DAVE COKIN
ORIOLES VS. NATIONALS
PLAY: NATIONALS -142
Turn back the clock a few months, and the upcoming series between the Orioles and Nationals looked as though it would be top of the marquee stuff. Baltimore came into the campaign primed for a second straight post-season appearance. Washington was the pre-season favorite to win it all and their presence in the playoffs seemed to be a foregone conclusion.
The beauty of sports is that just because it’s supposed to happen doesn’t mean it will. The bad news from a fan standpoint is that what was supposed to be a huge late season Beltway Brawl now means next to nothing aside from regional pride. I will resist the temptation to go on a rant as to why these two franchises are where they are this season. At this point, that would just be piling on and I don’t want to be accused of hitting below the beltway.
So I’ll just concentrate on tonight’s game. Ubaldo Jimenez takes on Gio Gonzalez, and while each of these pitchers falls squarely into the erratic category, there isn’t much question that the Nats lefty is flashing the better current form.
Washington is playing the better ball right now. In fact, I guess they’re still alive in the NL East. A six-game deficit with 13 games remaining is technically not insurmountable. But with the Mets about to spend an entire week facing the Braves and Reds, the playoff hopes for the Nats are on life support, and that would only be from the perspective of an eternal optimist.
At least that current form for the Nationals could be helpful tonight. Soon to be MVP Bryce Harper continues to amaze and he’s actually getting some offensive support from his pals. The Orioles have been a really bad road team all season. While the overall ledger will fall well below expectations, the Nationals have actually been a solid host, and a win tonight would push them to .600 for the season in home games.
Factoring in the team data along with the Jimenez/Gonxalez comparison, and I believe a case can be made that this number is actually a little on the cheap side. I made this Washington -165, so laying nearly a quarter less that is pretty palatable. I’ll side with the Nationals tonight.
Bill Biles
NY Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Indianapolis Colts -7
Andrew Luck simply does not lose back to back games. He has a great record coming off of a loss and the Jets will be without number 2 corner Cromartie. The Colts will play better on both sides of the ball in this one and they will have a huge boost from the home crowd in the home opener on MNF. Colts get it done and go to 1-1
Rob Vinciletti
Orioles vs. Nationals
Play: Under 8
This game has a solid 82% totals system that plays to the under for road dogs like the orioles off a road loss taking on a home teams off a 5+ run home win and scored 10 or more runs. Washington has played under 5 straight times at home after scoring 10+ runs. they have Gio Gonzalez going and he has a 3.04 home Era and a 1.47 Era in his last 3 starts. Jimenez for Baltimore has pitched under in all 6 career starts vs the Nationals with a 2.61 Era. Look for a low scoring game. Take this one to go Under.
Scott Spreitzer
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox +105
Eduardo Rodriguez has been on his game of late, posting a 1.73 ERA & 1.28 WHIP in his last five starts. The southpaw has been much more effective at night than in daytime starts as evidenced by his 1.68 ERA & 1.09 WHIP in 11 evening outings. And his team has played well at home for nearly two months, playing .653 baseball at Fenway since July 30. Boston has always given Chris Archer trouble. The Rays' right-hander has been tagged for 31 earned runs, 54 hits, and 30 walks in his last 10 starts against the Sox, spanning 51 innings. That's a 5.47 ERA & 1.65 WHIP. Archer has been struggling with control of late, walking 12 batters in 23 1/3 innings of work in his last four starts. In fact, he has a 4.68 ERA & 1.39 WHIP in his last three trips to the mound. I doubt he finds the "sweet elixir" against the Sox in this one.
Mike Lundin
Angels vs. Astros
Play: Over 8
The Houston Astros will host division rivals the Los Angeles Angels for the opener of a three-game set at Minute Maid Park Monday. I think we'll see a high-scoring game here between two teams playing hard looking to make it to the post-season. Dallas Keuchel will take the ball for the Astros coming off his worst start of the year when he conceded nine runs on 11 hits with three homers over just 4 2/3 innings of a 14-3 loss at Texas. He gave up three runs through six innings against the Halos his last start prior and has struggled with David Freese who is 9-for-19 with a double and a homer in previous matchups. Jered Weaver will take the ball for the Halos and he's posted a 7.40 ERA in his last seven starts away from home. He gave up three runs on six hits before being ejected when he hit Kyle Seager with a pitch 4 2/3 innings in of a 3-1 loss at Seattle his last time out.
Notes
The over is 7-3-2 in Los Angeles last 12 road games.
The over is 4-1 in Keuchel's last five starts overall.
Keuchel has posted a 4.19 ERA in 11 career appearances, 10 starts, against Los Angeles.
Art Aronson
New York vs. Toronto
Play: Under 8½
The visitors hand the ball to Adam Warren (6-6, 3.33 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits while striking out four in a no-decision vs. the Rays on Tuesday; note that Warren has been solid in this spot, posting a respectable 3.43 ERA in all "night" games this year. The home side counters with ace David Price (16-5, 2.42 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits over seven innings in a victory over the Braves on Wednesday. Price is now 7-1 in nine starts for the Jays and has given up just five runs over 19 1/3's innings in three starts vs. New York this season. With these two competent hurlers facing off in the opener of this important series, the UNDER does indeed become a legitimate investment opportunity in our professional opinion.
Heath Mac
New York vs. Indianapolis
Play: Over 46½
This total seems a few points short. The Colt's offence looked terrible last week, but a lot of credit must go to the Bills secondary. Although solid, the Jets dont have the same talent so we expect Luck and the Colts to put up some points. On the other side, Fitzpatrick is no star, but has plenty of options now with Marshall and Decker both scoring TDs in their big win over the Browns. With the Colts poor on the defensive side, the Jets should be able to put up some points here too. Plus Fitzpatrick can be a turnover machine at times.
Frank Jordan
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: New York Yankees +210
The Yankees are coming off a big win against the Mets in the series finale with a big second half of the game after being shut down by Harvey through five. This was a big win as they picked up a game on Toronto and are down just two in the loss column with a three game set to start in Toronto on Monday. The Yankees need to just take two of three to cut the lead to one with 11 to play to make for a great final week and a half of baseball. Things will be tough in the first game as they are throwing Adam Warren up against Toronto's ace in David Price. Warren has three appearances against Toronto this year allowing two hits, one walk, struck out five in 2 1/3 innings and hasn't allowed a run. Price is 2-1 with a 5.40 in four starts against the Yankees this season and his team is 2-2 in those four starts so this is a tie breaker. Price has stepped it up in September with a 3-0 record in three starts with a sub two ERA. Look for Warren to minimize the Toronto offense and the Yankees to scratch a couple of runs off Price and it will be a battle of the bullpen for the last two innings and the Yankees are great and will win this one 3-2 as they steal the opening game.
Jesse Schule
Chicago vs. Detroit
Play: Over 9
The Tigers have been scoring plenty of runs lately, winning four of their last five, and going over the total in nine of their last 11. They host the White Sox in a matinee on Monday, and I expect to see a slugfest in Motor City. Jeff Samardzija will toe the slab for the Sox, and he got just destroyed by Oakland his last time out. The 30 year old right-hander surrendered 10 runs on 11 hits in just three innings, losing by a score of 17-6. He signed a massive contract in the off-season, and has been a major disappointment. The White Sox had plenty of offers to unload him at the trade deadline, and surely they are second guessing the decision to keep him. He's 3-9 with a 7.49 ERA since the All Star break. The Tigers hand the ball to rookie left-hander Kyle Ryan, who has appeared in 13 games this season, most of those appearances coming out of the bullpen. He's posted a 5.32 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP, and doesn't go deep into ball games when he does start. That's often a problem for the Tigers, who's bullpen ranks dead last in the American League with an ERA of 4.59. Miguel Cabrera was 5-for-11 with five RBIs in the series versus Kansas City, and he's batting .363 at Comerica Park.
Jim Feist
Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals
Pick: Washington Nationals
The Nationals won their third in a row on Sunday and seventh in their last eight games with a blowout victory over Miami. The Nats are in dire straights though, sitting seven back of the Mets in the NL East and trailing both Pittsburgh and Chicago for the two Wild Card spots. That makes wins again the bottom tier teams of utmost importance. The Orioles make the short trip to the nation's capital today to play the Nationals. The Orioles are 7-4 over their last 11 games and playing better, but still trail the Blue Jays by 12 games in the AL East. Ubaldo Jimenez starts for Baltimore today. Jimenez has been a solid starter, though he is coming off just a fiving inning, four run performance against Boston. The Nats will start Gio Gonzalez. Gonzo has been very good of late, allowing just three runs over his last 18 1/3 innings, striking out 26 and walking nine. The Nationals still have a outside shot to make the post season, but they need wins like today's most desperately. I'll take the Nationals here on Monday.
Mr Vegas
Andrew Luck Over or Under 289.5 yards passing
The Colts are home with plenty of speed in the passing game on offense. They play indoors and face a strong Jets defensive line, so they won't be able to run the football. That means Luck throwing 50-55 times. Play Andrew Luck over 289.5 yards passing.
Vegas Butcher
Detroit Tigers +120 (1st 5 Innings) - Game 1
Detroit Tigers -110 (1st 5 Innings) - Game 2
Tigers have a horrific BP so no need to keep bullpens in play. The reason for these two picks is that Tigers are featuring 2 lefties on the mound. They're not very good but neither are Chicago's starters - Samardzija nor Johnson. White Sox don't hit lefties at all, ranking 29th out of 30 offensively against them. I believe Detroit has the offensive advantage in both of these games, their starters are either 'better' or on the same level as Chicago's, and defensively Tigers should have a leg up as well (#9 vs #29 for Chicago). No Miggy for game 1 but he should be back for the 2nd one. I like Detroit's chances of grabbing both in the first 5 innings.
Washington Nationals -140
Against lefties Baltimore ranks 22nd offensively, a bottom-10 lineup. Today they'll get one of the better lefties on the mound in Gio Gonzalez. Over the last 30-days Gonzalez has an e-ERA of 3.4 with a 28% K-rate, and 13% SwStr%. Basically the numbers indicate to me that hitters have had trouble picking up his 'stuff' lately. I expect Baltimore's offense to struggle here. On the other side, Jimenez has had a 4.5 e-ERA over the last 30-days, with an 18% K-rate and only a 7% SwStr% (league average is 7.5%). This is also a pitcher who has a 4.7 FIP on the road this year with a 1.3 HR/9 rate. Nats rank 3rd offensively over the last month or so. They're also winning games going 7-1 in the last 8. My model has this one at -154 Washington so there's some odds-value in their favor as well.
Tampa Bay Rays -120
Going to back my 6th ranked starting pitcher in this one as Archer takes the mound for Rays tonight. Boston ranks 8th against lefties but they are only 17th against right-handers this season and 22nd in ISO. I know Archer is 0-2 against them on the year but he's been a bit unlucky. In 16.2 innings he's registered 27 K's and only 4 BB's against the Red Sox, numbers that indicate dominance. He has a 1.9 SIERA in his 3 starts against them. For comparison's sake, the lowest SIERA in the league belongs to Clayton Kershaw, at 2.3. I expect a dominant outing out of him tonight. On the other side we have Rodriguez going for Boston, and he'll be facing the Rays for the 2nd time in his young career. In that first meeting with them he registered a 5.4 SIERA, issues 4 BB's, and allowed 3 ER's in 5 innings. Tampa ranks 3rd offensively against lefties this season so chances are that they'll have success off him in this one. Throw in a better BP for the visitors and I love Rays' chances of getting a win tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
Rays/Red Sox Under 8
I believe we are getting some great value here with this total sitting at 8 with the starting pitching matchup that we have. Tampa Bay will send out their ace in Chris Archer, who has been one of the best road starters in baseball the last couple of years. Archer is 9-5 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.087 WHIP over 15 road starts in 2015.
Boston counters with Eduardo Rodriguez, who has quietly turned in a strong rookie season. Rodriguez has posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 19 starts. He's been at his best at home and comes into this game with a 1.56 ERA over his last 3 starts. I like his chances of pitching well here against a weak Rays lineup.
UNDER is 17-8 in the Rays 25 road games this season with a total set at 8 to 8.5 runs, 18-6 in their last 24 road games when revenging a loss where they scored 1 or less runs and 9-0 in their last 9 road games after playing 6 or more consecutive games against a division opponent. UNDER is also 5-1 in Rodriguez's last 6 starts against the AL East and 4-0 in their Red Sox last 4 after a win.
Larry Ness
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros
MLB’s 2015 regular season enters its final TWO weeks with THREE teams from the AL West battling for two postseason spots, with the AL Central Twins also possibly having a say in the matter. Texas leads the NL West by 1 1/2 games over Houston (79-71), which is 2 1/2 ahead of Los Angeles (76-73) for the league's second wild-card spot (the Twins are tied with the Angels at 76-73). The new week opens Monday with a three-game series between the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels at Minute Maid Park, which just might help provide some clarity. Texas and Minnesota are both idle on Monday.
A five-game losing streak last week cost the Astros first place in the division but 10-6 and 5-1 victories against Oakland over the weekend, somewhat helped to ‘right the ship.’ Meanwhile, after winning the first three of a four-game series at Minnesota, the Angels were not able to complete the sweep, losing 8-1 on Sunday. Houston leads the season series 9-7, although the Angels took two of three from the Astros at home from September 11-13. Dallas Keuchel was a loser in the opener of that series, giving up three unearned runs over six innings in the 3-2 defeat but things were MUCH worse his last time out. Keuchel surrendered a career-high nine runs on 11 hits including (three HRs), over a season-low 4.2 innings in Wednesday's 14-3 loss at Texas. "They ambushed him early, and it seemed like every ground ball found a hole, every ball in the air went to the wall or out of the park, which is unusual for Dallas," manager A.J. Hinch said.
Keuchel starts at home tonight (more on that in a bit) and faces Jered Weaver, who was his “opposite number” back on September 11 in Anaheim (3-2 Angels win). This marks Weaver’s 10th big league season and it looks as if for the first time, he won’t reach double digits in wins. Injuries have limited Waver to 23 starts in 2015 and he enters this contest just 7-11. His current ERA of 4.74 would the highest of his career (4.33 ERA in 2008 was the only other time he finished over 4.00 in a season) and on the season, he’s been BRUTAL on the road (3-9 with a 6.21 ERA in 13 starts / Angels are 4-9).
Jered Weaver will be trying to end his road funk tonight, as he enters 1-6 with a 7.40 ERA in his previous seven away starts. Ending that funk will have to come against Keuchel, who has had a remarkable year here at Minute Maid Park. Keuchel (17-8, 2.56 ERA) is trying to become Houston's first 18-game winner since Roy Oswalt went 20-12 in 2005. The chances of getting win No. 18 should be greatly enhanced by the fact that Keuchel has won a club-record 15 in a row at home and is 13-0 with a 1.49 ERA in 16 outings this year (home WHIP is 0.91).
An even closer look at Keuchel’s 16 home starts in 2015 reveals the following. It shows 14 Houston wins (Keuchel is 13-0) and two no-decisions for Keuchel in games the Astros lost 3-2 and 2-1. In the 14 wins, Houston has outscored its opponents 80-21! That's an average of 5.7-to-1.5 RPG. Sure the price is high but is it really?