Will Rogers
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres -155
Two teams with little left to play for than pride will open a four game set tonight as the San Diego Padres will host the Philadelphia Phillies. The Padres finished August off in style, but have now dropped seven of their last nine games. All of those have been on the road though, and I think they're worth the price tonight as they're a much stronger team in San Diego.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Phillies will hand the ball to Jerome Williams (5-6, 5.44 ERA) who's been hit hard lately, as the 32 year old has surrendered eight earned runs on 16 hits including three homers over 10 innings in his last two starts. He's struggled on the road this season, showing a 6.05 ERA over 16 appearances, four starts. The Padres will counter with Andrew Cashner (3-7, 2.40 ERA) who's been great at home this season, posting a 1.54 ERA over nine starts. The right-hander may only be 3-5 under the lights, but his 2.27 ERA is worth a better record, and the Padres should be able to provide a good offensive support tonight.
2. Home cookin' - The Padres have won six of their last nine home games, and are 40-31 at Petco Park for the season.
3. X-factor - Cashner has only allowed four hits over 31 at bats versus this Phillies team.
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays +113
The Toronto Blue Jays (77-71) are essentially in a must-win situation from here on out. They trail the Kansas City Royals by four games for the final wild card spot in the American League. The Baltimore Orioles (89-60) have essentially wrapped up the AL East Title and may find it hard to be motivated the rest of the way.
Marcus Stroman has been brilliant as a starter this season for the Blue Jays. He has gone 9-5 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.089 WHIP over 18 starts this year, being much more effective as a starter than a reliever. Stroman is 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in his last three starts.
Wei-Yin Chen is having a solid season for Baltimore as well, going 15-4 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in 28 starts. He has been slightly worse at home, going 7-2 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 14 starts. Chen is 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in two career starts against Toronto.
The Blue Jays are a very profitable 36-33 (+10.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. Toronto is 10-4 in its last 14 games overall. The Blue Jays are 9-2 in their last 11 games with a total set of 7.0-8.5. Toronto is 6-1 in its last seven games as an underdog.
Steve Janus
Cincinnati Reds -110
This is a great spot to back the Reds as a small road favorite against the slumping Cubs. Chicago has dropped 8 of their last 9 overall. Cincinnati on the other hand has turned it around of late, going 5-4 in their last 9 after an awful stretch.
The big key here is the starting pitching matchup. The Reds' Alfredo Simon is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.974 WHIP over 4 career starts against the Cubs. Hard to not like his chances of winning against the struggling Travis Wood, who has a 8.02 ERA and 1.783 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Wood also has a less than impressive 4.59 ERA and 1.407 WHIP over 14 home starts in 2014.
Key Trends - Cincinnati is 21-5 in their last 26 games played at Chicago, 7-1 in Simon's last 8 road starts vs a team with a losing record and 9-2 in his last 11 starts against the NL Central. Cubs are 9-21 in Wood's last 30 starts as a home underdog, 7-16 in his last 23 vs the NL Central and 0-5 in his last 5 when he's had 7 or more days of rest.
System - Favorites with a money line of -110 or higher who hitting .250 or worse as a team against a starter with ERA of 4.20 to 5.20 (NL), with an OBP of .300 or worse over their last 15 games are 113-50 (69%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
Dave Price
Houston Astros -118
The Astros have won nine of 14 overall, including four straight at home, and I expect them to continue their solid play behind a gem from McHugh. The right-hander has quietly had a sensational season, posting a 2.79 ERA in 23 starts. He's given up just one earned run in eight of his last 10 starts and only two earned runs in each of the other two starts during this stretch. The Astros are 5-1 in McHugh's last six starts and 4-0 in his last four home outings. McAllister hasn't made a start in the majors since July 31 and had struggled immensely prior to being sent down. He has a 5.97 ERA on the season and a 6.27 mark on the road. The Indians are 2-8 in McAllister's last 10 starts.
Nick Parsons
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals -1½ -105
I am playing on the Royals -1.5 runs for two simple reasons, superior pitcher and superior team.
The Royals are going with “BIG GAME” Shields. Shields is 14-7 on the year with a 3.13 ERA. Shields is on a career-best 18 1/3 scoreless innings streak. He gave up two hits in seven innings against the Tigers in his last outing, getting his second straight win. In his last 13 starts he is 6-3 with a 2.08 ERA. In his Career against the White Sox, he is 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA. He has given up four runs in 13 innings in two starts in Chicago this year. In one start at home he gave up one run and five hits over seven innings.
The White Sox are trying to avoid their ninth loss in 10 road games. The White Sox will be going with John Danks. He is 9-11 on the year with a 5.05 ERA. The Sox have scored a total of ten runs in his last 7 outings losing all seven. He is 0-5 with a 7.01 ERA in his last eight starts.
Chicago hasn't provided much scoring lately for Danks (9-11, 5.05), totaling 10 runs while losing each of his last seven outings. The left-hander hasn't won since July 25, going 0-5 with a 7.01 ERA in his last eight starts. However, Danks’ 6-0 with a 2.58 ERA in 14 career starts against the Royals and has a 1.90 mark in nine outings at Kauffman Stadium.
The White Sox have dropped eight of 12 matchups, including six of the last seven by a 35-12 margin.
I am playing on Shields and to hold the Sox hitters at bay and for the Royal bats to light up Danks in this game.
King Creole
Eagles / Colts Over 54
Tonight's MNF game opened at 52.5 points. At last look, the line had risen to 54 points. Looks like the sharps, squares, and public all want a piece of that OVER tonight. Don't forget that the Eagles defense was ranked DEAD LAST against the pass last season (#32 in the league), allowing 287 yards per game. And it wasn't the Eagles home games that went OVER at such a high rate (only 3-5 O/U / 4.6 ppg). It was the Eagles ROAD games that were the highest scoring. They went 6-2 O/U on the road last year, with an average of 59.1 PPG. That was third highest (behind Denver and Chicago). And as road UNDERDOGS, Philly went a perfect 4-0 O/U. Last week, Philly picked right back up where they left off from last season (31 ppg or more in each of their last four games). And that was all in the second half. If they can score 34 points in one half, the skies the limit tonight. Remember, they played in the first MNF game last season vs the Redskins (final score 33-27).
On the flip side, the Colts return to the scene of the crime. When we last visited Indianapolis at home, it was the Playoff game against the Chiefs in January. We used that OVER as our 5* Playoff Game of the Year. The OU line was 48 points. Both teams combined for a whopping 89 points (final score was 45 to 44). The stage is set tonight for an extremely high scoring non-conference matchup. We're talking fast-paced no huddle offenses, Quarterbacks who can extend plays, and quick points. There is a very good chance that we see 160 or more offensive plays in tonight's game. The COLTS have gone 7-1 O/U in their last 8 games versus > .500 opponents.
MONDAY NIGHT situations…
The Monday night GAME TWO has gone 5-1 O/U when the OU line is > 46 points…
MONDAY night AFC home teams (COLTS) have gone 9-2 O/U since 2003 versus NFC opponents (EAGLES). These games have gone 4-O/U when the OU line is 44 > pts.
MONDAY night AFC home favorites (COLTS) have home 10-3 O/U when playing off a SU loss… vs any opponent off a SU win (INDY). The results improve to 6-1 O/U in NON-division games.
MONDAY night non-division games have gone 5-1 O/U when both teams (COLTS / EAGLES) scored 24 > pts in their last game.
GAME TWO situations…
11-3 O/U last 5 years: All GAME TWO teams off a SU loss but an ATS win (COLTS). Yesterday, three teams were active in this situation (OAK / SD / CLEV)… and they went a combined perfect 3-0 O/U.
Both of these teams went OVER in their first game of the season.
6-1-1 O/U last 4 years: All GAME TWO non-division home favorites with an OU line of > 43 pts… when BOTH teams went OVER the Total in Week One (COLTS / EAGLES).
Indy's off a 7-point road loss versus Denver. Philly is off a 17-point home win versus Jacksonville.
Last season, All FAVS of 2 > pts off a SU road loss of 7 > pts (COLTS) went 6-1-1 O/U versus any opponent off a SU home win of 7 > pts (EAGLES)… when the OU line was 45 > pts.
Don't forget those HIGH-scoring results in non-conference games last year.
In 2013, AFC home favorites (INDY) went a perfect 6-0 O/U versus all NFC opponents (PHILLY) when the line was 45 > points.
This Philadelphia / Indianapolis SERIES has gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in the last five meetings dating back to 1996…
These two teams are a COMBINED 9-1 O/U in their SECOND game of the season over the last five years…
Rocketman
Cincinnati @ Chicago
Play: Cincinnati -110
The Cincinnati Reds travel to Chicago to take on the Cubs on Monday night. Cincinnati is 71-79 overall this
year while the Chicago Cubs come in with a 65-84 overall record on the season. Cincinnati has won 4 of their past 6 games overall while the Cubs have lost 8 of their last 9 games overall. Cubs are scoring only 2.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall where they have a team batting average of only .222. Cubs are allowing 8 runs per game their past 7 games overall where they are allowing opposing teams a huge .358 batting average. Alfredo Simon gets the call for the Reds where he is 14-10 with a 3.48 ERA overall this season. Travis Wood toes the rubber for the Cubs where he is 8-12 with a 5.15 ERA overall this year and 1-1 with an 8.02 ERA his last 3 starts. Cincinnati is 37-14 overall vs Cubs the past 3 years including a very nice 21-5 record when playing in Chicago. Simon is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his four starts vs Cubs in his career. Wood has a 2-5 record in his 9 starts vs Cincinnati in his career. We'll recommend a small play on Cincinnati tonight!
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +3 over INDIANAPOLIS
We’re going to put this week in the bank and pass on this game but that’s not the only reason we’re passing. Were it not for the fact that the league is so hell bent on manufacturing a star out of Andrew Luck by showering a multitude of beneficial calls on the Colts, especially at home (re-watch the Houston prime-time game to see it at its worst) we would be all over the Eagles here. There is no way the Colts defense can stop the Chip Kelly scoring machine in a fair fight. These refs love the spotlight as much as the players do and make some of the most ridiculous calls in prime time games for the home team. If you can get over that, which we cannot, we would recommend taking the points.
We once again have a case of perception being off a bit. Philly struggled with Jacksonville last week and that 17-0 halftime deficit by the Eagles is something the public can’t get out of their minds. Meanwhile, the Colts went into Denver in Week 1 and fell to the Broncos but not before putting together a comeback bid that fell just short. The Colts managed to cover, which at the end of the day is all that matters. Adding to the Colts stock being high is their big 2013 in which they went 11-5 and won a playoff game as well. We wrote up about the Colts in our future wagers section and trust that they are one of the most overvalued teams in the game. Much has been said and written about the Eagles brutal defense but we’re suggesting that Indy’s defense is worse. The Colts won't have OLB Robert Mathis who is done for the year with a torn Achilles tendon and they will sorely miss the 19½ sacks that he generated last year. If Indy fails to get pressure on Nick Foles, he’ll rip them apart with the weapons he has at his disposal. We know Indy’s defense is garbage but we’re not going to judge the Eagles defense until we see them play another game or two. Before the season started, the media told us that Dallas has the worst defense in the NFL but they held San Fran scoreless in the second half in Week 1 and made Tennessee’s offense look non-existent in Week 2 (Titans had 13 first downs the entire game). We’re not saying that Philly’s defense is good; we’re just suggesting that they may not be as bad as advertised.
We saw Kansas City move with ease against the Broncos yesterday but Indy had all sorts of problems doing the same in Week 1. No need for a milk carton. We found Trent Richardson and he's just the same guy we know from last year. He ran for only 20 yards on six carries while Ahmad Bradshaw ran for 15 yards. T.Y. Hilton was anticipated to be the Colts’ primary receiver but he finished with only 41 yards on five catches. Perhaps our perception on the Colts is off but we don’t see them as a strong team. We know without question that Philly can match the Colts offensively and we also believe Philly’s defense is the superior one here. Thinking of spotting the points? We would rethink it and if the Colts do win and cover, it’ll be with the help of the zebras. NO BETS.
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles -1½ +131 over COLORADO
L.A's rotation woes continue to mount. Despite some iffy skills, Roberto Hernandez and Kevin Correia have both given the Dodgers some innings and will continue to be called upon until something changes. Likewise, Dan Haren, who had all but pitched himself out of the rotation until his most recent string of starts. All of these names carry significant risk but this wager has nothing to do with backing Hernandez. It has everything to do with fading the Rockies and Christian Bergman.
The Rockies have scored one run or less in four of their past five games and they’ve lost six straight. Sure, they’re a different animal in Colorado but losing takes its toll and they are still without Justin Morneau, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Bergman has earned the win in two of his four home starts, despite owning an ugly 6.33 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 21.1 innings. A 5.36 xERA and 46% fly-ball rate is not a good recipe for success at any home field, but is especially dangerous at Coors Field. Bergman has some really ugly numbers. He has just 17 K’s in 39 innings or 2.7 K’s per nine. Over his last 24 innings, his BB/K split is 7/7. His swinging strike rate of 4% is not even minor-league worthy. Bergman’s 53% overall fly-ball rate while not allowing a home run screams out that there are dark clouds ahead for this shaky skill set and we’ll put that to the test in this one.
Andrew Lange
Cincinnati at Chicago
Play: Over 7
Under weather conditions but two over pitchers on the hill with Cincinnati's Alfredo Simon taking on Chicago's Travis Wood. Simon has well surpassed his MLB-career high in innings pitched and as a result has struggled post-All Star break with an ERA just under 5.00. I see no reason not to continue a fade/over approach with him as the season winds down. Despite Simon’s high velocity, high K rate per 9 is below 6.0 which speaks to how fortunate he’s been this season (.263 BABIP). Even though Wood shut down Cincinnati a few starts ago this isn't a favorable matchup with Wood showing weaker splits vs. righties (.295/.464) and the Reds with a fair amount of potential from the right side. Wood has been living on the edge for most of the season with a super-high fly ball rate and pitch-to-contact style. Not a huge velocity guy but we've see Wood's fastball dip from 89-80 mph earlier in the season to the 87-88 mph range over the last two months. Even with the wind blowing in and cooler temps I see two very hittable and not-very-trust worthy pitchers on the hill. Enough so to play over the generous total of 7 even money.
Mark Franco
Indianapolis Colts -3
Year 2 of the Chip Kelly regime got off to a shaky start for the Philadelphia Eagles, who faced an early 17-point deficit before roaring back with 34 unanswered points in their season-opening victory over Jacksonville. The Eagles will hope for a better jump out of the gate when they visit Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night. The Colts also dug themselves a big hole in their opener, falling behind by 24 points before a belated rally came up short against Denver. Now entrenched as the starter after coming off the bench to throw 27 touchdown passes and two interceptions last season, Foles had an interception and lost a pair of fumbles in the first half before regrouping to throw for 183 of his 322 yards and two TDs after intermission to rally Philadelphia. Luck has already carved out a niche as the master of the comeback during his short tenure in the NFL and he nearly pulled off another, rushing for one score and throwing for a pair of fourth-quarter TDs en route to a 370-yard passing day last week. The Colts offense will be too much for the Eagles here so lay the field goal.
Bruce Marshall
Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros
Pick: Cleveland Indians
The Indians are almost out of the AL wild card picture, but before consigning the Tribe to the playoff dust bin, let's see what they can do in this midweek set at Houston. The Astros' Collin McHugh has been on an impressive run lately, but Houston did lose to Cleveland by a 3-2 count the last time McHugh started against the Indians on August 23. In fact, the Tribe has won 8 of the last 9 meetings, which will help tjhe cause of starter Zach McAllister.
Jeff Alexander
Atlanta Braves +129
Strasburg hasn't been the same pitcher on the road, where he's 3-8 with a 4.45 ERA, and Atlanta has had his number. He's 3-7 with a 4.61 ERA in 16 career starts against the Braves. The Nationals are 0-4 in his starts against Atlanta this season. The Nats are 1-6 in their last 7 in Atlanta and 12-27 in the last 39 meetings overall. Santana has been strong at home where he has a 3.51 ERA. The Braves are 8-0 in his last 8 home starts.
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Cincinnati Reds against the Chicago Cubs, at Wrigley Field, and I want you listing both Alfredo Simon and Travis Wood in this National League Central clash.
I like my chances with Simon in this one, as he comes in after earning just his second win since the All-Star break, and should have a little momentum behind him. He allowed two runs on five hits over seven innings against the National League Central-leading Cardinals last Wednesday, and now faces the division cellar dweller. And that's a good thing, as the All-Star right-hander is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA in four starts against the Cubs in 2014.
Meanwhile, Wood is in after having his start pushed back a day following a rough start against the Pittsburgh Pirates, which sent him to the clubhouse after allowing seven earned runs and lasting just 1.2 innings. In his last two starts his ERA is 12.85. Even further back, it shows that he's struggled since mid-August, as his ERA is 6.08 in his last five starts.
Take the Reds here and list both.
4♦ CINCINNATI
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is Max Scherzer and the Detroit Tigers on the run line over the Minnesota Twins and Anthony Swarzak.
Scherzer might not win the Cy Young award this year, but he's still 16-5 with a 3.19 ERA and the best pitcher, in my opinion, on the Tigers roster. He enjoyed one of his better outings in his last start as he limited the Royals to one run on six hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 4-2 Tigers win over Kansas City.
He was in a bit of a funk until that recent start, but the good news is he's facing a team that he's beaten five times in a row and is 8-2 lifetime against.
Swarzak has been in and out of the rotation this year as other starters get hurt and return. While his overall numbers look very respectable, it's really hard to ask a guy to keep throwing 6+ innings every once in a while after pitching in the pen in between.
The Tigers simply need this win a lot more and will get the job done tonight, 6-3. Take Detroit as your free play of the day.
3♦ DETROIT -1.5