SPORTS ADVISORS
Indianapolis (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at Miami (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Dolphins look to bounce back from a mistake-filled season-opening loss at Atlanta when they welcome Peyton Manning and the Colts to Land Shark Stadium.
Indianapolis held off the Jaguars 14-12 in new coach Jim Caldwell’s debut, but failed to cover as a 6½-point home favorite. Manning (28-for-39, 294 yards, one TD, one INT) had a typical solid outing, but the Colts managed just 71 rushing yards on 31 carries. On the bright side, the Indy defense limited the Jags to 228 total yards (114 rushing, 114 passing).
The Colts lost starting WR Anthony Gonzalez to a knee injury against Jacksonville and he’ll miss several weeks. Also, defensive leader Bob Sanders, who didn’t play last week, has been ruled out again for this contest.
Miami committed four turnovers, including three lost fumbles, which led to 10 Falcons points in last week’s 19-7 loss as a four-point road underdog. The Dolphins trailed 19-0 before getting a garbage fourth-quarter touchdown pass from Chad Pennington (21-for-29 for 176 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) to Ricky Williams with 3:29 to play. The Miami offense produced just 259 total yards, but the defense stuffed RB Michael Turner and the Falcons ground attack, allowing just 68 rushing yards on 27 carries.
These teams last met on New Year’s Eve 2006, when the Colts edged the Dolphins 27-22, but failed to cash as a nine-point home favorite. Although Indy has won the last two in this series, Miami is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS six meetings this decade. Also, the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head clashes and the visitor is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.
The Colts have cashed in five of their last six on Monday Night Football, and they’re 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 when laying three points or less on the road. Conversely, Indianapolis is in ATS funks of 2-6-1 overall as a favorite and 2-5 in September.
Miami carries nothing but negative ATS trends, including 3-7 overall, 6-17 at home since 2006 (2-7 last year), 1-8-2 in September, 1-4 as a home ‘dog, 1-7-1 when catching three points or less in South Beach and 1-8-2 in September. The Fish have also failed to cover in Week 2 each of the last four years.
For Indianapolis, the under is on runs of 6-2 overall, 10-4 in September, 6-1 in AFC play and 5-2 in Week 2 action. Also, the Dolphins carry “under” streaks of 6-1 overall dating to last season, 8-2 at home, 10-2 in Week 2, 6-2 against the AFC and 4-0 as an underdog. However, the over is 11-5 in Miami’s last 16 Monday night appearances, and four of the last five Colts-Dolphins battles have topped the total.
Finally, the underdog cashed in both Monday night games in Week 1, and both soared over the total. Going back to the start of last season, the over is 13-4-1 in Monday Night Football.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
N.Y. Yankees (95-55) at L.A. Angels (89-60)
American League division leaders square off as the Yankees continue their West Coast road trip with veteran lefty Andy Pettitte (13-6, 4.14 ERA) going up against the Angels and southpaw Joe Saunders (13-7, 4.75) at Angel Stadium in Anaheim.
New York lost two of three in Seattle over the weekend, falling 7-1 Sunday. Even with the loss, Joe Girardi’s squad is 16-7 in its last 23 on the road, including 7-1 on the road against left-handed starters. The Yankees are on further runs of 57-23 overall, 4-0 on Mondays, 20-9 in series openers and 35-16 against teams with winning records. New York leads the A.L. East by five games over Boston.
Los Angeles clubbed the Rangers 10-5 on Sunday to take two of three from their nearest rival in the A.L. West standings and open a 7½-game lead over the Rangers. The Angels return home with a 6-1 mark in their last seven in Anaheim, and they’re on further positive runs of 5-2 in series openers, 5-0 at home against winning teams and 39-19 against southpaw starters.
These teams met a week ago for a single makeup game in New York with the Yankees getting a 5-3 victory, ending L.A.’s four-game winning streak in this rivalry. However, in California, the Angels have won 19 of the last 26 meetings, and they’re 4-1 the last five times they’ve faced Pettitte.
Pettitte has been tough on the road, going 8-2 with a 3.52 ERA, and he is 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA in his last three starts overall. New York has won seven of his last eight outings, with the lone loss coming on Sept. 11 versus the Orioles, when Pettitte allowed three runs on five hits in five innings of a 10-4 defeat. With the veteran on the hill, the Yankees are on positive streaks of 5-0 on the road, 18-6 on Mondays and 8-2 when he opens a series.
In two starts against the Angels this season, Pettitte has allowed a combined 11 runs on 16 hits in 10 innings with the teams splitting the two games, and he’s 12-9 with a 4.70 ERA in 27 career regular-season starts against Los Angeles.
Saunders is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three outings. On Tuesday, he gave up five runs, but just two earned, in a 9-8 loss in Boston, snapping the Angels’ four-game winning streak behind the lefty. With Saunders pitching, the Angels are on streaks of 41-19 overall, 7-2 at home, 27-13 against winning teams, 9-3 against the A.L. East and 24-8 in series openers.
Saunders has an ugly 7.97 ERA in four career starts against the Yankees, but Los Angeles has taken three of those contests. That includes a 10-6 home win July 10, when Saunders gave up five runs on nine hits in five innings.
The Yankees have stayed below the total in 50 of Pettitte’s last 76 starts overall, 22 of 31 when he’s on the road and eight of his last 11 against A.L. West foes, while as a team, the Yankees have stayed under the mark in five of six against winning teams and five of six on Mondays.
With Saunders pitching, the Angels are on “over” runs of 16-5 overall, 7-2 at home, 18-7-1 against the A.L. East and 3-1 when he faces New York, but as a team, the Angels are on “under” streaks of 19-7-1 overall, 5-0-1 at home, 5-0 in series openers and 6-1 at home against left-handers. Finally, in this series, the “over” is on runs of 21-8 overall and 13-3 in California.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
DUNKEL
NFL
Indianapolis at Miami
The Dolphins look to take advantage of an Indianapolis team that is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games as a favorite. Miami is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3)
Game 235-236: Indianapolis at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 135.704; Miami 133.365
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Under
MLB
Boston at Kansas City
The Royals look to build on their 7-3 record in their last 10 games as an underdog. Kansas City is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+170)
Game 951-952: San Diego at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Leblanc) 14.029; Pittsburgh (McCutchen) 14.756
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Over
Game 953-954: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 14.574; NY Mets (Misch) 15.069
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+150); Under
Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Gorzelanny) 15.865; Milwaukee (Looper) 15.547
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+125); Over
Game 957-958: St. Louis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 13.651; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.638
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-140); Over
Game 959-960: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 15.267; Arizona (Davis) 14.040
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110); Under
Game 961-962: Baltimore at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 14.185; Toronto (Purcey) 15.342
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-135); Over
Game 963-964: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 16.455; White Sox (Hudson) 15.445
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Over
Game 965-966: Boston at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 16.182; Kansas City (Dinardo) 16.828
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+170); Over
Game 967-968: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.526; LA Angels (Saunders) 15.983
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Under
Game 969-970: Texas at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 14.004; Oakland (Gonzalez) 17.080
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+115); Over
WNBA
San Antonio at Phoenix
The Mercury look to take advantage of a San Antonio team that is just 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Phoenix is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
Game 623-624: San Antonio at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 108.214; Phoenix 120.885
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 12 1/2; 176
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 8 1/2; 183
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8 1/2); Under
Carlo Campanella
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Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts
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Miami hosts the Colts on Monday Night Football and find themselves in the home Dog role for their home opener.Monday's home game is sandwiched in between two tough road games- Last Sunday's tough 7-19 loss in Atlanta and then they'll have to travel to San Diego next weekend- The road might be a better place for the Fish as they're 1-5 ATS during their last six at home behind Head Coach Tony Sparano. Dolphins QB Pennington is not in his best role either, as we find him at 4-11 ATS as a home Dog and now he tackles a Colts team that's looking to put some offense together after skimming by last Sunday with a 14-12 win against Jacksonville. Expect QB Manning to get things rolling in front of a national TV audience as the Colts are a profitable 5-1 ATS after being held to 14 points or less in their previous game during the Regular season.
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7* Play On Indianapolis
Brian Hansen
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New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
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LA ANGELS is 17-9 (+11.4 Units) against NY YANKEES over the last 3 seasons. LA ANGELS is 10-2 (+8.3 Units) against NY YANKEES over the last 3 seasons. With Saunders throwing better than Pettitte lately, this one's a NO BRAINER. Play LA!
Marc Lawrence
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San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
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The Giants open a critical three- game series with the Diamondbacks when they send Barry Zito to the hill in Arizona tonight. Zito enters tonight's fray with wins in 8 of his last 12 team starts overall and 8 of his last 10 team starts in September. He's also 2-0 in his last two starts in this series and 2-0 his last two starts in this park. Look for more of the same here this evening.
Vernon Croy
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Baltimore Orioles
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We are getting very good value here with the Orioles Monday night who have the superior pitcher on the mound. David Purcey (0-2, 6.32) has given up 4 homeruns over his last 2 starts and he was lit up in his only start against the Orioles in 2008 allowing 11 hits and 6 earned runs over just 5 innings. The Jays are just 1-6 in Purcey's last 7 starts in game 1 of a series and they are also just 7-20 in their last 27 games when facing a right hand starter. Chris Tillman (2-3, 4.50 ERA) pitched solid in his only start against the Jays this season where he allowed just 4 hits over 6.7 innings. Take the Baltimore Orioles Monday night.
MTi Sports
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St Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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The Cardinals are 11-0 after a loss and it is the first game of the series and the Astros are 1-10 after a 5+ run loss. Also, Houston is 0-4 THIS season as a 140+ favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start and St Louis is 5-0 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start.
Rob Vinciletti
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Over 8½
The pitching match up is what makes this play pop tonight. Barry Zito takes the mound tonight for the Giants and he has allowed 12 earned run in 16 innings over his last three starts vs Arizona. Doug Davis makes the start tonight for the Diamondbacks. In his home starts vs the Giants he has been rather easy to hit. He has allowed 9 runs and 16 hits vs the Giants in just 10 innings. The Giants are averaging over 5 runs per game over the past week. Both teams are cashing over 70% to the over on Monday nights. Take the over 8.5 runs tonight.
Brad Diamond Sports
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Play: Milwaukee over the Cubs
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Difficult spot for Chicago coming off a road set against the Cardinals, especially considering last night's ESPN national affair. Emotionally and fundamentally the home standing Brewers have a major edge.
Tony Mathews
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Selection: Baltimore/Toronto Over 9
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The Baltimore Orioles will use starting pitcher Chris Tillman. Chris Tillman has been having huge pitching problems as of late. In fact, Chris Tillman has a 6.19 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Chris Tillman giving up many runs once again today.
The Toronto Blue Jays will use starting pitcher David Purcey. David Purcey has been terrible this season. In fact, David Purcey has a 6.32 ERA on the season. We also see David Purcey giving up many runs once again today.
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To say the least, we see many runs being scored today!
Take the Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blue Jays Over 9
Hentai Sports
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San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction : OVER 8.5
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The pitching match up is what makes this play pop tonight. Barry Zito takes the mound tonight for the Giants and he has allowed 12 earned run in 16 innings over his last three starts vs Arizona. Doug Davis makes the start tonight for the Diamondbacks. In his home starts vs the Giants he has been rather easy to hit. He has allowed 9 runs and 16 hits vs the Giants in just 10 innings. The Giants are averaging over 5 runs per game over the past week.
JIM FEIST
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SAN DIEGO PADRES / PITTSBURGH PIRATES
TAKE: UNDER
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Would you rather watch grass grow or the Padres and Pirates play here on Monday? Well, they may actually be one in the same for the folks at the ballpark as you really don't expect many runs between these two clubs. The Padres are last in the league in runs scored (3.85 rpg) and the Pirates are just two slots higher at 3.97 rpg. Add to the fact that the two starters in this contest have a combined 14 games of major league experience and the grass option is looking mighty good. Wade LeBlanc starts for the Padres and has pitched well with a 2-1 record and 4.30 ERA. Daniel McCutchen opposes for the Pirates and has just three games this season with a 5.50 ERA. Boring or not, cashing with a winner is just as green and this game will be going UNDER the total.
DAVE COKIN
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CHICAGO CUBS / MILWAUKEE BREWERS
TAKE: MILWAUKEE BREWERS
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The Brewers are hot, winning five straight heading into tonight's hookup with the Cubs. The scheduling dynamics favor Milwaukee, with the Cubs playing on Sunday night in St. Louis. Tom Gorzelanny doesn't match up especially well with this lineup, and the Cubs lefty has been working only sporadically out of the bullpen lately. Braden Looper is no great shakes, but he wins more than he loses at home and the team analysis puts me on the Brewers tonight.
Karl Garrett
Indianapolis -3 at MIAMI
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Sunday comp play winner on the Vikings from the G-Man, now 7-3 the last 10 days with my comp plays.
For Monday night in the NFL, the G-Man going to play the UNDER between the Colts and Dolphins.
Both teams opened with UNDERS last week, and both teams struggled on offense in doing so. To think that the offenses will all of the sudden light up the scoreboard would be wishful thinking.
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Truth be told, the points have been hard to come by of late for both teams, as Indy has played 6 of their last 8 dating back to last season - playoffs included -UNDER the posted total, while Miami has played 10 of their 12 dating back to a season ago - playoffs included - UNDER the posted price.
Miami has also held LOW in 8 of their last 10 games played at Landshark Stadium.
I think it is going to be one of those nights where there are plenty of three-and-outs.
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G-Man going UNDER the total this Monday night.
3♦ UNDER
Dominic Fazzini
St. Louis at HOUSTON -145
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I nailed my play on the Ravens on Sunday, giving me three straight winners on my complimentary selections! Now I'm turning back to the diamond to pick up another victory.
Astros starter Wandy Rodriguez (13-10, 2.77 ERA) is a really good pitcher, but when he takes the mound at Minute Maid Park he becomes nearly unbeatable.
The left-hander is 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA in 14 home outings this season. He has pitched pretty well everywhere lately, allowing two runs or fewer in 12 of his last 14 starts, logging an ERA of 2.15, but is only 7-4 during that stretch as Houston has struggled to give him much run support in many of those games.
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Rodriguez has pitched well against St. Louis this year, holding the Cardinals to a .174 average in four starts, but he has gone just 1-2 despite a 2.25 ERA. He is 2-1 with a 0.34 ERA in his last four home starts vs. the NL Central leaders.
Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse (5-8, 4.83) has been hurt much of the season and inconsistent for all of it. The right-hander is making his first start since Sep. 12, when he allowed four runs and seven hits in 3 1/3 innings in a 7-6 loss to Atlanta.
Lohse is 1-4 with a 4.09 ERA in five road starts vs. Houston.
With the Cardinals on the verge of a division title, starting Lohse today is little more than just an audition to see if he's ready to contribute in the postseason. Yes, Houston has lost seven straight games coming into today, but I think it breaks that spell with Rodriguez on the mound. Take the Astros in this one.
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3♦ HOUSTON