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Boston at KANSAS CITY +160
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Sunday comp play winner on New Orleans-Philadelphia OVER the total, now 36-21-3 with our free plays the last 60 days.
With Sunday's 2-1 win at Chicago, the Royals head back home having won 11 of their last 14 games, and we like the price on them tonight at home against Boston.
Sure, the Red Sox have lost just once in their last 12 games, but our jury is out on Tim Wakefield, as his durability during the second half of the season has been questionable at best.
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Lenny Dinardo is making just his third start of the season for Kansas City, and while we don't expect him to go very long in this spot, we are also of the opinion that Wakefield is not going to be around for very long in this game either.
Series numbers point towards Boston, but the way the Royals have been competing down the stretch, and the fact you don't know what you are going to get from Wakefield has us playing the home underdog in this spot on Monday night.
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Play on Kansas City.
2♦ KANSAS CITY
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Yankees at L.A. ANGELS -120
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Back on the diamond for a FREE winner tonight on the Angels as they host the Yankees in this possible playoff preview.
Tonight's battle of lefties should be a good one, but we're going with the Angels at home who are feeling pretty good about themselves after winning three of their last four, including two of three in Texas against their nearest rivals in the A.L. West.
Joe Saunders (13-7, 4.75 ERA) is on the hill for Los Angeles and he's 6-3 in front of the home crowd this year, including 2-0 in his last three outings. The Angels have won four of his last five starts and in each of his last five he's held the opposition to two earned runs or less. He faced these Yankees back on July 10 and got the win thanks to his offense pulling out the 10-6 victory. Los Angeles has won three of his four starts against the Yankees in his career.
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For the Yankees, it's veteran Andy Pettitte (13-6, 4.14 ERA). He was roughed up by the Angels back on July 11, giving up six runs on seven hits in 4.1 innigns of a 14-8 loss in Anaheim. Pettitte has lost his last three outings in Anaheim and been hit hard in all three.
The Angels are 39-19 in their last 58 against left-handed starters, including 10-3 in the last 13 home games against southpaws. Los Angeles is 6-1 in their last seven at home and 9-3 when Saunders faces A.L. East teams.
The Angels are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings with the Yankees in California and 4-1 in their last five meetings with Pettitte. Love the Angels in this one.
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3♦ L.A. ANGELS
Jeff Benton
N.Y. Yankees at L.A. ANGELS -120
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The Raiders rallied late on Sunday to give me my third straight free-play winner. Let’s make it four in a row Monday by playing the Yankees-Angels game OVER the total.
Both these squads are loaded with quality hitters, so it should come as no surprise that pitching has been virtually nonexistent in this year’s meetings. And when I say nonexistent, I mean in seven Yankees-Angels battles this year, there have been a total of 97 runs – or an average of nearly 14 per game! Six of those seven games soared over the total, including all three clashes in Anaheim in July, when L.A. swept the weekend series by scores of 10-6, 14-8 and 5-4.
We’ve got two pitchers on the mound today that scream score-fest, too. Both Joe Saunders and Andy Pettitte have ERAs north of 4.10, and both come from the left side of the mound, which is noteworthy because both these teams crush left-handed pitching (each is hitting over .280 versus southpaws).
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Finally, in two starts against the Angels this year, Pettitte has allowed 11 runs in 10 innings, and going back to 2002 against L.A., he’s given up 48 runs (47 earned) in 10 starts covering 55 innings (7.69 ERA). Saunders, meanwhile, has given up 19 runs (18 earned) in four career starts against New York spanning just 20 1/3 innings (7.97 ERA). Throw in two tired bullpens, and I see no reason why these teams won’t reach double digits in runs for the sixth time in eight meetings this season.
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3♦ YANKEES-ANGELS OVER
Stephen Nover
Texas at OAKLAND +105
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The A's are playing as well as any team in baseball going 12-2. They've won seven in a row, including their past six home contests.
Texas, on the other hand, is at low ebb. The Rangers realize they are not going to make the playoffs following a disastrous 2-7 homestand where they averaged 2.1 runs and batted .204. Not having Michael Young and Josh Hamilton has destroyed the Rangers' offense.
Oakland is playing with much more confidence. The A's have had the Rangers' number, too, beating them seven of the past eight times. Oakland is averaging 6.4 runs and batting .310 during its past seven games.
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The Rangers are hoping Kevin Millwood can turn things around. That's doubtful, though. Millwood has tallied off dramatically. He's 2-5 with a 6.29 ERA in his last 12 starts going back to July. Millwood's last two starts have been brutal with an ERA of 10.38 and a WHIP of 2.42.
Millwood has had trouble, too, pitching in Oakland. He's allowed 15 runs in his last three starts at Oakland spanning 16 2/3 innings.
The line is low because Edgar Gonzalez, a spot starter, is going for the A's. Gonzalez is more of a long reliever than starter. He did well, though, when he faced Texas last Tuesday allowing just one run in four innings.
Gonzalez has pitched better at home with a 3.34 ERA.
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The A's are hot and worth riding especially at this fair price. The Rangers are worth fading until they start hitting and their morale picks up, if that should even happen again this season.
2♦ OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Masterbets
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Colts v Dolphins
Play: Under
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The total number for this game opened way too high at 44 points. Shrewd bettors have already grabbed that and bet the number down to the current level of 42 points. Even at this number there is some value in taking the UNDER. Our database suggests that the correct points total should be only 39.5 points, so there is still some wiggle room for a good play on a low scoring game.
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The Dolphins are going to rely on defense to get them through games like this and at home they might be able to stifle a Colts offense that generally takes a few games to warm up anyway. The Dolphins are becoming an "Under" team - in their last 12 games TEN have gone under the total (10-2). Look for that trend to continue here. The UNDER is worth a small wager.
Randall the Handle
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Baltimore +1.20 over TORONTO
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Both these squads are laboring down the stretch but the Orioles remain the more enthusiastic bunch with a slew of young talent that still look forward to coming to the park everyday. The Jays meanwhile, look completely disinterested. They scored one run in the final two games of its series with the Rays over the weekend and they return home from a 10-day trip tonight. October can’t come soon enough for the Blue Jays. David Purcey is a guy that really has good stuff but he throws a ton of pitches and walks too many. His record at the Rogers Center is shaky at best, as it would appear that he’s feeling a lot more pressure throwing at home. Chris Tillman is coming off three games against Tampa, Texas and the Yanks and he’ll be taking a huge step down in class after facing that aforementioned trio. He threw a gem in his last start against the Rays and picked up a win in the process. The O’s definitely have a good chance to get off the mattress against this very ripe host. Play: Baltimore +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals
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This series is just what the Red Sox need as they try and sew up the Wild Card berth for the playoffs. They come in having won 10 of 11 overall and they've beaten Kansas City 12 of the last 17 head to head matchups. No AL team has lost more money this season than have the Royals. Boston is 17-5 this season after scoring nine runs or more in their previous game. Starter Tim Wakefield has a 37-15 TSR when favored. KC has lost 23 of 33 games at home.
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Play on: Boston
EZ WINNERS
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St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros -142
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Wandy Rodriguez deserves a much better fate than his 13-10 record this season. Magic Wandy has been the ace of the Astros staff this season posting an ERA of only 2.77 and he continues to pitch well posting a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts. The Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Lohse has struggled to recover from a forearm injury this season. Lohse was a 15 game winner last season, but is just 5-8 with a 4.83 ERA this year and has an ERA of 8.53 in his last three games. Lohse has not won on the road all season and the Cardinals are 1-6 in Lohse's last seven starts as a road underdog. The Astros are 14-3 in Rodriguez's last 17 home starts and St. Louis has lost six straight games in the Space City. Play on Houston.
LT Profits
Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics
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The Under is now 15-6-1 in the last 22 head to head meetings between the Texas Rangers and the Oakland Athletics, including 10-4-1 this season with 11 of those games failing to exceed nine total runs combined.
We see no reason why tonight should be any different. The Rangers have basically fallen out of the wild card because of their inability to hit, totally changing their personality from the great hitting, poor pitching teams of the recent past. This 2009 version of the offense is averaging an anorexic 2.90 runs per game over the last 10 games with a team batting average of just .229 overall.
Things should not change tonight vs. Edgar Gonzalez and a red-hot Oakland bullpen. Gonzalez has proven to be serviceable in his two September starts, albeit in limited innings. He faced these Rangers last Tuesday and limited them to one run and four hits in four innings. This came on the heels of his first September start where he allowed one run and three hits in five innings vs. Kansas City, and once he is lifted, the Athletics bullpen has a great 1.90 ERA the last 10 games.
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Now Texas starter Kevin Millwood has been hit hard lately, but the veteran still has a nice 3.94 ERA on the season and the Athletics should be the perfect remedy for him to get back on track. This is because he has now allowed two earned runs or less in each of his five starts vs. Oakland since the beginning of last season, with two of those starts coming this year.
Finally, Texas has the best Under record in the Major Leagues at 90-50-8, 64.3 percent, and given the recent head-to-head history here and the spacious dimensions of McAfee Coliseum, we look for that amazing Under pattern to continue.
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Pick: Rangers/Athletics Under 9
BIG AL
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Chicago at Milwaukee
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The Cubs have decided to skip Rich Harden and insert lefthanded veteran Tom Gorzelanny into the rotation. Harden was roughed up by the Brewers in his last start, giving up five runs on five hits and three walks over three innings. This will be Gorzelanny's fifth start with the Cubs. Although Gorzelanny has a winning record at 2-1 in nine appearances since joining Chicago on July 30, he also has an unsightly 4.74 ERA during that time. He just faced the Brewers in a relief role on September 17 at home, and did not fare very well, allowing two earned runs in less than an inning of mop-up work. The Brew-Crew will counter with righthander Braden Looper. Looper struggled to get through the fifth inning at Wrigley Field on Wednesday but managed to win his 13th game, a new career high after notching 12 wins in each of the previous two seasons as a starter. But many visiting starters struggle at Chicago's home park, so the fact that he was able to reach that career milestone at one of the toughest places to pitch no doubt makes it all the more special. Plus, Looper had to work through some discomfort, the result of a batting practice line drive that struck him square in the back the previous afternoon and caused his back to tighten in the middle innings of his outing against the Cubs.
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PLAY MILWAUKEE
Bob Harvey
Yankees at Angels
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The playoffs are just about decided in the majors, and this week's Angels, Yankees series in Anaheim just might be a sneak peek of exciting October baseball.
In what could be a preview of this season’s ALCS, the Angels host the Yankees at the Big A in Anaheim. A pair of 13-game winners and veteran lefties, Joe Saunders and Andy Pettite, will go at it tonight. Saunders has come on strong after a slow start going 2-0 in his last three starts with an earned run average of 2.50. Pettite is also 2-0 over the same stretch but has a substantially higher ERA of 3.72.
Mariano RiveraExcluding the bullpen, the two teams are evenly matched. The Angels ranked first in the majors in hitting and second in runs per game while the Yanks are first in scoring and second in hitting. It’s going to be the later innings where the Yanks most notable advantage on the Halos appears.
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Mariano Rivera is having another stellar season with an ERA of less than two and 40 saves in 42 opportunities. For most of the season, Brian Fuentes has been closing for the Angels. And while he leads the majors in saves with 43, he’s also an accident waiting to happen. Fuentes is 1-5 with an ERA of 4.26 and he’s blown seven save opportunities including three in the last two weeks. That’s forced Angel skipper Mike Scoscia to use a combination of Kevin Jepsen and Fuentes to close. At his current rate, Fuentes could be become the highest paid set-up man in baseball history.
Both teams could clinch their respective division titles this week. Anaheim has a 7.5 game lead over Texas with 13 games remaining and a magic number of 7 to win the West. New York has a five-game lead over Boston with 15 games remaining leaving the Yankees with a magic number of nine in order to reach the playoffs.
Trends to consider:
* The Over is 6-1 in the previous seven meetings this year.
* The Over is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings.
Tonight’s game has all the earmarks of a shoot-out. The weather is unseasonably hot. That’s going to mean that fly-balls which would usually be just a long out, could go way out, as in leaving the yard.
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This is a great spot for an Over play tonight and a “sneak peek” at things to come.
Pick: Yankees-Angels Over 9½
Frank Jordan
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros
Play: St Louis Cardinals
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Wandy Rodriguez does have 13 wins for Houston, but he also has 10 losses which means with an era of 2.77 he isn't getting the run support. Wandy is 1-3 in his last 5 starts and in those losses he lost 3-1, 4-3, and 1-0 that 1-0 is to St. Louis. Look for Pujols and Holliday to knock in runs early giving Kyle Loshe the breathing room he needs to attack the Astro hitters. Play St. Louis
John Ryan
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Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Texas Rangers
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Texas Rangers as they face Oakland set to start at 10:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 72-37 making 34.5 units since 1997. Play against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and starting a pitcher who gave up = 7.00 over his last 5 starts. Texas is a solid 9-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games versus a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start over the last 3 seasons. Texas is a solid 20-9 (+13.8 Units) against the money line after allowing 8 runs or more this season. Take Texas.
Tom Freese
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New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
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The Yankees are 1-4 their last 5 games vs. the Angels and they are 1-4 vs. the Angels with Andy Pettitte on the mound. New York is 2-5 vs. an opponent that allowed 5 or more runs in their last game. The Angels are 40-19 their last 59 games vs. lefty starters and they are 6-1 their last 7 home games. Los Angeles is 40-19 their last 59 games off a win and they are 7-2 in the last 9 home starts made by Joe Saunders. PLAY ON LOS ANGELES -
Ben Burns
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St Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros
Prediction: Under
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The Astros, who are averaging only 2.1 runs per game over their last seven, have seen three straight games (and six of their last eight) stay below the total. The Cardinals, averaging 3.4 runs per game over their last seven, saw last night's game finish above the number. However, they've still seen the UNDER go 4-1 their last five. This has the potential to be another low-scoring affair.
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Wandy Rodriguez comes in with a stellar 1.35 ERA and 0.95 WHIP his last three starts. Over that stretch he has 21 K's and four walks. All three games stayed below the total. Rodriguez has always been tough at home. This season, he's been downright dominant. In 14 road starts, he's gone 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA and 0.979 WHIP. Not surprisingly, the UNDER has gone a profitable 10-4 in those games. It should also be noted that Rodriguez has allowed one run in three straight starts vs. the Cardinals with the most recent of those two games finishing with scores of 3-1 and 1-0.
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Lohse admittedly hasn't been nearly as good as Rodriguez. In fact, his numbers have been rather ugly. However, like Rodriguez, he's had success vs. today's opponent. In 10 starts vs. the Astros, he's gone 5-4 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. In fact, he allowed three earned runs or less in nine of those 10 starts and just four in the other one. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was 5-0-1 in the last six of those. Consider the UNDER