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SAN FRANCISCO +6 over New OrleansFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We all saw the results yesterday of overreactions to teams that had good and bad starts to open the year. We had overreactions to the Pats, Seahawks, Texans, Ravens, Giants and Tennessee to name a few and there was a definite under-reaction to the Jets after they couldn’t move five yards against the Ravens. Having said that, no team was more disappointing or lifeless than these 49ers in week one when they went into Seattle and got belted 31-6. That score looks even worse after Seattle got lashed in Denver yesterday. This is another under-reaction to a week one score and it works in the 49ers favor. Perhaps they were looking ahead to this home opener, who knows? What we do know is that San Fran was a big favorite to win the NFC West and that they’re loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Alex Smith was putrid in week one but don’t put too much emphasis on that. Mike Singletary is no fool and if he didn’t believe in Smith he would not play him. Smith isn’t Joe Montana but he’s very capable of doing some damage and so, too, is the 49ers defense. The Saints are the Saints and they’re a legit threat to repeat but this isn’t about them, as they need no introductions. What we have here is a favorable spot for the home side. We have a home-pooch on Monday Night Football, which is almost always a ticket that gets cashed and we have the aforementioned under-reaction to the 49ers. So, you can break down the X’s and O’s all you want but that doesn’t work. You’re going to see a different San Fran squad tonight and you’re going to see one that’ll be more prepared and a million times more fired up than they were in its opener. This one has upset written all over it. Play: San Francisco +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
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Houston +1.22 over WASHINGTONFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We’re not saying that Livan Hernandez can’t win this game but putting too much stock into this guy is a risk that should be avoided. On August 27th, the Nats announced that Stephen Strasburg had a significant tear in his right ulnar collateral ligament and was soon to join The Tommy John Club. On August 29th, the Nationals made matters worse when they signed Hernandez to a one-year, $1M contract with additional incentives as GM Mike Rizzo crowed, "We think he has earned it." The surface stats say this isn't a bad idea for the Nationals, but the skill set say otherwise. Hernandez's 3.82 ERA looks like a huge improvement over the last four years until you see that his xERA (4.93), which says "this is the same old ticking time bomb." That BPV (27) says this is a boring "skill set" with a capital "B". To what can we ascribe Livan Hernandez's resurgence in 2010? Whatever it is, it certainly isn't skill. So whatever you do, don't make the same mistake the Washington Nationals just made and invest in this guys arm. If you hadn't already taken notice of Bud Norris you probably did last month when he fanned 14 Pirates over 7 innings - his second double-digit strikeout game of the year. Norris' xERA is more than a run below his actual ERA thanks to a 67% strand rate and the best news is that the Nats have never seen this guy while everyone has seen Hernandez about 1000 times. Play: Houston +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
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Kansas City +1.07 over DETROITFOR SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After his everything-went-right 2009 Cy Young campaign, it was only realistic to expect some regression in Zack Greinke's numbers for 2010. But a near-4.00 ERA and single-digit wins in the middle of September is a little hard to swallow. Still, his great control remains and he's seen an impressive increase in groundball %. If he can maintain the GB gains, it will be another considerable weapon in his arsenal. His three-season **BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page) average is an excellent 110, indicating that yes, Greinke is still a stud starter from a straight-skills perspective and it’s also worth noting the Royals are averaging just under six runs per game over the last eight. Current Royals hitters are batting a combined .303 of Rick Porcello (42-133). They saw him two weeks ago and got to him for four runs in 7 IP. Porcello missed his last start after he aggravated a tendon in his finger and skipping starts is not usually beneficial. Porcello has been pitching better of late for sure. His 5.10 ERA on the year is somewhat misleading given his 50% groundball rate on the year but in no way is he in the same class as Greinke and thus, we’ll look to take advantage. Play: Kansas City +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
DUNKEL INDEX
Atlanta at Philadelphia
The Phillies look to take advantage of an Atlanta team that is 2-7 in its last 9 road games against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160)
Game 951-952: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.151; Philadelphia (Hamels) 17.110
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-160); Under
Game 953-954: Houston at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 15.003; Washington (Hernandez) 14.625
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); Over
Game 955-956: Cincinnati at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.611; Milwaukee (Capuano) 14.967
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+100); Under
Game 957-958: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.214; NY Yankees (Nova) 15.644
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-125); Over
Game 959-960: Kansas City at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 14.839; Detroit (Porcello) 16.112
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-120); Over
Game 961-962: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 16.271; Boston (Matsuzaka) 15.679
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+135); Under
Game 963-964: Cleveland at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Gomez) 15.100; Minnesota (Duensing) 16.374
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-210); Over
Game 965-966: Chicago White Sox at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 14.787; Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.081
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+130); Under
Game 967-968: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 16.692; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.504
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+130); Over
Game 969-970: St. Louis at Florida (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.248; Florida (Volstad) 13.597
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-140); Under
NFL
Game 237-238: New Orleans at San Francisco (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 141.546; San Francisco 133.730
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 7; 41
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-5 1/2); Under
Ben BurnsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
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Texas has enjoyed the better season. However, the Angels are currently playing better baseball at home than the Rangers are on the road. The Angels also figure to have an advantage on the mound.
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Weaver is coming off a beauty. He retired 21 of 22 batters en route to earning a 7-0 victory at Cleveland. That was on the road. Now, Weaver returns home where he's got a a major league-best 1.56 ERA. The Angels are 9-5 in his 14 home starts. It should also be noted that Weaver is 5-0 with a 2.40 ERA in nine career home starts against the Rangers.
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Holland was sharp in his last road start. However, that's been the exception rather than the norm. For his career, he's 2-9 with a terrible 5.72 ERA on the road. This season, he's 1-3 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.681 WHIP, in four road starts. His last start at LA resulted in a 5-0 loss.
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Overall, the Rangers are an ugly 7-15 their last 22 road games. Meanwhile, the Angels have won four straight at home. Given Weaver's numbers here, the price is fair. Consider LA.
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St. Louis Cardinals @ Florida Marlins
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
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With this scheduled off-day for both of these teams, they will play a make-up of a game originally scheduled for August 8 in Florida. The postponement would seem to be a break for the Cardinals, as they most likely would have started Chris Carpenter in that game (he went in the next game against the Reds on August 9) and they will still get to start him this afternoon. While it's true that the Cards have to fly across the country Sunday night to make it to Florida, the 3:10 start time should give them plenty of time to recover and the flight up to Pittsburgh for the next series that starts Tuesday night is only about 2 1/2 hours. They better take advantage of this relatively weak schedule (Pirates-Cubs-Pirates in the nine games which follow this one) because they are now seven games back in the Central. Carpenter not only likes pitching in south Florda (1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in four starts there), but he also has a better win percentage during the day (63.9%) than he does when he starts under the lights (61%). It's a great match-up for him as righthander Chris Volstad is just 9-9 with a 5.11 ERA and is returning from a suspension which means he could be a little rusty today. He also sports a 1-1 record and 7.59 ERA in just under 11 innings against the Cards. St. Louis is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Florida. Take the Cardinals.
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Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Braves visit the Phillies in the opening of a three-game series in Philadelphia. The Phillies have won seven straight and 19 of 23 since August 27, the best record in MLB over that span. While the Braves have fallen three games back of Philadelphia in the NL East, the team can't (and WON'T) lose sight of the fact the it is still 2 1/2 games up on the Padres (3 1/2 on the Rockies) in the wild card chase. Atlanta has taken seven of 12 meetings from the Phillies in 2010, including five of the last six. However, while the Braves are a MLB-best 52-23 at home (plus-$1,565), they are just 34-41 (minus-$1,061) on the road. Tonight's starting pitcher for Atlanta, Jair Jurrjens, mirrors that home/away dichotomy. His home ERA is 3.51 in 10 starts (team is 8-20) but his road ERA is 5.81 in 10 starts (team is 4-6). Tonight, he'll be facing the red-hot Cole Hamels (Halladay and Oswalt follow the next two games!), who has won four straight starts, allowing just one ER over 28.2 innings (0.31 ERA) with a KW ratio of 31-6. I'm not bucking either Hamels or the Phillies in this one.
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3* on Atlanta Braves +155
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Reasons the Braves win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (PHILADELPHIA) - starting a pitcher who gave up = 7.00 over his last 5 starts. Betting $100/game over the last 299 games in this situation, you would have profited $10,270. This season alone you would be up $1,240 in 23 games that have fallen under this system. Bet the Braves on the road.
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1 Unit on Oakland A's -142
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The White Sox have now lost 6 in a row with last night's extra innings loss, and it will be extremely difficult for them to get up for this West Coast contest a day later. While Gonzalez hasn't had much luck against the Sox in his career, I like his chances at home tonight, where he is 8-3 (10-4 on the ML) this season with an ERA of 2.70. He gives the A's the edge in this matchup as Chicago's Floyd is just 4-8 (5-9 on the ML) with an ERA of 4.19 on the road this season. You also have to like the fact that Oakland is 12-1 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season when Gonzalez gets the start. Take the A's.
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Rangers at AngelsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This is incredible. Angels starter Jered Weaver is 12-0 Under in home starts this season and has also gone Under in each of his 13 previous starts overall. His team has gone Under in 11 of 14 September games overall. Rangers starter Derek Holland has posted a 2.94 ERA his last three outings and faces a Halos squad that has not done well vs. lefties this year (3.8 runs per game, .237 team BA). Take Under.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
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Ivan Nova is looking to make a big splash down the stretch and possibly make the post season roster. The Yankees are 4-0 in his last four starts including an 8-7 win last week in Tampa Bay over the Rays. Look for another quality outing from Nova as he out duels Matt Garza in a rematch of last week. Play NY Yankees
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Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Cleveland Indians
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5* graded play on the Cleveland Indians as they take on the Minnesota Twins set to start at 8:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Cleveland will win this game. Cleveland starter Gomez is what baseball people call one that must ‘pitch to contact’. He does not have the ‘stuff’ to dominate a team and record a a large number of strikeouts. Yet, in nine starts he has posed a decent 4.40 ERA and his team record is 5-4 in those starts. Twins starter Duensing has made a nice transition from the bullpen to starter. Overall, he sports a 9-2 record with a 2.07 ERA and a 1.106 WHIP in 50 games. 10 of those 50 games have been starts and he has posed a 2.25 ERA and a 1.103 WHIP. Yes, these are great numbers, but over his last three starts he has gotten away with many hits. He has allowed a 24 hits in his last three starts spanning 20 2/3 innings of work. Scouting is catching up to him and so is fatigue. It is far easier to pitch out of the bullpen then to adjust to a starter’s role. Cleveland bullpen has been stellar posting a 1.64 ERA and a 0.788 WHIP over the past seven games. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 44-33 making 33 units since 1997. Play against home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher and is an average hitting team batting = .265 to .279 and with a quality starter posting an ERA is 3.20 or better on the season and now facing a starting pitcher posting an ERA=4.20 to 4.70. The great item about this system is that it has averaged a +150 DOG play. Take Cleveland.
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Florida Marlins St Louis Cardinals
Pick : St. Louis Cardinals
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It's now or never for the Cardinals. They know that a big finish would at least give them a shot to overtake the Reds in the NL Central. It starts with Game 1 of this series against the Florida Marlins Monday. This is a Marlins team that has packed it in, going 0-6 in their last 6 games. The cardinals will send Chris Carpenter to the bump tonight. The righty is 15-7 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.171 WHIP this season, having another tremendous year for the Cardinals. St. Louis has won 21 of his 32 starts this season.
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Betting against Chris Volstad has been a very profitable move this season. In 27 starts, the Marlins have won 11-16 in those games where Volstad has posted a 5.11 ERA and 1.480 WHIP. Volstad sports a 9.20 ERA and 2.113 WHIP in his last 3 starts as well. Carpenter is 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA in 9 career starts vs. Florida, while Volstad is 1-1 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.781 WHIP in 2 career starts vs. St. Louis. He gave up 6 earned runs in 5.2 innings in his last home start against the Red Birds. Bet St. Louis Monday.
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1 Unit on LA Angels -146
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I like LA's chances at home with ace Jered Weaver on the mound. Weaver's 1.56 home ERA is the best in baseball, and he is carrying an even lower 1.23 ERA over his last 10 starts. In addition, Weaver is a perfect 5-0 w/ an ERA of 2.40 in nine career home starts against division rival Texas. In terms of the money line, the Angels are 6-0 in Weaver's last 6 home starts vs. the Rangers. Texas is just 3-7 in its last 10 road games in this series, and it brings southpaw Derek Holland to the mound, who is 2-9 w/ an ERA of 5.72 in 13 career starts away from home. Take the Halos.
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Minnesota Twins -203
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The Indian's rookie starting pitcher Jeanmar Gomez pitched very well when he was first called up by the Tribe, but he is now 0-4 in his last five starts for Cleveland. Gomez appears to have hit the rookie wall and in his last start Wednesday Gomez gave up six earned runs and seven hits over just three innings of work against the Angels. Minnesota's rookie pitcher Brian Duensing has been pitching very well for the Twins this season posting a 9-2 record with an ERA of 2.07 in eleven games and over his last three starts Duensing is 2-0 with an ERA of only 1.31. The Indians have been one of the worst teams in the majors this season against left handed pitching and I expect their struggles against south paws to continue tonight. The Indians are only 7-16 in their last twenty three meetings between these two teams in Minnesota and only 15-36 in their last fifty one road games against a team with a winning record. Play on Minnesota.
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Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Atlanta Braves are in a predicament as the baseball season heads into its final two weeks. They are trying to catch Philadelphia in the NL East, while keeping a wary eye on those chasing them for the wild card.
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The Braves arrive in Philly off a sweep of the Mets in New York, but did not help themselves one iota, since the Phillies are riding a seven game win streak. Philadelphia is playing well in all facets of the game, including being spotless in the field and sends Cole Hamels to the mound. Hamels 11-10 (3.01 ERA) record might not look like much, but he looking to win a career-best fifth consecutive start, sporting a 1.79 ERA since July 11, the best in the National League.
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For Monday look to Play On favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, after three straight games where they committed no errors, starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs in his last two outings. In the past five years this MLB system is 84-27.
JR O'DonnellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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BAL (+130) vs BOS
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We are on the 59-90 Baltimore O's + 130 tonight as B. Matusz gets our down right nasty call as a dangerous dog road winner Monday, This baby has a "Ton" of value boys as the O'ster will back the O's on an upswing vs the Redsox who are banged up. O's hurler Matutsz is a super 2-0 and a stellar 2.55 ERA vs these Red Sox. The Red Sox are also a so so 8-7 vs these O's this season. The JR Power ratings have this baby @ Red Sox -110 and that gives JR some huge value! Short, sweet and powerful go the O's ..