Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, September 22

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Baltimore at NY Yankees
The Orioles open up a series in New York tonight and come into the contest with a 6-1 record in their last 7 games versus the Yankees. Baltimore is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-105)

Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 16.235; Atlanta (Harang) 13.282
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 5
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-140); Under

Game 953-954: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.655; Cubs (Wood) 15.604
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+150); N/A

Game 955-956: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Peavy) 16.207; LA Dodgers (Haren) 15.075
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+100); Over

Game 957-958: Colorado at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Matzek) 14.066; San Diego (Stults) 15.697
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-125); Under

Game 959-960: Seattle at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Paxton) 15.588; Toronto (Happ) 14.250
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-135); Over

Game 961-962: Kansas City at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 14.776; Cleveland 16.866
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-125); Under

Game 963-964: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Bassitt) 14.078; Detroit (Lobstein) 15.598
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Over

Game 965-966: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 16.760; NY Yankees (Pineda) 15.242
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-105); Under

Game 967-968: Houston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Tropeano) 15.752; Texas (Holland) 17.181
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-160); Over

Game 969-970: LA Angels at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 15.969; Oakland (Samardzija) 13.991
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+130); Under

Game 971-972: Arizona at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Collmenter) 14.568; Minnesota (Nolasco) 13.454
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Under

EZWINNERS

New York Jets -2.5

The Jets have looked pretty good this season despite giving one away last week in Green Bay. Geno Smith looks like he's taken a step forward as the quarterback of the Jets and he has a solid running game to lean on. I expect that running game to have access against this beat up Bears defense. Chicago is coming off of a huge come from behind win last Sunday night at San Francisco. The Bears are in a very tough scheduling spot. After making the long west coast trip, they now make the long East coast trip. Chicago is also playing in Primetime for the second straight week which has been an automatic go against. Teams playing in the second of a back to back Primetime game (Sunday night and Monday night only) are now just 1-18 against the spread the last nineteen games after Indianapolis failed in this spot last week. Chicago is beat up on both sides of the ball and I expect the Jets to get it done. Lay the points.

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins -119

The Twins fit a 91% system here tonight that plays on home favorites with a total of 8 or less and come in off a home dog loss by 5 or more runs, while scoring 4 or less runs, vs an opponent off a road dog loss and scored 2 or less runs like Arizona. These home teams win by an average 5-2 score. Arizona has lost 6 straight and 14 of 19 this month. On Monday they are just 4-11. The Twins have Ricky Nolasco making the start and he is 10-2 vs Arizona and has a 1.35 era in his last 3 starts. Josh Collmenter for the Diamondbacks has a 5.29 road era. Look for the Twins to take the opener tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Golden Retriever

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Pick: San Diego Padres

Both teams are eliminated, but they are looking for strong finishes. Colorado has taken six victories in a row, while San Diego carries a four-game winning streak. These two team have won 6s of their last 7s, what's that imply? Those 14 games were ALL played at home. Even teams fade from playoff contention, they still fight hard in front of fans. Two sides are known for their stadiums, Coors Field is the most hitter-friendly, and Petco Park is at the opposite ends of the spectrum, so home field advantage plays a big role in this rivalry, as the hosts have won 8 straight meetings.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics

The Angels have wrapped-up the AL West and now have the luxury of resting some players with the expanded rosters. No rest for the A's though, who are fighting for one of the two wild card spots. Right now Oakland and Kansas City are tied for the top spots in the Wild Card race, but Seattle is just 1 1/2 games back and Cleveland 3 1/2 games back. So tonight's contest is big for Oakland. The Angels will send CJ Wilson to the hill with a 13-9 record and 4.42 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Wilson has been one of the recipients of the Angels red-hot play since the All Star break. The Angels have won Wilson's last three starts and six of his last eight. One issue of concern though are walks. Wilson has allowed at least three walks in six of his last seven outings - hence the higher than normal WHIP. The A's will send Jeff Samardzija to the hill. Even though Samardzija is just 6-12 this year, he has an outstanding ERA of 2.98 and equally impressive WHIP of 1.07. What Samardzija needs is some run support. Samardzija has allowed zero earned runs over his last 15 innings and the A's have lost both of those starts, getting just two runs of support in the process. In fact, Samardzija has seen the A's go just 1-6 in his last seven starts. A few good trends line up here for the A's. First, the Angels are 0-5 in Wilson's last five starts when installed as the underdog and 2-9 in Wilson's last 11 overall away starts. The Angels also haven't done well when visiting the bay area, going just 1-5 in their last six games up north. Much bigger stakes here for the A's who will finally get some runs for their beleaguered starter.

Stephen Nover

Chicago Cubs +157

The Cubs have become a worthy opponent thanks to their hungry and highly promising youngsters, who have invaded their roster now. Chicago is 32-27 in its last 59 home games and like most seasons have played their long-time rivals, the Cardinals, tough at Wrigley Field splitting the first six games of the season.

The pitching matchup highly favors the Cardinals with Adam Wainwright facing southpaw Travis Wood. However, there are circumstances that make the Cubs a very live 'dog here.

The Cardinal had to play last night instead of during the day. They clinched at least a wild-card spot yesterday despite losing 7-2 to the Reds. A big factor in the Cardinals' home loss to the Reds Sunday night was because of a virus that affected nearly half the team. Leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter and first baseman Matt Adams, who leads the team in batting, were so sick they couldn't even pinch-hit.

St. Louis' starting lineup contained reserves Daniel Descalso, Xavier Scruggs and Randall Grichuk. The Cardinals' bullpen was hit hard, too, by sickness with closer Trevor Rosenthal and setup man Seth Maness ill.

This is what Cardinals manager Mike Matheny was quoted as saying following the game, "Trying to use the pieces that we have. Try and get us through. We had a lot of guys unavailable. Almost as many unavailable as available. We had quite a few that just weren't an option. Just something that we're going to have to wade through."

Wainwright appears back on track after a 5.17 ERA in six August starts. He's won four straight starts with a 1.69 ERA. But his bullpen is depleted by sickness and he has a 4.25 lifetime ERA versus the Cubs.

Wood has had a disappointing season, but was sharp in his last start limiting the Reds to three hits in six scoreless innings. The Cardinals also are 20-17 against lefties compared to 67-52 versus right-handers.

Stephen Nover's Featured Package

Nick Parsons

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -182

The St. Louis Cardinals are trying to secure the National League Central Division title by sending nineteen game winner Adam Wainwright to the mound against the Chicago Cubs. The Cardinals have a two and a half game lead over Pittsburgh with six games to go. The Cardinals, who have at least clinched a wild-card spot, has won seven of nine games.

Wainwright is 19 and 9 with a 2.45 ERA on the season. Wainwright has won four straight starts while compiling a 1.69 ERA with two complete games. Against Chicago, he has gone 4-1 with a 3.13 ERA in his past six starts.

The Cubs, trailing St. Louis is 9-7 in the season series, will be sending Travis Wood to the mound. Wood is 8-12 on the season, recording a 4.86 ERA. He has been on a bad streak at home going he's 0-4 with a 5.43 ERA over his last 10 home starts. In his last outing he went six scoreless giving up three hits but not figuring in the decision. Wood is 2-2 with a 4.99 ERA in seven starts against the Cardinals at Wrigley.

I am playing on Adam Wainwright as much as I am playing against Travis Wood. I see Wainwright getting his twentieth win of the season and the Cardinals knocking Wood out of the game early. The Cardinals move a step closer to the division title and the Cubs take a step closer to the beach.

Jesse Schule

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -108

The Yankees are coming off a 3-1 series victory at home over the Blue Jays, and they'll host the A.L East champion Orioles in the Bronx tonight. Baltimore is coming off a home series versus Boston, where it lost 2-of-3. The Orioles have been resting players as they get geared up for the post-season, and I don't expect them to be too excited about battling it out with the Yankees in the Bronx.

Michael Pineda will toe the slab for New York, and he's had a successful return from the DL. Pineda (3-5, 2.15 ERA) allowed a pair of runs (one earned) on four hits over 5 1/3 innings in a loss at Tampa Bay his last time out. He owns an impressive home record of 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA in five starts. He's faced Baltimore once previously this season, allowing one run on two hits over five innings in that game.

The Orioles hand the ball to Wei Yin Chen, who has been having a career year. Chen (16-4, 3.58 ERA) surrendered a pair of runs on nine hits over 5 2/3 innings in a win at Toronto his last time out. He hasn't had much success against the Yankees in his career though, and he was rocked for four runs on nine hits over five innings in his only trip to the Bronx this year. Going back the last three seasons, he's 0-2 with a 4.86 ERA in three visits to New York.

Brett Gardner is hitting .417 with a home run and five RBIs lifetime versus Chen.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Will Rogers

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -145

It's been a trying season for the Texas Rangers, but they've been playing well lately, winning eight of their last nine overall. They host the Astros in Game 1 of a new series tonight, and with a superior pitcher on the mound, I like their chances of extending that run.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Derek Holland will make his fifth start of the season for the Rangers, and he's been very sharp so far. The former Texas ace is 1-0 with a 0.99 ERA, and Texas has won three of his four starts. The Astros will hand the ball to rookie Nick Tropeano, who is coming off a loss at home to Cleveland in his latest start. The Ballpark in Arlington is not known to be kind to pitchers, and that may not bode well for the rookie.

2. Holland vs. Astros - The left-hander was 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA in three starts versus Houston last season.

3. X-Factor - Adrian Beltre is having himself another fine season, hitting .325 with 18 home runs and 75 RBIs. He's been at his best in Texas, batting .361 at home this season.

Ben Burns

Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Play: Baltimore Orioles +104

The Orioles may be done playing home games for the remainder of the regular season, but that doesn't mean they aren't a great value tonight on the money line against the Yankees. Baltimore is still competing for home field advantage in the playoffs and has a good chance at making up ground with the league leading Angels playing at Oakland this week.

The Yankees will be emotional this week as Derek Jeter plays his final home series. But this is a team that's been lucky to stay over .500 as they have been outscored now by 31 runs this season.

Wei-Yin Chen has been outstanding recently with a 1.45 ERA and 1.071 WHIP his last three starts. All three came against teams from within the division. You would have to go all the way back to April to find the lone time Chen has faced New York this season, but the result was a 14-5 Baltimore win. Chen has won 9 of his last 10 decisions.

The Orioles are 11-4 vs. the Yankees this season. They've won four of six here in Yankees Stadium.

New York has a suspect offense and starter Michael Pineda knows that well. They've scored more than one run for him in just one of his last four starts. Over the last seven games, the Yanks have averaged 2.4 runs and hit .218.

Ben Burns's Featured Package

Ray Monohan

Bears vs. Jets
Play: Over 44

The Jets are likely to run all over the Bears while the Jets will have a great deal of trouble slowing down Chicago’s passing attack. Put those two together and I think this game will zoom over the total, likely before the end of the thirds quarter. This one opened at 45.5 too so there is probably some really good value here. Taking the over on the Monday nighter is popular though so don’t wait until the last minute on this one.

Art Aronson

Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres -122

The Padres have been very good at home lately and I think they ultimately earn a victory in this matchup with the Rockies. Colorado sends Tyler Matzek (6-10, 4.19 ERA) to the hill, who would surrender 11 hits but managed to hold the Dodgers to two runs over 5 1/3 innings in a win in his last outing. Note though that the lefty is 1-2 with a 4.29 ERA lifetime against the Padres and is just 2-6 with a pedestrian 4.70 ERA on the road this season. San Diego counters with left-hander Eric Stults (7-17, 4.59 ERA) who is 3-2 with a 3.97 ERA in 68 innings pitched versus the Rockies lifetime; note that the Friars are 8-3 in games started by Stults against the Rockies. Both these teams come in hot but I think the Padres have the advantage; yes the Rockies have been hot in winning six in a row at home but remember, they lost six straight away from friendly confines before the skein. San Diego has won six of seven so far on this home stand after a three game sweep of the San Francisco Giants and is a strong 46-32 at Petco Park this season (it doesn’t come as any surprise to learn that the Rockies are one of the worst road teams in all of baseball with a 20-55). Additionally, the Padres are 5-2 when hosting the Rockies the last three seasons. I think the home side is worth the price of admission in this spot.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

DAVE COKIN

PITTSBURGH PIRATES AT ATLANTA BRAVES
PLAY: PITTSBURGH PIRATES -142

Regular readers of this blog are already aware I rarely get involved with big chalk in baseball. I’m big on obtaining value and there’s generally none to be had playing large favorites. But this is the final week of the regular season, and what works for the first 155 or so games of the schedule can pretty much be tossed out as far as the final seven or so are concerned.

This game is a good example. Turn back the clock just a week or two, and there’s no chance I’d even consider the Bucs at this price, especially on the road. But on Monday, September 22, the Pirates are now the only side I can consider tonight.

This is simply on the teams and their current situations and form. Pittsburgh is in great shape to at least make it to the one-game playoff, probably against the Giants. The Braves are toast. They’ve hit the skids in a huge way, and following next Sunday, it’s vacation time for that team.

One can make a case that the mental vacation is already underway for the Braves. They’re looking as though the season has already concluded, and in fact, I would probably argue that under the present conditions, they actually now have what amounts to a home field disadvantage.

The Pirates could, I suppose, let down just a bit after virtually assuring themselves of at least a game #163. But I see this as a team with major momentum right now, and I don’t envision them suddenly going into relax mode. I think they want to stay hot and hopefully carry the surge right into October.

Liriano vs. Harang is pretty close on paper. The Pirates lefty has been very good lately, although he’s always capable of losing the strike zone and getting hit. No knocks here on Harang, who has had a much better than could have been expected season for Atlanta, and he’s still pitching good ball right now.

But this is all about the way these teams are playing now and what’s at stake for the two clubs. That’s all Pirates, which makes the price on this game justifiable if not ideal. I’ll side with the scorching hot Pirates to knock down another win tonight.

Larry Ness

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

The New York Yankees' playoff hopes have all but faded, as Derek Jeter begins the final home series of his illustrious career as the New York Yankees look to keep alive their slim wild-card hopes in the first of four games against the Baltimore Orioles on Monday. they're still showing some fight. The 80-75 Yankees have won four of five after beating Toronto 5-2 on Sunday but they are 4 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot and will need to pass THREE teams to earn one. The Orioles (93-62) had won four straight and 10 of 11 before dropping two of three to Boston over the weekend. They are 2 1/2 games back of the Angels for the AL’s best overall record and will need help from LA (meaning an Angel slump) this final week to catch them.

Baltimore sends Wei-Yin Chen (16-4, 3.58 ERA) to the mound, who is both 8-2 on the road and at home in 2014. He is coming off his FOURTH consecutive victory and NINTH in 10 decisions. The left-hander has posted a 1.45 ERA in his last three appearances and is looking to become the Orioles' first 17-game winner since Mike Mussina went 18-7 in 1999. New York's Michael Pineda is his mound opponent and he’s 0-3 despite a 2.45 ERA over his last four starts, a stretch in which he's received ONE total run of support. Pineda (3-5, 2.15 ERA) hasn't recorded a decision in three career outings against the Orioles while compiling a 2.50 ERA but his teams are 0-3.

Chen has been superb this year for the Orioles, while Pineda continues to pitch in “hard luck.” The Orioles are EASILY the best moneyline team in MLB this season at plus-$3,499, as the Angels own the second-best mark at plus-$2,228. A good part of Baltimore’s winnings have come on the road, where their plus-$2,065 mark is also a MLB-best. No win here for Jeter and the Yanks!