DAVID MALINSKY
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San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: San Francisco Giants
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Barry Zito has been a meal ticket for us since the All Star break, working to a 2.36 tune over 12 starts in which he has only allowed 59 hits in 72.1 innings, and has more than twice as many strikeouts as walks. But the fact that we can get him as an underdog here shows us that the markets are still slow to react, and a Giant team that is still not dead in the playoff hunt (nine games against these Diamondbacks and Padres the rest of the way keeps the door open) can bring much more energy than a listless host that is merely playing out the final innings of a dismal season.
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So why do we get the better team, better starter and better bullpen in this range? Largely because of the 3.91 that Doug Davis shows for the full season, but take that with a grain of salt. First note that there are 100 pitchers that have worked at least 120 innings so far, and Davis rates dead last in Quality of Batters Faced (as always, we use “On Base + Slugging” as our barometer). If we simply factor him against a league average schedule he becomes a below average pitcher. At 184 innings he also does not have a whole lot left in the tank, with an 0-3/5.88 over his last six starts. But perhaps best of all here is that the Giants are loaded with hitters that read him well.
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If we use yesterday’s starting lineup as the guide, those San Francisco hitters are a combined 63-183 lifetime against Davis, a .344 clip that includes seven home runs. Things like the 17-37 from Freddy Sanchez, with five doubles and a home run, are not going to show in the Davis past history vs. the Giant uniforms. And we might even see an upgrade of those numbers if they put Edgar Renteria back on the field tonight, with his 8-18 with two homers against Davis likely getting him a nod. That helps to make the overall ERA of Davis a misleading tag, and helps us to the value that we get for this setting.
MATT FARGO
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St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
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Getting value in baseball this time of year with playoff bound teams is rare but we definitely get that tonight with the Cardinals. Lines are dictated by starting pitching and that is the case here yet we catch a team that is 16.5 games ahead of the opposing team in a huge underdog role. St. Louis currently has the smallest magic number in baseball at four and hitting the road is no issue to push that down even more. The Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 road games and a solid 12-3 in their last 15 games following a loss, one that came last night in extra innings against the Cubs. Houston is a sizable favorite despite losing seven straight games. The Astros have been up and down all season long and right now the offense is struggling, averaging only 2.1 rpg during this recent seven game skid. They turn to Wandy Rodriguez tonight and he has been the most consistent pitcher in their rotation this season. He has been solid overall and especially at home where he is 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 14 starts with Houston going 12-2 in those games. This is where we get value though. Despite allowing one run or less in seven of his last 10 starts overall, Houston is just 4-6 in those games. He has a 3.51 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 13 starts in his career against the Cardinals but is just 3-8 and Houston is 2-5 in his last seven starts against St. Louis. As we turn to the other side, the Cardinals send Kyle Lohse to the hill and he has been the exact opposite of Rodriguez. He is 0-5 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in eight road starts with the Cardinals going 0-8 in those games. Again, this is where the value comes in. He pitched good enough to win in Houston in his lone start at Minute Maid Park this season where he allowed three runs in seven innings in a 3-2 loss. In his last eight starts against the Astros, all have been quality outings as he has posted a 2.60 ERA over that span. We get a great number with the much better team and we will take advantage tonight. 3* St. Louis Cardinals
Doc's Sports
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Take San Francisco Giants Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5
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Barry Zito has reached double-digit victories for the ninth consecutive season. He has posted the third-best ERA in the majors over the last two months (2.36). Doug Davis on the hill for Arizona has the third lowest run support average in the majors (3.67). Giants have to be pretty depressed right now. The DBacks are just plain depressing.
LARRY NESS
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Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
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Chicago entered this season off back-to-back NL Central titles and the Brewers were coming off a year in which they had captured the NL's wild card spot, ending a playoff drought which had gone back to 1982. Neither team is headed to the postseason, although both teams have a chance to clinch a third straight winning season. The Cubs haven’t accomplished that feat since a six-year winning run from 1967-72 and the Brewers have only done it once (from 1978-1983). Tom Gorzelanny (5-2, 5.29 ERA) gets the call for the Cubs but is making his first start since August 20. The left-hander is taking Rich Harden's spot in the rotation and is 2-1 with a 4.82 ERA in four starts (team is 2-2) since being acquired in a trade with Pittsburgh on July 30. Gorzelanny lost both outings at Miller Park last season while with the Pirates, posting a 12.54 ERA. He's 3-3 with a 4.92 ERA in nine lifetime starts against Milwaukee (his teams are 4-5). The Brewers will counter with Braden Looper (13-6, 4.89) who beat the Cubs in his previous start Wednesday night at Wrigley Field (despite allowing five runs), to set a career high for victories. Looper is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA in three matchups this season against Chicago (team is 3-0) and 4-4 with a 2.91 ERA in 11 career starts (teams are 5-6). Looper is underrated and the Brewers come in on a five-game winning streak (have won eight of 10) while the Cubs are 32-42 on the road this year, averaging just 3.88 RPG. Take the Brewers.
Lenny Del Genio
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HOU (-135) vs STL
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Haven't seen the trends add up in such one-sided fashion like this in some time. The Cardinals have lost 13 of Kyle Lohse's 19 starts this season, including all eight on the road and eight of 10 at night. They average just 3.8 runs per game vs lefties, which means big trouble going against Wandy Rodriguez. Sure, the Astros have lost seven straight, but they have Rodriguez going tonight and he is a perfect 7-0 at home vs. division opponents (team start record) and 9-0 (TSR) at home off a team loss. Rare opportunity to play a non-contender against a playoff team. Take Houston.
Rocketman
NY Yankees @ LA Angels
Play: LA Angels
Yankees come in losers of 2 of their last 3 overall while the Angels have won 3 of their last 4. LA Angels are a very strong 32-15 against left handed starters this year. Joe Saunders is 13-7 overall this year, 6-3 at home and 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA his last 3 starts. LA Angels are 17-9 overall vs NY Yankees last 3 years including 10-2 at home vs NY Yankees. LA Angels are 3-0 at home vs NY Yankees this season. Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Angels are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a home favorite. Angels are 6-1 in their last 7 home games. Angels are 41-19 in Saunders' last 60 starts. We'll recommend a small play on LA Angels tonight!
Dennis Macklin
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: San Diego Padres
The Padres are playing hard till the end and have won ten of their last fifteen roadies. Wade Leblanc has been nails his last three starts going 2-0 with a 1.43 ERA. The Pirates mailes it in long ago and are just 3-19 in their L22. Dan McCutchen is 0-2 with a 5.50 ERA in his three starts in the Bigs allowing 27 baserunners in 18 innings work. The Padres merit a look here even as a small road favorite.
Jack Jones
Houston Astros -135
Wandy Rodriquez has been one of the best starters in the National League all year. After a brutal road trip for Houston, look for Rodriquez to stop the bleeding at home Monday. The lefty is 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA and 0.979 WHIP at home this season, simply ridiculous numbers. He haven't cooled off, either, going 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA in his last 3 outings. Kyle Lohse has hit a wall late in the year, going 0-1 with an 8.53 ERA in his last 3 starts. Lohse has been awful on the road, going 0-5 with a 6.58 ERA in 8 starts away from home this season. In fact, the Cardinals are 0-8 in his eight road starts this year. Don't look for that streak to come to an end tonight when the Cardinals have to deal with Rodriquez and his filthy "stuff" Monday. Take Houston.