Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday September, 17

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Denver Broncos at Atlanta FalconsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Atlanta FalconsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Peyton Manning looked like he entered a time machine that transported his old Colts' teammates and put them into the Broncos' orange uniforms last Sunday night in their 31-19 victory over the Steelers. Manning executed his no-huddle offense to near-perfection in the second half of this game in orchestrating three-straight drives of 80 yards against the Steel Curtain defense. And Elvis Dumervill and Von Miller looked like Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis teeing-off against opposing quarterbacks who had to resort to their passing game in order to rally to catch up to the lead Peyton had overseen. But that game was played in the thin Colorado air where visitors are more likely to tire in the second half. Now Manning will really be challenged in making his first road trip -- and playing in his first real football game -- in two years in going to the Georgia Dome to face the Falcons in front of what promises to be a raucous night-time crowd. Manning's teammates in Denver (1-0) have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football. Atlanta (1-0)'s offense looks rejuvenated under new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter who re-introducing the screen pass into their offensive toolbox while opening up the playbook to better exploit the weapons at wide receiver they enjoy with Julio Jones and Roddy White who combined for 12 receptions and 195 receiving yards in their 40-24 win on the road against Kansas City. But the bigger change in coaching for the Falcons may be bringing in Mike Nolan to be their defensive coordinator as he is one of the best defensive minds in the business. He will have his defense ready to counter Manning's no-huddle offense. But the key for Atlanta in this game will be to get running back Michael Turner going after he ran the ball only 11 times for 32 yards against the Chiefs. The more Turner runs the ball, the more time will burn off the clock which will keep Peyton off the field. The Falcons rushed for only 84 yards last Sunday -- but in the last 21 games where they failed to establish their running game by gaining no more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest, Atlanta then covered the point spread in a decisive 16 of their last 21 games. Look for Atlanta to cover the point spread in this one in front of their home crowd where Matt Ryan enjoys a spectacular straight-up record over the years.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Braves vs Miami MarlinsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Atlanta BravesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta finished up a modest 3-game home stand with Washington on Sunday night. The Braves pretty much have the #1 Wild Card spot in hand with a big lead over both the Dodgers and Cardinals. But what's most impressive about this Braves club is how well they play on the road. Atlanta is 41-31 this year in away games and their bullpen has actually been better on the road with a stellar 2.62 ERA. Tim Hudson has also had better starting away than at home for the Braves, posting a nice 6-2 record and 23.34 ERA. Atlanta has also done great in Miami over the last three seasons, posting a 5-1 record in their last six visits to Southern Florida. This is a cheap price for a good road team with a good road starter, take the Braves here on Monday.

Dave EsslerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Falcons -165FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Several things here. First off we know we've got Denver coming in on a short week. The Falcons can run the ball, which will keep the Denver defensive backfield much closer to the line than Pittsburgh was able to do. But, perhaps what pushes me over the edge here is the noise in the Georgia Dome. It's a loud stadium to begin with, but with Atlanta's big road win at Kansas City and it being their first home game AND on a Monday night, the place will be rocking. What I think that does is takes away some of Mannings' ability to improvise. Don't forget that with the Colts there were hand signals and other "body language" communications that had taken years of working with the same people to develop. He just cannot have the rapport in a month or so with the Denver "O" line and receivers that he did in Indianapolis. So, I will forgo the obligatory field goal here and simply bet that Atlanta wins this game.

Jesse SchuleFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado vs. San Francisco
Pick: Colorado
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The Rockies are in San Francisco tonight, after losing two of three to the Padres, they will try their luck against the Giants. San Francisco got roughed up by Arizona last night, and that should surprise anyone, considering that I released a free play on the Diamondbacks.
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Madison Bumgarner will get the nod for the Giants tonight, he has been terrible in recent starts. Bumgarner (14-10, 3.32 ERA) was torched by the Rockies for five runs on 11 hits over just four innings, not figuring in the decision of a 9-8 Giants win in Colorado his last time out. He had lost his last three starts prior to that, giving up 13 runs and walking 10 over 16 innings in those three contests.
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Suffice to say, Bumgarner has pitched like a real "bum" lately.
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The Rockies will send Joulys Chacin to the mound tonight, and he has shown a little improvement after a terrible start since joining the rotation. Chacin (2-5, 4.86 ERA) was opposite Bumgarner in last week's meeting between these two teams in Colorado. He allowed four runs on six hits, but only went four innings and didn't factor in the decision.
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Chacin is liklely looking forward to a chance to pitch in this West Coast pitcher friendly park, and he has an opportunity to make the most of it, opposite a struggling Bumgarner.
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I am going to suggest a look at the Rockies on the run line tonight.

David ChanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco
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The Rockies' Jhouyls Chacin (2-5, 4.86 ERA) is set to square off against the Giants' Madison Bumgarner (14-10, 3.32 ERA) on the mound this evening.
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Chacin went four frames, giving up four runs and was lucky to earn a no-decision for his effort vs. the Giants on Tuesday; he gave up six hits in all with one walk and one strikeout. With a firm 75-80 pitch count on its starters, Colorado is not giving Chacin much of a chance to earn a victory. Note that he's 1-3 with a 3.42 ERA on the road this year.
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Bumgarner faced Chacin last Tuesday, and it was his three-run home run in the fourth that tied the game. Ultimately he settled for a no-decision, giving up five runs off 11 hits with a walk over 4 1/3's frames of work; he struck out two. Bumgarner has hit a bit of a rough patch, but I believe has a big opportunity to "right the ship" on Monday night; note that he's 8-3 with a very respectable 2.39 ERA at home this year.
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This is a big game for San Francisco; it represents the first contest of a very important ten-game home stand.
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The Giants return to San Francisco after a successful 4-2 trip, taking two of three from the Rockies last week.
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You'll want to keep your eyes on the Giants' Buster Posey who is batting .469 with three home runs over his last eight games.
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The Rockies continue their spiral down the proverbial crapper, having lost nine of 11 after losing 12-11 in San Diego last night.
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And that doesn't bode well for Chacin, who is in fact 0-3 with a 6.10 ERA in his last four vs. the Giants (and note that the Rockies have lost nine of their last 11 away from friendly confines).
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Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason, and in this case, I feel Bumgarner and the surging home side should in fact be a much larger one; you may want to consider laying the price in this matchup!

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh vs. Chi. Cubs
Pick: Pittsburgh
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The magical season for the Pirates has gone completely downhill and Pittsburgh is now just trying to stay above .500. with the loss on Sunday, the Pirates have dropped eight of their last nine games and going back further, they are 10-25 over their last 35 games. Because of the mediocrity in the National League though, Pittsburgh is still in the Wild Card hunt as it trails the Cardinals by just three games so a late run could make the playoffs a possibility still. The Pirates have allowed 26 runs through the first three games of this series and they are hoping Kevin Correia can put a halt to this. He has been pitching very well as he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts and is riding a two-game quality start streak. His overall numbers have been average but he has fared well against the Cubs this year with a 2.92 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in two games, both resulting in quality performances. The Pirates are 5-0 in Correia's last five starts as a favorite. Chicago is 7-2 in its last nine games and it is back over .500 at home following the win Sunday. The pitching started the run well but has allowed 20 runs in the first three games of this series and they are 5-16 in their last 21 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Travis Wood gets the call for Chicago and while he has also been pitching well, the wins have not been coming. He is just 6-11 on the season and while run support has been on his side of late, it has been an issue all season. Only six of 11 home starts have been quality outings and the Cubs are 1-10 in hid last 11 starts as an underdog including 0-6 in his last six starts as a home underdog.

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets
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Disastrous weekend in Houston for the Phillies. Cliff Lee is pitching great ball right now, but RA Dickey is in the Cy Young chase and Mets will make a big effort here. I'll shade the Mets to collect the win tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

ATLANTA -3 -108 over Denver

Both teams played extremely well in respective openers but the Broncos lose the home field advantage they enjoyed last week. The Falcons rarely lose at home. That said, the Dirty Birds racked up 40 points last week on K.C. at always tough Arrowhead. Atlanta’s defense shut down the Chiefs attack in second half and they sacked Matt Cassel three times.

While we respect the Broncos, they may be up against it here. With its newly acquired quarterback, Denver was just featured in a huge Sunday night rematch of last year’s playoff contest with the Steelers. Right away, Peyton Manning and the Broncos will be featured again, on a Monday night in the Georgia Dome where the Falcons are 19-5 straight up the past three years. It’s not only a letdown spot for Denver but that impressive win has their stock far too high this week.

If Atlanta is truly ready to take the next step, they have to win games like this one. In its home opener, with the stars they employ at the skill positions, we’re comfy spotting a FG here.

Tony StoffoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Atlanta Braves
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I'm going with a release on the streaking Braves for this evening after their weekend sweep of the first place Nationals - as they face a Marlins squad just playing out the schedule. Add in the fact that Tim Hudson gets the start tonight for Atlanta only adds to this play on the Braves in this spot tonight. Hudson has owned the Marlins in his career with a 13-4 record and 2.81 ERA. So you know that Hudson will take the mound with a ton of confidence here. Atlanta the highly recommended play here this evening. Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Braves are 10-1 in Hudsons last 11 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Marlins are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. National League East. Marlins are 1-4 in LeBlancs last 5 starts as an underdog.

Bryan LeonardFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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NY Mets -105FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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R.A. Dickey heads to the hill looking for win #19 and, with just three starts remaining, everybody knows that Dickey would love to win 20 games and give himself a very strong shot at the Cy Young award. The Phillies suffered a deflating series loss against the Houston Astros, losing three out of four, falling below .500, and falling four games out of the wild card race with just 15 games to play. Dickey's knuckleball continues to dance late in the season, as he has allowed just seven runs over his last five starts, a span of 36.2 innings. Dickey has been terrific in front of the home crowd this season, with a 2.55 ERA and an 8-2 record in 15 appearances, 14 of them starts. It will be a tough turnaround for the Phillies and Cliff Lee, and a frustrated team is never a good match for the dancing knuckleball.

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Braves -130FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Braves have the edge on the mound with Tim Hudson, who is 14-6 (18-7 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.66 this season. He is 6-2 (8-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.34 on the road. Hudson has been Miami's worst nightmare. He is 13-4 (18-6 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.81 in 24 career starts against the Marlins. The Braves have won each of his last 4 starts against the Fish. They are also 6-0 in his last 6 road starts against them. Bet the Braves.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh Pirates +110
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The Pittsburgh Pirates are trying to avoid finishing with a losing record for a 20th straight season. At 73-72 on the year, they have an excellent chance of doing so with only two weeks remaining.FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I know the Pirates have struggled of late, but the fact of the matter is that they are only three games back of the final wild-card spot in the National League. This team will be motivated to make one final push.
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Kevin Correia has been respectable this season, going 10-9 with a 4.29 ERA. He has posted a 3.31 ERA in his last three starts, and I look for him to shut down this weak Cubs' line-up tonight. Chicago starter Travis Wood is 2-5 with a 4.86 ERA in 11 home starts this season.
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The Pirates are 8-1 in Correia's last 9 starts vs. National League Central opponents. The Cubs are 2-10 in Wood's last 12 starts overall, including 0-6 in his last 6 home starts. Bet the Pirates Monday.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Phillies vs. MetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 6½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Since 2004 road favorites with a total of 8 or less off a road favored loss and scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a loss have played under 80% of the time. The Pitching also suggests an under here with Lee for the Phillies and Dickey for the Mets. Lee has allowed 5 runs in 21 innings here and just 4 runs in his last 29 road innings in September starts with the last four going under. Dickey has stayed under in 3 of his last 4 home September starts and has allowed 10 runs in 36 innings at home vs the Phillies good for 2.50 era. The Mets have gone under in 9 of their last 11 home games, largely due to their franchise record 13 straight games scoring 3 or less here in their home park. Look for this one to stay under.

Joe GavazziFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia -105FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both Lee and Dickey are pitching outstanding baseball. Dickey is 18-5 for the season with a 2.68 ERA. In 5 starts at this site he has a 2.50 ERA vs. the Phillies. He is highly motivated for a potential Cy Young award. Lee is pitching even better. Lee is 3-0 with a 0.99 ERA his L3 starts. Lee has allowed 2 or less earned runs in his last 5 starts and gone 7 or more innings in each of his last 11 starts. All the late season momentum however, is with the Phillies. Since the ASB they are on runs of 36-23 and 16-7. It has allowed Philly to climb within 4 games of the 2nd Wild Card. They are far more motivated than a Mets team who is 1-8 recently and has tossed the towel long ago.