Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday September, 24

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Kansas City vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit -1.5
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The Royals' (70-82) Luke Hochevar (8-14, 5.40 ERA) is set to square off against the Tigers' (80-72) Justin Verlander (15-8, 2.74 ERA) on the mound this evening.
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Hochevar gave up three runs off seven hits over seven frames in a 3-2 loss to the White Sox on Tuesday; he finished with four strikeouts. All three runs were scored on solo dingers. He's now given up 29 long-balls on the year, which is the most in his career. He's a brutal 1-5 with a deplorable 6.33 ERA over his last eight starts. Note that Hochevar has been particularly ineffective on the road this year, going 6-7 with a 5.06 ERA.
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Verlander went six scoreless frames vs. the A's on Wednesday, and his team would go on to win 6-2; he scattered five hits with three walks while striking out five. The right-hander has now won back to back games, and has won three of his last four overall. Note that he's been particularly tough at home this year, going 8-2 with a minuscule 1.60 ERA.
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The Tigers sit just one game back of the White Sox with 10 games left to go in the regular season. Detroit lost both games of its doubleheader to the Twins yesterday, making tonight's game even more important:
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"It's not disappointing," Tigers' manager Jim Leyland said yesterday. "We're one game back with 10 games to play."
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You'll want to keep your eyes on Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera who is hitting .377 with seven home runs and 17 RBIs during a 13 game hitting streak.
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The Royals are ripe for another letdown tonight as well after their four-game win streak came to an abrupt halt in yesterday's 15-4 setback to Cleveland.
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For this selection though, I'll concentrate solely on the starting pitchers.
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To put it simply, Verlander has OWNED the Royals throughout his career, going 14-2 with a 2.76 ERA in 22 career meetings.
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Detroit has the superior starter on the mound, and many external motivating factors working in its favor.
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I'm expecting a lopsided blowout; lay the extra 1.5 runs for the near "pick-em" price!

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee vs. Washington
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The Brewers continue their push to a N.L. Wild Card as they wrap up a 4-game series with Washington on Monday afternoon. Jordan Zimmermann goes for the Nationals. He is 11-8 with a 2.96 ERA in 30 starts. The righty has allowed just 5 runs in his last 18 innings of work and he’s coming off a winning effort against the Dodgers at home. Zimmermann beat the Brewers back on July 28th after giving up 1 run and five hits in six innings. The Brewers are hitting right around .252 on the road and they should struggle against the Nationals righty. The bullpen took the loss on Sunday, but it’s still one of the best units in baseball.
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Marco Estrada is one of the hottest pitchers for Milwaukee. He has allowed just 4 runs and 14 hits in his last three starts. The starter has allowed 1 earned run or less in five of his last six starts. He faced off against Washington in April last year and he gave up 1 run and five hits in six innings. The Nationals are hitting right around .254 in their last eight games and they are going thru one of their offensive lulls despite the 10 runs on Saturday. The Brewers’ bullpen is pitching better lately and they are one of the reasons why the team is still in the race. We expect a low-scoring game between the Brewers and Nationals on Monday afternoon.

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Yankees vs. Twins
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This game fits a nice totals system that has cashed 14 of 20 times and pertains to road favorites off a home favored loss vs an opponent off a road dog win that scored 2 or less in the win like the Twins. The Yankees have Petitte going and he has stayed under in his last 3 vs Minnesota. The Twins counter wit Liam Hendricks who has gone under in 4 of his last 5 home starts. Minnesota has played under in 10 of the last 14 vs Lefty and the Yankees the last 4 games vs A.L. Central teams resulted in an under. Look for this game to follow suit.

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Pirates are not going to make the playoffs, but that elusive winning season is still a possibility. Good shot for the Bucs to grab one tonight. The Mets are off a weekend sweep, but I favor McPherson over Mejia and I'm leaning Pittsburgh's way tonight.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers
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Milwaukee made a nice late run at one of the NL Wild Cards, thanks in large part to the best record in baseball since August 20. The Brewers won again on Sunday over the Nationals, 6-2. That makes seven wins in their last eight games and 10 of their last 12. The Nationals have clinched their playoff spot, so look for some players to get some extra rest down these final regular season games. Marco Estrada is 4-6 this season, but has a good ERA of 3.56 and WHIP of 1.132. He's also 2-1 over his last three starts with a 1.93 ERA. Jordan Zimmermann is also having a good year with a 11-8 record, 2.96 ERA and 1.172 WHIP. The Brewers are 15-5 for the bettors in September and I like them again here on Monday to keep their hot streak going.

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SEATTLE +3½ -105 over Green Bay
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The Packers still have not rekindled the magic of 2011 when they would score by accident and now they take to the road for the first time this season. The Pack have been held under 24 points in both games so far while the Seahawks’ defense held Dallas to a mere seven points in Seattle’s home opener. Green Bay’s most recent game vs. Bears was an improvement on their first, but issues remain.
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This is as tough a stadium to play in as any in the NFL. Seattle’s two strong defensive games this year is not an aberration. This is a fast, skilled and disciplined stop unit that will watch film on the Pack and will follow others in focusing on Green Bay’s passing game, as the Packers’ running game is non-existent.
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Despite allowing 30 points to the 49ers in opening week, Green Bay’s defense is also tough. They made the Bears offense look silly the following week and will now face a Seahawk offense that will feature a heavy dose of Marshall Lynch right, Marshall Lynch left and Marshall Lynch up the middle. It could work to slow this game right down, a style the Packers usually don’t thrive in. Spotting small road points in the NFL is risky. Laying them with a Monday Night road fave is a low percentage play that will damage your bankroll over time. The Seahawks fit as nicely as any in this role.
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Pittsburgh +101 over N.Y. METS
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This is a matchup between two teams limping to the finish, with New York sporting a 6-13 record against the Pirates 4-16 record. The Pirates have now fallen behind Milwaukee, Arizona, Philadelphia and the Dodgers in the Wild Card race. After losing five of their past six, including two of three in Houston this past weekend, the Pirates are finished.
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For our purposes, that’s good news because the Bucs will now play with no pressure on them and they’ll face a fill-in Mets starter in Jenrry Mejia. Mejia has a 1/5 -K/BB and 7.82 xERA through six innings so far. His minor league profile shows a pitcher that has trouble finding the strike zone and that has carried over to a small sample size here. This time of year, pitchers that have been in the minors all season get evaluated at this level. Everything in his minor league numbers, except his misleading 2.75 ERA, suggests this is a long relief guy at best.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kyle McPherson has done nothing but impress at three different levels this season. McPherson posted 63 K’s with just 9 BB over 67 innings between Double-A Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis. He has since maintained similar ratios over his first 12 big-league innings (11/2 K/BB). He also has an elite 11% line-drive rate and a solid groundball profile. Everything about McPherson says he’s “major-league ready”.

Matt FargoFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona vs. Colorado
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Arizona's playoff chances are dwindling as time is running out but it certainly has not given up yet. The Diamondbacks have won three straight games and they are currently four and a half games back in the Wild Card standings with 10 games left. They will have to leapfrog three teams so while it will be extremely difficult, not being mathematically eliminated yet is on our side. Arizona is now a game over .500 on the road and the Diamondbacks are 11-1 in their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Trevor Cahill takes the mound for Arizona in search of his fourth straight victory. He has tossed three straight quality outings, allowing two runs each time out while posting a 2.79 ERA over that stretch. He has done his best work on the road this season as he has a 2.91 ERA in 15 starts on the highway compared to a 4.96 ERA in 15 starts at home. He has been awesome at night, posting a 3.37 ERA with Arizona winning 12 of his 19 starts under the lights and the Diamondbacks are 4-0 in his last four starts as a favorite between -110 and -150. Colorado has lost a season-high nine straight games and the pitching has had a lot to do with it. The Rockies have allowed six runs or more in seven of those games and they are yielding an average of 8.1 rpg during the losing streak. The pitching has been horrible all season as Colorado has a 5.30 ERA which is by far the worst in baseball while its 6.13 home ERA is the worst at home as well. The Rockies are 3-13 in their last 16 games following a loss and hope to turn that around with Tyler Chatwood taking the hill. The problem is that he has been one of the culprits to the poor pitching. He has a 5.73 ERA on the season and since entering the rotation, his ERA has come down but it is still a hefty 5.14 through 10 starts. He has only one quality start overall as he has made it past five innings only once. That is bad news for a bullpen with a 4.57 ERA.

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Mets -105
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The Mets are showing value at home at this price against a struggling Pittsburgh club that has dropped 17 of 22.
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The Mets enter with some momentum following a 3-game sweep of Miami. Plus, they haven't had much trouble against the Pirates. The Mets have won 13 of the last 19 meetings overall and 19 of the last 26 at home.
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The Pirates are 3-13 in their last 16 road games and even 1-6 in their last 7 road games versus a team with a losing home record. The Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 home games versus a team with a losing record. Bet the Mets.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Yankees -168
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The New York Yankees have won seven of their last eight games overall to hold a slim one-game lead on the Baltimore Orioles atop the AL East division. Not only are they trying to fend off Baltimore, they're hoping to catch Texas for home-field advantage in the American League.
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Give Minnesota credit for sweeping Detroit in a double-header yesterday, but the Twins are still just 64-89 on the season. Plus, after playing that double-header, their bullpen is certainly taxed right now. I look for the Yankees to jump on Liam Hendricks and this Twins' staff tonight.
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Hendricks is 1-7 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.611 WHIP in 14 starts this season. He's no match for Andy Pettite, who is 4-3 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.100 WHIP In 10 starts this year. The left-hander is 14-4 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.251 WHIP in 22 career starts against Minnesota.
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The Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. New York is 43-15 in Pettitte's last 58 starts as a favorite. The Twins are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Minnesota is 1-8 in Hendriks' last 9 home starts. New York is 39-13 in its last 52 meetings with the Twins. Bet the Yankees Monday.

Jeff Scott SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3 UNIT PLAYFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Green Bay/ Seattle Under 44.5: Although I won a huge play on the Over in last night's Pats/ Ravens game, I am primarily an Under player in football, so I am back in my comfort zone tonight. The Packers have problems along their OL and as a result Rodgers has been sacked 8 times thus far and their running game is not up to par as well. Not good news when about to face a Seahawk defense that that has a very solid DL (allowing just 46 ypg on the ground) and a very athletic defensive backfield. Let's also note that Seattle has allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games on this field, allowing just 15.5 ppg over that stretch. The Packers spent a lot of effort in the off season to uprade their defense and it has paid off pretty good so far as they 5th in total defense and second vs the pass and they lead the league in sacks with 11. The Pack can be run on and Seattle is a running team, which fits nicely here as that will eat clock. Seattle will not want to expose their rookie to the pressure of the Packs pass rush and that means running teh ball with Lynch, a lot. For Green Bay, they found their running game a bit last week and will get James Starks back this week, to go along with Cedric Benson (81 yards last week) and I look for them to try an establish the run as well. Green Bay stated that that they had problems in the opener vs San Fran cause they abandoned the running game too early. Last week they stuck with it and had much better results. Look for both defenses to step up big vs a couple of teams that should play some ball control offense as this game hits at most 38 points.

Frank JordanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Packers vs. Seahawks
Play: Over 44FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Packer offense is only scoring 22.5 points per game scoring in the low 20's in their first two games. Seattle is doing the same thing with just 21.5 points per game. That total is exactly 44 which the number is, but they don't play the games on paper and Monday Night brings out the best of super star players so look for Rodgers to put the points up and push that number over the total. Play the Over

Sixth Sense

Green Bay –3 SEATTLE 45

The Packers dominated Chicago last Thursday averaging 5.7yps to just 2.2yps for the Bears, including sacking Chicago seven times. GB was sacked five times themselves as well. Cutler threw four interceptions as well. GB out gained Chicago 4.9yppl to 2.9yppl. The Ravens offense has been good this year gaining 5.3ypr against 5.2ypr, 6.6yps against 6.1yps and 6.1yppl against 5.8yppl. They allow just 3.7ypr against 3.9ypr but 7.3yps against 6.8yps and 5.6yppl against 5.6yppl.

Seattle rushed for 182 yards at 4.4ypr and limited Dallas to 3.1ypr. Both teams threw for 6.0yps and Dallas out gained Seattle 5.2yppl to 5.0yppl but Dallas also threw the ball 19 more times while Seattle ran the ball 25 more times. Seattle recovered the opening kick off and drove 26 yards for a field goal and then blocked a Dallas punt they took in for a touchdown to get them off to a quick 10-0 lead.

GB averages 3.6ypr against 3.6ypr and 5.8yps against 6.0yps. Overall, they average 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. The pass defense has been good, allowing just 4.1yps against 5.8yps but the rush defense is allowing 5.1ypr against 4.7ypr. Overall, they allow 4.6yppl against 5.3yppl. Seattle has struggled on offense, averaging just 4.6yps against 5.3yps and 4.0ypr against 3.9ypr. Overall, they average 4.3yppl against 4.6yppl. But, the defense has been good, allowing just 2.6ypr against 3.6ypr, 5.9yps against 6.5yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl.
GB qualifies in a game three situation, which is 45-16-3 after winning with the Giants on Thursday but Seattle qualifies in numerous fundamental rushing situations, which are 553-401-24, 73-28-4, 508-325-23 and 309-210-26. Numbers favor Seattle by 2.5 points and predict about 41 points. Against good defenses last year on the road, GB scored 27, 25 and 14 points. The 14 point output was at Kansas City without Greg Jennings. This number is higher than the key 43, 44 and at 45 for betting totals and I just can’t see both teams getting into the 20’s, especially knowing Seattle will want to control the clock the best they can with their run game. GREEN BAY 20 SEATTLE 17

MLB Predictions

St Louis Cardinals -1.5 -120

After taking the Cardinals on the run line yesterday afternoon we hop right back on St Louis by 2+. The Cardinals have won 6 of their last 7 games, and have scored 34 runs over those 6 games (5.67 runs per game). The Astros managed to take their weekend series vs Pittsburgh, although they lost 8-1 yesterday afternoon. The Astros have scored just 17 runs losing 4 of their last 6 games (2.83 runs per game). Lance Lynn will start for the Cardinals, making it his third straight start since coming out of the bullpen. In his previous two starts he went a combined 12.1 innings giving up just 8 hits and 1 earned run. On the year he is 16-7 with a 3.79 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .255 opponents batting average. His last start was actually against the Astros on the 19th and he went 6.1 shutout innings giving up just 3 hits. Fernando Abad will be on the rubber for Houston as he looks for his first win of the season. He is 0-5 with a 5.11 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and .322 opponents batting average. His last time out was against St Louis on the 18th and he went 5 innings giving up 6 hits and 3 earned runs. St Louis and Houston have played each other 12 times this year with the Cardinals going 9-3. Of those 9 wins 7 were by 2+ runs. The Cardinals have also won 8 straight against Houston. Take note that the Cardinals are 20-7 in their last 27 vs a team with a winning % below .400, 5-2 in Lynn's last 7 road starts, and 20-8 in his last 28 starts overall. The Astros are an awful 18-60 in their last 78 overall, 17-35 in their last 52 games as a home underdog, 11-42 in their last 53 games as a big underdog of +151 to +200, and 0-5 in Abad's last 5 starts. St Louis is hot right now as they look to lock up a playoff spot, and I think they win by a few runs tonight. I like the value on the run line for the second straight day.

Wunderdog

Green Bay at Seattle
Pick: Seattle +3.5

Here we are in the closeout game of week three, and we continue to see perception in the gambling world based on last year. If we pay attention, we see every year that what happened in previous seasons is often far from this season's reality. But it takes people a while to adjust. Just ask fans in New England, Pittsburgh, Denver, Detroit and New Orleans. All those teams were in the playoffs last year and have losing records through three weeks. Green Bay went 15-1 a year ago. I wrote about this team last season when they were 12-0. I wrote that they were good, but not THAT good. They went on to lose to Kansas City later in the year and bowed out of the playoffs early. Yet, the perception lingers that this is a team that should be favored in nearly any and all situations. Even after the Packers lost in game one of this year, most people gave them a pass. They played the Niners after all. A week two win over Chicago solidified for most that the Packers remain an elite team. Last season a lot of Green Bay's success came from a ridiculous number of opponent turnovers (and that again is what happened last week vs. Chicago with Jay Cutler throwing four interceptions). Don't get me wrong. This is a very good team, especially on offense. Last year the Packers offense was virtually unstoppable and it is still potent, but things aren't coming as easily for them so far this season. And, the defense remains a big question mark. Seattle took what looked like a bad loss in the season opener at Arizona 20-16. That loss doesn't look the same now that Arizona is 3-0, with has a combined score of 47-24 in their two wins vs. New England and Philadelphia. Seattle proved that last week by beating Dallas here 27-7. In that game, the Cowboys ran for only 49 yards and outside of one long drive in the second quarter, the Cowboys could not move the ball on the Seahawks. Russell Wilson has been effective as the new style dual-threat NFL quarterback, rushing 12 times for 48 yards. A healthy Marshawn Lynch has 208 yards on the ground in two games. The Packers defense seems better than last year but they are the second worst at stopping the run, allowing 5.09 yards per carry. Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 13-5 ATS at home. The public is all over the Packers here at nearly eight out of every ten bets but I recommend going the other way. Take the underdog here in a winnable game.