Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, September 13,2010

Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
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Baltimore starter Brian Matusz has won his last 4 starts allowing just 6 runs in those 4 starts. The Orioles are 8-2 their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 6-2 their last 8 games overall. Toronto starter Mark Rzepczynski is 2-6 in his 8 starts this year. The Blue Jays are 3-7 off a win and they are 0-5 in the last 5 starts made Rzepczynski. The Blue Jays are 2-6 their last 8 road games. Toronto is 4-9 their last 13 road games vs. a team with losing home record.

Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland A's at Kansas City Royals
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I'm not sure anyone despises facing the A's as much as KC starter Luke Hochevar. The Royal righty has lost each of his four career starts against them. But it's not just the fact that he's lost all four games, but instead, it's how he's lost them. Oakland has pounded Hochevar for 24 earned runs and 41 base runners in just 19 innings of work. That's an average of less than 5 IP per start, with an 11.37 ERA & 2.16 WHIP, to go along with a .341 BAA! His counterpart is a 30-year old lefty making his Major League debut. Bobby Cramer has dominated the Mexican League this summer and finally gets his chance in "The Show." Cramer has been virtually untouchable the last five-plus months and he has the advantage of making his debut against a Kansas City lineup that obviously knows little about him. The A's are on a strong, 19-8 run against teams with a losing record, while the Royals have won just 23 of their last 77 games against lefthanded starters.

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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas CityFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This AFC West rivalry has been all Chargers the past several seasons with San Diego taking five straight. Last year's season sweep wasn't even close as the Bolts won by an average of 29.5 points per game. Look for a different story this year as the Chiefs have improved on both sides of the ball while San Diego may have regressed due to injuries, suspensions and holdouts. Note that when two teams that had a PPG difference of 10 or greater the previous year meet, the team with the worse differential actually owns a 19-12 spread record.

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -120
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The Orioles are playing some good baseball right now; they’ve won six of their last eight games. They return home to host Toronto who has lost four of their last five games. Brian Matusz has been key in this turn around for Baltimore by winning three straight starts against the Yankees, Red Sox, and White Sox. The tall lefty has given up just six runs and 14 hits in his last 19 innings of work. Matusz struggled in his lone start against Toronto this season back in July, but he has turned things around since then. Toronto is 11-19 against southpaw pitchers this season while hitting .217 and scoring 3.5 runs per game against them. The Blue Jays are 34-37 on the road and hitting just .241 away from home.
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Toronto’s Marc Rzepczynski is struggling this season going 1-4 with a 6.63 ERA in eight starts. He has given up 12 runs and 18 hits in his last 14.7 innings pitched. The Blue Jays starter has faced the Orioles just once in his career. Last year, he gave up three runs and five hits in six innings of work against them. Baltimore is hitting nearly .300 as a team in their past eight games, and since they have one of the better records in the league since Buck Showalter took over, we’ll look for their winning ways to continue in this game tonight.

BIG ALFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Oakland AthleticsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The age of 30 may be a bit old for a professional baseball player - not from Japan or Cuba - to be making his Major League debut, but Oakland's Bobby Cramer probably doesn't care about that too much this afternoon. The southpaw from just up the road (Anaheim) has been in professional ball since 2003, was out of it 2005-2006, and has been at various levels in the minors since then and has earned this MLB debut tonight with a 15-5 record, 2.71 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 29 appearances (27 starts) this year at AAA stops in Mexico and Sacramento. How many Major League players would love to get their debut against the Kansas City Royals and righthanded starter Luke Hochevar? That's exactly the situation that Cramer finds himself in this afternoon. The potential and promise that Hochevar brought to this team as the #1 overall pick in the amateur draft of 2006 has never materialized. Hochevar has shown some flashes of dominance, but overall his performance has been disappointing to say the least and he is already 27 years old. Hochevar came back after almost three months off with a strained elbow to make a relief appearance against the Twins on September 7 and he was not very impressive, going three innings and surrendering three runs on five hits in mop-up duty. The Royals are 2-10 in Hochevar's last 12 home starts. Take the A's.

David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
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It's time to hop aboard the Brett Myers train again.

Backing Myers has been excellent for the pocketbook this season, especially at home where Houston is 10-1 in his last 11 starts at Minute Maid Park.
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Myers is home tonight against Milwaukee. This time the oddsmaker is giving Myers more respect than usual, opening him a mid-size favorite. It's just the sixth in his last 23 starts that Myers is chalk.

He's still worth backing at this price, though.
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Myers is 3-0 with a 1.76 ERA during his past six starts. He has set a Houston team record by pitching at least six innings in each of his 29 starts this year. Myers going deep into games is huge because the Astros do not have reliable middle relief.

The Brewers are swinging cold bats. They've scored only two runs in their last three games. Milwaukee is eight games below .500 on the road.
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Southpaw Chris Narveson goes for the Brewers. The Astros' best hitters are right-handed. Narveson has been pitching well lately, but has a rather bulky 5.20 ERA and is off his highest pitch count since June.
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The Astros own a winning home mark. They have been playing extremely well winning 15 of their last 21.
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Until the home price on Myers gets crazy, which it certainly isn't right now, this is the time to keep riding the Astros' meal ticket.

Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Colorado RockiesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Padres hosted the D'backs from August 24-26, winning the first two games of that series. However, they lost 11-5 in the final game (Aug 26), a defeat which began the team's 10-game losing streak. San Diego was able to "right the ship" in a three-game home series against the Dodgers (won all three) but then lost THREE of four at home this weekend to the Giants. That's 13 losses in their last 17 games and the Padres are now in a virtual tie with the Giants for the NL West lead (SD is 80-62 and SF, 81-63) plus the red-hot Rockies are just 1 1/2-games back of both teams. The Padres open a three-game series tonight in Coors Field, where the Rockies are 49-22 on the season, averaging 5.96 RPG. While the Padres enter in a funk, the Rockies have won 10 in a row and tonight will try to match a franchise-record 11-game winning streak by besting the slumping Padres. Why not? The Rockies have won 11 of 15 from the Padres this season and enter on a seven-game home winning streak, having won 19 of their last 23 in Coors Field. The Padres open the series with rookie left-hander Cory Luebke. He was excellent in his last start, allowing just two hits with seven Ks over six innings of Wednesday’s 4-0 victory over the Dodgers. However, his first career start (9/3) came vs these Rockies when he allowed five hits (two, two-run HRs) and four ERs in five innings. The Rockies will go with Jeff Francis, who has been on the DL with left shoulder soreness. He's been rehabbing in the minors and will make his first start since August 11, tonight. Francis will be held to a pitch count of around 60 or 70 tonight, so the Colorado bullpen will have to step up. It's been solid all year (3.83 ERA), so that's not a big deal. San Diego's rookie lefty had a tough time with these Colorado bats in pitcher-friendly Petco on 9/3 and he should have even more trouble here in Coors, where the Rockies are 18-9 vs lefties, averaging 5.39 RPG. More bad news for San Diego fans is coming tonight.

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston AstrosFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Astros salvaged a split in their series against the Dodgers with a win on Sunday. It was the offense that got it done yesterday, something that has not been happening too much. The pitching has been the story for Houston despite the recent three-game bump in the road. The pitching staff has allowed three runs or fewer in 21 of its last 30 games, posting a 3.02 ERA over that span, and it has allowed four runs or less in 33 of its last 45 games overall.
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The Brewers are coming off a 3-3 homestand following a series loss to the Cubs. Milwaukee was able to salvage the final game on Sunday thanks to a solid pitching performance from Yovani Gallardo but the offense remains a problem. The Brewers scoring only two runs during their three-game series, both of which were plated on Sunday, and they are hitting a mere .220 over their last 10 games. In three games played in Houston this season, Milwaukee has scored a total of two runs as well.
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The Astros have a significant advantage on the mound for this game.
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Houston sends Brett Myers to the mound and he is having an outstanding season and remains under the radar. He has a 2.91 ERA and 1.21 WHIP covering 29 starts and he has tossed 12 quality outings in his last 13 starts, all but one in which he has allowed two runs or fewer. Overall 22 of those 29 starts have been quality performances and that is a solid percentage. He has been extremely effective at home where he is 6-0 with a 2.23 ERA in 12 games with Houston going 10-2 in those contests.
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Christopher Narveson counters for the Brewers and while he has been effective of late, I am not sold. He has thrown three straight quality outings but his ERA has only gone from 5.52 to 5.20 showing just how bad he was before this. His numbers are slightly better on the road but considering Milwaukee’s struggles away from home recently, he is not in a good spot. The Brewers are 1-5 in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record.
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The Astros are 15-3 in their last 18 games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game so the pitching has been able to extend the opposing offense’s struggles. Also Houston is 9-0 in the second half of the season this year against teams allowing 4.8 or more rpg. 3* Houston Astros

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Yankees vs. Rays
Play: Over 8FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These two teams have played 11 games with 9 of them flying over the total. Tonight their is a solid totals system that applies to this one. We want to play the over for road favorites off a road dog loss vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog loss. This system cashed in the low 80/s percent range. Both teams are scoring over 5 runs per game in divisional play. Tampa has played over in 8 of 10 September games, while the Yankees have gone over 9 of 13 times as a road favorite from -100 to -125. Tampa has been tearing it up of late averaging over 7 runs per game the past week. CC. Sabathia has a decent but not dominating 3.74 road era. D.Price pitching for Tampa has allowed 10 earned runs in 12+ innings in 2 starts vs the Yankees this year. Consider the over here tonight.

JIM FEISTFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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TORONTO BLUE JAYS / BALTIMORE ORIOLES
PLAY: BALTIMORE ORIOLES
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The Blue Jays have owned the O's this year, going 12-0 in their previous meetings. However, that was pre-Showalter and since Bucky took over the O's, the team has shown major improvements. Looking back at their dominance over Baltimore, not only are the Jays 12-0, but they have outscored the Orioles 70-23 during that streak. I expect the streak to come to an end tonight. Since Showalter took over the helm of Baltimore the club has gone 23-15 and are coming home off a 4-2 road trip. Baltimore starter Brian Matusz has been very hot, winning four straight decisions and posting a 2.00 ERA. Marc Rzepcznski starts tonight for the Jays. The Blue Jays have lost the last five games Rzepcznski has started as the southpaw has gone 0-3 in those games with a 8.18 ERA. Things are different this time around as the Jays come to Baltimore and I fully expect the Orioles to win tonight.

RANDALL THE HANDLE
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Ravens @ JetsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Line: Jets by 2½FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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No question about it, the Jets can play defence. How else do you wind up in the AFC Championship game after averaging just 21.4 points per game and employing the 31st ranked passing offence? Unfortunately for the Jets, that bump and grind style can work against some but is unlikely to succeed against a foe that is comparable on defence but is noticeably better on offence. The Ravens are loaded up after some offensive upgrades during off-season and the only four-letter word that Rex Ryan may be uttering after this one is ‘Rice’ as Baltimore ’s stud running back leads the way. TAKING: Baltimore +2½
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Chargers @ ChiefsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Line: San Diego by 4½FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Every year since the league went to eight divisions of four, there has been a team that went from worst to first. Could the Chiefs be this year’s surprise squad? Insiders like what they’ve seen and if it is to occur, this would be a perfect place to start. TAKING: Kansas City +4½

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Baltimore Ravens +1.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There has been so much hype surrounding the New York Jets this off season that they will be an over valued team early in the season. The Jets were lucky to make it into the playoffs last season and when you examine their record you see that they beat up on the bad teams and did not far very well on the good teams. Well they are playing a very good Baltimore team tonight that has really upgraded their passing game by picking up receivers Anquan Boldin and TJ Houshmandzadeh to go along with the punishing ground attack of Ray Rice. Joe Flacco has a lot of weapons to work with and Revis can't cover all of them. The Jets offense still has question marks in my opinion. The running game is solid with Shonn Greene and LT in the backfield, but I'm not sold on the passing attack. I'm not high on quarterback Mark Sanchez or receiver Braylon Edwards at all and their best weapon Santonio Holmes is out for the first four games. The Jets were last in the league in pass to run ratio last season and they won't be able to get away with that this season. The Ravens will send a message to their old defensive coordinator tonight. Take the points.

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KAN +6 vs 481 SDC
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Look out the Sandy Chargers have some holes to fill as the weak run stopping D by the Chargers and the poor O line has the "Rz's camp" on the KC Chiefs+ the points late. The Kc Chiefs will just pound the rock all the game as they will not be the public side and that's how we fly. The New York Jets hung up 177 yards on the turf and the Texans hung up over 190. The NFL has been super sweet so far as this 2010 season has opened 8-1-1 (89%).Let's stay focused here tonight and back the Chiefs who will stop R Mathews @ home. The Romeo Crennel era starts tonight as the defensive coordinator for a poor run stop club is on the front burner tonight. The public will back the P Rivers crew, not us, The way to beat the book consistently is to go the other way and the JR O'STER power ratings are @ Sandy - 1 here!

Lenny Del GenioFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: San Diego Chargers
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Although Kansas City has improved itself from three straight campaigns with four wins or less, this number is too low. They've lost three straight times at Arrowhead to their division rivals and in last year's meeting the Chargers outgained them by a whopping 200 yard margin. The Chiefs found themselves down 20-0 at the half in that game and were out FD'd 17-10. Neither 2009 matchup was close as San Diego won by 29 and 30 points, averaging 40 PPG. Take advantage of a number that's just too low. Take San Diego.