Dave Essler
Brewers / Cubs Over 8
Hammel has just not been as sharp as he was, a 1.50 WHIP over his last seven starts. So, I think Milwaukee scores here (and don't really think there's value to the Cubs at that price even in a parlay) - and of course it's Peralta, who typically sucks. I do worry a BIT about the Cubs bullpen since they've been very good lately, but I'll go with the regression to the mean here, which is 3.61 at home this season. It's decent - but not unbeatable. The Cubs come in off of huge series' with the Cardinals and Pirates, so there's going to be some sort of mental letdown IMO. With the most recent line move I suspect that Braun isn't playing, but he's just not been doing anything to help us or the Brewers this season - in Wrigley in almost any weather with any lineup this is a doable number - but there's little or no dominant breeze and temperatures around 70 at game time (and dropping). If we get the Peralta that's not the one that shutout the Reds - but the one that lasted less than three innings against the Indians and four against the Padres (two teams that cannot hit nor do they need to) then this will be simple. 6-5 type game very possible here.