Tony Weston
Bad call on the Bengals as they piss down their leg to open the season.
That’s fine because I’m coming through tonight as I’m taking the Over on the Chargers-Raiders Monday nighter in Oakland.
The Total for this game is set at about 42 1/2 or 43 points, depending on where you’re playing this. It won’t matter because these two will cruise well past that number.
Consider that the last three times these two have met the Over has gone 2-0-1 as they have totaled, on average, 44.6 points per game. In their last two meetings in Oakland, the Chargers and Raiders have totaled, on average, 46.5 points per game.
Keep in mind, also, San Diego has seen the Over come in 7 straight September games and has seen it go 4-1 its last five games on the road and overall. The Raiders, on the other hand, have gone Over the Total in 7 of their last 8 games in September and have seen go 4-1 their last 5 season openers.
These two will score in bunches again tonight as they go Over the Total in this one.
3♦ CHARGERS-RAIDERS OVER
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the NY Yankees over the Anaheim Angels. If there's one thing the Yankees MUST do it's beat the Angels. This team has been their Achilles heel for several years now, and after suffering a three-game series sweep right before the All Star Break, the Yankees would like nothing more than to return the favor. For whatever reason, the Angels are that team that represents kryptonite for the Yankees. New York has struggle mightily against the mighty halos over the last few years and every time they draw them in the playoffs, Anaheim somehow finds a way to win even with lesser talent. That's why Joba Chamberlain has to pitch the game of his life tonight, and I believe he will. The Angels have a comfortable lead over Texas in the West, but would still like to fight the Yankees for the best record in the American League and a couple of wins in that series could do it. I believe the Yankees are more well-rounded than Anaheim and will put together a nice, much-needed win Take the Yankees. Free play of the day on the NY Yankees with Joba Chamberlain on the hill.
2♦ NY YANKEES
Frank Jordan
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay has lost 11 in a row and have a shot at finishing under .500 after making it to the World Series last year. Tampa Bay is sending young lefty flame thrower David Price who is 1-0 in his only start this year against Baltimore who is a great team to play when in need for a win. Despite coming off a series win in New York the Orioles lost Sunday by 10. Look for Tampa Bay to bust out against Baltimore and ride the left arm of Price in the game. Play Tampa Bay
LT Profits
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
For some godforsaken reason, this is the third time in four years that the inept Oakland Raiders have hosted the nightcap of the opening week Monday doubleheader, this time vs. the San Diego Chargers.
The Raiders should be one of the most boring teams to watch this year, as they have absolutely no passing game, meaning any success the offense will have has to come on the ground. Now granted, the running back position may be the strength of the Oakland team as they have several talented back in Darren McFadden, Michael Bush and Justin Fargas, meaning that they are capable of pulling an upset or two this year if facing a team that cannot stop the run.
The problem here is though that a healthy San Diego defense is not one of those teams. The Chargers have two of the best run-stoppers in the league in Jamal Williams and Luis Castillo, meaning that much better teams than the Raiders will have trouble getting a running game going against these guys. Thus, Oakland may have to rely on the arm of JaMarcus Russell to generate points tonight. Translation: the Raiders may not score more than single-digits.
Now the Chargers are very balanced offensively, as unlike last season, LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates are ready to go from the get-go. That said, we look for a huge game by LT tonight as Oakland will have trouble stopping the run this year, unless recently acquired holdout Richard Seymour decides to report to the team. This will also serve the purpose of taking time off the clock, which is conducive to the Under in a total set in the 40s.
Sure, the Chargers are capable of approaching this total by themselves if they keep their foot on the gas, but there is no need to run up the score here vs. an outclassed division rival that they will have to face again later in the year. Thus, look for this game to settle Under this posted total.
Pick: Chargers/Raiders Under 43
Matt Fargo
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Over 9.5
Tampa Bay has had a brutal roadtrip as it has been swept by both the Yankees and Red Sox to completely take it out of the playoff chase. The offense has been abysmal during these seven games as the Rays have scored two runs or fewer in all seven games, averaging a mere 1.1 rpg but that all changes tonight. To their defense they have faced some incredibly tough starting pitching but Monday they get to face David Hernandez who has been shelled over his last two outings, allowing 11 runs in just 7.2 innings. He has a 5.05 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the season and that WHIP jumps to 1.73 in his seven home starts. A large WHIP means plenty of baserunners and that is exactly what Tampa Bay needs to get out of its funk. On the other side, the Rays send Davis Price to the mound and he has been pitching a lot better of late. He is still however struggling on the road as he is 1-4 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in nine starts. He has been lights out in daytime starts but at night he has a 5.69 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 12 performances. Baltimore is hitting .290 at home and the ‘Over’ is 13-6 in the Orioles last 19 games a home underdog of +110 to +150. 3* Over Tampa Bay Rays/Baltimore Orioles
Craig Trapp
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Play: Buffalo Bills +10.5
Search around by game time this spread will most likely be even higher. This is a huge trend play!
Must know betting trends:
-Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1.
-Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in NE.
-Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
-Patriots are 1-10 ATS in last 11 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
-Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
-Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
-Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Almost every trend points to the Bills covering. Don't be fooled by preseason games either BUF 1st team offense struggled but as we have seen this year preseason doesn't mean much. The Patriots have a ton of new starters on defense with no veteran players to give that leadership they once had. The Bill keep this one close and NE plays just good enough to get the win but not the cover. SCORE NE 28 - BUF 20
MTI Sports
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: San Diego Chargers
The Raiders are 0-12 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since October 20, 2002 at home when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS (-15.0 ppg) since December 02, 2002 on Monday Night Football. Consider laying the points.
Tony Mathews
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Houston/Cincinnati Under 7.5
We expect a low-scoring game as the Houston Astros face-off against the Cincinnati Reds in Monday's MLB contest.
Today's game will feature two starting pitchers who have been pitching very well as of late. The Houston Astros (Wandy Rodriguez) has a 2.25 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Cincinnati Reds (Bronson Arroyo) has a 2.11 ERA in his last 3 starts. We expect both these starting pitchers to pitch good games (once again) today.
These teams are known for playing low-scoring games when they meet. In fact, the UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings between these teams.
Take the Houston Astros/Cincinnati Reds Under 7.5
HEANTAI SPORTS
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction : Tampa Bay Rays
Rays are 4-1 in David Price’s (7-7, 4.65 ERA) last 5 starts against a team with a losing record. The Rays are 7-2 in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing record and they are 8-3 in their last 11 trips to Baltimore. The Orioles are just 0-7 in David Hernandez’s (4-7, 5.05 ERA) last 7 starts as an underdog and they are also just 0-6 in Hernandez’s last 6 starts against a team with a winning record. Hernandez has been hit hard in his last 2 starts and I look for the Rays bats to come alive against him Monday night.
BIG AL
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Certainly the Rays had hoped that things would be different for them and their young ace lefthander David Price at this point in the season. Price has been okay for Tampa this season, going 7-7 with a 4.65 ERA, but whatever positive aspects Price has experienced from his first full season in the Major Leagues, they've pretty much gone to waste on this team as the Rays are all but out of playoff contention. Opposing him will be a Baltimore rookie starter (one of several), in righthander David Hernandez. Hernandez struggled in his last outing Tuesday in Boston, lasting just 2 2/3 innings, giving up six runs on four hits (four home runs) and two walks with three strikeouts. He has given up 17 home runs in his past eight outings, including seven round-trippers in his past seven innings. Unlike Price, things have gone mostly poorly for Hernandez in his first full season, and in his last five starts, he is 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA. When Hernandez starts, opposing teams tend to score runs in bunches. In his last five starts, the opponents have scored a total of 36 runs or an average of more than seven runs per game. And when the Rays and O's meet at Camden Yards, runs are plentiful as well. In the last three games played in Baltimore (all this season), a total of 40 runs have been scored and all three have gone over the total.
PLAY OVER
Masterbets
Bet on the BILLS to cover the spread
90% of tonight's side betting action is likely to be on the Patriots to cover and maybe the public will get this game right. However, sports betting is about value and if there is any value in the current line (Patriots -13 points at most sports books) then it is on the Bills.
This is a division rivalry game and Buffalo are not exactly an 0-16 team. Yes they have problems on offense but they also field a solid D that could cause the vaunted Patriots some problems, especially with Brady making a comeback on delicate legs.
If anything we would recommend not betting on the side winner for this game. There is BIG value betting on the Over/Under however, and that is our "High Roller" premium pick for the night (available as the featured pick on this website). But if you're going to have a small wager on a team here consider Buffalo + the points in an ATS upset.
Randall the Handle
Pittsburgh +2.22 over LOS ANGELES
The tag has heavy influence on this choice, as Jon Garland should never be this big a favorite over anyone. The Pirates may not win here but these huge pups have been hitting all year at a decent rate and this one is as possible as any of those. Also consider that the Dodgers are coming off a weekend in San Fran, it’s biggest rival and a letdown is a distinct possibility against the enthusiastic Pirates. Daniel McCutchen has looked decent enough in his only two starts, going six innings in his first start in Cinci and following that up with a seven-inning stint against the Cubbies. His BAA in those two games was .269 and he also whiffed 10 batters in those 13 innings combined, not to mention inducing 23 groundouts. So yeah, I’ll take my chances against Garland because he’s about as hittable as any pitcher in baseball. Play: Pittsburgh +2.22 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +2.30 over DETROIT
David Purcey returns to the Jays rotation after a four-month stint in the minors and hopefully he’s learned something. One thing is certain; Purcey has the talent and is very capable of doing well at this level. He’s struck out 84 batters in his 90 major-league innings and he’s thrown a few gems as well. He has done an outstanding job against the Tigers, going 1-0 in three starts against them with an ERA of 1.56. Furthermore, the Tigers are laboring with one win in its last six games and that includes being swept by the Royals and losing the first two games of this series being pulling out a win yesterday. Justin Verlander is tough for sure but the Jays know him well and this intruder has a good history of beating good pitchers and losing to poor one’s. At this price, the Jays are definitely worthy of a bet. Play: Toronto +2.30 (Risking 2 units).
NEW ENGLAND -10½ over Buffalo
With Tom Brady back in the fold and after missing the playoffs last season despite an 11-5 record, one has to figure the Patriots to come out blazing and they couldn’t have handpicked a more ripe opponent. The Pats may not be as strong as everyone thinks and they’ll get exposed at some point, especially on defense but it’s not going to happen here. The Bills might be the worst the NFL has to offer. They have an inexperienced and very vulnerable offensive line and that means the Patriots will be coming at Trent Edwards all night long. Edwards won’t have the luxury of handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch, who is serving a three-game suspension. This is an offense that couldn’t move five yards in the preseason and subsequently fired its offensive coordinator about a week ago. This is also a team that lost eight of its last 10 a year ago, they have not won here since 2000 and they’ve lost by an average of 20 points per game to the Pats over that stretch. One has to wonder how on earth are the Bills going to score any points, let alone enough to cover. This one could get ugly. Play: New England -10½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
VEGAS EXPERTS
Florida Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals
Plenty of value here considering the Cards were just swept at home by Atlanta, and have one of their backend arms out of the rotation going tonight. Look past that. Florida is just 2-11 on the road vs. NL Central teams this season while St. Louis is still 43-22 is their last 65 games overall and have not lost four games in a row in over three months. St. Louis took two of three earlier in the season from Florida and six of the last eight here at Busch. The Marlins just lost two of three to lowly Washington.
Play on: St. Louis
John Ryan
LAA Angels vs. New York Yankees
Play: LAA Angels
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Angles as they face the NYY in what may prove to be an AL Championship series preview. This is a make-up game from May 3rd. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 36-22 making 30.3 units since 1997. Play against home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher - after one or more consecutive overs facing an opponent after 6 or more consecutive unders. Anaheim is a perfect 6-0 (+7.0 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game in the second half of the season this season; 6-0 (+7.0 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season. Angels are also a solid 21-8 (+12.4 Units) against the money line versus an AL team with an on base percentage of .345 or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Weaver is 18-5 (+11.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. Weaver has had great success against several of the key players in the NYY lineup. Jeter is 2 for 14 batting 143; Swisher is 3 for 19 batting 158, Teixeira is also 3 for 19; Damon 3 for 15 batting 200; Matsui is batting 125. Overall, Weaver has allowed a 227 BA to the current members of the NYY in their respective careers. Take Anaheim.
Tom Freese
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
San Diego is 7-0 their last 7 games as home favorites and they are 7-1 their last 8 games vs. righty starters. The Padres are 25-9 their last 34 home games as favorites of -151 to -200. The Padres are 6-1 in the last 7 starts made by Kevin Correia. Arizona is 0-6 in the last 6 starts made by Billy Buckner. The Diamondbacks are 16-39 their last 55 games as underdogs and they are 3-13 their last 16 road games vs. righty starters. Arizona is 1-9 their last 10 games overall and they are 2-7 in Game 1 of a series. PLAY ON SAN DIEGO -