Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, September 15

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Seattle at LA Angels
The Angels open up a series tonight against the Mariners and come into the contest with a 6-0 record in Matt Shoemaker's last 6 starts as a favorite. LA is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-135)

Game 901-902: Washington at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 14.296; Atlanta (Santana) 15.852
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+110); Over

Game 903-904: Miami at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Cosart) 14.697; NY Mets (deGrom) 16.190
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-150); Under

Game 905-906: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Simon) 14.559; Cubs (Wood) 13.149
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); N/A

Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Hernandez) 14.426; Colorado (Bergman) 15.312
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 909-910: San Francisco at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.798; Arizona (Miley) 14.306
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-135); Over

Game 911-912: Philadelphia at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Williams) 15.207; San Diego (Cashner) 12.873
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-165); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+145); Under

Game 913-914: Toronto at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Stroman) 16.070; Baltimore (Chen) 15.190
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Over

Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Capuano) 15.374; Tampa Bay (Colome) 16.750
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Under

Game 917-918: Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.182; Minnesota (Swarzak) 14.000
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-185); Over

Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.369; Kansas City (Shields) 14.442
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+185); Under

Game 921-922: Cleveland at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (McAllister) 14.737; Houston (McHugh) 16.130
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115); Over

Game 923-924: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.198; LA Angels (Shoemaker) 17.387
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 3; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-130); Under

Randall the Handle

Eagles (1-0) at Colts (0-1)

The Eagles got off to a dubious start, having to rally in the second half to take down the meek Jaguars. In the process, Philadelphia lost two starting offensive linemen, including Pro Bowl guard Evan Mathis. The scramble was on this week to find replacements to protect QB Nick Foles. Not ideal conditions for visiting an Indianapolis squad that has been lights out on its home turf, winning 14 of 17 here under Andrew Luck’s tutelage and failing to cover in only four of those games. Philly did little to address its secondary issues from a year ago — that should suit Indy’s explosive passing game just fine. TAKING:Colts -3

Dr Bob

Philadelphia (+3) 27 INDIANAPOLIS 26

Jacksonville supporters must have been feeling pretty good at halftime last week as Jacksonville held a commanding and very much surprising 17-0 lead against the Eagles in Philadelphia. In what was truly a tale of two halves, the Eagles woke up in the third quarter and put up 34 unanswered points in the second half, coasting to the eventual 17 point win and cover as a 10 point favorite. After giving up two early touchdown passes in the first quarter, the Eagles defense played well, holding the Jags to 306 total yards at just 4.3 yppl for the game. Eagles quarterback Nick Foles struggled to start the game but settled down in the second half and led the charge for the Eagles with two touchdown passes of his own. Meanwhile, the Colts didn’t start the season the way they would have liked, facing a 0-24 deficit before rallying late to come up just short, losing 24-31. Indianapolis ended up outgaining the Broncos 408-364, driven by a strong passing performance from Colt QB Andrew Luck.

The Colts will be focused to play well at home on the national stage on Monday night knowing that a loss drops them to 0-2 on the season, but the Eagles will present some unique challenges. Philadelphia’s offense spreads the field and creates space better than any other offense in the league and the Colts will need all hands on deck to slow it down. Unfortunately for Indianapolis, it looks like LB Jerrell Freeman and DT Art Jones are banged up this week and 2013 sack leader Robert Mathis is now out for the season with a torn Achilles. Mathis’ presence will be missed as Erik Walden has no burst and Bjoern Werner is a work in progress. The key players on this defense are now the cornerbacks, who will have to play well as the Colts get creative in generating a pass rush. Meanwhile, stopping the Eagles high speed run game will be a challenge. The Eagles were my #1 rated rush team in 2013 and picked up where they left off in the opener against the Jaguars, gaining 145 yards at 4.5 ypr. However, the Colts will have the benefit of playing against an Eagles offensive line that has been shuffled recently with injuries and suspensions creating a very different lineup.

The Colts are always dangerous off a loss and Andrew Luck has yet to lose consecutive regular-season games in his NFL career. He's 10-0 in games following a loss. However, Chip Kelly has faced Luck three times in college, winning two. Luck’s numbers against Kelly’s defenses are 69-of-107 (64.5%) for 848 yards, seven touchdowns and four interceptions. There are situations that go both ways in this one and my ratings see this game as even. Based on the numbers, I’ll lean with the Eagles plus the points.

DAVE COKIN

WASHINGTON NATIONALS AT ATLANTA BRAVES
PLAY: ATLANTA BRAVES +110

Stephen Strasburg is one of the better pitchers in all of baseball. He’s got great control, pure swing and miss stuff and can be absolutely dominating when he’s got his best stuff. Yet, in spite of the fact the Nationals are going to win the NL East and might well be playing well into October, Strasburg is stuck at .500 with a flat 11-11 ledger. Being one who’s metrically inclined, that 11-11 is pretty misleading. But for whatever reason, Strasburg continues to be unlucky as far as the W/L record is concerned.

Part of Strasburg’s problem is his weird record against the Atlanta Braves. One would think this should be an ideal opponent for Strasburg. The Braves have a bunch of grip it and rip it players who have trouble making consistent contact. Strasburg is about as good as it gets when it comes to collecting K’s. But he just cannot beat this team, and in fact, his numbers against the Braves are pretty mediocre.

Strasburg has faced the Braves four times this year, and Nats are 0-4 in those games, with Strasburg absorbing three of the losses. Over the past two seasons, the Nats are 2-7 when Strasburg pitches against the Braves. The two wins didn’t involve Strasburg. He was ejected after one inning in one of those games, and pitched only two innings in the other Washington win. Make no mistake, the Braves are Strasburg’s main nemesis.

Ervin Santana goes for the Braves tonight, and this guy has been money in the bank at home. The Braves have won each of his last eight home starts with Santana standing 7-0 in that stretch. His numbers against the Nats this season are not good at all, but that’s the only fly in Santana’s ointment right now.

This is do or die for the Braves. They’re not just one game over .500, and Atlanta is four games out of the wild card with only 13 opportunities for wins remaining. So make no mistake, tonight’s game is a must win for this squad. They’re off a wrong way sweep at Texas, which amounts to an unforgivable sin at this point. The Braves now play ten straight home games, and they’ve been a decent team in the host role. I think it’s realistic to offer that they need to win at least eight of these ten battles to have a chance at one of the two wild cards, so they’ve simply got to win tonight or it might be lights out.

Must win sure doesn’t mean will win. But the Braves have the right home pitcher going tonight in Santana, and for reasons I cannot figure out, Atlanta owns Strasburg. I’m going to try to coax the desperately needed win from the Braves tonight.

Art Aronson

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Toronto Blue Jays +115

The visiting Jays come in red hot and will send their best hurler to the hill in Marcus Stroman (10-5, 3.61 ERA); Stroman pitched a three-hitter for his first career complete game and shutout Monday against the Cubs and comes in having had an extra days rest as he was pushed back in the rotation. The young right-hander has won three straight starts and has allowed just four runs over his last 22 2/3’s innings of work. The Orioles will go with Wei-Yin Chen ( 15-4, 3.59 ERA) who has pitched very well over his last three starts as well, coming away with two victories in that span. Chen however has struggled against Toronto, owning an 0-2 record with a very pedestrian 5.76 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. And note that the Jays have already had some success at Camden Yards this season with a 4-3 record and come in very confident, winning 8 of their last 11 overall. The Orioles won a close one against the Yankees late last night on prime time ESPN and I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot. I believe Stroman offers value here, I’m giving him the nod on the mound and I think that’s enough to pull the trigger on the visitors today.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Ray Monohan

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Toronto Blue Jays +115

The Blue Jays are not going to catch the O’s but they need these games more than Baltimore and they have their best pitcher starting in this one. That may be a lot of praise for a rookie but if you have been watching Marcus Stroman, especially lately, than you know it is true. Further to his benefit the O’s will be missing Chris Davis and have yet to see the explosive young righty. Put it all together and the Jays take the opener.

Jonathan Jorcin

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres -157

The Philadelphia Phillies season is not getting any better and Jerome Williams mystical turnaround seems to have come crashing down his last time surrendering four runs in five innings of work. His season has had three stops, Houston, Texas, and now Philadelphia, where his ERA is at 5.44 and his record is 5-6, anything but impressive. While he seems to have struggled most of his year, Cashner has been hurt.

Since coming back though, he has been really sharp. He has a 2.40 ERA on the year, and every time out on the mound he gives the Padres a chance to win. Cashner will be able to shut down the Phillies, and 6 solid inning with the lead all but guarantees a win. The Padres have only lost 1 game in the 57 in which they led after 6.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Washington Nationals -116

The Nationals have won 7 of 8 as a road favorite off a road favored win if they scored 4 or less runs. They fit a nice system that has won 14 of 15 times for road favorites off a road win, vs an opponent off off a road favored loss and scored 4 or less runs like the Braves. Atlanta has lost 9 of 12 this month . The pitching favors the Nationals too as Strasburg has a 2.29 era in his last 3 starts. Santana for the Braves has a 5.29 era in his last 3 starts. Look for the Nationals to take the opener.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Bill Biles

Eagles vs. Colts
Play: Over 54

Both teams have to 5 offenses and middle of the pack defenses. Andrew Luck should be able to shred this Eagles defense apart with Wayne and Hilton. The Eagles can score in a hurry as they put up 34 points in a half. Look for this game to be an offensive battle.

Ben Burns

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres -158

After suffering a painful loss on Sunday, the Phillies should be ripe for the picking tonight in San Diego. This is a team that I won with both Friday and Saturday, but their bid for a third straight win failed yesterday when Jonathan Papelbon came in and blew the game, allowing four runs in the ninth.

This is a much better Padres team than the one the Philies swept back in June. That series was contested in Philadelphia. Since being swept there, San Diego has basically been a .500 team. At the time, the Phillies were catching them in their worst stretch of the season.

The Padres have actually been on a major roll at home, winning 70% of the time there going back to the end of the 1st half of the season. They are coming off a 2-7 road trip, but still are on a 10-2 run as a home favorite.

I like San Diego starter Andrew Cashner. He has a 1.54 ERA at home. The last time we saw him was on the road where he delivered seven strong innings and gave up just two runs in a win over the Dodgers. In four starts since returning from the disabled list he has good numbers, he's allowed only 7 earned runs.

I can't say that I like Philadelphia starter Jerome Williams as much. He's allowed 9 runs in 10 innings his last two starts. His ERA on the road is 7.84.

Ben Burns's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Angels

How the AL West has changed since the All Star break. It was just mid-July when the Oakland A's where leading the West by 1 1/2 games over the Angels. However, since then, the Angels have gone 36-19 and taken a commanding 10 game lead over the A's in the West. You would think the Angels would put the engine into cruise control to the playoffs, but NO, despite losing Sunday they have won nine of their last 10 games. One of the Angels best will toe the rubber here on Monday in 27-year old Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker is 15-4 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season. Even more impressive is that Shoemaker has allowed just four earned runs over his last 32 1/3 innings of work. Shoemaker has also struck out 119 this season against just 24 walks. Meanwhile, Seattle will have to have its mark set on a Wild Card spot. Right now the M's trail both Oakland and Kansas City by just one game for a playoff spot. Hisashi Iwakuma will at least give the M's a shot here on Monday with a nice 14-7 record, 3.11 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. It's a bit disconcerting that Iwakuma has seen his ERA go up from 2.57 on Aug 19 to 3.11 now mainly because of four straight sub-par performances. Still, this should be a excellent pitching matchup. I'm going to stick with the hottest team in baseball here and take the Angels with one of the best pitchers in baseball.

EZWINNERS

Philadelphia Eagles +3

There is a lot of love for Andrew Luck and the Colts in this Monday night match up. Maybe due to the struggles of the Eagles to put Jacksonville away in week one parlayed with the late charge that the Colts made in Denver last week. I'm not sold on this Colts team. Their defense is below average and this still don't have a running game to complement Andrew Luck and the passing game. The Eagles can run the ball and should be able to keep this Colts defense guessing all night long. This is also the second of back to back primetime games for Indianapolis. Teams playing in the second of back to back primetime games (Sunday night and Monday night only) are just are 1-17 against the spread in the last eighteen games. Take the points.

Jesse Schule

Chicago vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City

The Royals are reeling after dropping all three games in a home series versus Boston, but they look good to bounce back tonight with their ace on the mound. They host the White Sox, who are just 29-43 on the road.

John Danks will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's winless in his last eight starts. Danks (9-11, 5.05 ERA) was rocked for seven runs on 11 hits over just 4 2/3 innings at Minnesota in his last start on the road. He's 5-6 with a 5.83 ERA in 15 starts on the road, and he's also surrendered 10 home runs in his last 10 starts. Eric Hosmer is 7-for-14 lifetime versus Danks.

The Royals hand the ball to James Shields, who has been hot lately. Shields (14-7, 3.13 ERA) has tossed 15 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out 14 in consecutive wins over Detroit and New York. He's pitched well against the White Sox, going 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three previous meetings this season.

Kansas City will be pulling out all the stops tonight, as they look to close the gap in the battle with the Tigers for the AL Central.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Jimmy Boyd

New York Mets -137

I'll gladly take my chances on the Mets at this price at home with one of the most underrated starters in the league in Jacob deGrom taking the mound. DeGrom has a 2.69 ERA and 1.154 WHIP over 20 starts and has been even better than that at home, where he brings in a 1.46 ERA and 0.989 WHIP over 9 starts.

Not to mention deGrom's got a 0.43 ERA and 0.810 WHIP over his last 3 starts and a 0.90 ERA and 1.150 WHIP over 3 career starts against the Marlins. New York is 8-2 in his last 10 starts overall, 5-0 in his last 5 home starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus a team with a losing record.

We also find a solid system in play that tells us to fade Miami. Underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 who are hitting .255 or worse on the season against a starter with a ERA at or below 3.00 with a starter of their own with a WHIP of 1.000 or better of his last 3 starts are just 12-55 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 82% system in favor of the Mets.