Bill Biles
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons Total
Play: Over 55
If you like offense then this is the game for you. The Eagles could be the most explosive offense in the NFL. The Falcons with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will also be able to put up a ton of points. Both of these defenses wont be able to stop the offenses from scoring.
Rob Vinciletti
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets -175
The Mets are a solid favorite here as they continue their dramatic flare and win games like yesterday down 3 runs with 2 outs in the ninth. They come home off a 10 game road trip which saw them ad 5.5 games to there N.L. East lead as they chase the LA. Dodgers for home field advantage in Playoffs. Today they have Logan Verrett taking the start to save innings for Matt Harvey. Verrett has been solid this year with a 1.93 era. Nicolino for the Marlins has been decent for Miami but faces a tough test on the road against a vaunted Mets Lineup that has been crushing the ball. The Mets have won 5 of 7 here this season vs Miami and have a league best 13-2 on Mondays. New york has won 26 of the last 35 vs losing teams. For the League wide power system in this game. Home favorites at -140 or higher that were road favorites of -140 or higher win that scored 10 or more runs. These home teams win by an average 602 score since 2004. Look for the Mets to take the opener.
Ray Monohan
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Philadelphia Eagles -2½
The Eagles are a tough team to prepare for, especially in the first week when you have likely been spending a lot of time getting your own players to master the schemes that are going to be using all season long. There is a huge strategic edge for Philly here and even on the road it is worth more than a FG.
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Atlanta.
Philadelphia is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games.
Sam Martin
Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers +2½
The return of RB Adrian Peterson has resulted in Minnesota being talked about a potential NFC dark horse so much, that they are no longer considered a dark horse. Vikings are a road favorite tonight at San Francisco, and we're not exactly sure why. Sure, QB Teddy Bridewater is coming off a pretty good rookie campaign and Peterson is a premier running back in the league, but this is still a team that went 2-6 on the road last year and gave up more points overall than they scored.
San Francisco is due for an improvement after a tumultuous season a year ago which led to the dismissal of head coach John Harbaugh. We're not yet sold on Bridgewater being an elite quarterback in this league - especially on the road - and while Peterson is clearly very good, he faces a solid run defense in the 49ers here. Frank Gore is no longer on the 49ers roster but Carlos Hyde is underrated in our opinion and due for a breakout year. Big overreaction to the offseason moves and preseason results, and Minnesota isn't yet worthy of this praise.
Carlo Campanella
Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings went 7-9 last year despite playing with rookie QB Bridgewater, a 1st year HC Mike Zimmer and without star RB Adrian Peterson. It should be noted that 4 of their 9 losses came by 3 points or less! Now they open HC Zimmer's 2nd season with RB Peterson returning and also adding WR Mike Wallace. They find themselves as road favorites on Monday Night Football against a struggling 49ers team that ended last season on a 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS losing streak. That losing skid forced former HC Harbaugh to head to Michigan University and San Francisco will play their first game behind HC Jim Timsula. With all of the changes in San Fran, like the loss of RB Frank Gore, we're backing Minnesota knowing that they're a perfect 7-0 ATS against non-division opponents behind QB Bridgewater.
Scott Spreitzer
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -125
Houston came through with a huge 9th inning comeback on Sunday and staved off the weekend sweep in Anaheim. Tonight, they'll take a precarious 1 1/2 game lead into Arlington to face the team that's right on their heels, the Texas Rangers. Scott Kazmir starts for the Astros and he's been a little up and down of late. Kazmir has been tagged for 16 earned runs and 41 base runners in his last five starts, spanning 28 2/3 IP. That's a hefty 5.02 ERA & 1.43 WHIP. Meanwhile, Cole Hamels has given up more runs than usual, but he's eating up innings and not allowing home runs. Hamels has pitched six innings or more in each of his last eight starts and he's gone at least seven innings in six of those outings. The key to beating Houston is the ability to keep the ball in the park. Hamels has not allowed a home run in any of his last five starts, spanning 35 innings of action. The Rangers have won five straight Hamels' starts, while the Astros have dropped three straight Kazmir starts and six of his last seven.
Mike Lundin
Astros vs. Rangers
Play: Over 8
The Houston Astros are coming into this contest sitting top of the AL West, 1.5 games ahead of the Texas Rangers. Both teams will play extremely hard here and I think we'll see a high-scoring contest in this all Lone Star State battle.
Cole Hamels will take the ball for the Rangers making his first start against Houston for the year. He's 3-1 with a 4.07 ERA over seven starts since coming over from the Phillies and surrendered four runs on eight hits through seven innings of a 9-6 win at Seattle his last start. The Astros will turn to Scott Kazmir who is 2-5 with a 3.13 ERA in nine starts since coming over from Oakland. He gave up four runs on seven hits through six innings against that very same A's team his last start. The 31 year old southpaw has allowed just seven runs, four earned, over 26 2/3 innings against Texas this year but I think he'll struggle tonight. He'll have to watch out for Shin-Soo Choo who went 3-for-4 with a homer yesterday and is batting .395 over 43 at-bats this month.
Notes
The over is 3-1-1 in Texas' and last five home games vs. a left-handed starter and 3-1-1 in Houston's last five games vs. a left-handed starter overall.
Jim Feist
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: New York Yankees
The NY Yankees have now fallen 3 1/2 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East. The good news though, the Yankees are in first place for the Wild Card spots with a 3-game lead over Texas and four games over the Twins. The Yankees did salvage one game of their four-game set with the Blue Jays, winning Sunday's contest 5-0. NY has now lost six of its last seven games. The Rays are in third place in the AL East, 12 1/2 games back. Tampa Bay lost on Sunday to the Red Sox, 2-0. The Rays have lost five of their last seven games. CC Sabathia starts for the Yankees. He's 4-9 on the season with a 5.16 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Sabathia is 2-6 on the road this year with a .299 opponent batting average. Erasmo Ramirez starts for the Rays. He's 10-5 this year with a 3.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Ramirez has struggled of late, not making it past the fifth inning in any of his last three starts. He's allowed 11 runs over his last 13 1/3 innings. The Yankees need this game to keep a hold on their Wild Card spot. It's becoming more obvious that they likely won't catch the Jays. Sabathia is a wild card here, but I'll take the Yankees as a small dog or at pick'em.
Mr Vegas
Eagles vs. Falcons
Play: Over
The Philadelphia Eagles have a lot to be excited about heading into their season opener tonight at Atlanta. The Eagles had an explosive preseason, outscoring their opponents 83-17 in the first half of their first three exhibition games. But, this isn't the preseason and the Eagles need to show up now in the regular season. Gone from the offensive backfield are Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy. Enter Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray, two players that will be the main focus of this offense. The Falcons enter the season with lots of question marks, especially on their suspect defense and a patch-work offensive line. The Falcons may have to try and outscore opponents with their defense. However, they do have the weapons to do just that with Matt Ryan at QB and some great wideouts, including Julio Jones. Both clubs have high expectations this year and I look for tonight's contest to be an offensive showcase between these clubs. Don't expect to see a lot of defense here. I'm taking the OVER tonight.
Vince Akins
Vikings at 49ers
Play: 49es
San Francisco experienced one of the worst offseasons in recent memory and it will show as the season goes along. However, the public has overreacted to this to an extreme. Don't be sucked into backing a shaky road favorite.
2014 was certainly a disappointing season in itself for San Francisco. While they went 8-8 overall, they were a miserable 4-11-1 ATS for bettors, burning them constantly. Teams in week 1 which covered in no more than 1/3rd of their games last season are 52-3-1 ATS (week=1 and Average(ATSW@team and season)[team and season-1]<.34)
And if this was your average 8-8 team experiencing all these losses, then this line would make sense. However, this is a San Francisco squad that won at least 13 games including playoffs each of the previous four years. Teams which won no more than eight games last season after winning at least 11 (including playoffs) the season prior to that are 41-25-1 ATS (week=1 and Sum(W@team and season)[team and season-2]>=11 and Sum(W@team and season)[team and season-1]<=8).
And this is a team that has not been a home dog since 2011. When they were playing as home dogs they were finding success. The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS (8.4 ppg) since December 2008 as a home dog (team=49ers and HD and line and date>=20081201).
This is not exactly a Minnesota team that has been a juggernaut. Last year, they went just 7-9. Teams which lost at least 9 games last season and are away favorites in week one are 9-18-1 ATS (week=1 and Sum(L@team and season)[team and season-1]>=9 and AF).
There is also the issue of this being a spotlight game. Minnesota has struggled mightily on Monday nights. The Vikings are 0-6 ATS (-14.67 ppg) since Dec 28, 2009 on Monday night.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have a long track record of being the best team in the league on Monday nights. The Fortyniners are 23-5-1 ATS (6.47 ppg) since Oct 14, 1996 on Monday night.
Mike O'Connor
ATLANTA +3 (-115) 27 Philadelphia 28
The Eagles have undergone radical change since Chip Kelly arrived in 2013 and that transformation certainly continued this off-season. A new quarterback, new running backs, a key rookie receiver, several new starters along the offensive line and a remade secondary are generally the sign of a rebuilding team, not one that has won ten games in consecutive seasons. Kelly is creating the team that he wants with the type of players that buy-in and excel within his system with consideration towards the net cost-benefit. Let’s start with the offensive line. Kelly let Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans go (who combined to make over $10 million a year), plugged in more cost-effective alternatives Allen Barbre and Andrew Gardner, and so far through pre-season the line looks very good. Again, it’s only the pre-season and we won’t have the returns on this until we see what happens when the regular season kicks off, but so far so good.
At running back, Kelly brought in two straight line runners in DeMarco Murray and Ryan Matthews who will be more willing to just hit the hole than LeSean McCoy was and are good fits for the interior zone game. At quarterback, Sam Bradford seems to have picked things up quickly and couldn’t have had a better preseason (13-of-15 for 156 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers). He’s been pin-point precise in camp and has built a nice rapport with first-round rookie receiver Nelson Agholor (who will attempt to replace Jeremy Maclin). Chip Kelly has maintained that repetitive accuracy was the most important quality a quarterback could have in his offense and he seems to have found his man in Bradford.
The defense has a chance to be elite. Up front, Philly has one of the best 3-man run stuffing defensive lines in the league in Cedric Thornton, Fletcher Cox and Bennie Logan. Kelly improved the front seven by adding Kiko Alonso to an already very good linebacker group featuring Mychal Kendricks, Brandon Graham and Connor Barwin. Philly finished third in the league last season in sacks with 49 despite lack of sufficient coverage on the back end. The one area that needed to be addressed in the off-season was the secondary, which was a bit of a disaster in 2014. The defense ranked 31st in passing yards allowed, and no one allowed more big plays through the air. The addition of cornerback Byron Maxwell from Seattle should improve this unit and help ease the transition of Walter Thurmond into what is a new position at safety. There are still some concerns with this group, however, as the Eagles still aren’t sure who will replace the departed Brandon Boykin as the nickel corner. They have been discussing having Malcolm Jenkins or Walter Thurmond do it but that creates a hole at safety. This is an area that still appears unsettled.
On the other side, the Falcons have undergone significant change this off-season as well, replacing head coach Mike Smith with Dan Quinn, formerly defensive coordinator with the Seahawks. As a result, we can expect improvement on the defensive side of the ball with the addition of first round pick Vic Beasley playing a significant role. He should immediately help their greatest need - the pass rush. Free agent signees Adrian Clayborn and O'Brien Schofield should also help. Last season the Falcons finished #30 in sacks with just 23 and without any semblance of a pass rush their back end was consistently beaten. Atlanta was dead last in compensated defensive pass plays, giving up 1.2 yards per play more than their opponents averaged. Not a lot has changed there, however, so while a better pass rush should help, there could still be some problems. In this game, facing an Eagles offense that is very good at creating space in the passing game, the Falcons will have trouble.
On offense, the Falcons will continue to rely on the right arm of quarterback Matt Ryan. Ryan has shown how well he has picked up new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's offense this pre-season and his underrated athleticism fits in well with the offenses staple bootlegs and misdirection action. With good protection, Ryan was 6-for-6 for 86 yards and a touchdown in the preseason opener against Tennessee, then went 4-for-5 for 75 yards and a touchdown against the New York Jets as the Falcons' first-team offense looked unbelievable, outscoring the Titans and Jets 31-0 in those first quarters combined. Then in the third game, it all unraveled as they faced the strong Dolphins defensive line. Ryan, who played early into the second quarter, was under constant duress, being sacked three times in 17 snaps while completing just 3 of 7 passes. Again, it’s just the preseason but the Dolphins game illustrated the major concern on offense – the offensive line. The Falcons realize this and just traded for the Titans Andy Levitre, an overpaid guard who has underperformed. Any way you slice it, it’s just a bad unit. The hope is that Shanahan’s scheme can help compensate for those deficiencies and Ryan’s quick decision making will allow him to get the ball out on time. Despite having a poor line last season as well, I rated the Falcons passing offense at #7 in the league and that has a good chance to improve this season. The problem will be running the ball (#25 ranking last season) but Shanahan’s zone scheme coupled with several talented backs should help this unit improve as well.
Matt Ryan is 7-0 SU and ATS in home openers and the Falcons qualify in a 16-4 Week 1 situation that plays on them here. On the other side, although it’s only the first week of the regular season, the Eagles are in the midst of five road games in six weeks, playing their third consecutive away game here after playing their last two pre-season games on the road. My ratings favor the Eagles by 1.2 points but I don’t like the match-ups for the Falcons along the offensive line and in their secondary. That being said, I’ll look for an inspired effort from the Falcons at home and lean with Atlanta plus the points.
Minnesota -2.5 (-115) 22 SAN FRANCISCO 19
The Vikings are on everyone’s hot list of teams that are poised to improve in 2015 and I expect that they will also, but there are a number of concerns heading into the season as well. Let’s start with the good news: the team is in the second year of Norv Turner’s offensive and Mike Zimmer’s defensive systems and as a result, players have an increased comfort level and can just play without having to think too much. That starts with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who showed potential in his rookie year and appears to have improved heading into his second season. He continued to get better as the season progressed and in his first year finished #17 in total QBR, just behind Ryan Tannehill, to offer some perspective. It appears that his progression has continued with impressive preseason performances (29 completions in 35 attempts in his four preseason games). That progression will get a boost this year from the return of running back Adrian Peterson, who missed almost all of 2014 after being suspended. His running prowess will be respected by defenses and a primary beneficiary will be Bridgewater, who’ll see defenses stuff the box, naturally creating larger passing windows. Big plays could result, especially if speedy acquisition Mike Wallace and playmakers Cordarrelle Patterson and Jarius Wright are able to separate and get the ball on the move.
The concern in Minnesota is with the offensive line. The offensive line was a question mark even before right tackle Phil Loadholt went down with a season-ending Achilles injury but now the Vikings will have new starters on the entire right side of the line in guard Mike Harris and rookie tackle T.J. Clemmings. Bridgewater's blindside is also a concern, as left tackle Matt Kalil was terrible in pass protection last season and has declined each of the past two years. In addition, their best offensive lineman and excellent run blocker, center John Sullivan, has been dealing with back spasms and is a question mark heading into this game.
The other concern is in the kicking game where the once reliable Blair Walsh has hit a wall. Walsh hasn’t had a good summer, and has been dreadful in the preseason. He finished the preseason 5-for-11 on field goals with a missed extra point and his decline has some in Minnesota very concerned. Walsh converted just 5-of-10 attempts over the final four games of last season.
Defensively, the Vikings should continue to improve from their #18 compensated defensive yards per play ranking last season and have a nucleus of young talent on all three levels to make that happen. The Vikings had a good pass rush in 2014 (42 sacks for 10th in the league) that may be even better this year. Linebacker Anthony Barr is a rising star and his former UCLA teammate (2nd round pick) Eric Kendricks joins him to team with Everson Griffen (12 sacks in 2014) and Sharrif Floyd to provide a multi-layered pass rush. Minnesota also infused additional talent on the back end with first round selection corner Trae Waynes to work in alongside Xavier Rhodes and impressive 4th year safety Harrison Smith.
In the 49ers, we get a team that barely resembles the one that played just last season. It’s going to be difficult for the 49ers to compete this year with all of the changes that took place this off-season. I detailed those changes in my Season Wins Under recommendation but just to review the many key players that are gone: left guard Mike Iupati, cornerback Perrish Cox, cornerback Chris Culliver, defensive lineman Ray McDonald, wide receiver Michael Crabtree, defensive lineman Justin Smith, running back Frank Gore, linebacker Chris Borland, right tackle Anthony Davis, linebacker Patrick Willis, and of course linebackers Aldon Smith and possibly Ahmad Brooks. These were all high quality players and nearly all of their replacements are downgrades or unknowns. Compounding the loss of talent on the field is the loss of their coaching staff including head coach Jim Harbaugh, offensive coordinator Greg Roman and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, all some of the best in the game.
As detailed, I expect a down year in San Francisco and that begins with this game. We have teams heading in different directions with a talented team on the rise in the Vikings facing a team clearly in decline in the 49ers. With no one believing in them and their backs up against the wall I do expect the 49ers to come out with a spirited home effort in this game and my ratings reflect that (San Francisco -.8). However, the Vikings qualify in a good 38-19-1 Week 1 situation that has me leaning their way.
Jeff Saad
Eagles at Falcons
Play: Over
The Philadelphia Eagles have a lot to be excited about heading into their season opener tonight at Atlanta. The Eagles had an explosive preseason, outscoring their opponents 83-17 in the first half of their first three exhibition games. The Falcons enter the season with lots of question marks, especially on their suspect defense. The Falcons may have to try and outscore opponents with their defense. However, they do have the weapons to do just that with Matt Ryan at QB and some great wideouts, including Julio Jones.
Dave Cokin
Cleveland Indians -135
The Indians are still long shots to make the playoffs as a wild card entry, but they're sure playing like contenders heading down the stretch. The Royals basically clinched the AL Central in April and they've pretty much been on cruise control for some time now.
It's going to be interesting to see how KC responds once the bright lights go back on in October. One of the potential pitfalls of completely dominating a regular season race is an inability to flip the switch back on once the big games finally arrive. That obviously remains to be seen, but one thing that is pretty clear is that the Royals have not been playing great baseball lately.
The Indians were a hot pre-season pick, but took forever to get it together. Fact is, this team just didn't hit enough when it mattered, and now that they've gotten the sticks rolling, it might well be too late to matter.
But the Tribe will certainly be looking to keep whatever hopes they have alive by getting some wins against the Royals. That's hardly a cinch as Edison Volquez has been steady as a rock for KC and is, in fact, having himself a heckuva under the radar season.
Carlos Carrasco will throw for the home team tonight. He got a little roughed up in his first start off the DL following a bit of shoulder irritation. But the good news is Carrasco retuned with the swing and miss stuff intact, and in fact, his velocity was the best it's been all season. I would think that Carrasco should return to his typical form tonight, and if that's the case, it won't be an easy night for the Royals.
Carrasco is one of those pitchers where, depending on which numbers you trust, can fall in one of two categories. Old school data says he's having a very average season. The metrics tell a far different story. In most seasons since I started focusing on the latter aspect of pitching data, Carrasco would be a no brainer here. But this season has not been typical as far as metrics value is concerned and that makes the decision much more difficult.
Nevertheless, I will go that metrics route on the pitching tonight and favor Carrasco. That's in the price already, so it's not like this is a bargain. Make no mistake, part of the down season for saber cappers has come from the fact the oddsmakers are clearly incorporating more of that data into the oddsmaking process than in prior campaigns. But I'm still fairly adept at "reading" the line and this game is a classic example of a price that is guaranteed to attract square dog dollars on the Royals. That has always, and probably will always, be one of my favorite types of plays.
Sharp chalk has been a solid take for me going back to the days when I still had hair, and it was actually dark. That's not the case anymore to be sure, but backing the favorites in spots like this remains the same. I'll be on the Indians tonight.
Vegas Butcher
Minnesota Vikings -2
This one is fairly straightforward. We have one organization in Minnesota that is developing excellent young players, is getting the best RB in the league back hungry this season, and is in the 2nd year of Mike Zimmer’s regime, indicating that improvement is to be expected. We have another organization in San Fran that is in total disarray. They’ve “fired” a top coach in Harbaugh, have two brand new coordinators on both sides of the ball, haven’t had success drafting talent the last 3 or so years, have had to release strong players due to behavioral issues, and have players retiring left and right on them. The ‘toxic’ environment around this team has to be a contributing factor on the team’s mindset coming into this season. With so much talent lost and a total overhaul of the coaching group, I expect a really poor season from the 49ers. And I believe it’ll start off with a big loss at home on Monday Night Football.