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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
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Pittsburgh and the Mets have played 3 times this year with the Mets having a slight 2-1 edge. This is the first of a four game series as two young pitchers will battle it out on the mound James McDonald who has pitched against the Mets this year, but lost 5-1 as he got no run support and Dillon Gee who is making just his second start of the year, but had a gem in his first outing against Washington going 7 strong innings, allowing just one run on 2 hits. Look for the two to go at least 6, but McDonald will get his revenge and win this time 3-2. Play Pittsburgh
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
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Milwaukee is 66-76 overall this year while Houston comes in with a 68-75 overall record on the season. Houston is 38-25 overall this year against division opponents. Houston is 67-55 last 3 years and 24-14 this year against left handed starters. Milwaukee has lost 8 of their last 12 games overall. Houston has won 9 of their last 13 games overall. Brett Myers is 11-7 with a 2.91 ERA overall this year, 6-0 with a 2.23 ERA at home this year and 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA his last 3 starts. Houston is 3-0 at home vs Milwaukee this year. Myers has a 3.38 ERA overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!
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Padres at Rockies
Play: Over 9½
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While we realize that the San Diego Padres have not been hitting a lick lately, they may improve vs. a pitcher with questionable health tonight and the Colorado Rockies have been crushing southpaws, so these teams should do enough to push this game ‘over’ the total.
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The bookmakers have installed a total of 9½ for this contest, with the betting line on the ‘over’ set at a flat -110.
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The Rockies are in fact the hottest team in baseball having won 10 games in a row, as they are making their seemingly annual late-season amazing playoff push. Yes, the pitching has been excellent during their winning streak, but they are also batting .296 as a team while averaging a hearty 6.20 runs per game, and they are killing left-handed pitchers to the tune of .358 during thus streak, averaging 7.76 runs per nine innings against them!
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This does not bode well for San Diego southpaw starter Cory Luebke, who is making just his third start since being recalled September 1. Yes, he has pitched well in his first two outings, but those both came at home at Petco Pack in the most pitcher-friendly stadium in the National League. He may be intimidated here making his first career road start in altitude, and the Rockies have handled much more seasoned pitchers well during this streak.
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All that said it is uncertain what Colorado will get out of the oft-injured Jeff Francis, who is making his first appearance at the Big League level since being placed on the Disabled List with shoulder problems following his start on August 11. Furthermore, Francis threw only 48 pitches in three innings during his minor league rehab start last Sunday, which is now eight days ago.
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Francis seems like damaged goods at the current time, so even the struggling San Diego offense should be able to muster up a few runs off of him to help send this game ‘over’.
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Boston @ Mariners
PICK: Mariners +1.5
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Games in this park have averaged only 6.6 runs per game this season. This could be another low-scoring affair. That makes every run valuable.
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Lester has been very stingy on the road. In 14 road starts, he's gone 9-3 with an excellent 2.60 ERA and 1.061 WHIP.
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While his home record (3-6) would indicate otherwise, Fister has been nearly as tough, when pitching here at Seattle. In 14 starts here, he's got an impressive 3.20 ERA and 1.068 WHIP.
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Fister's lone home start against the Red Sox resulted in a 4-2 Seattle victory. Meanwhile, Lester is just 1-2 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.446 WHIP vs. the Mariners. The Red Sox were just 2-4 (-3.8) in his six starts vs. the Mariners with Lester allowing four or more runs in four of those games. Five of Lesters' six starts against the Mariners have come at Seattle and the Mariners were 4-1 in those games. Getting roughly a "pick'em price" on the run-line, consider Seattle at +1.5 runs
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
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The Baltimore Orioles may own the second worst record in all of baseball, but they're by no means simply playing out the string.
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The O's have won six of their last eight games, and since Buck Showalter took over the team on August 3rd, they've gone 23-15 overall, including 12-8 here at home.
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Baltimore finished up a six-game road trip yesterday in Detroit, and even though it dropped the finale, the jaunt did nothing to damage its confidence. The O's managed to win four of six games, taking both series' to stretch their series winning streak to three.
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Toronto posted a 5-4 win over Tampa Bay yesterday, putting an end to a four-game losing streak. The Jays will be in tough on Monday as they hit the road, where they've dropped eight of their last 11 contests.
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The Jays offense was hit or miss during their seven-game homestand, and now they'll have to face a left-handed starter. Note that they've won just 11 times in 30 tries against southpaws this season.
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Mark Rzepczynski will take the ball for the Jays on Monday. He's struggled mightily since getting the call to the big club in July. Rzepczynski has won only once in 10 appearances (eight starts) and his 6.47 ERA and 1.76 WHIP obviously leave a lot to be desired.
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The left-hander was serviceable in August, holding opponents to a .256 batting average, but he's fallen off the grid in two September starts, allowing the opposition to hit .351 in nine innings of work. In his last five outings, Rzepczynski has issued 18 walks while posting only 12 strikeouts over 22 innings.
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The Orioles have faced Rzepczynski once, here at Camden Yards last July. They notched a 3-2 win on that day. Keep in mind, Rzepczynski was much more effective last season. Now the Jays are questioning whether he might be better suited working out of the bullpen.
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Brian Matusz will counter for the Orioles. He has completely turned his season around since the start of August. The Orioles are 6-1 in his last seven starts, and he's allowed three earned runs or less in six of those. After dealing with command issues earlier in the season, he's really settled down, issuing two walks or less in seven consecutive outings.
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Matusz has posted better numbers at home and at night this season. Here at Camden Yards, he's just 3-7 but owns a 4.27 ERA and has held opponents to a .260 average. At night, he's 5-9 but has recorded a 4.19 ERA and .256 opponents average.
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The current Jays roster is hitting .500 and slugging 1.000 against Matusz, but we don't have a large sample size to work with, as they've collected those numbers in only 16 at-bats. It's also worth noting that Matusz hasn't faced them since July 18th, when he was struggling. He appears to be a much different pitcher today than he was then.
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Despite all of their recent success, there is still value in backing the Orioles. That has a lot to do with the fact that they remain a last place team, but they're certainly not playing like one right now. Take Baltimore.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays
Pick : Toronto Blue Jays
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I will take Toronto at a solid price here Monday. There are only a couple things you need to know about this game before wanting to jump on board with the Blue Jays. First, Toronto is 12-0 against Baltimore this season. They have swept two series on the road with the Orioles, going a perfect 6-0 in Camden Yards. The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
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Secondly, Brian Matusz is pitching well of late but the Blue Jays have absolutely rocked him this year. Matusz is 0-2 with a ridiculous 22.81 ERA and a monstrous 3.687 WHIP in 2 starts vs. Toronto this season. The lefty has allowed 11 earned runs, 16 base runners and 4 home runs in just 4.1 innings of work in those 2 starts. Plus, the Orioles are 0-4 in Matusz's last 4 starts as a home favorite. Bet Toronto Monday.
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3* on Florida Marlins +120
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Reasons the Marlins win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (FLORIDA) - with a winning record on the season, in September games. This is an 81-40 ML System hitting 66.9% over the last 5 seasons while gaining +53.8 units. Great value today with Florida. Bet the Marlins at home.
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -150
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The Rockies are rolling, having won 10 in a row, and I like their chances tonight against a Padres club that has dropped 13 of its last 17. In addition, the Padres have had no answer for the Rockies. In fact, they have lost 11 of this season's 15 matchups with Colorado. Francis hasn't made a start in a month, but the time off should have done him some good. He is still more proven that the Padres' Luebke, who was hit hard in a loss to Colorado just 10 days ago. Plus, The Rockies are 6-1 in Francis' last 7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take the red hot Rockies.
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1 Unit on NY Yankees -110
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After getting swept at Texas over the weekend, I expect the Yankees to show up in Tampa Bay with some extra fire. There's no doubting how good Price has been for the Rays in 2010, but he was touched for 7 runs in just 5 innings of work the last time he saw the Yankees. And, he has a career ERA of 4.02 in 5 starts against them. Meanwhile, Sabathia is 8-4 lifetime with an ERA of just 3.08 against the Rays. It is also worth noting that the Yankees are a perfect 8-0 in Sabathia's last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Look for the Yankees to get to Price again tonight and for Sabathia to take care of the rest.
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1* on Houston Astros -135
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Houston has climbed all the way up to third place in the NL Central with the way they have played in the second half of the season. This team has one goal in mind, and that's to finish with a .500 record or better. Houston is 15-6 in their last 21 games overall and they'll be sending their best starter to the mound tonight the Brett Myers. The righty is 11-7 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.212 WHIP this season. Myers is 6-0 with a 2.23 ERA at home, and the Astros are 10-1 in his last 11 home starts. He'll be facing Chris Narveson, who sports a 5.20 ERA in 24 starts and 9 relief appearances this year for Milwaukee. Take the Astros on the Money Line.
Chris Jordan
The Rockies are 1-1/2 games behind the Padres, and know all too well how to win in September.
Colorado has also won seven straight and 19 of 23 in Denver, while the Friars have lost three straight and five of seven on the road.
The Rockies have won 11 of 15 from the Padres this season, so confidence will certainly be in the rarified air tonight.
Play Colorado.
2♦ COLORADO
Derek Mancini
2-0 NFL Free Play sweep Sunday with the Steelers outright over the Falcons 15-9 and the Lions covering against the Bears 19-14! Back to the bases on Monday, and one game in particular has piqued my interest.
Fishy line here. Orioles have lost ALL 12 meetings with the Blue Jays this season, and yet, here we see them favored? This line is begging for Toronto money, and despite a solid pitching edge for the Orioles, the public is still liking the Jays here. Don't make the mistake of underestimating an Orioles club that has shown vast improvement under Showalter, and there's no doubt they'll be looking to put a halt to this losing streak tonight.
Brian Matusz (8-12, 4.71 ERA) may have a losing record, but he's been damn good of late, posting 4 straight quality efforts, surrendering 6 combined runs in his L27 innings (2.00 ERA)! That includes impressive efforts against Boston and at Yankee Stadium in his L2... So don't tell me he can't get it done against this Blue Jays offense!
Opposing Matusz is the Blue Jays Marc Rzepczynski (1-4, 6.47 ERA), who's been below average at best this season. Toronto has lost his last 5 starts, with the lefty posting a 8.18 ERA over the stretch, and it doesn't look to get any better tonight. Orioles are batting a solid .274 over their L10 games, and are averaging a healthy 5.1 runs per game over their L8 games (going 6-2 over that span). Jays have had issues on the road all season, and in this particular match up, the Orioles not only own a strong pitching edge, but will be looking to finally notch a win against Toronto this season. Take Baltimore (Matusz) over Toronto (Rzepczynski) Monday.
2♦ BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Jeff Benton
Now onto Monday’s free pick – and I remain on a 126-99-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away after the Lions (6♦) got inside the number against the Bears on Sunday – as we’ll lay the price with the Astros over the Brewers.
This one’s all about Houston right-hander Brett Myers, who continues to deliver the goods on the mound. He’s now 11-7 with a 2.91 ERA, including 3-0 with a 1.76 ERA in his last six starts. Myers has given up two earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 13 outings, and Houston is 9-3 in his last 12 starts. Most impressive of all, Myers has been a work horse, going at least six innings in each of his 29 starts.
Myers has been fantastic at home, going 6-0 with a 2.23 ERA in 12 contests, 10 of which the Astros have won. Those home numbers are important to note because Myers has struggled in three starts against the Brewers this season (13 runs and 23 hits allowed – including four home runs – in 18 innings), but all three of those games were in Milwaukee.
Speaking of the Brewers, they’re handing the ball to lefty Chris Narveson, who has been solid in his last three starts (2-0, 2.21 ER) but he’s still got a 5.20 ERA on the season. That includes a 5-0 loss to the Astros on May 26 when Narveson allowed four runs on eight hits and two walks in four innings. He’s faced Houston four times (three starts) in his career, giving up seven runs in 15 innings.
Houston is now 1½ games ahead of Milwaukee in the N.L. Central standings thanks to the fact the Astros have won 15 of their last 21 overall while the Brewers have dropped 11 of their last 18, scoring just two runs in their last two games and being held to four runs or less in nine of their last dozen contests.
5♦ HOUSTON ASTROS
Bobby Maxwell
San Diego had a strange training camp but when it comes down to it, the Chargers are much better than the Chiefs and they’ll show it tonight in Kansas City, winning this one by 14.
The Chargers have one of the best QBs in the league in Philip Rivers who tossed for more than 4,000 yards a season ago, his second straight season topping that mark. He had the AFC’s top quarterback rating and even though his top deep threat in Vincent Jackson isn’t there, he still has plenty of weapons to use against Kansas City tonight.
His top WRs are Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee, and they added Patrick Crayton from Dallas a few weeks ago and he will make an immediate difference by stretching the field. TE Antonio Gates is always a threat and at RB this season is rookie Ryan Mathews who has looked very impressive in the preseason.
Defensively is where this team struggled in 2009 and it’s where a lot of questions reside for this season. But for tonight, they will be better than the Chiefs, who look improved, but not quite ready to contend for the AFC West crown.
Kansas City went 4-12 last season and QB Matt Cassel didn’t work out quite like coach Todd Haley had hoped. He managed just 5.8 yards per pass attempt and threw 16 INTs. He spent a lot of last season trying to avoid the rush as his offensive line was definitely lacking. At RB, Thomas Jones comes over from the Jets and Jamaal Charles had more than 1,000 yards last season. Neither is a real superstar, but a good game would take the pressure off Cassel.
The Chargers have won five straight over the Chiefs (3-2 ATS) and delivered a 37-7 beating in Kansas City last season, easily cashing as 5 ½-point favorites. They have won their last three trips to Kansas City and seven of the last 10 overall against the Chiefs.
San Diego finished 2009 with a 5-1 ATS run on the road and they are 24-10-4 in its last 38 against AFC West foes. Kansas City is just 7-18-1 ATS at home in its last 26 and 1-5 ATS in September games.
Play the Chargers to win this one with easy tonight!
Stephen Nover
Philadelphia at Florida
The Phillies have stepped things up as they close in on a fourth straight NL East title. They have won 14 of their last 17 road games.
The pitching matchup is Joe Blanton versus Andrew Miller. Blanton began the year injured and got off to a slow start. He's come around, though, to post a 3-1 mark with a 3.67 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star break. Philadelphia is 6-1 in his last seven starts.
Compared to Miller, Blanton is Bob Gibson. Miller was a bust with Detroit after the Tigers took him with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2006 draft. The Tigers finally gave up on him and dealt him to Florida.
Miller hasn't panned out with the Marlins either. The Marlins are 3-12 when Miller has been a 'dog. Miller is 1-1 with a 6.16 ERA and 2.11 WHIP this year.
The Phillies just faced Miller at home this past Wednesday. To put it kindly it wasn't Miller time. The Phillies battered him for seven runs on 11 hits and three walks in four innings.
Miller can strike out batters, but he's still way too wild and lacks command. The Phillies represent a nightmare matchup for him.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA