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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, September 20,2010

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Dan BebeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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BAL (+137) vs BOS
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This is, by no means, a big MLB free play, but I definitely believe there's some value with the Orioles.
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Baltimore got beat up a little by the Yankees over the weekend, but closed out the homestand with a win, yesterday. I like that they're taking that positive momentum on the road. Also, it shouldn't be a huge surprise that New York played Baltimore tough, since the Orioles beat the Yankees a couple times in the Bronx just a few weeks back.
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The beauty of this game is that the Orioles have a monster edge in starting pitching, and a large edge in motivation.
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We've seen how well Baltimore is playing, and they're having fun learning how to compete with the best in the League as the season winds down. The Red Sox are playing out the stretch with a bunch of kids, and a few veterans just sort of going through the motions. Sure, they're going to compete on a nightly basis, but the fire isn't there.
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Daisuke Matsuzaka is on a string of ugly starts where he's allowed more than 4 earned runs. His slump is our gain.
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Combine that with Matusz's ability to pitch his best against AL East rivals, and we've got ourselves a great starting point.
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Fact is, this game is much closer to a coin-flip than to a game where Boston should be favored by a -150 price, and we'll take that value every time with the team that actually WANTS to win.

 
Posted : September 20, 2010 12:33 pm
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Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Rays at NY Yankees
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A big showdown game in the Bronx between two of the strongest offenses in the league. And Yankee stadium is a great hitter's park. Matt Garza may have ace stuff, but not lately, with a 7.98 ERA his last three starts. The Yankees have smoked him this season, with a 7.71 ERA against them. NY goes with Ivan Nova who is very hittable and sports a 6.46 ERA his last three starts. Look for an offensive show, Play the Rays/Yankees Over the total.

 
Posted : September 20, 2010 12:38 pm
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O.C. DooleyFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Athletics -145FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The “intangible” has to do with the fact that Chicago has had to fly out to the west coast WITHOUT the benefit of any rest. I will admit that Oakland was also on the road yesterday operating out of the central time zone, but they still have had more time to prepare as the White Sox made a PRIMETIME appearance on ESPN Sunday. Not only did Chicago host the only “night” game on the schedule, the contest went EXTRA INNINGS (11) before finally coming to a resolution. It was almost exactly one week ago when Chicago’s season essentially came to an end when the first-place team in the American League Central Division (Minnesota) came into the Windy City and swept a critical three-game series. The reeling White Sox come into this late night affair having lost 6 consecutive games where the pitching staff has been ripped (8.04 ERA) while the offense has been putrid (.179 batting average) with runners in scoring position. The recent acquisition of Manny Ramirez has not helped as the slugger in his initial 16 games in a White Sox uniform (13-for-48) has been a non factor. To make a long story short Oakland has yet to give up on the season and they will be hosting first-place Texas for 4 games later this week as they still have an outside shot of stealing the American League West crown. More realistic for the Athletics would be a second-place finish and they certainly have a dynamic young pitching staff. Oakland’s Gio Gonzalez is coming off an ugly outing where he surrendered 7 earned runs, but it should be considered that he had given up just 8 earned runs in his prior 7 mound assignments combined. Gonzalez has been a bit shaky on the road (4.22 ERA) but in front of the HOME fans (2.70 ERA) it has been a different story. Long term the Athletics have been one of baseball’s best HOME teams (20-10) as they take advantage of the game’s most vast foul ball territory. I have found overwhelming supporting evidence from the database that sees Gio Gonzalez almost unbeatable this season (12-1) when cast as a favorite. On the other hand Chicago’s Gavin Floyd in his career has gone a disastrous 3-13/ROAD against poor hitting American League opponents who have a collective on-base percentage of “.320 or worse”

 
Posted : September 20, 2010 5:24 pm
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Hollywood SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
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Gio Gonzalez looks to bounce-back from a poor performance where he allowed seven runs in just two innings of work in Kansas City and we expect him to enjoy a much better performance at home. For the season, Gonzalez is 14-9 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. At home, Gonzalez has been even better with a 2.70 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .194 opponent's batting average. The A's have won eleven of their last twelve home games with Gonzalez on the mound. And the White Sox have lost six of their last seven games against left-handed starters. Chicago counters with Gavin Floyd who is 10-13 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. But Floyd seems to be waning as the season closes to an end as he has a 8.73 ERA and 2.27 WHIP over his last two starts. Floyd also has not been as effective on the road this year with his 4.19 ERA. And with Floyd on the mound and listed as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range, the White Sox have lost eight of their last ten games.

 
Posted : September 20, 2010 5:25 pm
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Black WidowFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1* on Minnesota Twins -1.5 +108
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With Brian Duensing on the mound, the Twins should dominate the Indians Monday by at least 2 runs. Minnesota is 38-14 in their last 52 games overall and they've been the best team in baseball in the second half. Duensing is 3-0 with a 0.57 ERA in 4 home starts in 2010. The lefty has allowed just 2 earned runs in 31.2 innings at home this year. Jeanmar Gomez is 0-4 in his last 4 starts for Cleveland, and he gave up a season-worst 7 earned runs in 3 innings the last time he took the mound. The Twins are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. The Indians are 16-42 in their last 58 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take the Twins on the Run Line.

 
Posted : September 20, 2010 5:25 pm
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Dave PriceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on Oakland Athletics -142
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Very tough spot for the White Sox, who have fallen out of the race with 6 straight losses. It gets no easier tonight in Oakland, where the Sox are 15-37 in their last 52 meetings. Plus, they up against a starting pitcher (Gonzalez), who is 5-0 on the money line in his last 5 home starts and 11-1 on the money line in his last 12 starts as a home favorite. Take Oakland.

 
Posted : September 20, 2010 5:26 pm
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Vic DukeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers +6
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This line opened at 49ers +4' but soon jumped to +5'. We now see +6 in a lot of online sportsbooks. In this instance, like a good offense, we'll take what the defense, or sportsbooks, give us. SF has exhibited strength off disastrous losses under Singleltary and sports a 5-0 ATS mark off a SU loss vs winning teams under him. Sure, the 49ers' offense looked embarrassingly bad last week unable to get plays called on time, interceptions, no run game; on the other hand, the Super Bowl incumbents (Saints) still look like world beaters coming off a win and cover vs Minnesota. However, in the NFL, a lot of times you're not as good as you think you are and you're not as bad as they say you are. We'll look for that to hold true tonight. The 49ers have a very good defense and we're projecting the 49ers' offense will play more "smash mouth" Singletary style football and get the run game going behind Gore instead of heaving the ball up 45 times (last week). Alex Smith has shown ability to lead the offense effectively in the right situation and getting the run game going is surely the right situation for him. The New Orleans' defense can be ran on. SF is a resilient and resourceful team as their 13-4-1 ATS mark off a SU loss of more than 14 points indicates. Throw in that they're 6-0 ATS off a SU favorite loss while the Saints are just 1-11 ATS in September vs losing teams, and we got a dangerous dog tonight.

 
Posted : September 20, 2010 5:27 pm
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