Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, September 26,2011

James Patrick Sports

Indians vs. Tigers

The Motor City Kitty's Fister's start allows him to start Game 2 of the AL Division Series on his normal rest, as Jim Leyland revealed Thursday. He's (7-1) with a (2.02) ERA in (10) games as a Tiger, making him Detroit's best starter not named Verlander. The Tribe's Jimenez is (3-2) with a (3.20) ERA over his past six starts after allowing four runs in seven innings in an (8-4) loss to the White Sox on Wednesday. The Indians are (6-20) in the last (26) meetings in Detroit and win-less at ( 0-7) in the last (7) meetings. The Tigers are (6-0) in Fisters last (6) starts and (4-0) in Fisters last (4) home starts. Big Game James Patrick's Monday Major League Baseball complimentary selection is Detroit Tigers.

Jim Feist

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets

The long season winds down to the final series of the season and the Reds are looking forward to the end. The Reds are 10-13 in September and have lost six of their last nine games and will finish with a losing record. The Mets meanwhile have had a injury filled season, though they are finishing strong. They had their three game winning streak snapped on Sunday against Philadelphia, 9-4. Homer Bailey will take the ball for the final time in 2011 and will look to crack double digits in wins. Chris Schwinden makes his fourth major league start on Monday. Schwinden went a career-high six innings last Wednesday against St Louis, allowing three runs ans six hits. These final days are tough to pick teams with no motivation, but the Reds look tired and ready to call it a season. I'm taking the Mets here on Monday.

Vegas Experts

Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are looking to finish with a better record than Texas and thus avoid the Yankees in the ALDS (and host the Wild Card). Their chances of sweeping visiting Cleveland to end the season are high as they've taken 20 of 24 games here at home vs. the Indians, including five of six this season. Starter Doug Fister is a perfect 3-0 his last three starts with a 0.78 ERA. In fact, looking back further he has a 6-0 TSR L6, allowing 1 ER or less in all of them. Ubaldo Jimenez has largely been a disappointment for the Tribe since coming over from Colorado.

Play on: Detroit

BIG AL

Pirates @ Brewers
PICK: Over 7.5

The Brewers have clinched their first Division Pennant since 1982 when this team was in the American League, and although they have no chance at catching the Phillies for the top spot in the league, Milwaukee wants very much to hold on to its lead over Arizona so it can finish the season as the second-best team in the N.L. Doing so would ensure that the Brewers would play either the D-Backs or Braves in the first round of the playoffs and not the Phillies. So how fortunate is it that their last three games of the season are against the team which they've pretty much owned over the past three or four years and they not only get to play the Pirates but they get them in their backyard. Lest the Brewers take anything for granted tonight, you can pretty much be certain that they will try to score early and often, and if there is any reason for them to be concerned it's the fact that Shaun Marcum is starting game one at home and Marcum has been much better on the road this season than at Miller Park (8-3; 2.21 vs. 5-4; 4.39). But giving Marcum the start tonight ensures that the Brewers can align their post-season rotation such that Marcum pitches game three of the NLDS away from Milwaukee (while the unbeatable home starter Zack Greinke pitches in Milwaukee). Six of the last nine meetings between these two teams have gone at least nine runs and all of those have gone over the total. Take the 'over.'

Bryan Power

St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals enter Monday just one game behind the Braves in the race for the NL Wild Card and are pretty fortunate to draw the 55-104 Astros to close the season. Yesterday, Houston was annihilated 19-3 by a Colorado team that had been in a severe slump previously. They are also a terrible 5-28 vs. teams with a .540 win percentage or better this season. St. Louis starter Jaime Garcia has a 4-0 TSR L4 starts w/ a 1.74 ERA L3. He has had a very good season overall w/ a 151-49 KW ratio. St. Louis has been a solid road team all season (+9 units) thanks to scoring 5.0 rpg.

EZWINNERS

Baltimore Orioles +190

Baltimore got to Boston's ace pitcher Josh Beckett in their meeting last week as Beckett gave up a season high six earned runs. The Orioles have hit Beckett well all season as his ERA against Baltimore is the highest against any American League team this season at 6.38. The Sox have struggled in September and and feeling the pressure of trying to hold off the Rays for the American League Wild Card. Boston's lead is just one game with three games left to play. The Orioles will look to play the role of the spoiler and knock the Red SOx out of the post season. Tommy Hunter takes the mound for the Orioles. Hunter exited with two outs in the seventh inning of Wednesday's 6-4 win over the Red Sox with a right groin strain but is healthy for this start. Hunter has pitched well recently and has an ERA of 3.60 in his last three starts. I expect him to have a quality start here as the O's take down the struggling Sox. The orioles are 9-4 in their last thirteen games as an underdog. Play on Baltimore.

Tom Freese

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
Play: Kansas City Royals

The Minnesota Twins won yesterday, but that doesn't change the fact that they are in an incredible free fall of late, losing 19 of their last 22 games. Things are unlikely to take a turn for the better tonight w/ starter Kevin Slowey on the hill. Slowey has been terrible since he rejoined the starting rotation last month, posting a 7.15 ERA overall and 9.00 in four home starts. He has an 0-7 TSR and including games where he came out of the bullpen, the team is 0-13 when he pitches this season! Slowey did not fare well LY vs. Kansas City in four starts w/ a 6.00 ERA and he'll be facing a Royals lineup that is averaging 6.3 rpg the last week (.335 team BA).

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs

Arizona has won four straight games to remain in the hunt for the number two seed in the National League. Getting that second position is big as it avoids the Phillies in the first round and it comes with home field advantage in the Divisional Series. Currently the Diamondbacks are one game back of the Brewers. They send Daniel Hudson to the hill and he has been pitching very well of late. He has allowed three runs or less in six straight games with five of those being quality outings. His last game missed a quality performance by an inning. He has been solid at home this season, posting a 3.04 ERA in 16 starts with 11 of those being quality outings. Arizona is 11-5 in those 16 games. Hudson has faced the Dodgers three times with all three starts resulting in quality outings. In two home starts he is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA. The Dodgers counter with Dana Eveland who started September well but has faltered since. He allowed one run over 15 innings in his first two starts but he has given up nine runs over nine innings in his last two outings. He has actually pitched better on the road than at home so leaving Los Angeles may be a good thing but that is certainly no guarantee with the nightmare that took place in Arizona. He made a start at Chase Field last season and was shelled for eight runs on eight hits in just 1.1 innings. 3* Arizona Diamondbacks

Rocketman

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Kansas City Royals

Kansas City is 15-10 this year on the road when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Minnesota is 4-13 this year at home when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Minnesota is 4-19 this year when playing in September. Minnesota is 4-15 this year when playing on Monday. Minnesota is 8-20 this year when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Kansas City bullpen has a 3.77 ERA overall this year and a 3.76 ERA on the road this season. Felipe Paulino is 1-0 with a 3.50 ERA his last 3 starts where he has 22 strikeouts compared to only 5 walks. Kevin Slowey is 0-7 with a 6.54 ERA in all games this year, 0-7 with a 7.15 ERA in all starts, 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA at home this season and 0-3 with a 9.82 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City tonight!

Ben Burns

Washington Nationals @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Florida Marlins

This the final MLB series ever at Sun Life Stadium. Next year, the Florida Marlins will become the Miami Marlins and will move to a new downtown stadium. Given Anibal Sanchez's history vs. the Nationals, the Marlins figure to have an excellent shot at starting the final series with a victory.

Not only does Sanchez have a superb 2.25 ERA (and 0.80 WHIP!) his last three starts but he's also got an impressive 100 K's in 89 1/3 home innings, walking only 21. Perhaps more importantly, Sanchez is a perfect 7-0 in 16 career starts against Washington, posting an outstanding 1.99 ERA. That includes a 2-0 mark with an awesome 0.87 ERA in this season's three starts against the Nats. In fact, he hasn't even allowed the Nats to score an earned run in 17 2/3 innings.

Rookie Tommy Milone gets the call for the visitors. He's certainly gotten off to an impressive start. That said, he's still only made four starts and he's averaging just 5.4 innings per start.

While they've been on a nice "road run" recently, the Nats are still 19-38 (-16.1) the past few seasons, when listed as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range and 30-52 (-10.8) as road underdogs in the +125 to +150 range. During the same stretch, the Marlins were a lucrative 38-23 (+6.7) as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Consider "laying the wood."

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +3 over DALLAS

We all saw what happened yesterday to Michael Vick and the Eagles. We mention that because Vick’s status all week was in question and the Eagles looked completely out of sorts as soon as the game started. The same situation applies here to Tony Romo and the Boys. Romo’s status was in question up until late yesterday when he was cleared to play. Romo will start but he’s also a hit away from being sidelined. Furthermore, Dallas has more casualties than a Quentin Tarantino movie. The Cowboys are without receiver Miles Austin and could be without receiver Dez Bryant. Running back Felix Jones will play with a shoulder that was dislocated last week, and two of Dallas’ inexperienced linemen are trying to play through knee injuries and they could be without kickoff specialist David Buehler too. Preparing for a game is tough enough. Preparing for a game when you’re not sure who is in and who is out is near impossible and in this league if you’re not fully prepared, trouble is not far behind. The Redskins are 2-0 after beating the Giants handily in week one and following that up with a narrow win over Arizona in week two. Last week’s win was an extremely flattering score to the Cards. The Skins dominated that game too. So, with a healthy team and an even healthier frame of mind, Washington is in a great position to go 3-0. The Cowboys are a dangerous team when they’re healthy, only this week they’re anything but. They’re also an erratic team that finds ways to lose games. The Redskins offense is wickedly underrated, the pass protection has been solid and all in all, this one really sets up nicely for this focused intruder to go into Dallas and beat the team they hate more than any other. Play: Washington +3 +100 (Risking 2 units).

Passing MLB

MLB PREDICTIONS

Phillies / Braves Under7

Short write up today because I've got a new home inspection to go to here in a few minutes. Cliff Lee is on the mound for the Phillies. Not much needs to be said about Lee, but he is 16-8 on the season with a 2.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .229 opponents batting average. Randall Delgado will make his 7th start tonight. He is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .214 opponents batting average. Note the UNDER is 14-4 in the Phillies last 18, 6-2 in their last 8 road games, and 13-4 in their last 17 as a favorite. The UNDER is 5-0 in Lee's last 5 road starts and 4-1 in his last 4 overall. The UNDER is also 7-1 in Lee's last 8 starts with 5 days rest. The UNDER is 4-1 in the Braves last 5 overall, 4-0 in their last 4 as an underdog, and 5-0-1 in Delgado's 6 starts. Ryan Howard is doubtful Monday which is just a bonus here. Expect runs to be hard to come by as the Braves desperately need a win. UNDER 7 runs getting plus money looks like a great 2 unit pick for today.

David Banks

Washington Redskins / Cowboys Over

NFL Week 3 closes shop on MNF when the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys line it up to partake in yet another one of their historic rivalry match-ups; kick-off from Cowboys Stadium is set for 8:30 ET on ESPN.

The Redskins got out to a tremendous start to their 2011-12 campaign by getting the best of the division rival New York Giants in Week 1. Rex Grossman proved worthy of being head coach Mike Shanahan’s QB1 by completing 62 percent of his passes for 305 yards and a pair of scores without an interception. Though the former Florida Gator tossed for another 291 yards and two more scores last Sunday versus Arizona, Grossman was picked off twice deep in Arizona territory and had a number of passes either swatted or deflected at the line of scrimmage; it was far from being as crisp an effort as was displayed the previous week. Still, it doesn’t matter how you win them as long you do in this league, and the Redskins currently sit atop the NFC East with an unblemished 2-0 SU mark heading into tonight’s MNF showdown. Washington’s tallied just three wins in its L/19 trips to Big D!

The only way to describe Dallas’ Week 1 effort against the Jets would be a complete and utter meltdown by QB Tony Romo. His 4th quarter fumble and interception thrown allowed the Jets to comeback from a 24-10 deficit and pull out the 27-24 come-from-behind win in the closing seconds. Though head coach Jason Garrett’s squad found itself down 24-14 with just over 11 minutes remaining in last week’s game against the 49ers, QB Tony Romo returned from the locker room, broken rib as well as punctured lung and all, and led the Cowboys to 10 straight points to send the game into overtime. He then wasted no time connecting with WR Jesse Holley from 77 yards out to set K Dan Bailey up for the chip shot from 19-yards out to secure the team’s first win of the season. Dallas has lost each of its last two home openers.

This will be the 103rd meeting of this historic NFC East rivalry; Dallas holds a 60-40-2 SU advantage. The home teams prevailed in each of their 2010 meetings, but Washington beat the closing pointspread in both contests. The underdog has cashed an obscene 21 times in these teams L/27 overall meetings with Washington cashing bettors’ tickets in seven of the L/9 overall clashes. Washington has failed to cover each of its L/4 Monday Night Football appearances, while Dallas has also struggled under the Monday night lights going 1-5 ATS its L/6. The ‘under’ is 4-1 the L/5 meetings, but these teams have played to high scorers at a 3-1-1 clip the L/5 with Dallas as the host.

Rob Vinciletti

Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Under 9

This game fits a solid totals system here that plays to the under for road favorites of -200 or higher off a road win, vs an opponent who was also on the road in their last game. These games tend to be low scoring. Boston has J. Beckett making the start as they try and hold on for the wild card. Beckett has gone under in 11 of his 15 road starts and has a solid 2.68 road era this season. Four of the six games here this season have gone under and the Redsox have played under 5 of 7 times as a road favorite of -175 or higher. Look for this one to stay under the posted total.