Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, September 27,2010

Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Athletics at Angels
Prediction: Under
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Angels starter Ervin Santana has allowed 3 or less in his last 5 starts. The Halos are 19-5-3 UNDER their 27 games as favorites. Los Angeles is 18-6-2 UNDER their last 20 home games. Los Angeles is 19-7-2 UNDER when the Total is 7.0. to 8.5. The Angles are 8-1-2 UNDER off a loss. Oakland starter Brett Anderson has allowed 5 runs total in his last 4 starts. The A's are 26-12-2 UNDER their last 40 games vs. righty starters. Oakland is 20-6 UNDER in game one of a series and they are 20-8 UNDER when the Total is 7.0 to 8.5 and they are 34-16-1 UNDER their last 51 Monday games.

Frank JordanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Packers vs. Bears
Play: Under 45.5
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Both teams put up big numbers on offense last week with Chicago putting up 27 and the Packers 34 points, but they weren't playing each other who have great defenses. Each team is allowing under 20 points per game. Look for these two teams to get some points but the defenses will step up and have each team high teens low 20's. Play the Under

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Minnesota hopes a trip to Kansas City can help them get back on the winning track. The Twins may get back Joe Mauer to the lineup as a DH as the team wants to see him hitting without the burden of having to catch as well. They'll face Kyle Davies who has been pretty poor this season. He's 8-11 with a 5.05 ERA in 30 starts. The righty is 3-6 with a 4.65 ERA at home this season. He has also lost two straight starts after alling to the Tigers and Indians. Davies has faced the Twins once this season and he have up five runs and eight hits in 6.7 innings of work. Joe Mauer (10-24), Jason Kubel (9-20), Jim Thome (4-12), and Danny Valencia (1-3) all have good numbers against the Royals starter. The Twins are 40-38 on the road this season, but 46-23 against the rest of the A.L. Central. Minnesota is 5-1 this season in Kansas City and 12-3 against the Royals overall. The Royals bullpen is 10-12 with a 4.40 ERA and 11 blown saves at home. Kevin Slowey is pitching real well right now for the Twins. He's 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA in his last three starts after giving up just six runs and 18 hits over their last 15.7 innings pitched. Slowey is 1-1 with a 3.31 ERA in three starts against the Royals this season. Billy Butler (2-16), Alex Gordon (2-11), Mitch Maier (1-7), Wilson Betemit (1-4), and Gregor Blanco (1-4) have struggled against the Twins starter. Kansas City is 27-42 against the A.L. Central and 34-40 at home. The Twins bullpen has an ERA below 3.30 on the road. We’ll recommend a play on the Twins tonight since they’ve owned the Royals this season.

Craig TrappFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Wow great price on a team that needs wins to get home field advantage thru AL playoffs verse worst team in the division. Slowley has been great last two starts going 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA. Also a positive is Mauer will be back as DH so the Twins lineup will score runs tonight. Davies is at best an average pitcher. He has struggled against the Twins, posting a 4-6 record with a 4.88 ERA over 10 lifetime starts. This one is about motivation and the better team both are MIN! EASY WINNER!

EZWINNERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Yankees -141
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The Yankees starting pitcher AJ Burnett has not had a good second half of the season, but I expect him to pitch well enough in this game against the Blue Jays for the Yankees to pick up the win. Toronto's starting pitcher Marc Rzepczynski has not been that great this season and the Yankees have used him like a batting practice pitcher in the past. In two games against New York this season, Rzepczynski is 0-1 with an ERA of 14.14 having allowed eleven earned runs on fourteen hits in just seven innings of work. For his career, Rzepczynsi is 0-2 against the Yankees in four games with an ERA of 10.47 having allowed nineteen earned runs and twenty six hits in only sixteen and a third inning of work. I expect more of the same in this game. The Jays are only 1-6 in Rzepczynskis last seven starts. Play on New York.

JIM FEIST

TIGERS / INDIANS
TAKE: OVER

The Tigers have been playing very well of late, winning eight of their last 10 games. However, the two losses are both at the hands of today's starter, Armando Galarraga. Galarraga has struggled beyond those two losses, going 0-2 with a 5.13 ERA in his last six starts. But who can forget Galarraga's game at home against these Indians back on June 2 when the right-hander missed out on a perfect game against Cleveland when Jim Joyce blew the call at first base. I like the OVER here on Monday. The Tigers just completed a sweep of the Twins in which they scored 26 runs and batted .339. Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco has started just five games this year and has pitched well, going 1-1 with a 3.03 ERA. With the hot hitting of the Tigers coupled with a shaky Galarraga, I'm looking for a high scoring affair on Monday.

POINTWISE

Green Bay 34 - CHICAGO 20 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Bears off to first 2-0 start since '06 Super Bowl season. And what a change in Cutler. Try 21-of-29 for 277 yds & 3 TDs (no picks), in road upset of the Cowboys. That after being held below 21 pts 11 times since LY. The Packers, as expected, sit atop the NFC North (with the Bears), behind Rodgers' leadership. Are +104 pts ATS last 11 games, & won by a TD here last year. GreenBay is 23-9 ATS on the road of late, & Chicago is just 4-9 ATS in division play off SU win. Sudden division showdown goes to GB.

PLAYBOOK

Green Bay over CHICAGO by 3

Monday night division home dogs. Wow, have we made a living out of backing these guys. So good for so many years but not so these days, as these pooches are just 8-15 ATS this millennium – and that includes the Chiefs’ upset win over the Chargers opening week this season. With Chicago numbers like 7-0 ATS in September off a non-division game and 8-1-1 ATS as dogs of more than three points with revenge, why stop now? Two words: Jay Cutler. While the addition of Mike Martz as offensive coordinator has given the Bears a boost, Cutler’s lousy numbers are always a concern. The veteran QB is a money-burning 17-37-1 ATS in his career, including an INT throwing 1-8 ATS off back-to-back SU wins. Cutler’s counterpart, Aaron Rodgers on the other hand, is 21-13-1 ATS in his career starts, including 12-6 ATS away and 9-3 ATS versus the division. If it weren’t for the huge discrepancy in QB numbers, we’d consider another Monday Night division home dog… but for now we know better. All we can do tonight is sit back and enjoy the show.

NELLY

Green Bay (-3) CHICAGO (45)

This NFC North battle will be an early bench mark to establish one of the early NFC favorites. Green Bay is 2-0 with a solid win last week but the schedule has been favorable. The Packers have not scored as easily as most expected and the pass defense could be tested in this game. Jay Cutler has looked brilliant in the new offensive system but winning back-to-back huge games is unlikely for a mistake prone team. PACKERS BY 7

KILLER SPORTS

Packers at Bears – The Packers are 9-0-1 ATS (9.9 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as a road favorite after a straight up win at home. The Packers are 7-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since November 29, 1999 as a road favorite the week after a win in which they committed no turnovers. The Bears are 0-8 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 02, 2008 vs a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Packers are 10-0-1 OU (13.8 ppg) since January 06, 2002 as a favorite when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2 at home. The Bears are 7-0-1 OU (11.0 ppg) since September 23, 2007 when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.

POWER PLAYS

Rodgers is 4-0 SU & ATS vs the Bears who are a surprising 2-0 after their upset win vs DAL. The Bears want to use this game to show the nation that they shouldn’t be taken lightly especially after 2009. The winner of this game gets a huge lead vs the 0-2 Vikings in the division.NO PLAY: BEARS 27 PACKERS 26

GOLD SHEET

*CHICAGO 20 - Green Bay 19—Packers earned a pair of narrow series covers LY. Now, however, G.B’s key RB Ryan Grant is gone, while Chicago RB Matt Forte seems rejuvenated and QB Jay Cutler bolstered by the tutoring of offensive coordinator Mike Martz. In his first game as the Packers’ new starting RB, Brandon Jackson rushed for only 29 yards and 2.6 ypc vs. Buffalo’s injured LB corps. Without Grant’s slashing threat, Julius Peppers and friends put the pressure on Aaron Rodgers. G.B. OLB Clay Matthews (six sacks already!) commanding extra attention, so might prefer “under.”
(09-G. BAY 21-Chi. 15...C.18-12 C.31/86 G.22/76 C.17/36/4/266 G.17/28/0/150 G.0 C.0)
(09-G. Bay 21-CHI. 14...G.16-14 G.31/146 C.17/59 C.23/36/2/195 G.16/24/0/169 G.2 C.0)
(09-GREEN BAY -4' 21-15, Green Bay -4 21-14...SR: Chicago 91-82-6)

GOLD SHEET EXTRA

GREEN BAY at CHICAGO (Monday, September 27)...Pack has covered the last four meetings, all of those “under” as well. Pack solid lately vs. number in almost all categories, including 37-18 overall last 54 since late ‘06, 22-8 last 30 away, 9-4 last 13 as road chalk, and 4-1 as DD chalk since ‘07. Tech edge-Pack and slight to “under,” based on series and team trends.

Lenny Del GenioFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
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The Rockies' Ubaldo Jiminez has faltered a bit in his quest to become the NL's second 20-game winner (Halladay), but the price is still right here considering the righty's 20-2 team start record when priced as a -150 favorite or higher here at Coors Field. The Dodgers are 22-34 on the road vs. righties this year and starter Ted Lilly has a 0-3 TSR and 6.61 ERA L3 outings. Take Colorado.

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Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
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High price, but worth the risk as the Rays continue to battle with the Yankees for first place in the American League East. They've worked the O's in head to head play this season, taking 10 of 15 games and have dominated lefties to the tune of 36-16. Starter Wade Davis has turned in a 1.73 ERA L3 starts and faces a Baltimore team that is 7-28 on turf. The Rays are 97-38 as a home favorite of -150 or more.
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Play on: Tampa Bay

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Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Minnesota is 92-63 overall this year while Kansas City comes in with a 63-92 overall this season. Minnesota is 27-13 last 3 years after 3 or more consecutive losses. Minnesota is 135-80 last 3 years against division opponents. Kansas City has lost 4 of their last 5 games overall. Minnesota bullpen has a 3.32 ERA overall this year and a 3.20 ERA on the road this season. Kevin Slowey is 13-6 overall this year, 5-2 on the road this year and 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA his last 3 starts. Minnesota has won 12 of 15 meetings with Kansas City this year and 19-5 at Kansas City the past 3 years. Slowey is 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA overall vs Kansas City since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota tonight!

MATT FARGOFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets
PICK: New York Mets
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The Mets are in good condition to take this series opener on Monday. They took the final two games in Philadelphia over the weekend to bring some momentum back home for the final week of the season. New York finished a disappointing 32-49 on the road this season but it comes in with a 44-30 record at Citi Field. The Mets are 51-21 in their last 72 home games against teams with a losing record.
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The Brewers are coming off a 4-3 homestand to end their season at Miller Park with a 40-41 record. Milwaukee was a big disappointment this season as it came in a contender in the National League Central but a slow start never got it involved. The Brewers are eight games under .500 on the road and 5-11 in their last 16 games as an underdog. Also Milwaukee is 2-5 in its last seven games against losing teams.
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Mike Pelfrey has been pitching a lot better after mid-season slump. He has tossed three straight quality starts as well as seven in his last nine including all five at home. Pelfrey is 10-3 with a 2.87 ERA at home this season and has posted quality performances in 12 of 17 starts. The Mets are 13-3 in Pelfrey’s last 16 home starts against teams with a losing record.
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David Bush has not been as good of late and his season has been an inconsistent one. He has a 4.70 ERA on the year including an ERA of 4.99 on the road where the Brewers have gone just 4-9 in his 13 starts. In 21 starts under the lights, Milwaukee is only 5-16 when Bush steps on the mound as they have averaged only 3.67 rpg in those starts. Milwaukee is 2-9 in Bush’s last 11 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.
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The total set tonight also favors New York as it is in Pelfrey’s last 35 home starts with the total set between 7 and 8.5 while the Brewers are 4-17 in Bush’s last 21 road starts with the total set between 7 and 8.5. 3* New York Mets

SEAN MURPHYFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Chicago White Sox
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It's a classic case of overvalued vs. undervalued as Clay Buchholz and the Red Sox take on Mark Buehrle and the White Sox on Monday night.
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Boston just finished taking two of three games from the Yankees in the Bronx over the weekend, but they won't be riding high into tonight's contest after blowing a ninth-inning lead and ultimately losing in extra inning last night. The loss essentially ended their season, and now they have to travel to face a streaking White Sox club.
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Chicago swept the Angels in Anaheim over the weekend and has now won four consecutive games since that stunning comeback victory in Oakland last Wednesday (I'm still stinging from that one).
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The White Sox have had the Red Sox number lately, taking three of four games in their last series here at U.S. Cellular Field last September, and notching a three-game series sweep in Boston earlier this month.
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Clay Buchholz gets the nod for the Red Sox on Monday. He has allowed just eight hits and one earned run over his last two starts, spanning 13 innings of work. But keep in mind, those outings came against the Mariners and Orioles, two of the weakest offensive clubs in the American League.
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Buchholz hasn't had much success against the White Sox, making one start against them in 2008, one in 2009, and already one here in 2010. He hasn't lasted beyond the fifth inning in any of those outings, allowing 19 hits and 14 earned runs while striking out nine and walking six over 12 2/3 innings pitched.
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As I mentioned, Mark Buehrle will get the start for the White Sox. Here's a guy that has given up 37 hits in 25 innings pitched this month, but I still believe he's worth a shot in this particular situation. It's not as if his stuff has been all that bad, as he has posted a 16:5 strikeout to walk ratio this month.
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There's plenty of room for improvement for Buehrle in his last couple of starts in 2010. Note that he held opponents to a .239 batting average in July and a .259 ledger in August. In September, that average has climbed to .336, but expect him to improve on that beginning tonight.
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Buehrle owns a fantastic 37:14 strikeout to walk ratio against the current Red Sox roster. He's been masterful in his last two home starts against them, both resulting in White Sox victories.
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The mindsets of these two teams couldn't be any further from one another right now. The Red Sox had their hearts ripped out in New York last night while the White Sox enjoyed a flight home from Anaheim after four consecutive victories. It shows on the diamond tonight. Take Chicago.

DAVID MALINSKYFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
PICK: Chicago Cubs
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Is there anyone pitching better than Carlos Zambrano right now? It has been a 6-0/1.42 over nine starts since he returned to the Cub rotation, a case of a guy that has his head on straight again, and also the rare September freshness that comes from having had a much lower innings count this season. And the more work he gets the more dynamic his stuff becomes – over his last six starts it has been nearly twice as many K’s (43) as hits allowed (23). That makes this generous underdog price difficult to pass up because not only is Zambrano on top of his game, but Chicago has gone 19-11 with Mike Quade turning in the lineup card, including a sharp 12-3 on the road. With one final week left in his audition to become the full-time manager, you know what this opportunity means.
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In the same span that the Cubs have gone 19-11 under Quade, the Padres are only 13-19. The nerves are absolutely in play for what is just an average team that has to execute at the top of their game to win, and those nerves can particularly impact Tim Stauffer here. While Stauffer’s statistics since moving into the starting rotation have been decent, much of that was the scheduling – he got to face the Dodger and Giant offenses in Petco, and then the punchless Dodgers again on the road. In the toughest challenge he lost at St. Louis, allowing four runs in only five innings, and off of a season-high of 95 pitches in his last outing the toil of five straight starts can have an impact. That once formidable Padre bullpen has teetered a bit down the stretch, largely because they have been overworked, and with the starters only eating 27 innings over the last five games that pen is not exactly fresh coming into a night in which they will likely have to work four full innings.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies -1½
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The Colorado Rockies should roll over the Dodgers tonight behind Ace Ubaldo Jimenez. The Rockies will need a big finish if they are to make the postseason, and it starts tonight with Game 1 against L.A. Jimenez aims to become a 20-game winner by leading his team to victory. Jimenez is 19-7 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.181 WHIP in 31 starts this season.
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Ted Lilly has been struggling for the Dodgers, going 0-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Los Angeles packed it in a long time ago, and they are 3-8 in their last 11 games overall. The Dodgers are 0-5 in Lilly's last 5 starts. L.A. is 18-37 in their last 55 vs. a team with a winning record. Jimenez is 20-2 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons. The Rockies are winning these games by an average of 3.7 RPG. Take Colorado on the Run Line Monday.