Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Eagles-Colts to go Over the total.
Foles, McCoy, Sproles, Richardson, Wayne and Luck. The list goes on and on, as the offense sure looks like the way to go tonight, especially with the game being played in perfect indoor conditions.
Both the Eagles and the Colts managed to play Overs last week to open the season, and Philly has played 7 of their past 9 road games Over the posted price, while Indy (playoffs included) has seen the High cash in 8 of their last 12 games overall since last season.
Last week both Nick Foles and Andrew Luck had multiple turnovers, and as we all know turnovers usually lead to some quick points.
Have to side with the Over in this one.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA-INDIANAPOLIS OVER
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the Over in the N.L. West clash tonight in Phoenix, as the Giants visit the Diamondbacks at Chase Field.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Giants - Let's start with San Francisco's Ryan Vogelsong, who was a tad out of control his last time out, despit throwing 6.2 scoreless innings. It concerns me because he will be on the road, in a very dry heat, and he's already 1-1 with a 3.91 ERA in four 2014 starts against Arizona.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Diamondbacks - For the Snakes, we have Wade Miley on the bump, and even though the southpaw leads the Diamondbacks in innings pitched, he rolls into this one after turning in his shortest outing of the season - against these same Giants. He was pulled after two innings after struggling with command after walking four of the 15 batters he faced and allowing three runs.
In conclusion, why the OVER is my SMART PLAY in this game - The Giants have gone over in four straight, and eight of their last nine on the road, while the Diamondbacks have gone over in four their last five series lid-lifters and four straight overall.
Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure the two pitchers on your ticket, when making this play, are indeed Vogelsong and Miley. If they are not the pitchers of record when making your play, disregard this play.
4♦ Giants/Diamondbacks OVER
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Washington Nationals, over the Atlanta Braves, and in this game I want you listing both Stephen Strasburg and Ervin Santana.
Strasburg steps to the hill after lasting six innings and allowing three runs on seven hits last Wednesday. He will be out to start the series properly for the Nats, as they inch closer to the postseason and a National League East crown.
Washington used an aggressive approach last week, and proved to be effective against Santana's two-pitch agenda. The Nationals batted around within a span of 22 pitches during a four-run first inning. They'll pick up where they left off last week, and get to him again.
3♦ WASHINGTON
Brad Wilton
I know the Braves have had success against Stephen Strasburg, and I also know that Ervin Santana is looking for his 8th straight home win, but Atlanta is simply not playing winning baseball this final month of the season, and I will go against the Braves - losers of 9 of 12 in the month of September.
Strasburg just lost to Atlanta last Wednesday, and is now 0-3 this season versus the Braves with an over 7 ERA.
Meanwhile, Santana is 7-0 with a 2.91 ERA his last 8 starts at Turner Field. Problem is, Santana just lost to the Nats in D.C., and is only 1-2 with an over 6 ERA this season against Washington.
Nationals move a game closer to clinching the division title tonight.
Back Washington.
4♦ WASHINGTON
Bob Balfe
Chicago Cubs +105
The Reds are not going to make the postseason this year mainly because of their bullpen and road play. The Cubs are awful on the road which is why their record is so bad, but at home they are a decent team for the talent they lack. Neither starter has been pitching well at all so the bullpen edge does go to the Cubs. It’s tough for the Reds to play out the rest of this month knowing there is no playoff push for them this season. For the Cubs it’s just another Monday at Wrigley.
Harry Bondi
Philadelphia / Indianapolis Under 53
The untold story heading into tonight's game is that these two offensive coaching staffs are very familiar with each other. Indy offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was with Andrew Luck at Stanford and has helped his defense this week in preparing for Chip Kelly's offense, which he saw at Oregon every year. On the flip side, Kelly has seen Andrew Luck before plenty of times when they were both on the college level. Bottom line: This will be a slower paced game than everyone expects. Despite the reputation of playing in high-paced, high-scoring games, the Colts have gone under in 10 of their last 15 games as a favorite and in 15 of their last 22 games on this field. More than 80% of the action at the offshore sportsbooks we monitor is on the over tonight, so we'll gladly play the contrary side and go under.
MLB Predictions
Detroit Tigers -1.5 -110
It is an important time of the year for the Detroit Tigers as well. They are going toe-to-toe with the Royals in what is setting up to be a dramatic finish in the AL Central. All the Twins can do is watch, as they are way out of the picture in the division. They haven't been very motivated lately to show up and play, as they are losers of 8 out of their last 10 games. They snapped a four game skid with a win over the White Sox yesterday. Today a stiffer test awaits with Max Scherzer. Scherzer is looking for a massive paycheck in the offseason, probably not with the Tigers. With an ERA of 3.19 he is a good pitcher, but I imagine no where near what a team will pay him in the offseason. Nevertheless, I like Scherzer to shut down a rather lifeless Twins' offense. He is fresh off a big 13-4 win over the Twins in Minnesota, allowing them to score 3 runs. His ERA in his last three games hasn't been great, 3.72, but note he allowed 5 runs three starts ago and bounced back nicely in his last two, giving up 2 and 1 runs. The Tigers will go up against a pitcher that is making only his second start of the season. Swarzak is traditionally a member of the bullpen for the Twins, but will see action as the starter tonight. The longest he's gone all year is 4 innings, don't expect him to go longer than that. We should be able to get the Tigers vs. the Twins' bullpen for the majority of this game. This is the kind of game Detroit just has to go for the jugular and leave no doubt who the better team is. I expect the Tigers to pull away with the division, and pull away from the Twins in this game. Take the Tigers on the -1.5 RL.
Line Catchers
Indianapolis Colts - 3
The Eagles got off to a shaky start last Sunday against the Jaguars and had to rally in the second half to take down Jacksonville in Philly. In my view, the most significant factors to come from that game was that the Eagles lost two starting offensive linemen, including Pro Bowl guard Evan Mathis. With the offensive system that Chip Kelly has implemented in Philly, these lineman are a vital part of the fast paced tempo he has deployed.
Indianapolis also dug themselves a big hole in their opener, falling behind by 24 points before a rally came up short against Denver in Colorado. The Colts have been lights out on their home turf, winning 14 of 17 games at Lucas Oil Stadium with Andrew Luck under centre. In the Luck / Pagano era, the Colts are 10-0 ATS following a defeat.
The Colts are a team that likes to pound the ball, but RB Trent Richardson rushed for only 20 yards on six carries against the Broncos in their season opener. Indianapolis will need to establish the run early, so that it can slow down the Eagles offense and give Andrew Luck the option to mix up the play calls at the line of scrimmage.
The Eagles struggled against AFC opponents in 2013, going 1-3 in four inter conference match ups with the lone victory coming at Oakland. I still believe their are concerns over the Eagles secondary which allowed an NFL high 290 Passing Yards per game and they have done very little to address that in the off season.
Brandon Watson
Eagles +3
Eagles looked very bad on both sides of the football in the first half last week, but stormed back in the second half and put the game on ice. They're -2 in the turnover department, just like Indy, but were able to overcome that while the Colts fell in Denver. Indy went toe-to-toe with the Broncos and it looked like an impressive loss, but then the Broncos slept-walked through a game against KC yesterday that was closer than it should have been. Going to be a nice battle of quarterbacks here tonight between Nick Foles and Andrew Luck — to me, Foles should be able to move the football against Indy's defense and keep them in this game. Philly is going to have a chance to win, so I'm going to scoop up the points in this one.
Non Stop Sports Picks
Colts -3
The Colts return home after being beaten by the Broncos on opening weekend, but they don't have much to hold their heads down for. Actually BOTH the Eagles and Colts had some furious comebacks last week. But we have to tend to think the Colts comeback was more impressive against the Broncos. That being said, the Colts just need to come out and build on the momentum from last week. They can't keep digging themselves holes and if they don't...they're a really good football team. This game to me comes down to the better QB and home-field advantage tonight. It SHOULD be a close game, but the Colts should win. Lucas Oil Stadium is loud and the fans are really excited for the Colts this season. And we can't back the Eagles on the road just yet for a couple reasons. First of all, they were lucky to beat the lowly Jags. Secondly, and more importantly, I'm fully expecting a sophomore slump from Foles this season, and if/when he turns the ball over tonight, the Colts will make him pay. Colts take this one on national TV.
Jeff Scott Sports
Philadelphia / Indy Under 53: I feel that while both offenses can score plenty of points, they are both also ball control offenses that can take time off the clock in doing so. Let's also note that the Eagles have injury questions along the OL and that may keep their scoring down, while the weakness of the Colts defense is this run defense and remember that the Eagles were first in the league in rushing last year, so they may look to run a bit more in this one, which will take time off the clock as well. The Colts will will look to score plenty here, but they will also take time doing so and the Eagles defense is not all that bad. The Colts are 15-7 to the Under in their last 22 home games, while the Under is 30-13 in the Eagles last 43 games after they score 30+ points in a game. I expect no more than 48 points in this game.
Vegas Butcher
Washington Nationals -135
The Braves are coming off a 2-7 road trip and their chances for the playoffs are becoming slimmer and slimmer by the day. Today they’ll take on a Washington team that is 6-2 in their last 8 games and will have their stud Strasburg on the mound. Let’s ignore the actual stats and take a look at SIERA’s of both Strasburg and Santana against their respective opponent tonight:
Strasburg: 4.0 (04/05) / 2.0 (06/20) / 2.2 (08/08) / 1.6 (09/10)
Santana: 1.6 (06/22) / 4.6 (08/08) / 5.1 (09/09)
Based on SIERA, Strasburg didn’t pitch well against the Braves early in the year (04/05) but he’s been spectacular since, holding this 24th ranked lineup to an average SIERA of 1.9 in the last 3 starts. By comparison, Santana was stellar in his first meeting with Washington (06/22) but has been horrible in the other two later in the year, averaging a SIERA of 4.9. It’s not a surprise as the ‘unfamiliarity’ wore off as the season went on and the Nats have been excellent against both the fastball and slider, which are Santana’s two primary pitches. I’ll back the better team in this one with a strong advantage in starting pitching tonight.
OC Dooley
Tigers / Twins Under 7½
Most who took the time to read this analysis are familiar with strikeout-king Max Scherzer who this evening is going for win #17 which would tie him atop the American League in that category. I am actually a bit surprised that this total has dopped from the opening offshore figure of “eight runs” which is due in part to Scherzer’s recent wildness (seven walks last pair of assignments) which to me makes Detroit’s ace undervalued. But the big news regards a Minnesota pitching staff whose collective ERA has been near the bottom of baseball for most of the season. The tide is finally starting to turn as twice in the past three games Minnesota starting pitchers have recorded DOUBLE-DIGIT STRIKEOUT efforts including rookie Trevor May on Sunday. Even though Anthony Swarzak has pitched for most of the season out of the bullpen, there is a reason why tonight’s total has actually “declined”