John Ryan
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
5* graded play on the Chicago White Sox as they take on the Detroit Tigers set to start at 8:10 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the CWS will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 100-41 for 71% winners and has made 43.1 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play against AL road dogs with a money line of +100 or higher and is an average hitting team batting .265 to .279 with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games and now facing a good starting pitcher posting an ERA <=4.20. Although the CWS are out of the playoff hunt they have done well against teams like Detroit. Note that the CWS are a solid 29-16 (+13.1 Units) against the money line facing teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Detroit is 4-10 losing 13.0 units per one unit wagered against the money line after seven or more consecutive wins since 1997. Detroit has won nine straight, but this is just not a good spot for them having to face Danks. Although he has been inconsistent in his last two starts he has posted a 3.08 ERA with a 1.263 WHIP in 12 home starts. In his third to last start he pitched a complete game shutout at Seattle and walked just one batter while striking out 10 batters. That is the starter we will see tonight. Take the White Sox.
Rob Vinciletti
St Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: St Louis Cardinals
St. Louis fits a nice system here tonight that plays on road favorites off a home win, vs an opponent off a home favored loss and had 4 or less men left on base. The Cardinals have won 16 of 24 as a road favorite in this range and have won 7 of 10 here in September. They have K. Loshe on the mound and he is 7-2 vs the Pirates and has allowed 6 runs in 17 innings this season. The Cards have won 6 of his last 7 starts. Pittsburgh is suffering through another losing season and has lost 3 straight while St. Louis has won 5 straight. Look for St. Louis to get the win.
Teddy Covers
New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Seattle Mariners
Phil Hughes and Felix Hernandez matched up at Yankee Stadium less than two months ago. Seattle won that game 9-2; the game where they finally snapped their disastrous 17 game losing streak. King Felix also faced the Yankees on this field back in May, another Mariners victory. Last year against the Bronx Bombers, Hernandez was on the winning end of 6-0, 7-0 and 4-1 decisions. In ’09, he threw a complete game against New York, winning a 3-2 game. Clearly, Felix Hernandez is one pitcher who brings a lot of confidence and consistent winning results against one of the most potent lineups in baseball; a hurler worth supporting in this pick ‘em price range.
My clients and I cashed an easy Over ticket betting against Phil Hughes two starts ago, when he got hammered in Boston. Before that Hughes was the hurler who spotted the A’s a six run lead before the Yanks hit three grand slams to rally back for their record setting 22-9 win over Oakland. The mighty Yanks are just 3-7 in Hughes’ last ten road starts. Hughes has been struggling with his command, suffering through high pitch counts and an inability to keep the ball down in the zone. After playing four intense one run games in their last five games overall, don’t be shocked if Bronx Bombers come out a little flat tonight. Take the Mariners.
Bryan Power
Philadelphia Phillies @ Houston Astros
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
Making the Astros terrible 2011 season all the more pathetic is the fact that they have only played one series against the 94-49 Phillies. It of course resulted in a 3-0 sweep for Philly. Houston is a dreadful 31-71 vs. righties this season and an even worse 12-39 as an underdog of +150 or more. Starter Brett Myers has been terrible here at home w/ a 1-7 record and 5.16 ERA in Minute Maid Park. Overall, the team has lost seven of nine. The Phillies are off a loss, but that's okay because they are 11-3 L14 overall and 37-11 off a loss this season. They are a great value as a road favorite as well, going 39-18. Roy Oswalt gets the baseball, facing his former team, and looks to beat them for a 2nd time this season. These are teams that are in two different classes.
Dave Price
1 Unit on NY Mets -140
I'm backing the red-hot R.A. Dickey in this one. The knuckleballer has won his last 3 starts while posting an ERA of only 1.35. Washington scheduled starter Ross Detwiler has dropped 5 of his last 6 starts. Bet the Mets.
Black Widow
1* on San Diego Padres +128
The reigning world champion San Francisco Giants realize their playoff hopes are all but lost. San Francisco has faltered over the last few months, and they are likely to pack it in the rest of the way. They trail NL West-leading Arizona by 8.5 games with only 16 to go in the regular season. Their offense has been a major problem all year, as their 3.4 runs per game rank last in the majors and their .238 team average is among the lowest. Aaron Harang (13-5, 3.74 ERA) will take the mound again for the Padres in the opener of this three-game set after allowing one run and four hits in seven innings of a 3-1 victory over the Giants last week. Harang improved to 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his last six starts versus San Francisco. The right-hander owns a 6-1 road record this season, and the Padres are 8-2 in Harang's 10 road starts in 2011. The Giants are 3-13 in their last 16 during game 1 of a series, and 1-5 in their last 6 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. San Diego is showing excellent value here tonight. Take the Padres on the Money Line.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -1.5 +100
Motivated by being swept at St. Louis, expect the Braves to bounce back strong at home this evening. Atlanta has won 9 of 12 against Florida this season, including 8 of the last 9. 4 of Atlanta's last 5 wins in this series have come by at least 2 runs. The Marlins have lost each of Volstad's last 6 starts, and he's carrying a 5.76 ERA on the road. He's lost both of his starts against the Braves this season and was shelled for 5 earned in a 5-0 loss in his lone start at Atlanta this year. The Braves are 2-0 in Beachy's last 2 starts against the Fish. He threw 7 1-3 innings of 2-hit ball in a 5-0 win in his most recent home start against the Marlins. We'll bet the Braves on the run line.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Arizona Diamondbacks +108
An Arizona club that has won 16 of its last 19 is showing value in the underdog versus a club it's defeated 4 times in 5 road games. Plus, the Dodgers are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 1-6 in Lilly's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, are 5-1 in Saunders' last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take Arizona.
Freddy Wills
Patriots / Dolphins Over 45½
Throw out the running game on both sides today. Both teams have extremely deep defensive lines that will not allow either running game to happen. That will create the % of throws to go up resulting in a faster paced game in my opinion. Miami as it is with a less than 100% Daniel Thomas does not have much of a running game and behind their new offensive coordinator and Reggie Bush it is obvious they want to move to a faster paced system with explosive plays. I do not think you can discount how much the Patriots secondary struggled last year. I expect the Dolphins to be able to move the ball and on the other side of the field you know Tom Brady will be able to. Let's first start by saying Cameron Wake is a beast. 14 sacks a season ago was no fluke, but we feel that Brady's composure in the pocket will be the difference. Most of the Patriots offensive plays rely on Brady making a quick release any way. Wake comes from the outside and they protect up the middle. Expect Brady to be able to step up and make the throws and I expect them also to keep pace with lots of passings. They scored 41 and 38 vs. this team last year and they are over the total in 16 of their last 21 games and 13 of their last 16 as favorites. Dolphins have not played good defense at home and are over the total 11-4-1 over the last 16.
Spartan
St Louis -133
This had been a maddening season for Cardinals fans. It started early, way back in spring training as a matter of fact when ace Adam Wainright went down with a season ending injury. This team forged ahead and although it could not keep pace with the Brewers credit should be given for continuing to play hard and never tank it as some teams seem to do. The stubborn fact is this Cardinals team has now prevailed in 7 of the last 10 games and have closed the gap on a possible wild card berth to a mere 4.5 games behind Atlanta. Tonight they go into Pittsburgh and give the ball to Kyle Lohse who is off a stellar outing against Milwaukee. The Redbirds are fresh off a much needed 3 game sweep of Atlanta and have renewed hope and momentum. Lohse has found solid success in the past when going up against the Pirates recording a 7-2 mark in 13 career starts. Look for another solid effort tonight for LaRussa's guys as they continue to apply heat to the Braves.
Hollywood Sports
Rays at Orioles
Play: Under
While the Orioles' Zach Britton is saddled with a 6.39 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and .331 opponent's batting average on the road, he sees these numbers plummet to a strong 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .224 opponent's batting average at home this season. These stark home-road split stats may be a bit below the radar given that Britton has pitched seven of his last eight games on the road. How to best manipulate this situation? The Under is 7-1-1 in Baltimore's last 9 home games with Britton on the hill. And while the Orioles come off a 6-5 win at Toronto yesterday, they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last contest. Tampa Bay counters with Jeff Niemann who is looking to rebound from a rough outing where he allowed seven runs in 4 2/3 innings of work against Texas. He should rebound with a more focused effort here -- and he has been more effective on the road with his 3.36 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .214 opponent's batting average as compared to his 4.74 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and .282 opponent's batting average when at home. The Over is 5-1-1 in the Rays' last 7 games when Niemann was facing a team from the AL East. The Under is also a start 20-7-1 in Tampa Bay's last 28 opening games of a new series. Take the Under here while listing both starting pitchers Jeff Niemann and Zach Britton.