Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, September 12,2011

Steve Merril

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles +1.5

Funny things happen to teams sometimes after winning a series against the Yankees or Red Sox. Fresh off a home sweep of Boston, the Rays now head to last place Baltimore to play the Orioles. Zach Britton has won three of his last four starts including a win in Tampa Bay on September 2nd when he gave up 2 runs and four hits in six innings. Britton is 5-3 with a 2.54 ERA in 11 starts at home this season; he has beaten the Rays in two of three starts this season. In each of those starts, Britton only gave up four hits or less. Tampa Bay hitters are 11 for 52 against the Orioles’ starter this season. Tampa Bay is hitting right around .244 against left-handed starters this season. Baltimore's bullpen is 12-9 with 4.09 ERA at home blowing only 8 saves in 22 chances. Jeff Niemann is a struggling starter right now. He has given up 15 runs and 20 hits in his last 16 innings pitched while facing Texas twice and Toronto. Niemann is 9-7 with a 4.07 ERA in 20 starts. He has yet to see Baltimore this year after facing them three times last season. He gave up 5 runs and 12 hits in 15.3 innings against the Orioles in those outings. Nick Markakis (8-23) and Matt Wieters (5-13) have good numbers against the Rays’ starter. Baltimore is hitting almost .270 in their last eight games. Tampa Bay's bullpen is 5-9 with a 4.73 ERA on the road this season. We like the value of the runline with Baltimore in this game, especially since Tampa Bay is off their big series sweep of Boston.

Rocketman

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay has won 4 in a row and 7 of their last 8 games overall putting them only 3 1/2 games behind Boston in the AL East. Tampa Bay is 45-21 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Baltimore is 22-56 this year when playing against a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay sends Jeff Niemann to the mound where he has been good on the road with a 6-2 record and a 3.36 ERA this season. Tampa Bay is 5-1 this year when playing at Baltimore. We'll recommend a small play on Tampa Bay tonight!

BIG AL

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
PICK: New York Mets

Righthander R.A. Dickey hasn't had the kind of follow-up season he had hoped for from last year when he was one of the biggest surprises on this Mets squad, going 11-9 with a 2.84 ERA in his first season in Queens. This year, Dickey is a disappointing 8-11, although his ERA is almost as solid as it was last season, but his biggest problem has been winning games at home for the Mets, something that was not a problem for him last season as Dickey went 7-3 with a 1.99 ERA at CitiField vs. just 4-6 with a 3.58 ERA elsewhere. So clearly Dickey knows how to win in his home park, he just hasn't had the breaks this season. But he's 3-0 in his last three starts (one of those being at home) and although it's too little too late as far as the Mets chances are concerned, Dickey can salvage a decent end-of-the-season with a few more quality starts. Tonight's a great opportunity to keep his streak going as Nats lefthander Ross Detwiler is 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA in his last three starts, including a loss to this team - and Dickey - on September 2. Take the Mets.

BEN BURNS

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates

I feel that we're getting solid value with the home underdog Pirates here. Lincoln is 1-2 his last three starts. However, he's got a stellar 2.50 ERA over those three starts, averaging six complete innings.

On the other hand, Lohse is 2-1 but has an ugly 6.43 ERA his last three starts, averaging less than five innings in those games.

Lohse is 2-1 with a solid 3.75 ERA vs. the Pirates this season. However, Lincoln is 1-0 with a superb 1.13 ERA in two starts vs. the Cards this season.

While they're below .500, the Pirates have had a somewhat respectable season. They'd love to help ensure that the Cards don't make the playoffs. Consider Pittsburgh.

Jim Feist

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

There still seems to be life in these St Louis Cardinals as they closed the gap in the NL Central to six games behind leader Milwaukee. The Cardinals have not only won seven of their last 10 games, but they just swept a very good Atlanta team for the club's fifth straight win. Kyle Lohse looks to keep the streak going on Monday. Lohse is 13-8 this season with a nice 3.59 ERA and is coming off a very good outing versus the Brewers where he allowed no earned runs over six innings. Lohse has also enjoyed success against the Bucs, going 7-2 with a 3.62 ERA in 13 lifetime starts. The Pirates looked like the league Cinderella team this year until the wheels came off after the All Star game. The Pirates, just one game out of the division lead at the break, not are 19 games back. Brad Lincoln gets the call on Monday with a 1-2 record and 3.53 ERA. Too much on the line here for the Cardinals. They have to beat a team like Pittsburgh if they intend to close this gap. They have just the man on the hill Monday to take game one.

SPORTS WAGERS

MIAMI +7½ over New England

What is value? Value is getting more points than we should be or getting a bigger payout on the money line than we should be. Value often occurs when wagering against very popular teams like the Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Red Wings, Ohio State Buckeyes, Duke Blue Devils and many more. Value also occurs when public perception on a specific team is too high or too low and we’re surely going to see that in next week’s NFL lines after some serious blowouts in week one. Just because you’re getting value doesn’t mean you’re going to win but it’s the smart way to bet and over the long haul, you’re likely going to win more games than you lose. Enter the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins. The Patriots are among the most popular teams in the NFL while Miami is perceived as a weak football team. Miami may indeed turn out to be a weak club; time will tell. We understand that it’s hard to root for Chad Henne to outduel one of the best quarterbacks ever at the position in Tom Brady. But Wagering 101 teaches us that such sentiment inflates the number and that provides value on the less popular choice. Play: Miami +7½ (No bets).

DENVER –3½ over Oakland

While some are high on the Raiders this season, we see a team that has a rookie head coach working from a short pre-season, a 59% passer in Jason Campbell and a team that lost its best player - Nnamdi Asomugha- via free agency while doing nothing that would indicate improvement. One might also want to consider what Oakland did to Denver last season. In two games last year, the Raiders humiliated the Broncs by a combined score of 98-37. That’s not just a loss or a couple of losses. That’s serious disgrace and this is not the same Denver club as the one we saw last season. John Fox, a defensive minded coach, steps in and he’s been stressing defense and running the ball ever since he got here. Kyle Orton is very capable at the QB position and remains perhaps the most underappreciated QB in the game. Orton is sharp with his passes and he makes smart decisions, not bonehead decisions like some. The Broncos defense a season ago was non-existent but they’ll be a whole lot better this year with some good off-season signings and under the tutelage of Fox. Still, the public money is coming in on the Broncos and that has us a little nervous, thus we’ll back off on both games tonight and be happy with our 4-2 week 1 results. Play: Denver –3½ (No bets).

Tom Freese

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: St. Louis Cardinals

10* Play on St. Louis. Pittsburgh is not having a very strong season with a 66-80 overall record and they are coming into this matchup off three straight losses against Florida. St. Louis is coming off a three game sweep against Atlanta and won the two games before that series against Milwaukee for five straight winners. Pittsburgh is only 3-14 after two or more straight losses this season and they are 22-34 at home when the moneyline is between +125 and -125 this season. Kyle Lohse is starting for St Louis and he has been pitching well, coming off back to back wins and has a strong 3.31 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in all road starts. Bran Lincoln is on the hill for Pitt and is coming off back to back losses. Look for him to have another bad outing and for St. Louis to steal the win.

Vegas Experts

Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are a hot team right now with seven wins in their last eight games, including a weekend sweep of the Red Sox at Tropicana Field. Now they drop in class to play last place Baltimore, who is having a disastrous season, including a 1-5 mark here at Camden Yards vs. Tampa Bay. The Rays are 27-18 vs. lefties this year, so we like their chances vs. Zach Britton. Jeff Niemann gets the start for the visitors and has a 21-8 team start record in road night games.

Sean Murphy

Phillies @ Astros
PICK: Over 8.5
Offered at: 8 5Dimes

Both of these offenses were held down on Sunday, but this appears to be a fine spot for both to rebound on Monday night.

The Phillies are coming off a loss, and that's key. Note that they've averaged 7.1 runs per game following their last 10 losses. The 'over' has gone 8-2 in those 10 contests.

Tonight the Phils will have the opportunity to face a former teammate in Brett Myers. He's pitched well in his last two starts, but keep in mind, those outing came against struggling offenses in the Giants and Pirates. Consistency hasn't been one of Myers' strong suits, not just this season, but throughout his career.

Note that Myers has struggled from this mound here in 2011, going 1-7 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.37 WHIP here at Minute Maid Park.

The Phillies will counter with Roy Oswalt. He's pitched well in his last two starts, but is in a bit of a tough spot tonight. He'll be making his third start in the last 11 days, after needing exactly 116 pitches to get through each of his last two outings.

Oswalt has really been nothing more than an average starter this season, going 7-8 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. In 14 night starts, that ERA rises to 4.12.

These two teams haven't met since the first week of April. That was a relatively high-scoring series, producing 32 runs over three games despite some chilly spring weather in Philadelphia.

The Astros have been an 'over' machine here at home this season, posting a 43-28 o/u mark. This total has risen a half-run since opening at 7.5, but that only serves to give us a plus money return at the time of posting.

Steve Janus

Arizona Diamondbacks +107

The Diamondbacks continue to show great value late in the year. Arizona lost 6-7 to the Padres on Sunday, but already had won the first three games of that series and are 7-2 over there last nine games. The Dodgers have also been playing some strong baseball over the last couple weeks, but are just 2-4 at home against the Dbacks this season.

I also think the Diamondbacks have the edge in starting pitching in this one. Arizona will send out Joe Saunders against Ted Lilly. Saunders is 10-12 with a 3.98 ERA on the year, but a respectable 7-7 with a 3.53 ERA on the road. Lilly is 9-13 with a 4.37 ERA on the year and has really struggled against Arizona over his career, going 4-7 with a 5.09 ERA.

The Diamondbacks are 10-1 in their last 11 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, 22-8 in their last 30 vs. National League West, and -3 in Saunders' last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record. BET THE DIAMONDBACKS!

EZWINNERS

New England Patriots -7

This seems like the most popular play on the board this week, but you have to "lay it, if you play it" with New England. I can't make a good case for the division home underdog Dolphins. Miami's offense is going to be a struggle this season and I don't see them matching scores with Tom Brady and Company. The Patriots are on a 10-1 run against the spread as division road favorites of 3.5 points or more and blew out Miami in both meetings last season. I expect more of the same in this game. Lay the points.

Jack Jones

St. Louis Cardinals -132

The St. Louis Cardinals are ready to go on the road as they continue their climb back toward playoff contention. St. Louis (78-67) completed a three-game sweep of Atlanta with its fifth straight win, 6-3 on Sunday. The Cardinals pulled within 4 1/2 games of the wild card-leading Braves, and they trail NL Central-leading Milwaukee by six games.

The Cardinals will start Kyle Lohse (13-8, 3.59 ERA), who is 6-1 with a 4.08 ERA over his last seven outings, in the series opener. Lohse gave up four hits over six scoreless innings last Tuesday in a 4-2 victory over Milwaukee. The right-hander is 7-2 with a 3.62 ERA in 13 career starts against Pittsburgh, including 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA in four this year.

The Pirates are two losses away from extending their record streak of consecutive losing seasons to 19. Pittsburgh has dropped eight of 12 overall, including a weekend sweep at home to Florida in which it got outscored 20-5.

The Cardinals are 5-0 in Lohse's last 5 starts as a favorite. The Pirates are 1-8 in their last 9 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Pittsburgh is just 15-36 in their last 51 games overall, including 8-20 in their last 28 home games. The Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings with the Pirates. This is a great time to back the surging Cardinals. Bet St. Louis Monday.

FREE MLB PLAY FOR 9/12/2011: We'll side with the NY Mets -138 over the Washington Nationals on Monday night. Knowing that the Mets are 48-22 in their last 70 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, New York is showing excellent value here over the Washington Nationals and southpaw Ross Detwiler. The Mets just teed off on Detwiler nine days ago for 6 earned runs in only 3 innings for a 7-3 victory. They face him at home this time with red hot knuckleballer R.A. Dickey on the hill. Dickey is 3-0 with a 1.39 ERA over his last 3 starts, and has a respectable 3.16 lifetime ERA in seven starts vs Washington since joining the NY Mets in 2009. He'll be facing a Nationals lineup here thats averaging just 2.67 runs/game over their last 5 vs RHP. The Mets are 6-2 in Dickeys last 8 starts with 4 days of rest, and 4-0 in his last 4 vs a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Nationals are just 1-10 in Detwilers last 11 road starts, and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a dog. We'll take the home chalk here, Mets -138.

David Banks

Patriots / Dolphins Over

The first leg of Monday Night Football’s nationally televised ESPN broadcast takes us to Sun Life Stadium for a good old fashioned AFC East throw down between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins; the early kick is slated for 7:00 ET.

Though the Patriots have won the division in each of the last two seasons, head coach Bill Belichick’s squad is still searching for that playoff win that has eluded them since that memorable 2007 season where they went undefeated up until the Super Bowl. In order to become better on both sides of the ball, upper management went out and inked WR Chad Ochocinco and DT Albert Haynesworth in the off-season to add to the team’s already impressive roster. Because of it, the Patriots are now the odds on favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at +335; ahead of the Packers who check in with a +355 return. New England went 6-2 SU & ATS away from Gillette Stadium last season.

Since winning the AFC East in head coach Tony Sparano’s inaugural season as the franchise’s top dog back in 2008, the Dolphins have posted back-to-back 7-9 SU & 8-8 ATS seasons. QB play really hampered the offense in 2010 as did possessing a pair of aging backs in the backfield in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. This season, it’s out with the old and in with the new as RBs Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas will now take the hand-offs, with the offense hoping QB Chad Henne will start to limit his errant tosses and once again become a 3000 yard passer. With WRs Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess and Ryan Hartline, the offense should greatly improve upon its 17.1 PPG average from a year ago.

New England made a mockery of these team’s pair of battles a year ago by trouncing the Fins by an aggregate score of 79-21; the ‘over’ cashed in both contests. The road team has covered six of the L/8 overall in this rivalry with the ‘over’ holding a 5-3 advantage. New England has instilled confidence in its backers having covered 22 of the L/32 times it went off the board as a road favorite. A 44-21-3 ATS tally their L/68 away from Foxborough also shows how much the Pats make it a point to represent well away from home. On the flipside, Miami is 11-3 ATS its L/14 when dogged and 7-5 ATS its L/12 vs. divisional opposition. However, the Fins have gotten off to slow starts recently going 3-11-2 ATS their L/15 games played in the month of September, and they’ve also been woeful as hosts managing covers in just 17 of their L/63 games played in front of the hometown faithful.