Power Sports
New York vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
Yes, the price is high, but it is also right as in starter David Price going for the heavily favored Blue Jays. Toronto doesn't lose often and consecutive defeats have been even rarer, so at home I expect a massive bounce back from them in tonight's series opener vs. the Yankees, who are off a late win Sunday.
Toronto has lost back to back games just three times since the All-Star Break. The last time they found themselves in this situation was Wednesday in Atlanta w/ Price on the mound. He led them to an easy 9-1 win over the Braves, allowing only six hits in seven innings. Price is 7-1 w/ a 2.17 ERA in his nine starts w/ the Jays and four of those wins have actually come after the team lost its previous game. Talk about the ultimate "stopper." Price is the right man to have on the mound Monday.
Had the Mets' hand not been forced with Matt Harvey last night, you have to wonder how that game would have turned out. Before being pulled prematurely (thanks Scott Boras!), Harvey was dominated the Yanks lineup, which had managed only an infield hit in five inning. After the pitching change, they would jump all over the Mets' bullpen, but a similar scenario is highly unlikely to unfold tonight. Don't forget about the Blue Jays offense either as it is, by far, the best in baseball.
Hank Goldberg
Jets at Colts
Play: Colts
For Monday’s Week 2 pro football primetime matchup between the Jets and Colts, I’m leaning to Indianapolis as the home favorite under the lights. You never want to knee-jerk in pro football and I’m not doing it here. Indy had a tough loss in Week 1 but that was on the road and against a very sound Buffalo team. The Jets aren’t world beaters and the win against the hapless Browns proves nothing. Big step up in class.
Bob Balfe
Pirates/Rockies Over 10.5
The Pirates will love hitting in this stadium tonight. Jon Gray only has 36 innings of work this year for the Rockies and he just can’t pitch in this ballpark. Opponents have just crushed the ball when he is on the mound at home. AJ Burnett has been awful as of late and I believe the Rockies will tag him for a few runs. Look for a lot of offense tonight.
Bruce Marshall
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets -1.5
The Mets have been wallowing a bit in the past week, but can come close to putting the NL East to bed once and for all with the lowly Braves in town for a visit. Atlanta completed a rare weekend sweep (albeit vs. the Phils) by scoring only two runs each of the past few days. That won't be enough vs. the Mets and Jon Niese, who is auditioning for a spot in the playoff rotation. Meanwhile, Braves starter Shelby Miller last won on May 17 and has lost six straight starts with a 5.56 ERA.
Brad Wilton
Monday night comp play is the Braves and Mets to head Over the total.
Matt Harvey looked dominant last night for the first 5 innings of the Mets game against the Yankees, then he was lifted to preserve his surgically repaired wing, and all hell broke loose, as they Yankees pounded the Mets bullpen for 11 runs.
That Over puts the Metropolitans at 24-11 Over the total their last 35 games, and I will look for that run to rise to 25-11 with the Over tonight at home against the Braves.
These N.L. East rivals just played 3 of 4 Over the total down at Turner Field from the 10th through the 13th, including a 10-7 Mets win with Jon Niese on the hill. Also included was Shelby Miller's 7-2 loss to the Mets to open the series.
Both hurlers have ERA's over 8 for their last 3 starts, and each of their last 3 starts have all played Over the total.
No compelling case to back a low-scoring game, so play the Braves and Mets to slip Over the total once again.
4* ATLANTA-N.Y. METS OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Monday freebie is the Blue Jays on the Run Line over the Yankees.
Toronto has dropped their last pair, but they have NOT lost 3 times in a row since before the All-Star break, and I don't see it happening tonight against a Yankees team they just took 3 of 4 off of last week in the Bronx.
David Price is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA in his 3 starts versus the Yankees since coming over from Detroit in a trade, and Price is also 7-1 with a 2.17 ERA in his 9 efforts in a Toronto uniform since coming over from the Tigers before the trade deadline.
Adam Warren counters for the Yankees, and is making his second straight start in the New York rotation. Warren did allow 2 runs in 4 innings in a loss at Tampa Bay his last trip to the bump, and with New York just 5-11 in the season series against the Jays, I just don't see the Yankees being close tonight.
Blue Jays on the Run Line your Monday freebie.
4* TORONTO -1.5
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Chicago White Sox over the Detroit Tigers in Game 2 of their Monday double-header.
Both Erik Johnson and Randy Wolf must start or this play is null and void.
The Tigers, believe it or not, are in the basement of the AL Central Division. This is a franchise with a proud history and recent success of getting to the playoffs and, a few times, to the World Series.
But once they realized their chances of getting back there were slim, they cleaned up a little salary and moved David Price to Toronto... among other moves.
The Tigers stayed one game behind Chicago in the Central Division after yesterday's 10-3 loss to the Royals... and it actually ended a modest four-game winning streak for Detroit.
The difference tonight is going to be on the mound where Erik Johnson (2-0, 3.71 ERA) faces off against veteran Randy Wolf (0-3, 6.48 ERA). Without knowing anything about these two pitchers, you can see (just by the numbers) where the advantage lies.
Johnson is coming in off an impressive win over Oakland where he allowed two earned runs over six innings. Wolf can't say the same thing because he hasn't won a game yet. His last outing saw him go only three innings, giving up four hits and four walks.
Take the White Sox as your free play of the day.
2* WHITE SOX
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Baltimore at WASHINGTON (-140)
The SMART INTANGIBLE for my play today - An interleague and territorial clash between the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles, and I'm going to have to side with the team stil fighting for a playoff berth. The Nationals are six games back of the New York Mets in the N.L. East. That's the team's best shot at getting into the postseason.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is the three-game win streak, and the fact the Nats are at home. They just beat up on the Miami Marlins over the weekend, and come into this series having won seven of 10. Washington is also 44-30 at home this season. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 31-47 on the road this year.
In SUMMARY, why this is the SMART PLAY with this game - Finally, with the starting pitchers, it's easy to say we have the mismatch with Gio Gonzalez going against Ubaldo Jimenez, but there's too much more with the Nats and in the event of a scratch, I don't want to miss out on this. With the most dominating hitter on the senior circuit, this could be out of hand early. Bryce Harper leads all NL hitters in home runs (41), runs scored (116), batting average (.343), on-base percentage (.470) and slugging (.674).
3* WASHINGTON
Dave Price
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -112
The Toronto Blue Jays have lost two in a row coming into this one. They want to win the AL East as soon as possible, and it starts with Game 1 of this series against the New York Yankees, who are just 2.5 games behind them. This has been a very resilient Toronto team for months. The last time the Blue Jays have lost three straight came all the way back on July 8-10, which was prior to the All-Star Break. I look for them to put an emphatic end to this brief 2-game skid with a win over the Yankees by multiple runs tonight. David Price is 16-5 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in 30 starts this year, including 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in his last three outings. Price has faced the Yankees three times as a member of the Blue Jays, going 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA while allowing 5 earned runs in 19 1/3 innings. Toronto is 9-0 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses this season, winning by 5.0 runs per game. Price is 14-1 against division opponents this season, winning by 2.8 runs per game.
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals -138
The Washington Nationals have not quit despite being left for dead a few weeks ago. In fact, they have gone 7-1 in their last eight games overall to at least give themselves some hope. The Baltimore Orioles have nothing to play for at 73-76 on the season.
I'll back the Nationals at home tonight in Game 1 of this series behind red-hot starter Gio Gonzalez. He is 6-3 with a 3.04 ERA in 12 home starts this year, and 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts, striking out 26 batters in 18 1/3 innings.
Ubaldo Jimenez is having an up and down season for the Orioles. He has gone 11-9 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.363 WHIP in 29 starts. While he has been sharp at home, Jimenez is just 5-7 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.527 WHIP in 17 road starts this year.
Jimenez is 1-9 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season. Washington is 15-2 (+11.8 Units) against the money line after 9 consecutive games versus division rivals this season. The Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 interleague road games. The Nationals are 52-23 in their last 75 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Gonzalez is 17-3 (+12.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in his career.
Brandon Lee
Washington Nationals -138
The Nationals should have no problem securing a win at home against the Orioles. Baltimore is 17-games under .500 on the road (29-46) on the season and have dropped 8 of their last 10 away from home in interleague games. The Orioles will be going up against a red-hot Washington team that has won 7 of 8. Most importantly, the Nationals have the advantage here in starting pitching with Gio Gonzalez (3.04 ERA 12 home starts, 1.47 ERA L3 overall) going up against Ubaldo Jimenez (4.88 ERA 17 road starts, 4.07 ERA L3 overall). Adding even more value here is the fact that NL home favorites of -110 or more who are starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 to 4.20 are 79-30 (73%) against the money line in the month of September over the last 5 seasons.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Jets +6.5 over INDY
Yesterday was a stark reminder how you can never put too much weight on one week. In Week 1 we all saw Oakland, Tampa, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Minnesota look brutally awful. Yesterday, all five looked like a different team. We mention this because the Bills made Andrew Luck look downright mortal last week and ruined the debut of Frank Gore and Andre Johnson. Meanwhile, the Jets dominated Cleveland and won going away. The point is that we are not putting a lot of emphasis on either team’s performance last week because as we learned yesterday, it is just too early to evaluate any team. However, readers of this space are aware that we’ve been fading the Colts for two years and we aren't aborting our plan to fade the Colts this year. Andrew Luck’s value is not in question but even Indy's humbling loss last Sunday against a much improved Bills’ squad hasn't dimmed confidence in our general read: Super Bowl contention for the Colts is a fantasy and they’re headed for a big losing season against the spread. Indy struggled to stop something called Tyrod Taylor last week, which is the real reason that Indy is fade material. When your defense can’t get off the field it makes life very difficult in other every aspect. We saw it with Atlanta for years, that being a great offense with no defense, and we’ve seen it with New Orleans and other teams as well. We also saw it with the Colts in last year’s playoffs.
A lackadaisical performance by the offense against Buffalo is the talk in Indianapolis but again, we’d be more worried about this Colts defense. We saw too many guys who couldn't get lined up correctly and an alarming lack of fundamentals in every position group. We’re not basing that on one game either, as you can add last year’s entire season to the Colts’ poor defensive performances.
The Jets had one of those extremely balanced offenses running like a well-oiled machine last week against the Brownies. New York rushed for 154 yards and passed for another 180. That came against a very good Cleveland defense. Again, we can’t put too much emphasis on one performance but we have to trust that the Jets will be able to mix it up again tonight against a much weaker defense than the one they faced last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick was nothing special against the Browns but he did not need to be. He completed 15 of 24 passes for 180 yards and two scores. Fitzpatrick is a seasoned vet that could have a big game here. The Jets have to sustain drives and keep Indy’s potent offense off the field. The Colts have covered a lot of spreads over the past couple of years but most of those wins and covers came within their own division, a division that has been so weak (Jacksonville, Houston and Tennessee) for so many years. Look at the Colts results over the past couple of seasons in games outside of the AFC South and you’ll get an idea of what we’re referring to. We’re not sold on the Jets just yet. In fact, we’re really not sold on any team being dominating or great. What we are sold on is taking back seven points against a Colts team that the market has even overvaluing for at least two years.
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta (5 innings) +165 over N.Y. METS
It’s logic defying that Shelby Miller is on a 22-game winless streak. That’s the longest drought in history for a pitcher named to an All-Star team in the same year. Miller was a good bet to rebound from a disappointing 2014 and he has done just that. Miller’s underlying metrics, on the whole, have been slightly better in the 2H than in the 1h as well. His control has risen in the 2H despite a strong first-pitch strike %. One possible explanation is that Miller feels he needs to be overly careful with location of his pitches given the dreadful run support he's received all season. He has just five wins to go with a 3.00 ERA and 19 quality starts in 30 tries. The jump in strikeouts from 2014 and even from the 1H of 2015 is supported by his swing and miss rate. In fact, his 11% swing and miss rate suggests that there could be a little more strikeout upside.
Miller’s groundball rate is still in great shape and well above his previous level. The increase in grounders can be largely attributed to a change in pitch mix. His sinker usage is up 21% from 2014 while his four-seam fastball usage is down 26%. It’s clear that Miller has made some strides in 2015. In the past, he essentially only used two pitches (70% four-seam fastball, 19% curve prior to 2015), but he has expanded his repertoire to the point where he now uses four pitches at least 9% of the time. This is a good pitcher that has had some frustrations but it could end here, as the Braves have won three in a row for the first time since July 1-4 and perhaps they’ll be able to score a couple of runs off of Jonathan Niese.
Niese is the best possible matchup for Atlanta to help Miller snap out of it. Come playoff time, Niese will be in the bullpen because he’s absolutely the odd-man out in a four-man playoff rotation. Besides that, he’s nothing more than an average pitcher. From August 22 to Sept 7, a span of four starts, Niese was tagged for 30 hits and 23 runs in 19.2 innings for an ERA of 10.53. Since the All-Star break, Niese has a 5% swing and miss rate. Over his past 26 innings, he has walked 13 batters and struck out 14. The better pitcher doesn’t always win but any time we can take back a price like this on an All-Star, who hasn’t won in 22 straight games, we’re almost always going to jump in. After a weekend series against the Yankees in which intensity levels were high, the Mets could be vulnerable here. At the very least, we get the superior pitcher at a sweet price and so we’ll play this one in five innings in an attempt to leave the pens out of it.
HOUSTON -1½ +106 over L.A. Angels
Huge series that will go a long way in determining the Angels’ fate because the Halos sit 2½ games behind the Astronauts for the second Wild-Card spot. So, while Angels manager Mike Scioscia is writing down every moot detail in the dugout and over-managing to the ninth degree, the Astros figure to be teeing off against Jered Weaver. In his last start in Seattle, Weaver allowed six hits and three runs in 4.2 innings prior to being tossed out for dotting Kyle Seager. The incident started with Seager calling for time in the batters' box. Weaver became impatient, leading to the pair barking back and forth. Following a brief delay, Seager indicated he was ready and Weaver responded with an 83 mph fastball into Seager's ribs. Weaver was immediately ejected. The radar gun indicated that was Weaver’s hardest thrown pitch of the night. Our relentless attack on this stiff is not about to end here in Houston. This is an unforgiving park and Weaver may be the most hittable pitcher in baseball. On the road, Weaver has a 6.21 ERA and in his last 17 innings at Minute Maid Park, he’s been taken yard three times. Weaver is pitching in the Angels biggest game of the year, which is a huge mistake.
By contrast, Dallas Keuchel will be pitching in the Astros biggest game of the year so far. There’s nothing more to say about it. Keuchel v Weaver is equivalent to Bill Gates v Mike Tyson in a game of Scrabble.
SPS Investors
Atlanta vs. New York
Pick: Atlanta
At this point in the baseball season, teams are starting to make preparations for their post-season run and that sometimes means playing conservatively in terms of resting players, experimenting with different lineups and just trying to get into the playoffs injury free. While this is certainly the best practice for the team moving forward, it often makes the end of the season extremely difficult from a handicapping perspective. This is the point in the season where "Value" almost trumps actual team performance simply with all of these supposed "good teams" putting in half-hearted efforts. The Mets currently fall into this category in this matchup. These two teams just met earlier this month with the Mets coming away with a 4-0 sweep and this is one game where Atlanta will certainly be looking for revenge.
Shelby Miller has had a great season although you wouldn't be able to see that from his overall record. Miller has pitched well beyond what his record shows, however he has had the unfortunate luck to be the pitcher in the league to receive the least amount of run support this season. On the year Miller has actually has better statistical metrics than his counterpart this season and Niese has been struggling over his past few starts. The Mets may be the overall better team this season; however all of the value is on Miller and the Braves in this contest.
Harry Bond
INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 over NY Jets
Steam team goes 3-0 on Sunday and we cashed another easy winner here with the under in the Washington-St Louis game. Tonight we look for Indianapolis to bounce back from their week 1 debacle in Buffalo. Jets took advantage of 5 Cleveland turnovers in their week 1 win and that's not going to happen tonight against a Colts team that is 9-0 as Monday Night Chalk and 13-1 ATS off a straight up loss!Andrew Luck is still the best young QB in the NFL and proves it tonight! Take the Colts.