Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Over in the Eagles-Falcons contest.
As you can tell by the total placed on this game, both the linemakers and betting public feel this Eagles and Falcons game will be one of the higher-scoring games this first week of the NFL season, and I have to say that I agree with them.
The Eagles preseason was littered with points all over the scoreboard, 133 of them in their 4 preseason affairs this August! I know it is just "practice", but I don't think Philly is going to be grounded here on Monday night.
Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the total, and they have also played 4 of their last 5 September games Over the total. Oh, and the Birds of Philly are also 5-for-5 Over their last 5 Monday night affairs!
Atlanta? The Falcons are 6-1 Over in their last 7 September games, and are also Over in 4 of their last 5 Monday night games contested.
I smell at least 8 combined TD's in this game, and last I checked, 8 x 7 = 56 points, and that would be good enough to take this first Monday nighter Over the total.
3* PHILADELPHIA-ATLANTA OVER
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Philadelphia Eagles, on the road against the Atlanta Falcons. As I release this complimentary winner at Noon eastern, the number I see is -3, and I want you to buy the half point down and lay only -2.5.
I am confident we're going to see Eagles quarterback Sam Bradford and running back DeMarco Murray blend well together. After the game we saw last night between the Cowboys and Giants, you best believe the Eagles will be out to make a statement.
Philadelphia set franchise records for scoring in coach Chip Kelly's first two years as coach, putting up 442 points in 2013 and 474 last season. This is supposed to be the year the Eagles make it to the big time. With two-time defending NFC champion Seattle losing yesterday, the Eagles have the chance to establish themselves as the team to beat in the NFC.
Yes, even after Week 1.
Who else is there? Green Bay. That should be your only answer. But the Eagles and Packers can decide that at the end of the season. For now, it's Philadelphia's job to prove how good it is.
Take the Eagles tonight, as they roll past Atlanta.
1* PHILADELPHIA
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Minnesota (-2) at SAN FRANCISCO
The SMART INTANGIBLE for my play today - It's time to put up or shut up for the Minnesota Vikings, and this just might be the year the rise to the top. They visit the San Francisco 49ers, a team on the rapid decline. This is the final game on the schedule for Week 1. Tonight they'll be looking to make a statement.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is all-pro running back Adrian Peterson, who joins quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, not to mention a pair of the most experienced coaches in the league: coach Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Norv Turner. You're going to see an explosive unit tonight, run all over a depleted and troubled 49ers team that might be the worst team in the NFC West.
In SUMMARY, why this is the SMART PLAY with this game - Is it that hard to conceive that after tonight, the NFC West could look like this:
St. Louis 1-0
Arizona 1-0
Seattle 0-1
San Francisco 0-1
I don't think it's that off base. The 49ers will have a tough time keeping up with teams, and that makes me feel sorry for quarterback Colin Kaepernick. But it's not his fault. The defense is a mess, while the Vikings will have one of the freshest, young stop units in the league.
2* MINNESOTA
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Vikings and Niners to go under the posted total. At the time of this writing, the total in Vegas and offshore is between 41 1/2 and 42.
If you're a Vikings fan and you're expecting Adrian Peterson to come in and go for 150 yards and two TDs, you might want to temper your expectations. Remember, Peterson has been off for a year and he's not getting any younger. While he may be fresh and rested, he's still going to be a tad rusty and will probably need a half to get his feet back under him.
Then consider Colin Kaepernick and his 19 TDs vs. 10 INTs last year and the fact they will no longer have Frank Gore to rely on and you will start feeling less and less confident about points being scored.
There is no doubt both teams will want to run the football (and run it a lot) which usually leads to low-scoring games that tend to finish under the total.
Take the UNDER as your free play of the day.
2* MINNESOTA-SAN FRANCISCO UNDER
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the American League East showdown between Boston and Baltimore, as I see a pitchers' showdown here.
Let's start with Rodriguez, who has allowed one earned run or none in 10 of 18 starts since making his MLB debut May 28. The 22-year-old left-hander has a stellar 3-0 record and 1.79 ERA in his last four trips to the mound.
He'll be challenged by hard-throwing Gausman, who pitched well, but wasn’t able to go deep his last time out. He'll be pissed off, too, as the right-hander gave up just one run on six hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Yankees.
Look for these two push one another and this one to stay low.
5* Red Sox/Orioles Under
Brad Wilton
Your comp play winner for Monday is the Over in the Tigers-Twins contest.
Detroit played a double-dip yesterday, and BOTH games against Cleveland went Over the total.
That puts the Tigers on a 48-25-4 Over run their last 78 games played!
Kyle Lobstein sports a 8.04 ERA the last 3 times he has made the start for the Tigers, while Tyler Duffey brings a 3.78 ERA for his last 3 into this series opener at Target Field.
Each of Duffy's last 3 starts for the Twins have landed Over the total, and there is no reason to suspect that this one will be any different.
2 of the last 3 series meetings between the teams in the Twin Cities have also landed Over the total, so play the Over on Monday night as Lobstein and Duffy serve 'em up but good!
4* DETROIT-MINNESOTA OVER
River City Sharps
Dodgers TT Over 4 (-120) Jon Gray hasn't won in his first seven MLB starts and this might not be the best spot since the Dodgers have feasted on Rockies pitching
Marlins TT Over 3 (-140) I know we are getting juiced here worse than a lime in Key West, but think there's too much too like here with the hard 3 number with a team guaranteed to get 9 AB's against Verrett in his second career start
Tigers/Twins Over 8.5 (-110) Lobstein is about as big an auto-fade as we have, but we actually like this game total a little more than the Twins TT as Duffey has been hit or miss for these Twinkies
SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA +3 over Philadelphia
The Eagles ended with a 10-6 record last year while the Falcons went 6-10 and their defense couldn’t stop the marching band. Eagles Coach, Chip Kelly is now in his third year and everything about this team is his doing. Philly Chip has the personnel he wants. He has successfully purged everyone you can remember from the pre-2013 team. In the preseason, Philadelphia’s game plan was to play one of three ways; fast, faster and fastest. Philadelphia put up 36, 40 and 39 points in the preseason in its first three games before sitting all their regulars for the preseason finale against the Jets. Adding DeMarco Murray, the Eagles are likely going to be more of an offensive force than most. Kelly’s mission is to run two or three times more offensive plays than the opposition. The market loves offense and they love the Eagles. In fact, in Week 3 of the preseason Philadelphia opened as a 2-point choice in Green Bay against the Pack. By game time the market hammered that number up to -6. Philly didn’t disappoint either, taking a 25-0 lead in the first quarter and cruising to a 39-26 victory. Prior to the preseason, Philadelphia was listed as a 1-point favorite in this game.
All of that is very nice but Philly Chip is attempting something that has NEVER been successful at this level. All offense and no defense is not a winning formula. Chip Kelley is one of many great college coaches that have tried their craft at the highest level. Most have failed miserably like Nick Saban, Steve Spurrier, Dennis Erickson and Bobby Petrino, who skipped out of Atlanta to go coach Arkansas two days after being embarrassed by the New Orleans Saints on "Monday Night Football. Chip Kelley’s Oregon Ducks were the greatest show on turf and he’s trying to recreate that at this level. It could work here and it could work for many games but that’s not what this is about. This is about playing against an overhyped favorite taking back some points on a Monday Night. Philly may score 42 points here but don’t be surprised if Atlanta scores 45. The Eagles defense is likely going to be awful. They paid very little attention to addressing it in the off-season while stockpiling their offense.
Over the past decade or so, Atlanta’s offense has never been the problem. They have some of the best offensive weapons in the game and they probably have the better QB in this contest too. Defensively, the Falcons paid plenty of attention to that weakness in the off-season by bringing in defensive minded coaches and going after players to help them. New Coach, Dan Quinn has strong connections to some of the fiercest defenses and defensive lines that this league has ever seen. Atlanta’s defense has the pedigree and reputation of being soft, easy to score on and just being brutal overall. Quinn and his coaches have been working furiously to correct that. You'll see the difference tonight in the Falcons relentless pursuit of the ball carrier. The Falcons will get their points; there is no question about that. What that means is Philly is going to have to score a lot, avoid mistakes and turnovers but when you are running so may offensive plays in a game, something bad is bound to happen, especially on the road. We get a good number at home in a high percentage play and it’s something we’re rarely going to pass on.
SAN FRANCISCO +115 over Minnesota
Speaking of overhyped and over-bet teams and one need not look further than the Vikings. Or perhaps San Francisco’s stock has fallen so drastically that the market is attacking them. Either way, if you play the Vikings here, you are 100% going with the worst of it. Prior to Week 1 of the preseason, San Fran was favored by three points for this opener. Today, the Niners are taking back two points. So, why all the disdain for the 49ers? There are actually a few reasons. San Fran is perceived as a team in disarray. They dumped Jim Harbaugh and his coordinators but then just promoted Jim Tomsula to head coach and Geep Chryst to offensive coordinator. The 49ers lost Frank Gore and replaced him with Carlos Hyde and brought in Reggie Bush. They also lost Stevie Johnson and Michael Crabtree and acquired Torrey Smith. Their defense was hard hit by surprise retirements as well. San Fran may in fact be a complete mess but as of right now, without even one game under its belt in this new regime, the 49ers cannot be a pooch at home to Minnesota.
Even when the Vikings were good, they were poor on the road. This team has been bad on the road for 30 years. Over the past two years, Minnesota has two wins in 16 road games and now they’re a road favorite? Teddy Bridgewater had a good year last season and the Vikes were coming on. That's nice but let’s see how Bridgewater does in his second year when teams have had all summer to watch films and study this guy. We’ve seen dozens of rookie QB’s struggle miserably in their second year so we’re not ready to label this guy the real deal just yet like the rest of the media. Adding to Minnesota’s appeal is the return of Adrian Peterson. Yeah, he was great two years ago but two years is a long time ago and missing an entire season can’t help. It would come as no shock to us whatsoever if the Vikes came out and played a solid game and won by a field goal or more. Of course that could happen. However, we wouldn’t underestimate a team that is carrying a huge chip on their shoulder entering this opener. The players read and hear the same things we do. The media has written off the 49ers and so has every person that follows this sport. Our objective is to stay away from predicting outcomes. Instead, we are always looking for an edge in the number when it comes to value. In that regard we are 100% sure we’re getting a great number here on the 49ers because 4 weeks ago, when everyone knew the same thing about these two teams as they do today, the 49ers were spotting three points and -150 on the money line. We’ll play accordingly.
SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA BAY -107 over N.Y. Yankees
C.C. Sabathia is a lefty. The Rays have been whacking southpaws for two months plus. Sabathia has a 5.13 ERA this season and a 4.50 ERA over his last five starts. On the road, Sabathia has a 4.67 ERA, a 5.22 xERA, an oppBA of .299 and he’s allowed 10 bombs in 61 innings. In 13 road starts, Sabathia has two wins. C.C. Sabathia is a very small pooch here because he pitches for the New York Yankees. If he played on the White Sox, Mariners or 80% of the teams in this league, he would come in here with his year-to-date numbers and be a significant dog. The Yankees have one win in their last six games.
Meanwhile, Erasmo Ramirez has allowed 48 hits in 64 home innings. At the Trop, Ramirez has a 2.99/3.23 ERA/xERA split. In his last start, he struck out nine Tigers in five innings but a series of bizarre plays in that fith inning forced him out. Up to that point he had allowed one hit and zero runs. Ramirez is an up and coming, under the radar quality pitcher with a ton of upside, filthy stuff and breakout potential. C.C Sabathia is an aging, overweight, fading pitcher with zero upside and bad knees. Sabathia is priced here like it’s 2012.
PHILADELPHIA +150 over Washington
You’ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants in awe of Washington’s win in Miami yesterday to salvage a game in the three-game series. Yesterday it was Max Scherzer against Brad Hand. That was Washington’s first win in a week. After getting swept by the Mets to essentially end its season, Washington scored one run in the first two games of its three-game set in Miami. This team has mentally checked out and it’s also worth noting that both Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper are likely going to be sitting this one out. Zimmerman is out for sure, while Harper left yesterday’s game after a collision. Regardless, the Nats are just a horrible team to be spotting prices like this with right now. Jordan Zimmermann's performance this year isn't quite as elite as it was in 2014 but it has still been a very good year for him. We’re not going to attack Zimmerman here, instead we are attacking the Nationals, a team that has thrown in the proverbial towel.
Aaron Nola has performed largely as advertised thus far. He displayed very good control at each stop along the way through the minor league system. Through his first 61 innings at this level, Nola has a BB/K split of 15/51. That’s more than satisfactory. Nola’s K-rate increased with each minor league level and he’s picking that up too after a slow start with 28 K’s in his last 31 frames. Lacking an overpowering fastball or truly dominant swing-and-miss offering, Nola relies on movement and the ability to command his pitches to retire batters. He’s also a fierce competitor that studies this game like nobody else. History is lined with pitchers without overpowering stuff that have gone on to Hall of Fame careers because they have good stuff, great attention to detail and the ability to outsmart hitters with an assortment of pitches that keep them completely off balance. Greg Maddux comes to mind and more recently, Dallas Keuchel fits that mold. Nola is a long way from any of that but he’s on the right track. He’s also very worth backing at this price against the disinterested Nationals.
Jesse Schule
Boston vs. Baltimore
Play: Over 8.5
The Orioles took two of three from the Royals over the Weekend, and they hit a whopping 10 home runs in the series. Baltimore has seen the total go over in nine of it's last 12, while the Red Sox have trended over at a rate of 10-3-1 in it's last 14 road games. We could see more fireworks at Camden Yards on Monday night. Eduardo Rodriguez will toe the slab for the Sox, and he's coming off consecutive impressive outings. Rodriguez (9-5, 4.05 ERA) allowed one run on eight hits over seven innings in a 6-2 home win over Philly his last time out. He's been far better at home than he has been on the road, and he's struggled against Baltimore going 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA in two starts. The Orioles hand the ball to Kevin Gausman, who failed to get out of the third inning in his last start in Baltimore. Gausman (2-6, 4.43 ERA) allowed four runs on eight hits over 2 1/3 innings in a no decision versus Tampa Bay. He's 1-5 with a 4.18 ERA in his last 10 starts. If the Orioles can't get to Rodriguez, they could do some damage against Boston's bullpen than owns a 4.42 ERA on the season, ranking among the worst in the majors.
Larry Ness
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
The New York Yankees ended a 10-game homestand with a 5-0 win Sunday, avoiding a dreaded four-game home sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays. However, the team's 4-6 homestand damaged its AL East title hopes and New York now opens a nine-game road trip which will feature three games at Citi Field against the Mets and end with three games at Rogers Centre against the Blue Jays. Up first will be the 69-73 Tampa Rays, who dropped their FIFTH in seven games with Sunday's 2-0, 13-inning home loss to Boston (note: Tampa Bay has lost 11 straight in extra innings!).
However, the Yankees open the series with former ace C.C. Sabathia (4-9, 5.16 ERA), who is enduring a career-worst, EIGHT-start winless stretch. Sabathia is 0-1 with a 4.43 ERA in eight outings since the All-Star break, although the Yanks have split his starts, going 4-4. He pitched last Wednesday for the first time since August 23, wearing a new, tighter brace that better holds the ligaments in place in his surgically repaired right knee, and gave up three runs over 4.2 innings in a 5-3 loss to Baltimore. However, the left-hander is 6-13 with a 4.47 ERA in 26 starts against Tampa Bay since joining the Yankees in 2009 with New York going 3-10 in his starts at Tropicana Field. It’s also not good news for C.C. & the Yanks that the Rays are 18-11 vs lefties at night, averaging 5.2 RPG.
Tampa Bay will counter with Erasmo Ramirez (10-5, 3.96 ERA) who is winless in his previous four starts, allowing four runs in three of those outings (6.20 ERA). Ironically, while his road ERA is 5.13, he’s 5-1 in away starts, compared to 5-4 at home, where is ERA is 2.66. That said, Ramirez is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two starts and three relief appearances in 2015 against New York, winning BOTH starts with an 0.82 ERA. My “gut” says Yankees will be lucky to hold on to one of the two wild card spot in the AL and this road trip could be ‘the beginning of the end.” We’ll see.
Ari Atari
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -130
I don't like betting on the Dodgers but since we won a good one yesterday with Texas, we can reduce the size of this wager and take a shot at Adrian Gonzalez, Clayton Kershaw and company. The fact is that the Rockies struggle against left-handed pitchers with a 7-26 record against them. We all know that Kershaw is ridiculously good. We need LA to continue feeding off the hot bat of Gonzalez who picked up his game recently and his .391 avg in 12 games against the Rockies this season proves the type of offensive leadership he can provide in this series. The line is crazy high for the moneyline but there's a shot at the -1.5 here if LA can get the Rockies to their season average that stands above a 5.00 ERA. In comes the rookie Jon Gray with Colorado going 1-6 in his last 7, as he continues to go winless on the season at a 5.17 ERA.
Jimmy Boyd
Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: Minnesota Vikings -1 -120
I think there’s some great value here with Minnesota laying less than a field goal. I’m one of those that believe the Vikings are a team on the rise and a potential sleeper in the NFC. It’s not just because Minnesota is getting back AP, I really like what I saw last year out of rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. I’m expecting big things in his second year, especially with defenses having to load the box to try and slow down Peterson, who I believe is going to come out with a huge chip on his shoulder after missing all of last year.
I also don’t think the Vikings defense is getting enough praise. Minnesota made a huge turnaround on that side of the ball last year and it can be credited to head coach Mike Zimmer, one of the best defensive minds in the league. Just look at how much the Bengals defense dropped off last year after he left. The Vikings added even more talent to the defense, using their first three picks on defensive players. First round pick Trae Waynes (CB) and second round pick Eric Kendricks (LB) are both going to play big roles right away.
While the Vikings look to be even stronger on both sides of the ball, the 49ers have major concerns on both offense and defense. San Francisco parted ways with veteran running back Frank Gore, which is a bigger loss than people make it out to be. They are also not nearly as strong up front on the offensive line, which is going to make it that much harder on Colin Kaepernick and the offense to score a lot points.
As for the defense, they lost a number of key pieces to what made that unit so good. Most notably at linebacker. San Francisco went from having one of the best linebacker corps in the NFL with Brooks, Willis, Bowman and Smith. The only 1 of those 4 starting tonight is Bowman and he missed all of last year with an injury.
It’s not just the loss of talent on the field that has me concerned with the 49ers. It’s the fact that they lost one of the better coaches in the league in Harbaugh and replaced him with Jim Tomsula. Even if the 49ers play spirited in front of their home fans on MNF, they are outmatched in just about every aspect of the game in this one.
Will Rogers
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians -138
The Cleveland Indians are hot, and they took two of three in a home series versus the Tigers over the weekend. They host Kansas City tonight, and the Royals are really struggling. They've lost seven of their last nine overall, and it wont get any easier tonight facing one of the hottest pitchers in the majors.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Indians hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco, who has given the Royals fits this season. He's 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in two starts against Kansas City, and he's posted a 2.92 ERA in eight starts since the All Star break. The Royals counter with Edinson Volquez, who has surrendered six runs on eight hits over nine innings in two starts against Cleveland this year.
2. Home Cookin' - The Indians have won seven of their last eight at Progressive Field, and they've won four straight against right-handed pitchers.
3. X-Factor - Cleveland has hit .270, scoring an average of more than five runs per game over their last 17 games.
TJ Pemberton
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Philadelphia Eagles -3
I believe that this game is going to be a bit closer than what most people think. Money is coming in on the Philadelphia Eagles and with good reason. This offense is for real and should be able to put it on the field and fire on all cylinders here tonight in Week 1. Sam Bradford may not be able to stay healthy the entire season but tonight he is healthy and has more weapons than most offenses can dream of having. Murray, Mathews, and Sproles should be able to open up the play-action and leave some openings for Bradford to find.
The Atlanta Falcons should not be overlooked as they are at home here tonight. Matt Ryan has two Pro-Bowl WR's to target and a new OC who should bring some excitement to this offense. Both teams should be able to score here tonight but the Eagles will be able to score in bunches and should have the momentum. I look for the Eagles to break away and win this game by 10 points.