Joel Tyson
San Diego at KANSAS CITY (+5)
On Saturday I hit my 30 Dime Pac 10 Game of the Year with Stanford routing UCLA, tonight I go after my 30 Dime Monday Night Football Game of the Year.
As for my free play this Monday night, going to go over the total in the Chargers-Chiefs late night game at Arrowhead Stadium.
San Diego closed the regular season last year by heading over the total in 5 of their last 6 regular season games, while Kansas City wound up going over the posted price in 5 of their final 7 regular season contests.
In the series, the teams have played over the total to a 2-0-1 tune their last 3 series meetings, and with both teams wanting to break from the gate fast, I will take my chances by playing the over in this meeting.
Matt Cassel should benefit from Charlie Weis' play-calling, and the addition of speedy rookie Dexter McCluster gives the Chiefs a little more pop in their offense this season.
Take the over in this Monday nighter.
2♦ OVER
Joel Tyson
San Diego at KANSAS CITY (+5)
As for my free play this Monday night, going to go over the total in the Chargers-Chiefs late night game at Arrowhead Stadium.
San Diego closed the regular season last year by heading over the total in 5 of their last 6 regular season games, while Kansas City wound up going over the posted price in 5 of their final 7 regular season contests.
In the series, the teams have played over the total to a 2-0-1 tune their last 3 series meetings, and with both teams wanting to break from the gate fast, I will take my chances by playing the over in this meeting.
Matt Cassel should benefit from Charlie Weis' play-calling, and the addition of speedy rookie Dexter McCluster gives the Chiefs a little more pop in their offense this season.
Take the over in this Monday nighter.
2♦ OVER
Michael Cannon
San Diego at KANSAS CITY (+4')
I’m going to cap my winning week with a 20-dime lock in the first of the two Monday Night games featuring the Ravens and Jets.
For your Monday free winner take the points with the Chiefs over the Chargers.
Something fishy about this line. The Chargers swept their two meetings with Kansas City last year, winning by a combined score of 80-21. But tonight they’re only being asked to win by six points or so.
You know the saying, “where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire”.
I believe there is a fire and it’s burning in Kansas City’s favor.
This is the Chiefs’ lone prime-time appearance and you can bet Arrowhead will be rocking.
There’s also a new offensive coordinator in town in Charlie Weis and I expect him to help quarterback Matt Cassel out tremendously.
San Diego coach Norv Turner is 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS in season openers, including an anemic 0-4 SUATS against division foes.
Take the points with the Chiefs as they stay within the number.
3♦ KANSAS CITY
Chuck O'Brien
Toronto at BALTIMORE (-125)
Before we get to my Monday comp winner, a quick word on what I’m releasing to my clients today. I’m following up a 3-0 NFL Sunday sweep – which yielded 50 Dimes of profit – with a 20 Dime Monday Night lock on Chargers-Chiefs, plus a 5 Dime bonus play. We’re going to close out a perfect opening week with NFL side selections, so make sure you’re taking part in the action!
Now onto today’s complimentary selection, and it comes in baseball as I’ll take the Orioles as a small home favorite against the Blue Jays. Yes, Baltimore has lost all 12 meetings with Toronto this season, including 11 multi-run losses. However, every one of those clashes occurred before Buck Showalter jumped on board as manager.
To say the Orioles have been a different team under their new skipper is a huge understatement. Baltimore is 23-15 since Showalter took over on Aug. 3, including 12-8 at Camden Yards. Even though the O’s fell 6-2 to Justin Verlander and the Tigers yesterday, they’re still 6-2 in their last eight games, including 4-1 against the Yankees and Rays (the teams with the top two records in baseball).
Baltimore has a huge edge on the mound in this contest, too. Rookie Brian Matusz is 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA in his last four starts, and the Orioles are 7-1 in the lefty’s last eight starts (he’s had quality outings in all seven wins, pitching at least six innings in every game and giving up two runs or less five times).
Meanwhile, Toronto’s Marc Rzepcynski has been a disaster with the big club, going 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA in 10 games (eight starts). The Blue Jays are just 2-6 when Rzepczynski starts, including 0-5 in the lefty’s last five outings (he allowed a combined 20 earned runs in 22 innings in those five games).
Finally, Baltimore has been pounding left-handed pitching lately (.302 average last 10 games), while Toronto has been the complete opposite (.146 average last 10 games). And the Jays have lost nine of 14 overall and eight of 11 on the road.
3♦ BALTIMORE
Karl Garrett
Toronto (+110) at BALTIMORE
American League comp play winner for Monday in the battle of the birds on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles.
As well as the O's have played under new skipper Buck Showalter, there is one team that have had absolutely no luck against, and that is the Jays.
Toronto is a perfect 12-0 in this year's season series. That is not a typo...12-0 in the season series, and about to be 13-0.
Jays starter Marc Rzepczynski is certainly having a rough go of it this season, while Brian Matusz has been on-fire of late. Problem is, Matusz has not been able to fool the Toronto batters in his 2 starts against them.
Last September he gave up 5 runs in just 3 innings of work against the Jays, and then followed it up this past July with 2 innings of 6 run ball.
The G-Man is going to go with Toronto to continue their domination of Baltimore one more time.
Take the Jays as the small road dog.
2♦ TORONTO
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Chargers @ ChiefsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With neither of these teams being trustworthy enough in their respective roles tonite to merit a play on either of them, we look to the total and find some decent edges with the Over. First, SD is 13-5-1 OVER L3Y on the road when playing on natural grass, as there are tonite in KC. And looking at SD’s totals log LY away on grass, they were 4-1-1 to the Over, averaging 50 total ppg in those six games. And if we narrow that down to their four games on grass LY as road faves like they are tonite, the Bolts were still 2-1-1 to the Over in those 4 games, and averaged 31 ppg on offense. And we also get some decent support from the Over from KC, as Chiefs are 14-7-2 to the Over at home L3Y, including 3-0-2 Over LY in their 5 HGs as home dogs, with an average of 47.5 total ppg in those five. So combining and averaging those totals results from recent representative games, and counting LY’s Chargers-Chiefs game in KC just once to avoid doubling counting of same, the Over was a combined 7-1-2, averaging 49 total ppg. So take the Over 45 here for 3 units.
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KANSAS CITY +5½ over San Diego
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We all saw yesterday how risky it is to lay divisional road points (see: Dolphins, Cowboys, Niners, Colts) and you can double that on Monday Night Football. Key personnel changes in San Diego is another reason why spotting these points early in the season has us hesitant. Pro-bowl WR Vincent Jackson is serving a three-game suspension and will not play. Nose tackle Jamal Williams (now a Bronco) and cornerback Antonio Cromartie (a Jet) are gone, and former Pro Bowl outside linebacker Shawne Merriman is unlikely to go and even if he does, he’s not at full tilt. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have 10 wins and 38 losses over the last three years and they don’t attract a lot of wagering money. However, this could be the year they become competitive again. They’ve revamped their coaching staff with Romeo Crennel taking over the defense and Charlie Weis heading the offense. Matt Cassel had some rough games last year but given protection and a few more weapons, Cassel is very capable of leading them. KC will not be lacking motivation as the Chargers destroyed them in both games last season by a combined score of 80-21. But that was then and this is now and this is a good place to start for what hopes to be an ascending home side. That’s not saying they have to win but they have to be a tough out and they simply cannot allow the Chargers to embarrass them for the third time in three successive games. When the Chiefs were respectable, Arrowhead was always a difficult venue for visitors. This is the year that Arrowhead once again becomes a factor and we expect the Chiefs to keep this one within range with a distinct possibility of pulling off the upset. Play: Kansas City +5½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
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Baltimore +1.05 over N.Y. JETSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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There was lots of preseason hype on the 49ers. They got smoked. There is always lots of preseason hype on the Colts. They lost too. The Packers had more preseason hype than anyone and although the won and covered, they were a drive away from blowing a 20-3 third quarter lead with second string QB Michael Vick leading the way for the Eagles. Enter the New York Jets, a team with as much preseason hype as any team in the AFC and perhaps the whole league. That’s not to say the Jets won’t live up to it but everything in this league starts at the QB position and Mark Sanchez has proven nothing. Last season Sanchez had a lousy 12 TD passes with 20 picks. Last season, the Jets ranked 31st in passing and ran the ball 59% of the time. That was more than any team in the league and that strategy will not work against the stifling Ravens. Remember, the Jets finished just 9-7 last season in a weak division and that’s after the Bengals and Colts “threw” the final two games of the year. The Jets have also been doing a lot of smack talking and the only thing that accomplishes is firing up the opposition even more. The Ravens are a quality team with quality personnel. Joe Flacco is now in his third year and not only is he a reliable QB, he’s a proven one too with over 3500 yards last season to go along with 21 TD passes and only 12 picks, almost the exact opposite of Sanchez. The Ravens are loaded on both sides of the ball and the additions of Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh make them even more potent. Baltimore has done some smack talking too but only in response to the Jets starting it. The bottom line is that the Ravens may be the least flawed team in the business and in no way are they inferior to these Jets in any area. Play: Baltimore +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
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Arizona/CINCINNATI over 9 +1.09FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With Bronson Arroyo and Barry Enright going, what we have here is two extreme fly-ball pitchers in a park that is unforgiving to those types of pitchers. Enright’s 2.95 ERA is a complete fluke, as his strand rate is an eye-opening 82% and his fly-ball rate is 48%. This guy has been the recipient of good fortune and was exposed in his last start against the Giants in which he allowed three jacks, nine hits and six runs in six IP. In two September starts covering 13 innings against the Padres and Giants, they hit .333 off him. Now he’ll face an explosive offense in an explosive park. Arroy’s fly-ball rate over the past 31 days, covering five starts is 49%. At home this season he’s walked 33 and struck out just 39 in 85 innings. Arroyo has been tagged for five homers over his last three starts including three in his last start. All the reports on the weather for this game shows the winds blowing out and frankly, this one looks to go over early and easy. How do like your eggs? Play: Arizona/Cincinnati over 9 +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
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ST. LOUIS –1½ +1.04 over ChicagoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Jeff Samardzija will now get his start a few days earlier than expected, as he will fill in for Carlos Silva, who is out with a strained elbow. Regardless of how and when Samardzija came by this start, it’s recommended to stay far away from this guy. Samardzija has struggled mightily in the majors and even his 2010 minor-league numbers do not inspire a lot of confidence. While he had an acceptable strikeout rate, he’s always behind in the count and walks guys consistently. His ERA in the minors was an uninspiring 4.37 and in four games in the majors this season, all in relief, he walked six, struck out two in three innings and allowed 11 runs. Jaime Garcia’s success this season has quickly made him an established regular in the St. Louis rotation and it’s no fluke. An 80% strand rate has suppressed Garcia's ERA, but his xERA indicates he's been a legitimate sub-4.00 ERA pitcher. Garcia’s 56% groundball rate on the year is one of the tops in the business, confirming that he has terrific stuff and this Cubs line-up should not pose much of a threat. Cardinals going away even with Garcia batting eighth. Play: St. Louis –1½ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
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1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -1.5 +115
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Washington won the last time these two teams faced off, but I don't expect that to be the case tonight when you consider that Atlanta is 12-1 when listed as a home favorite and revenging a loss this season, winning by an average score of 7.5 to 2.6 in this spot. Take the Braves on the run line.
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1* on Houston Astros -135
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Houston has climbed all the way up to third place in the NL Central with the way they have played in the second half of the season. This team has one goal in mind, and that's to finish with a .500 record or better. Houston is 15-6 in their last 21 games overall and they'll be sending their best starter to the mound tonight the Brett Myers. The righty is 11-7 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.212 WHIP this season. Myers is 6-0 with a 2.23 ERA at home, and the Astros are 10-1 in his last 11 home starts. He'll be facing Chris Narveson, who sports a 5.20 ERA in 24 starts and 9 relief appearances this year for Milwaukee. Take the Astros on the Money Line.
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BAL (-137) vs TOR
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MLB plays will be on the smaller side as we head down the stretch, but this line was too strong to ignore.
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Baltimore is getting the sharp money early, and for good reason. Here is what I wrote in my daily MLB blog where I break down every game on the card, every day:
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How about this line? Brian Matusz is a short favorite against the Jays, a team he has managed to amass a ridiculous 22.85 ERA against. Yikes. Then again, oddsmakers aren't stupid, and Rzepczynski has been getting clubbed lately, the Jays haven't been playing that well after beating up on pitchers in the first half of their recent homestand, and the Orioles (and Matusz) are absolutely rolling. I don't see how you can back Toronto, but I see plenty of reasons to consider Baltimore.
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Baltimore is rolling, Toronto is scuffling a tad (especially on the mound), and I expect the team playing at home to have a huge edge down the stretch as clubs with nothing to play for lose their gusto to win on the road.
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Play on the Orioles, and keep it at a unit or under.
O.C. Dooley
Ravens / Jets Over 36
The intangible is the fact that so far in the regular season we have had a pair of extremely low scoring affairs played out in front of the NBC cameras including last night’s 13-7 verdict in Washington. In a heavy-hyped rematch of the NFC Championship back on Thursday, both the Saints and Vikings high-octane attacks struggled in what essentially was a very sloppy contest. National-TV coverage of week-one wraps up this evening and according to the posted totals it is the early contest that offers the most “value” for the totals player. Of course Baltimore has always been regarded nationally as one of the league’s premier defensive contingents led by the very vocal Ray Lewis. The record-setting Ravens stop-unit was led for a solid decade by the same Rex Ryan who is now the outspoken head coach of the Jets. Both Ryan and his former star player actually have had a war of words in the national press leading up to this evening’s opener. To make a long story short Ryan led the Jets to the AFC Championship a year ago primarily due to a stifling defense led by star Darrelle Revis who will be in uniform tonight following a lengthy contract holdout. But while defense is on the minds of most this evening, it is worth considering that both sides have added OFFENSIVE talent during the offseason. Baltimore now has star wide receiver Anquan Boldin in the fold and the ex-Cardinal has recently been joined by Seattle’s leader in receptions T.J. Houshmandzadeh who shocking was let go by the Seahawks. The Jets will operate a full season with the same Braylon Edwards who began last campaign as the #1 wideout in Cleveland. At some point Edwards will have to fight for catches when former Steelers #1 receiving option Santonio Holmes completes a league-imposed drug suspension. Both Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery need to make statements will Holmes is sidelined. The Jets backfield has been bolstered by LaDanian Tomlinson who is out to prove he is not done and he certainly looked like he has plenty left in the tank during the preseason. In this Ravens/Jets series 3 of the most recent 4 clashes have gone “sneaked” OVER the total with a pair of those contests totaling 37 points on the scoreboard