Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -130
The Rays have lost 11 in a row, but 8 of those losses have come to division leaders Boston and New York. The Rays have an excellent opportunity to end their terrible skid tonight and I look for them to get it done. The Rays are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Baltimore, 25-9 in the last 34 meetings overall, and 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Plus, they are 6-2 in David Price's last 8 starts vs. the American League East. The O's have lost 9 straight Monday games, are 0-5 in David Hernandez's last 5 starts, and 0-7 in his last 7 starts as an underdog. Take Tampa Bay.
WUNDERDOG
Buffalo at New England
The Patriots welcome back Tom Brady at QB here, and the hopes are very high for a team that went undefeated during the regular season with a healthy Brady behind center in 2007. They are laying double-digits here to a Buffalo team that they have dominated recently. New England has won ten of the last twelve games between these two teams here at home, going 8-3 ATS in the process. The public is jumping on New England asl 79% of the public is betting the Pats tonight. The Bills offense prior to this season was missing one big player, and they hope that Terrell Owens will be that player. Yes, Marshawn Lynch is out for their first three games, but Fred Jackson has proven to be a very competent back, getting lots of carries even when Lynch was in the lineup. But can they compete with a team that was able to go 11-5 last year without their best player, and 16-0 with him the year before? Remember, they don't need to win this game, just keep it to 10 points or less. The total is set at 47.5. The UNDER has hit in 16 of the last 20 games in this series and under Bill Belichick, the Pats are 40-27 UNDER as a home favorite. My computer matchup for this game (not my official pick) has New England winning 28-19.
San Diego at Oakland
It doesn't get much worse in professional sports than the Raiders. This team has lost more games in the past five years than any other, and they can't seem to get above five wins in a sixteen game season. In the preseason this year they have looked horrid again, losing by a collective score of 79-109. So, it's not too much of a surprise that they are a big home dog in their opener. Especially when you consider who they are facing. The Chargers went just 8-8 last year but they still made the playoffs. Their offense is as good as it gets and many expect them to have a cakewalk to the playoffs this season. Is there any hope for Oakland here? Well, at the end of last season, they showed signs of hope, putting up three very good games offensively (26, 27, 31 points in final three games). This should be the season that JaMarcus Russell and Darren McFadden do some damage. This Oakland team is just 13-33 ATS over the past six seasons at home, but they are getting double-digits here. The total is set at 43. My computer matchup for this game (not my official pick) likes San Diego to win 25-18.
Jimmy Boyd
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have lost 11 in a row, but 8 of those losses have come to division leaders Boston and New York. The Rays have an excellent opportunity to end their terrible skid tonight and I look for them to get it done. The Rays are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Baltimore, 25-9 in the last 34 meetings overall, and 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Plus, they are 6-2 in David Price's last 8 starts vs. the American League East. The O's have lost 9 straight Monday games, are 0-5 in David Hernandez's last 5 starts, and 0-7 in his last 7 starts as an underdog. Take Tampa Bay.
Rocketman
San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: San Diego Chargers-10
San Diego is 9-3 ATS last 3 years against division opponents. Oakland is 4-12 ATS at home the past 3 years. San Diego is 4-0 SU and ATS overall vs Oakland the past 3 years. San Diego is 14-3 ATS at Oakland since 1992. Chargers are 21-7-4 ATS in their last 32 vs. AFC West. Chargers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC. Chargers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Chargers are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games on grass. Raiders are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 home games. Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC West. Raiders are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog. Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1. Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Oakland. Chargers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Favorite is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings. This should be a major mismatch. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight!
Mike Rose
San Diego Chargers -10.0
The San Diego Chargers finished the 2008 season with a flurry, winning their final four games to back into the playoffs. From there, they nearly snuck all the way to the Super Bowl, but ultimately came up a tad bit short. Theres a big question as to whether or not they can repeat this season, even though the AFC West seems to be a lot weaker now that QB Jay Cutler is no longer in Denver. The Chargers have dominated the football betting proceedings for a long time now, going 21-7-4 ATS in their L/32 games in division.
For the Oakland Raiders, the goal in 2009 is to take baby steps back towards respectability. QB JaMarcus Russell will be in for a make-or- break season after showing that he has what it takes to be an NFL quarterback in 2008. After HC Tom Cable took over last year for the departed Lane Kiffin, the silver and black started to play significantly better football. They even won their final two games of the year outright, knocking off Houston as a seven-point favorite, and erasing Tampa Bays playoff hopes with a 31-24 win at Raymond James Stadium on the final day of the regular season.
Ten points is a heck of a lot to be covering in the first week of the season, especially on the road.However, this is the same Oakland team that was highly touted coming into last season that laid a massive egg against Denver 41-14 at home on the first Monday night of the season. Things may have changed a little bit for the Raiders, but theres probably a reason that this line has jumped from 7.5 to 10.Lay the wood and hope for the best.
Doc’s Sports
Take Cincinnati Reds Houston Astros UNDER 7.5
Neither team hit the ball in their respective games yesterday. That shouldn't change much in this spot. Wandy Rodriguez takes the hill for the visiting Astros. He has a 1.80 ERA in his last 5 starts. In his 3-starts against the Reds this season, his ERA is 0.50. Bronson Arroyo has turned his season around. His last nine games were all quality starts. His ERA was 2.19 in those. Looks like a dead UNDER.
Timothy Black
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -10½
Look for New England to come out firing with star QB Tom Brady back in the fold and a Monday night football audience tuning in! The Pats are a double digit chalk but the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two squads. Also, the Patriots are 6-2 ATS over the last 8 games against Buffalo overall, including 5 straight covers! Sit back and watch New England roll to their 6th straight winning ticket against their AFC rival Monday night!
EZWINNERS
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Play: San Diego Chargers -10
The Raiders look like they are still one of the most dysfunctional organizations in pro sports with new head coach Tom Cable punching assistant coach Randy Hanson. In the pre season the Raiders didn't look very sharp at all. Quarterback JaMarcus Russell was very erratic and first round pick Darius Heyward-Bey can't catch the ball. It looks like another long season for Oakland. The Chargers offense should continue to light up the scoreboards while I expect the defense to be improved with Sean Sean Merriman back in the mix. The Chargers are 11-1 against the spread in the last twelve meetings. Lay the points.
Nite Owl Sports
Game: Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Pick: New England Patriots -10.5
We believe that NE will be pumped up for this game and will want to show a nat. tv audience that they are indeed back to their 2007 form that made them the point spread darlings of the decade for the first half of that season, when they went 8-0 ATS, before the line maker caught up with them and they ended up the season just a so so 10-9 ATS, doing an "0fer" ATS in their L6 games, incl 0-3 ATS in the playoffs. And that motivation should translate into Pats getting a solid win tonite in their home opener, over a sagging Bills team that has shown very little in the pre-season, especially on offense (and recently fired their offensive co-ordinator), and will likely miss their top RB Marshawn Lynch, still serving a league-imposed suspension for violating the NFL’s “personal conduct” policy (for doing a Plexico Burress imitation, by being caught with a concealed weapon when pulled over for a suspected driving violation during the off season).
But just a hunch isn't enough support (at least for us) for any official pick, even a one unit pick, so we checked ATS results of several "representative games" during NE's magical 16-0 season of 2007, which we believe is more comparable to this season, now that Captain Tom (Brady) is back at the controls. We looked at 7 of their 8 home games that year, not incl the home game against a Miami team so pathetic it did not even belong in the NFL that year. We also looked at Pats' HG LY against Buffalo, even though Captain Tom was not at the controls in that game. And in those 8 home games we looked at, Pats were 6-2 ATS, with an average MOV (margin of victory) of 19 points. And in the four games that year in the ATS range of this game (where Pats were favored by 10-17 points), they went 4-0 ATS, with an average MOV of 28.5 ppg. And one of those ATS covers was a 38-7 flogging of these Bills, as 16.5 point faves. And speaking of Pats-Bills games, Pats are a dominating 10-0 SU in their L10 games against Buffalo, and 8-2 ATS. Moreover, without Lynch to keep the pressure off of Bills QB Trent Edwards, it figures to be a long night for Edwards, especially with TO likely barking in his ear on the sidelines about not getting enough passes thrown his way. But the fact that both of those recent series ATS losses by the Pats were at home, wins of just two points in 2006 and five in 2005, gives us some concern.
And while the two double digit home faves (NO and Balt) were 2-0 ATS Sunday, we also are cautious about laying double digits in the NFL, especially with home faves, being mindful of the poor 11-20 ATS record posted LY by home faves of 10> points. Moreover, we can’t just assume that TY is going to be a replay of 2007 for NE, just because QB Brady is back.
So we will limit this pick on NE to one unit at -10.5, and we suggest getting your bet in early, because with the public’s love of faves, the remembrance of NE’s great early season run in 2007, and the fact the this is MNF will likely cause the line to rise during the day. So if you can get NE at -10 or buy down to -10 at odds of -125 <, then do it and play NE at two units, but on the other hand, this pick is a bit “iffy” at -11, and we would pass on NE if the line goes higher than 11.
Glenn McGrew
Oakland at Texas
This is a high total for a game where one team cannot hit and two pitchers who throw strikes on the hill. Veteran Brett Tomko has walked just 13 in 48 innings and has an offense behind him that is 17th in the majors in runs scored. Texas righty Scott Feldman (16-4) has been an ace all season, with a 3.46 ERA, plus! a 3-0 record and a 0.47 ERA his last three starts! This total is too high Play the Athletics/Rangers Under the total.
Lenny Del Genio
TEX -190 vs OAK
High price, worth the risk. Rangers starter Scott Feldman has been virtually untouchable of late, winning each of his last four starts, all on the road, by a combined 22-1 margin! His ERA over that span is 0.40! Texas is a perfect 8-0 when he starts in division play this year (2.88 ERA), including two wins over Oakland. The A's have no chance in this game. Take Texas.