out of it is that Price threw only 68 pitches and should be much fresher for tonight’s bounce-back. By comparison, Corey Kluber is coming off another phenomenal start where he allowed 3 ER’s but had 8K’s through 6.1 innings. He’s now registered 86K in his last 75.1 innings of work. That’s absolutely phenomenal, but it also has come at the price of a high pitch counts. In those starts he’s averaged over 108 pitches thrown, and is coming off an outing where he threw 118, the most he’s thrown all season. Normally that’s not a big concern for a power-pitcher, but Cleveland’s bullpen isn’t in the best of shape today. Their closer Cody Allen pitched 2 straight days and 3 of the last 4, Shaw pitched yesterday and appeared in 4 of the last 6, and the rest of the bullpen had a day off yesterday bthough most key guys pitched 2+ days prior to Sunday. There’s a lot of pressure on Kluber today not just to pitch well, but to pitch well deep into the game. And he’ll have to do it against Tigers’ 5th ranked offense against righties (wRC+ of 105, 8th in ISO). By comparison, Indians’ offense ranks 27th against lefties (wRC+ of 87, 28th in ISO). That’s a +18% wRC+ variance in Detroit’s favor today. As far as Detroit’s BP, their key relieves are all well rested. Bottom line is that the Tigers could have an advantage with their starter in today’s matchup, as Kluber (he’s at 192 innings this year by the way, after throwing for 160 last year) could potentially be in a fatigue spot. He’ll also be facing the Tigers for the 4th time this year, while Price hasn’t seen Cleveland since 2013. Even if Kluber is ON his game, the starting pitching is equal here and Detroit’s advantages in the BP and offensively should be the differenc. I think the Tigers have a lot of different ways to win this one while the Indians must rely on a dominant outing by their starter. Price is 5-1 when facing Cleveland in his career, while Kluber is only 2-4 against the Tigers.
OC Dooley
Rockies +125
This game will start following the conclusion of a “suspended” game that originally began way back in the month of May. With today being the first of September all teams have the option of EXPANDED rosters which will help an injury-plagued Colorado lineup that has seen three sluggers (Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzales, Mike Cuddyer) sidelined for an extended period. For those who have followed today’s Rockies starting pitcher Franklin Morales he has been the victim of “non” run support. In the last eight trips to the mound Morales has been supported by a per-start average (3.1 runs per game) that is extremely low considering that his team plays their home games in the thin air/high altitude of Denver where the posted total of this particular Labor Day contest (10) is on the lofty side. Odds are that Morales will finally get some run support late today as current San Francisco hurler Tim Hudson traditionally has had major problems at this location. In seven career starts at Coors Field the ERA of Hudson is above the SEVEN mark. It has been another horrible season for Colorado however in the "season series" so far against San Francisco they actually hold a slight edge (8 wins versus 7 defeats)