MLB Predictions
St. Louis Cardinals -167
The Cardinals got pounded last night at the hands of the Reds, which handed us a loss on the UNDER, but look to get back on track with Adam Wainwright taking the mound. Wainwright has been one of the best pitchers in the majors this season, and also a force pitching on the road. Wainwright has an overall ERA of 2.45, but it gets even better away from home. His ERA falls all the way to 1.82 and boasts a 0.99 WHIP and .260 OBP. We are also getting one of, if not the hottest pitcher at the moment. He has been stellar, giving up only 2 runs in his past three games. Wainwright's ERA stands at 0.69 with a 0.88 WHIP and .240 OBP in those games, including a 9 inning shutout in his last outing against the Brewers. In his last start in Chicago at Wrigley, Wainwright allowed no runs in 7 innings back in July. If Wainwright is one of the hottest pitchers, Wood is one of the coldest. He holds a 6.57 ERA his last three, but it doesn't tell the whole story, as his WHIP is 1.95 and .414 OBP in those starts. Wood has an ERA of 4.27 at Wrigley this season and 1.38 WHIP, so he has had some issues. Lets get back on track by backing Wainwright to get the week started off with.
Jeff Clement
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: San Francisco Giants +100
The Giants are 8-2 last 10 meetings with the Dodgers and the Dodgers are 4-9 last 13 games as a favorite. Peavy has pitched outstanding since joining the Giants and is 14-3 with an ERA of 3.28 in his career against the Dodgers.The Giants may not win the Division but are still looking good for a Wild Card spot. San Francisco is a 8 Unit Play!
Steve Janus
Kansas City Royals +106
The Royals should not be an underdog to the Indians in this one. Cleveland has won 5 of 6 overall, but that's come against the likes of the Astros and Twins. Kansas City desperately needs a win here to maintain their 1.5-game lead over the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot. While there's no question the Royals are going to come out motivated, I think this is a tough spot for the Indians, who just finished up a 10-game road trip and haven't had a day off since 9/10.
Kansas City will send out Danny Duffy, who has a 2.39 ERA and 1.020 WHIP over 12 road starts and an even better 1.32 ERA and 0.828 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The Indians' Carlos Carrasco has been equally impressive of late with a 1.50 ERA and 0.667 WHIP over his last 3 starts, but he's got a 5.24 ERA and 1.399 WHIP over 6 career starts against the Royals.
Key Trends - Kansas City is 6-0 in Duffy's last 6 starts during game 1 of a series and 4-0 in his last 4 vs the AL Central. Cleveland is 5-11 in their last 16 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 0-8 in Carrasco's last 8 starts during game 1 of a series, 1-8 in his last 9 following a quality start and 4-10 in his last 14 vs the AL Central.
System - Home teams with a money line of +125 to -125 after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than 1 home run and are starting a pitcher that has an ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are just 19-39 (33%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
Oakland A's -139
The A's were finally able to show some life at the plate in Sunday's 8-6 win over the Phillies. It was the first time in nearly 2 weeks that Oakland scored more than 4 runs in a game. They now have a 2-game cushion in the AL Wild Card race and I look for them to carry over that momentum at home against division rival LA tonight.
Oakland has won 5 of 6 games at home against the Angels this season and are sending one of their top starters to the mound in Jeff Samardzija, who has a 1.50 ERA over his last 4 starts. Samardzija was brilliant in his only start against LA this season, holding the Angels to just 1 earned run on 4 hits with 9 strikeouts over 8 innings.
As long as the A's offense can provide a few runs here, you have to like Oakland's chances of winning this game. Hard to not like the offense to do just that, as the Angels' C.J. Wilson is 4-7 with an ugly 5.18 ERA and 1.580 WHIP over 14 road starts this season. Wilson also has a 5.10 ERA in night games and a 5.17 ERA versus division opponents.
The Angels are just 3-18 in their last 21 road games when listed as an underdog of +125 to +150, while Oakland is 18-5 in their last 23 as a home favorite of -125 to -150. We also see that the A's are a perfect 10-0 when revenging a same season 3-game sweep against an opponent.
William Holloway
Cardinals -165
The Cards have won seven of nine and send their ace to the mound, as they try to get him 20 wins on the season. Wainwright has won four straight starts with a 1.69 ERA , and is 4-1 in his last 5 against the Cubs. The Cubs send Travis Wood to the mound, who is 0-4 with a 5.43 ERA over his last 10.
Marc Lawrence
Bears at Jets
Pick: Jets
Edges - Jets: Ryan 9-1 SUATS as a favorite versus an opponent off a SU underdog win; and 6-1 ATS in 2nd home games of the season; and Ryan 5-1 SUATS home off a loss versus opponent off a SUATS win. Bears: 1-5 ATS before the Packers; and 3-16 ATS away in games with the O/U line at 45 or more points. With Chicago off a phony ‘inside-out’ win over San Francisco in which they were out-gained, 361-216, look for the Bears to fall to 1-10 ATS away in games versus triple revenge-exact opponents here tonight.
Bob Balfe
San Diego Padres -115
The Rockies have scored 9 runs on average per game over the last week, but remember this team is night and day when they are home vs. away. On the road the Rockies are just a poor baseball team with a poor bullpen. The Padres have been averaging 4½ runs per game which for them is like 9 runs a game. This team has a great bullpen and in this series it is usually the home team that takes these games when these teams play. Also the total on this is 6.5 am I missing something here or is that low for these pitchers? Seems way to good to be true.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. JETS -2 over Chicago
We’re once again going to put this week in the bank and pass on this tough call. After losing to the visiting Bills, the Bears take down the 49ers in their new stadium. Winning in San Francisco gives the Bears the record we all assumed they would have now - just exactly not how we figured they would get there. What we don’t like about the Bears is that this game is sandwiched between that improbable win last week in prime time and next week’s showdown with the Packers. One could also argue that the Bears were a play or two away from being absolutely destroyed in San Francisco. In other words, the Bears' win against San Francisco was a fraudulent one and was a byproduct of a plus-4 turnover advantage. That said, the Bears possess a wickedly good offense with so many weapons and they have not been sharp yet. That figures to change at some point, especially with Head Coach Marc Trestman being an outstanding teacher of the game.
What we don’t like about the Jets is they have the inferior QB in this game and that Rex Ryan has built his defense to stop the run, which is simply a mistake in today's NFL. The Jets found that out the hard way last week against Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson and Jay Cutler and company can easily duplicate that. The Jets have already allowed five passing touchdowns including two to Derek Carr. Better yet, all five went to wide receivers and Jordy Nelson gained 209 yards against them. As far as the money is concerned, early money came in on the Jets while the late money is coming in on the Bears, which is usually not a good sign for the late money. We don’t like the situational spot for the Bears and we really don’t like to spot points with the Jets. To us, this game is such a toss-up that we can’t commit to either side and will therefore watch baseball instead.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND -111 over Kansas City
The A’s don’t want it, the Mariners don’t want it and neither do the Royals. With a chance to pull away from the field, all three of those teams are floundering when the chips are down while the Indians are making a move. It may be a case of too little too late for Cleveland but considering its current form, we’ll gladly spot this cheap price on them against Danny Duffy. Duffy left his start on Sept. 6, after one pitch and pointed to his left shoulder. He appeared to flinch as he threw the ball. Off for 16 days and being thrown into this pressure cooker, we’re not convinced he’ll thrive. Duffy’s poor control continues to undermine his good raw stuff, and xERA (4.19) shows that walks and a high fly-ball % won't lead him to much success. More risk than reward here as the health issues pile up.
The Indians need a minor miracle to get in but at least they can prevent the Royals from making it to the postseason with a good showing here. Cleveland has won five of six and they are set up with perhaps the best starting pitching staff in the AL right now. Carlos Carrasco is among that group of elite starters but he is still rather unknown because he’s started just 12 games this year. Carrasco has been one of the game's best starting pitchers since July 1 with a 1.61 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 9.3 K’s/9, 1.4 BB/9 and a 53% groundball rate. He owns outstanding command against both LH and RH bats and he has been especially filthy against righties with 10.1 K’s/9 and a 55% groundball rate. Carrasco has been putting up Clayton Kershaw like numbers but he’s priced like Josh Tomlin. Great value on the chalk here.
San Fransico +109 over LOS ANGELES
When Jake Peavy joined the Giants, his record was 1-9 and his ERA was 4.72. He subsequently lost his first two games with the Giants to drop his overall record to 1-11. Peavy won his first start of the season with Boston back in April and would not win another game until August as a member of the Giants. Amazing. Peavy is now reunited with Giants manager Bruce Bochy, who was his manager in San Diego for the first five seasons of his career. He’s obviously not the same pitcher this time around, as only 12 active hurlers have logged more innings than he has and in the past three years he’s missed over 100 games with injuries. Encouraging is his bounce back. June-July saw incremental positives in command, batting average against, and WHIP, and his July 8.8 K’s/9 was a nick higher than his career norm. Peavy has found “it” again. He’s 4-1 over his last five starts with an ERA of 0.79 and it comes with full support. Over that span, Peavy has a BB/K split of 5/28 over 34 innings to go along with an elite 12% line-drive rate and 11% swing and miss rate. While it’s normally difficult recommending a starter with seven wins in 30 starts, Peavy’s reunion with Bochy and current form is enough to make him an exception, at least for the short term.
Dan Haren has allowed 26 jacks so far. That’s the risk you take with an extreme fly-ball pitcher laying wood. In fact, Haren has seen his groundball rate decline more than any other starter from the 1H to the 2H. As a result, his 1.5 HR/9 is unlikely to drop. Haren has been pretty sharp his last four starts (outside of a start in Colorado) but we’re not buying a pitcher that has a 6% swing and miss rate since the Al-Star break with a 45% fly-ball rate. Our trusty skill gauges are unmoved, arguing that Haren’s first half wasn't as bad as the numbers suggest and his second half is only marginally better. His last four starts remind us what he can do when healthy, though that's an elusive concept. In the end, we’re not interested in Haren’s risky skill set in big games, especially when he’s favored.
Jeff Alexander
San Francisco Giants +110
The Giants must sweep the Dodgers to have any shot of winning the West. And, they still have a little work to do to secure a playoff spot so I expect them to be focused and motivated tonight, especially since they were just swept in San Diego. Peavy is in top form, going 6-1 with a 1.13 ERA over his last 7 starts. He's 4-0 in his last 4. Peavy has owned the Dodgers. He's 14-3 with an ERA of 2.28 in 26 career starts against them. His clubs are 15-4 in his last 19 starts against the Dodgers. The Giants have had no trouble winning at Chavez Ravine, going 8-2 in the last 10 meetings there. Haren's clubs are 0-4 in his last 4 starts versus the Giants and just 6-10 all-time.
Jack Jones
San Francisco Giants +110
The San Francisco Giants (84-71) want to clinch a spot in the postseason as soon as possible. They lead Milwaukee by 4.5 games for the final wild card spot in the National League. After losing six of their last seven, I look for them to come back motivated for a win against the rival Dodgers in Game 1 of this series tonight.
Turning to Jake Peavy should solve their problems. The right-hander has been nothing short of brilliant when these games have mattered most down the stretch. Peavy is 6-1 with a 1.13 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing just six earned runs over 48 innings during this stretch.
Peavy is 14-3 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in 26 career starts against Los Angeles. He'll be opposed by Dan Haren, who is 13-11 with a 4.19 ERA in 30 starts this year. Haren allowed five earned runs over five innings in a 4-10 loss to Colorado his last time out on September 16th.
Haren is a woeful 14-23 (-22.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last three seasons. The Giants are 6-1 in Peavy's last seven starts. The Dodgers are 1-5 in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 8-2 in its last 10 meetings in Los Angeles.
Dave Price
Pittsburgh Pirates -140
Having been eliminated from playoff contention, the Braves have nothing left to play for. The Pirates appear to be in good position to reach the playoffs but still haven't clinched anything so they won't be taking their foot off the gas pedal. The Pirates have won six of seven while the Braves have dropped eight of nine. Atlanta's bats have gone into hibernation, and they'll have their work cut out for themselves against Liriano, who has posted a 0.82 ERA over his last five starts while holing opponents to a .170 average. The Braves can't be trusted with Harang on the hill. They are 2-10 in his last 12 starts, including 0-6 in his last six at home. His 1.416 WHIP is especially a concern since the Pirates are 9-0 in their last nine games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.300.
Rocketman
Chicago vs. NY Jets
Play: NY Jets -2.5
The Chicago Bears travel to New York to take on the Jets on Monday night. Both teams come in with identical 1-1 records on the season. Chicago is averaging just 66 yards per game on the ground this year while the Jets Defense are allowing only 52.5 yards per game rushing this season. Jets are allowing only 274 total yards per game thsi year. Chicago is 4-13 ATS last 3 years in games where the line is +3 to -3. Jets defense is allowing only 14 points per game at home this year. Chicago is 1-7 ATS last 8 games after an ATS win. Chicago is 0-4 ATS last 4 games on artificial turf. Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS last 5 meetings in this series. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Jets tonight!
Michael Alexander
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -140
Texas took two of three from the Los Angeles Angels this weekend, including a 2-1 victory on Sunday behind Ryan Rua's first career homer. Holland has been outstanding since returning from his injury, allowing no more than one run in any of his four starts. He limited Oakland to one run and four hits in 6 1/3 innings Tuesday and has not allowed a home run this season. Holland made six career starts against Houston, posting a 2-1 record with a 3.69 ERA.
Jimmy Adams
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -161
After taking 2 of 3 from the Royals over the weekend, Detroit now sits 1 ½ games ahead in the AL Central. They’re swing the sticks very well right now, winning 9 of 13 while averaging 5.2 rpg. Returning home will also play as a huge advantage tonight. The Tigers can smell a division title and the home crowd will be amped up. That encouragement will help Rookie Kyle Lobstein, who is a solid pitcher but doesn’t have much experience. Lobstein will be focused on keeping his pitches down in the zone, a point of emphasis that he’s been working on with the coaching staff.
The White Sox are ready to go on vacation. They’ve won just 4 of 15 games on the road, and will also be turning to a Rookie pitcher this evening. Chris Bassett has an ERA over 5, and struggles greatly with his command. He threw nearly 100 pitches in less than 4 innings last time out against the Royals. He’s also at a disadvantage given the hostel environment he must throw in tonight. The way the Tigers are hitting, he doesn’t stand a chance.