Steve Janus
Los Angeles Angels -123
The Angels need a miracle to make it to the postseason, as they trail the Red Sox by 3 games in the Wild Card standings with just 3 games left and are also two games back of the Rays. While the odds aren't great, as long as their is a chance I expect this team to come out and put everything on the line to bring home a win. That really makes them a strong play at home tonight against the Rangers.
Los Angeles will start Dan Haren against C.J. Wilson. The Rangers have already locked up the AL West and will simply be going through the motions over the final three games of the season. Wilson is a great starter, but I can't imagine the Rangers keeping him out there for long as they will want him to be as fresh as possible going into game 1 of their first round matchup. Haren comes in 15-9 with a 3.22 ERA on the season, 8-3 with a 2.47 ERA on the road, and 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA in his last three starts.
The Angels are 23-8 in their last 31 home games vs. a left-handed starter, 16-6 in their last 22 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, and 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. BET THE ANGELS!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Toronto Blue Jays +113
The Blue Jays are showing value at this price considering they are 22-6 in their last 28 meetings with the White Sox. The Sox have dropped 11 of their last 15 overall, 6 of their last 7 at home and 17 of their last 21 when matched up against a club with a winning record. Toronto has a chance to record a fifth winning season in six years with two victories this week, and I expect the Jays to get it done. Expect them to get one of the two tonight with McGowan on the bump. He's won his last 2 starts against the Sox while only giving up 3 runs in 14 2-3 innings. Take Toronto.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +114
The Brewers still have plenty to play for with home-field advantage in the division round on the line. They have taken 10 of 12 from Pittsburgh this season, including all 6 at home. Going back, Milwaukee has won 19 of its last 21 at home against Pittsburgh. Also, Pitt's Charlie Morton is 0-4 (0-5 on the money line) when starting against the Brewers with an ERA of 6.20. He's lost these games by an average of 3.0 runs. Bet the Brew Crew on the run line.
Jack Jones
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-110)
The Boston Red Sox came up with a huge 14-inning victory in Game 2 of their double-header yesterday, beating the Yankees 7-4 to stay one game ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays for the wild-card spot. I look for Boston to take a collective sigh of relief, and to come into Game 1 against Baltimore with confidence and a chip on their shoulder.
The Red Sox lost three of four to Baltimore from 9/19-9/21 in their most recent series. They clearly won't be taking this team lightly, and they'll be looking for revenge tonight. Josh Beckett is going to be hungry as well after giving up a season-high six runs in 7 1/3 innings of a 4-6 loss to the Orioles on 9/21.
Beckett has been one of the best big-game pitchers in MLB history, and this is certainly a huge stage here tonight. Boston's Ace has gone 13-6 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 7-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.925 WHIP in 15 road outings. Beckett will show up with his best stuff tonight.
Tommy Hunter is 3-3 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.358 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Orioles. He has allowed a whopping 10 home runs in 63 1/3 innings. Hunter sports a 7.50 ERA and 1.499 WHIP in five career starts against Boston.
The Red Sox are 46-13 vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 3 seasons. They are winning in this spot 6.6 to 4.1 on average, and they are 40-19 against the run line in this situation. Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Monday.
David Malinsky
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Baltimore Orioles
The line here is simply absurd, a classic case of the markets not only forcing the “need” issues far beyond any reasonable level of merit, but also ignoring just how well the Orioles have been playing. So we step in and take the ride for a nice payday.
The Red Sox are just 6-18 September, and are going to be a tired bunch when they get to Camden Yards, after the night-cap vs. the Yankees in the Bronx finished just before midnight. There is nothing special about the form of Josh Beckett, who has only worked twice over the last three weeks, and was hit hard by the Baltimore lineup in a 6-4 loss in Fenway on Wednesday, including a pair of HR’s from Mark Reynolds. And as part of Terry Francona going “all in” last night, we will not see Jonathan Papelbon, who was stretched out to 2.1 IP. But where else can Francona turn late? For most of the season it has been Daniel Bard, but Bard also threw 28 pitches last night, and has worked to an ugly 11.00 in September, while Franklin Morales is a no-go off of 44 pitches, and Alfredo Aceves is a question mark off of 1.2 frames.
Meanwhile the Orioles have just been superb down the stretch. Since September 7 they have three wins over these Red Sox, two over the Yankees, two over the Rays, two over the Angels and two over the Tigers, every one of those a must-win game for the opposition. They have relished the chance to be a factor in the playoff proceedings, and Buck Showalter even gave Mark Reynolds and Adam Jones the day off on Sunday to have them fresher for this series. They will play loosely and with confidence, and have a much fresher bullpen for the latter stages, which makes this a tremendous value.
Black Widow
1* on Oakland A's -123
The Oakland A's get the call Monday with red hot starter Brandon McCarthy on the mound. McCarthy takes the ball seeking a ninth post All-Star victory as the visiting Athletics and Mariners begin a three-game set Monday night at Safeco Field. McCarthy (9-8, 3.26 ERA) has been very good since the Midsummer classic, going 8-3 with a 3.02 ERA. The right-hander has been particularly sharp over his last four starts, during which he's compiled a 1.55 ERA while holding opponents to a .185 average. McCarthy opened the month by throwing a three-hitter and striking out a career high-tying 10 during a 3-0 win over Seattle on Sept. 3, lowering his ERA to 1.14 in three meetings with Seattle (66-93) this season. With three losses this season, Jason Vargas is 0-4 with a 5.59 ERA in his last five outings against Oakland. The Mariners are 2-14 (-12.5 Units) against the money line off a loss by 6 runs or more to a division rival over the last 2 seasons. Seattle is 4-24 (-19.7 Units) against the money line after allowing 9 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the A's on the Money Line.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Washington +3.5 over DALLAS: Let's start off with a system for this one and then I'll end it with a system. For this first one we Play on any road dogs in week 3 if they were at home during the first two weeks of the year. This system has gone 33-18-2 since 1986, including 2-0 this year (San Fran & Denver). The Cowboys could be missing a lot of offense in this one Top WR Austin is out and RB Felix Jones, WR Dez Bryant and C Phil Costa are lsited as questionable, plus their leader Tony Romo is playing hurt. Last week Tony was courageous in the comeback win vs the Niners, but I just don't see him doing it again. The Skins defense has been tough this year and they rank 11th in yards allowed and that's was vs Giants and Cardinals offenses which do have some pop to them. The Skins have the 5th best yards per point defense in the league at 18.3. Other the Other side the Dallas defense does look solid overall as they are 5th in yards allowed 283 ypg, but their defensive YPP is 11.1, and that is the second worst number in the league. They will take on a Skins offense that has been better than expected as they come in ranked 11th in total offense (393 ypg) and 12th in points scored 25 ppg). I don't see them putting up big numbers tonight, but they will get enough from this side of the ball to outscore a Dallas team that just has too many injuries to overcome right now. The Dog is 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meeting s and the road team is on a 5-1 ATS run, plus we also note that despite leading the league with 42 wins on MNF, the Cowboys are just 7-7 vs the Skins under the Monday night lights, plus Dallas is just 5-10 ATS as a home fav since 1989 on MNF. Now here's that other system... Home teams (DALLAS) - with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are just 7-28 ATS since 1983. The right side in this one is Washington in a low scoring tight affair.
2 UNIT PLAY
Washington/ Dallas Under 45: I nailed all 3 of my Totals plays in the NFL this week and I look for another winner tonight. I just feel that Dallas is missing too much offense in this game to wanna play an up and down the field shootout with the Skins. Tony Romo is hurt and he will be missing top WR Austin and probably Felix Jones and Dez Bryant, so I look for a more conservative game plan by the Cowboys as deep shots down the field would take time and expose Tony to some possible hits. I see them dinking an dunking their wy down the field and that will eat up plenty of clock. The Skins offense has been very good this year but their offensive YPP is still 15.7, which is 17th in the league and they will be facing a Dallas defense that is 5th in yards allowed at 283 ypg, plus they will be getting back CB Terrance Newman, which should help this unit greatly vs the pass. Theses two teams have been involved in some wild ones, but I see this one as tight low scoring game.