Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, September 19,2011

Charlie Scott

Rams vs. Giants
Play: Over 43.5

I feel the offense's are ahead of the defense's this time of the season because of the labor lockout and limited amounts of training camp & practice time. Coverage on Special Teams was terrible in week #1 and definitely helped in having 12 games go Over the Total last week. The Giants have numerous injuries on a defense that struggled against the pass last week vs Rex Grossman and some No name receivers. Giants Offensive Coordinator Kevin Gilbride (The Asst Coach Buddy Ryan tried to beat up in Houston Years ago) refuses to run the ball on consecutive plays. This is the first Monday Night game for the Rams since 2006. PLAY OVER !

Tom Freese

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

Play on Milwaukee at 8:05 ET. The Brewers just destroyed the Reds over the weekend, outscoring them 24-5 in a three-game sweep. That puts them at 90-63 for the season and a comfortable 6.5 games ahead of second place St. Louis in the National League Central. They shouldn't have much trouble with the sorry Cubs to start the week as they get to face Casey Coleman on Monday. Coleman has been lousy in 15 starts thus far, compiling a 6.81 ERA as the team has gone 3-12 overall. Here at Wrigley, he is 0-4 with a 9.25 ERA. He is 0-3 all-time vs. Milwaukee. Meanwhile, look for a strong effort from Milwaukee's Chris Narveson, who is 5-0 all time vs. Chicago, including 3-0 this season. The Brewers are 34-7 this season as a favorite of -150 or more. Take Milwaukee

Vegas Experts

Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5

Look for the Diamondbacks to clobber the Pirates tonight as we'll grab them on the run line, getting a lit bit more value. Pittsburgh was annihilated Sunday by the Dodgers, losing 15-1, dropping to 2-8 last 10 games and getting outscored 64-26 in the process. Life gets no easier against Arizona's Ian Kennedy, who looks to become the NL's first 20-game winner. The team is 12-1 his last 13 starts overall as he has allowed more than 3 ER in just one start - last time out when he did not receive a decision. Look for a dominant performance on the mound this evening from Kennedy.

Rob Vinciletti

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

Brewers fit a nice system that has cashed 9 of the last 12 times and plays on certain road favorites off a road favored win, vs an opponent off a home favored loss and scored 4 or less runs. The Brewers have eaten up losing teams in the second half going 35-8. They have C. Narveson going tonight and he is 5-0 with a 2.51 era vs the Cubs. Coleman goes for the Cubs and he is 1-5 with a 9.24 home era this season and has lost all 3 starts vs the Brewers. Look for Milwaukee to keep coasting.

Ben Burns

Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

The Angels may have more to play for. Don't tell that to Ricky Romero though. The Jays' star southpaw has beaten Boston in each of his last two starts. Romero is now 8-1 over his 11 starts with the Jays going 10-1 in those games.

Off his latest victory, Romero was quoted as saying: "I'm never satisfied, no matter what it is. No matter how many wins, how many strikeouts I have - to me, the individual stats don't mean anything to me. My job is to continue to get better and get this ballclub better."

For the season, Romero is now 8-3 with a stellar 3.10 ERA and 1.176 WHIP at home. They Jays were 10-5 (+4.2) in those games. Note that Romero is also 3-2 with a 3.24 ERA in five career starts against the Angels, including 2-0 the last two. He beat them 4-1 at Anaheim last August and beat them 11-2 here last month. In that 8/13 gem, Romero allowed just two hits and one run, through seven innings.

On the other hand, Williams has an ugly 5.56 ERA and 1.853 WHIP in his two road starts. While Romero has been facing the likes of Boston and the Yankees, Williams' last three starts have come against Seattle (twice) and Oakland. Last time out, he walked five batters and allowed seven hits, lasting only 4 1/3 innings. This is a tougher venue and given Romero's recent success, he's unlikely to get too much run support. Consider Toronto.

Jim Feist

Brewers vs Cubs
Pick: Over

The Milwuakee Brewers are on the verge of capturing their first division title in nearly three decades. They are playing great ball too, sweeping the Reds over the weekend and looking for their seventh straight win over the Cubs on Monday. The Brewers magic number is now Four with just nine games remaining. The Brewers just manhandled the Reds, winning all three games by a 24-5 margin behind great pitching and big hitting. But what is really intriguing is that the Brewers were terrible on the road early in the season and great at home. But lately the I feel sorry for the Cubs sacraficial lamb here on Monday in the person of starter Casey Coleman. Coleman is 2-8 this year with a 7.06 ERA and is coming off a game where he allowed six earned runs over 3 2/3 innings to the Reds. Brewers' slugger Ryan Braun is probably salivating at facing Coleman, a pitcher he is 7 for 10 against this season with a home run and a pair of doubles. Chris Narveson will start for the Brewers with his 10-7 record with a 4.40 ERA. Narveson pitched out of the pen last time out, mainly because his last start was an early exit of 5 2/3 innings where he allowed six runs to the Phillies. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Brewers take this game OVER by themselves, but the Cubs should contribute to that total at home.

EZWINNERS

Philadelphia Phillies -$240

The Phillies starting pitcher Roy Halliday is in a battle with teammate Cliff Lee and the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw for the National League Cy Young Award and I expect him to have another solid outing in this game. Halliday is coming off of his first shutout of the season and is really in a groove posting a 2-0 record with 20 strikeouts and and ERA of just 1.17 in his last three starts. Halliday allowed just one run in six innings of work in his last start against the Cardinals and owns a career 2-0 record with an ERA of just 1.23 in 22 innings of work against St. Louis. The Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Lohse has not pitched well recently, but run support is going to be the problem Lohse has in this game. St. Louis is just 3-13 in Lohse's last sixteen road starts against a team with a winning record. Play on Philadelphia.

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis +7/+280 over N.Y. GIANTS

The Rams opened the year with a home loss against the Eagles. It started so well with Steven Jackson running for a 47-yard touchdown but he came up gimpy and things went downhill from there. The Rams biggest problem in week one was dropped passes and that could’ve been just the first week jitters. Another potential problem for the Rams is that Sam Bradford and everyone else is learning a new system. Bradford has not really been consistent and fans in St. Louis are starting to get a little impatient. The Rams also have some injuries at key positions and when the books put everything together, they opened with the Giants being a 6½-point choice and now it’s been bet up to –7. The Giants were taken down by the Redskins and mostly looked dull and uninspired against a well-known divisional rival. The Giants have a weak secondary thanks to injuries and are paper thin in depth. The problems of the preseason have now manifested into a slow start to the regular season and the Giants have to play in Philly next week. The Giants are a big favorite here because the Rams have so many injuries and unknowns but it also gives some players an opportunity to step in and show their worth. It’s been close to five years since the Rams have been featured on Monday Night Football and that’s a sure sign that they’re back on the NFL map. The Rams will come in here focused as ever to prove it and frankly, they’re in no worse shape, health wise, than the G-Men and the Rams have much more depth. Giants are way overpriced here and we’re calling the upset. Play: St. Louis +7 +100 (Risking 1.5 units). Play St. Louis +280 (Risking 0.5 units).

Passing MLB

Matt Fargo

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

Chris Narveson is coming off a rough outing as he allowed six runs in 5.2 innings against the Phillies but those bad starts have been rare. He had allowed three runs or less in seven of his previous eight starts with the Brewers going 7-1 in those games. His last start was back on September 8th so he has had some rest which is always a big advantage this time of the season. He pitched two scoreless innings in relief on Wednesday to stay sharp. In five starts and seven relief appearances against the Cubs, he is 6-0 with a 3.41 ERA. Casey Coleman is having a very rough timer of it. He's winless in his last six starts and has a 6.82 ERA in that stretch following his last start where he allowed six runs in 3.2 innings against the Reds. That game came on the road but he has struggled much more at home as he has a 9.12 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in six starts and one relief appearance in Wrigley Field. Facing the Brewers is not the best of scenarios either as he is 0-2 with a 6.20 ERA in his career against Milwaukee. 3* Milwaukee Brewers

Bryan Power

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers

Let's go with the Brew Crew as a 'small play' on the Monday MLB card as they visit Wrigley Field to face a sorry Cubs team. Big pitching edge for the visitors in this one with them starting Chris Narveson, who is 5-0 vs. Chicago, including 3-0 in 2011, with a 2.51 ERA. Narveson had pitched well in eight straight starts before running into the Phillies last time out, but this is a drop in class against a Chicago team that starts the beleaguered Casey Coleman, who has a 9.24 ERA in 6 home starts. Coleman faces a Milwaukee team that has dominated righties this season, going 74-45 (+23.7 units) and they are also 72-31 as a favorite. The Cubs are 2-14 after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games. They are also 0-7 at Wrigley after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less in BB games. 5* on Milwaukee.

Jack Jones

San Diego Padres +115

The San Diego Padres have not quit on their season. They just took two out of three games from the NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks last series. Colorado appears to have given up after getting swept in four games by the San Francisco Giants at home in their last series. They were outscored 16-35 in the four-game set.

Cory Luebke is one of the most underrated starters in the league. Luebke sports a 3.27 ERA and 1.073 WHIP on the season for the Padres. He has given up just 99 hits and 37 walks while striking out 139 in 126 2/3 innings.

Kevin Millwood is washed up and has not fared well at Coors Field in limited action. Millwood is 1-1 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in three home starts in 2011.

The Rockies are 6-20 in their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Colorado is 2-8 in their last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Padres are 5-2 in Luebke's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with the Padres at an excellent price Monday.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -142

The Brewers are a major league-best 17-5 on the road since Aug. 5, and I expect them to keep rolling on the road this evening against a Chicago club they have defeated six straight times. Milwaukee has the edge on the mound with Narveson, who is 5-0 lifetime against the Cubs in 5 starts with an ERA of 2.51. Chicago's Coleman, meanwhile, is 0-2 (0-3 on the ML) with an ERA of 4.00 in 3 career starts against the Brewers. Coleman is 2-8 (3-12 on the ML) with an ERA of 6.81 in 15 starts this season, including 0-4 (1-5 on the ML) in 6 home starts with a 9.24 ERA. The Cubs are 0-8 in Coleman's last 8 starts. We'll bet the Brew Crew in this one.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Milwaukee -141 over CHICAGO: The Brewers may have the NL Central all but wrapped up, but this is not a team that is taking any chances as evidenced by their weekend series vs the Reds in which they outscored the Reds by a 24-5 count. This team is still rolling and they want to go into the post season both healthy and sharp. Today this hot offense (5.6 rpg in the last 5) will be facing Casey Coleman, who is 0-4 with a 6.31 ERA on the year and in 2 starts vs the Brewers this year he is 0-1 with a 5.25 ERA. Casey is 0-4 at home with a 9.12 ERA and the Cubs have lost his last 8 starts. Chris Naverson has not had the same Problems as he comes in with a 10-7 mark overall and a 4.40 ERA. He is just 4-4 with a 4.67 ERA on the road, but he has had a nice career vs the Cubs going 5-0 with a 2.51 ERA in his 5 starts vs them, including 2-0 with a 4.09 ERA at Wrigley. The Brewers are 41-12 in their last 53 games as a favorite and they are 32-6 as a favorite of 140+ over a divisional favorite that is behind them in the standings, since July of 2010. Milwaukee wants to stay sharp so don't look for them to take too many days off down the stretch as they continue to win.

3 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGLE PLAY

LA Angels/ Toronto Over 8.5: The Over is 14-5-1 in Toronto's last 20 games overall and 8-1 in their last 9 as a favorite, while the Over is 14-5 in the Angels last 19 road games. The Angels offense comes in in good form as they have averaged 4.5 rpg in their last 10 games and they have averaged a solid 4.42 rpg on the road this year, including a solid 5.39 rpg in their last 13 away from home. The Jays offense has been solid all year as they rank 5th in scoring at 4.68 rpg, including a very nice 4.83 rpg at home. Jerome Williams has had just 4 starts on the year and he has a 3.90 ERA in those starts and a 7.62 ERA in his 2 road starts. Rickey Romero has p[itched well at home with a 3.01 ERA and his home starts have averaged 8.73 rpg. Overall the Jays staff has struggled of late as they come in with a 5.36 ERA in their last 10 games, including a 5.79 ERA from their pen in that stretch. We have two solid offenses in a hitters park tonight and I expect plenty of runs. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY-- The Over is 19-3 since August of 2009 when playing a game 2 pm or later after scoring 3 runs or less and winning.

2 UNIT PLAY

NY Yanks/ Minnesota Under 10: There are some great trends that go along with this play. The under is 14-1-3 in Burnett's last 18 at home vs a team with a losing record and and 13-2-2 in his last 17 as a favorite of 201 or higher, while the Under is 22-9-1 when the twins are dogs of 201 or more. The Yanks Offense does come in hitting just .207 in their last 10 games and granted all 10 were on the road, but normally a team won't get their swing back right away after struggling for a bit, plus after a long road trip teams are a bit sluggish in that first game back, especially without a day off and playing an afternoon game. The Twins offense has struggled for much of the year and they come in hitting just .210 and scoring just 3 rpg in their last 10 and in their last 7 games played here they have averaged just 3.3 rpg. Scott Diamond has a 3.18ERA in his last 3 starts, while Burnett is starting to pitch much better with a 4.15 ERA in his last 3 starts. The under is 34-13-4 in the last 51 meetings in NY and with both offenses being a bit sluggish I see that trend continuing here.

Rocketman

Milwaukee @ Chicago
Play On: Milwaukee

Milwaukee is 55-23 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Milwaukee is 35-8 this year when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Milwaukee has won 5 of their last 6 games overall. Milwaukee bullpen has a 3.40 ERA overall this year. Casey Coleman is 2-8 with a 7.06 ERA overall this year, 2-8 with a 6.81 ERA in all starts this season, 0-4 with a 9.24 ERA at home this year and 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA his last 3 starts. Narveson is 5-0 with a 2.51 ERA overall vs Chicago Cubs in his starts while Coleman is 0-2 with a 4.00 ERA overall vs Milwaukee in his starts again them. We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee tonight!