Jack Jones
Oakland A's -113
The Oakland A's are showing great value as small road favorites against the Chicago White Sox in Game 1 of this series Monday. Neither team has anything to play for at this point, but I am siding with the A's because of their decisive edge on the mound.
Sonny Gray is not just Oakland's ace, he's one of the best starters in all of baseball. The right-hander has gone 13-7 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.002 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 8-3 with a 1.72 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in 14 road starts. He only gave up two earned runs in seven innings in his lone career start against Chicago last year.
John Danks is certainly a below-average starter in this league. The left-hander is 7-12 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.377 WHIP in 26 starts this season. He is actually coming off a complete game against the Royals, and fatigue could play a factor here in his next start back from it.
The A's are 7-2 in Gray's last nine road starts. Oakland is 10-4 in Gray's last 14 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The White Sox are 5-17 in their last 22 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The White Sox are 2-10 in Danks' last 12 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Brandon Lee
A's vs. White Sox
Play: Under 7½
Love the value we are getting here with the total set at 7.5, as this game has a pitcher's duel written all over it. Oakland will send out their ace in Sonny Gray, who has a 1.72 ERA in 14 road starts and a 2.57 ERA in his career against the White Sox. Chicago's John Danks' has a solid 3.42 ERA in 13 home starts and is coming off a 1-run complete game at KC in his last outing. Danks also owns a 2.40 ERA in 12 career starts against the A's. UNDER is 10-2 in Gray's last 12 road starts in the 2nd half of the season and 10-1 in Danks' last 11 starts with 9 or more days of rest.
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays -106
The Tampa Bay Rays have a big advantage on the mound tonight and should be bigger favorites over the New York Yankees, who have lost five out of six coming in. Erasmo Ramirez is 10-5 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 5-4 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in 10 home starts. He'll be opposed by C.C. Sabathia, who is 4-9 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.454 WHIP in 25 starts. Ramirez has owned the Yankees this season, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in two starts against them, allowing just one earned run over 11 innings. Sabathia has given up 8 earned runs over 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Rays. The Rays are 9-2 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Yankees are 2-8 in Sabathia's last 10 road starts against the Rays.
Bob Balfe
Eagles/Falcons Under 55
The Eagles come into this season with high hopes, but let’s look at what we know for tonight’s game. For starters 55 points is a mid-season total. This is a line based on these teams playing with last year’s talent and lack of it on defense in certain areas. The Eagles are starting a new QB and a new RB with a few new players filling in on the offensive line for guys that were staple guards for years in Philadelphia. Atlanta was awful on defense last year and now has a new defensive coordinator that is going to work wonders for this team. Atlanta has a brand new offensive line with young faces on it. The veterans on this line were not playing for this team last season. I think the Philadelphia front 7 is going to be very good this year and should contain the Falcons offense enough to keep this a low scoring contest. Now let’s face it, this could be 42-30 final and I look like I don’t know what I am talking about because these night prime time games always seem to find their way over the total (Dallas/NYG last night). You really can’t predict bounces of the football that might lead to points or take points off the board. People bet over plays with no logic at all and have been cashing in on prime time for a few seasons now with ease. There is no crystal ball to winning any wager. Look at the games we had this weekend. All five picks were covering with 5 minutes left in the game and three of those plays collapsed on us. We could have been 5-0 with ease this weekend, but that sometimes is the way it goes. The season is young and players have not clicked yet with each other. This is a lot of points even though it does not seem that way because we have been spoiled with high scoring prime time games the last few seasons. I vowed to never play UNDER picks on night games anymore, but that type of logic hampers you from making cash and makes you one dimensional. Let’s hope for some early season jitters and offensive penalties. Take the Under.
Orioles -125
Who wants it more? Both teams are in a race for a late wildcard push. This loser of this series is done. I think the pitchers are about even. Gausman has pitched well at home and I believe this is the time of year where bullpens make or break you. Boston’s bullpen is not very good. Take Baltimore.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta +3.5
Fast starters? Not the hurry-up Eagles....the Eagles are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games in September. As fun as the offense was to watch in preseason, the real games begin now. And the Philadelphia defense has been awful under Chip Kelly, and has a lot of new faces. He dumped three of four starters in the secondary, and they still look soft up front. Kelly's move to trade Nick Foles for QB Sam Bradford from the St. Louis Rams comes with many concerns. The quarterback has a steep injury history, and Bradford will be returning from his second ACL tear. And leading receiver Jeremy Maclin was allowed to walk in the offseason. While there are question marks surrounding this Eagles squad, they run into a talented Atlanta team welcoming a new coach, so emotions will be high for the home team, on the field and in the stands. New Coach Dan Quinn takes over after running the Seattle Seahawks defense (and running it well). The defense adds sack artist rookie Vic Beasley and CB Jalen Collins, the team's second round pick. Defensive end Adrian Clayborn was brought in, and in preseason he displayed flashes of the explosiveness and power that made him a first round pick by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back in 2011. In free agency, the Falcons upgraded their linebacker situation by adding Justin Durant, Brooks Reed, and O’Brien Schofield. The Falcons already have a nice looking young cornerback group. The Atlanta offense is solid, fifth in passing with 284.6 yards per game, 12th in scoring with 23.8 points per game. They’ve ranked sixth, seventh, and fifth in passing the last three years behind QB Matt Ryan (28 TDs, 14 INTS, 4,494 yards) and WR Julio Jones (1,593). And new OC Kyle Shanahan brings in an outside-zone blocking scheme, looking for better balance to control the ball and the clock. The Falcons are 5-2 ATS against the NFC, and the place will be sky high for their new coach.
Steve Merril
Yankees / Rays Over 8
New York will begin a 3-game series in Tampa Bay on Monday night. The Yankees will start CC Sabathia who is 4-9 with a terrible 5.16 ERA and an ugly 1.45 WHIP in 25 starts for New York this season. Sabathia comes into this game in poor current form; he has allowed 9 runs, 13 hits, and 10 walks in his last 14 innings of work. In his last start against Tampa Bay back on May 11th, Sabathia gave up 4 runs on 6 hits in 7 innings of work. Asdrubal Cabrera (5-14), Logan Forsythe (6-12), Evan Longoria (24-61), and Grady Sizemore (3-10) have all had success versus Sabathia. Tampa Bay's offense is in good current form as they've scored 4 runs or more in six of their last seven games. The Rays have scored 35 total runs in their last seven games overall.
Tampa Bay will start Erasmo Ramirez in this game. Ramirez comes into this game in poor current form; he has allowed 11 runs and 18 hits in his last three starts. Ramirez has earned a horrendous 6.75 ERA and a woeful 1.58 WHIP in his last 13.1 innings of work. Ramirez will face a New York offense that is in excellent current form. The Yankees have scored 5 runs or more in four straight games. Overall, the Yankees are scoring 4.9 runs per game on the road, and they are averaging 5 runs per game inside domes this season. We expect a high-scoring game between the Yankees and Rays on Monday night.
Brady Kannon
San Francisco +2.5
Minnesota put together a very good second half of the season last year and I don't think there are many people around that don't think new Head Coach, Mike Zimmer, has this team headed in the right direction.. but the fact is they still finished 7-and-9. This team was not a playoff team last year and I feel they will be hard pressed to make the post season this year. I do expect The Vikings to be an improved team this year. I believe a very well rested Adrian Peterson will come out this season with a vengeance. He in a way, has something to prove. I have to believe he wants to shed the nightmare ordeal that was last season and make people forget his mistakes by being that much more impressive on the field this year. But.. is Minnesota a team, like them or not to improve this year, one that deserves to be favored on the road on Monday Night in a season opener? Has this team ascended that fast and just because many are expecting them to be better - have they risen to the ranks of a team that should be favored on the road - yet? Now, I know a ton has gone on in San Francisco over the off season but does all of that dictate that a 7-and-9 team should be favored by basically a field goal over a team that won 8-games?.. and I have seen one 3-out there and my guess would be by game time, you will see more.. because the general perception of The 49'ers is so bad, and there is the thought of Minnesota improving, that you will see this line hit 3. Now, that means this will have been a 7.5 point move since it opened earlier this Summer. Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, Chris Borland, Michael Crabtree, Stevie Johnson, Ray Mcdonald, Mike Iupati, Jim Harbaugh.. losing all of these guys to either retirement, law enforcement, The Big House, or free agency.. is that worth 7.5 points? I think you can say YES but it is the other side of the equation that gets me and that is, are The Vikings.. along with all of the turmoil in San Francisco, still is Minnesota a team worthy of this swing?
I think these are tough questions to answer and for me it is a game that I will observe and see how each team responds to opening night, the beginning of their season, Monday Night, Tomsula as the new coach.. I will watch this one and hope to answer some of these questions but if I had to right now, I would lean with taking the points with The 49'ers because I believe their public perception outweighs the perceived Vikings improvement this year.. and thus I think the line has swayed too much in favor of The Vikings.. and waiting for this line to top out at 3, maybe even 3.5, would be the move to make with San Francisco.
So consider this a strong lean on San Francisco at +3 or better. I also lean OVER the total of 41.5.
OC Dooley
Nationals / Phillies Under 7.5
The offense of Washington apparently dodged a major bullet yesterday as the major league leader in slugging percentage Bryce Harper was involved in a nasty collision. While Harper passed the necessary concussion tests arguably he is NOT at 100-percent efficiency. The Philadelphia offense suffered a major blow yesterday losing infielder Cesar Hernandez to a broken thumb which will require a surgical procedure. His season (.272 average with 19 stolen bases) has now come to an official end and is now the second Phillies infield prospect to hit the disabled list. It was about a month ago when thirdbaseman Maikel Franco was hit on the wrist by a pitch and has not played since. In his initial 3 months as a major leaguer Franco had an excellent .830 on-base percentage to go along with 13 homers and 48 runs scored. On the mound for Washington is Jordan Zimmerman (2.36 ERA last six starts versus the Phillies) while Philadelphia counters with Aaron Nola (2.10 HOME ERA in five major league assignments)