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3* on Seattle Mariners +168
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Reasons the Mariners win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs. This is a 31-21 ML System hitting 59.6% since 1997.
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2.) Texas has already wrapped up their AL West. They are guaranteed a spot in the postseason, and it's guaranteed to be on the road in their divisional series. So they have nothing to gain the rest of the way. Manager Ron Washington has already stated he's going to get his best players some rest down the stretch, and it will be hard for the Rangers to actually go out and play motivated baseball. Seattle starter David Pauley is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last 3 starts. Bet the Mariners on the road.
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Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
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Oakland and the Los Angeles Angels both head into the final week of the season off a series loss and will make an effort to finish .500 before the year ends. The Angels were swept by the White Sox at the Big A and the Athletics lost last three games to AL West division winner Texas, the last is decisive fashion 16-9. The Halos haven’t been hitting again and the starting pitching, more than the bullpen has been the reason they have failed to scratch in the win column.
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Game One of the series has a good pitching matchup with Brett Anderson throwing for the A’s and Ervin Santana on the mound for L.A. Oakland might be at disadvantage since road teams playing after a game where the bullpen was rocked for six or more earned runs, against opponent with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last five games, are 19-62 since 2006 and miserable 2-14 this campaign in this spot.
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1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +132
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I know every game counts for the Padres, who are in a tight divisional race, but the Cubs are showing excellent value in a pitcher-friendly park with ace Carlos Zambrano on the hill. Big Z has won his last 5 decisions while not allowing more than 2 runs in any of those games. In fact, Zambrano has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 9 straight starts. In addition, he's 6-2 lifetime with an ERA of 2.61 against San Diego. It is also worth noting that the Cubs are 10-2 in their last 12 games following a loss, 14-3 in their last 17 road games and 10-4 in their last 14 games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Padres are just 5-13 in their last 18 games as a favorite, 3-9 in their last 12 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 0-5 in Stauffer's last 5 starts vs. the National League Central. Take the Cubbies.
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1 Unit on Chicago White Sox +108
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he White Sox have quietly won 4 in a row, and I like their chances at home tonight against a Boston club coming off a tough extra innings loss in New York last night. The Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 meetings with the South Siders, and ending that skid will be very difficult in this spot. Buehrle has been nearly unstoppable as a home dog. In fact, the White Sox are 6-1 in his last 7 starts as a home underdog. They are also a perfect 6-0 in his last 6 starts in series openers. In addition, the Red Sox are only 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter. Buchholz has had a great season for Boston, but he is 0-2 in his career when starting against Chicago with an ERA of 9.94. Take the White Sox tonight.
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CHICAGO +3 over Green Bay
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There are at least two reasons why this is a no play for us. First, the Packers are a Monday Night road favorite and if you make a habit of laying points on the road in Monday Night games for the rest of your career, your bankroll with take a big hit. Secondly, too many folks are on the Packers and that, too, should be a big red flag. NFL football has very little to do with matchups and who is better than whom. Seldom is anything as it seems. The Bears are 2-0 and the place will be absolutely bonkers tonight. Chicago loves its football team as much as any city in America and now they have hope. The Bears are not that good. They have a ton of flaws and one of those flaws is a pass defense that gives up big yards and big plays and that’s an area that Aaron Rodgers should strive against. Chicago beat Detroit in week one, barely, and they somehow beat Dallas in week 2 in Dallas. That’s the game that made the Bears stock way overvalued and that’s usually the time to “sell”. However, emotion plays a huge part in these games and this week might not be the right time to sell on the Bears. Should they win here, next week will be the perfect time to sell. The Packers are also 2-0 after beating the Eagles and destroying the Bills. They’ll be jacked up tonight too, but they have some serious adjustments to make if its running game is getting anything and this might not be the best setting to try and get something going. So yeah, on paper, the Pack is far superior and a big win here against these imposter Bears is a definite possibility. However, we’ve seen these small road favorites on Monday Night fail to win far more times than not and thus, they cannot be trusted in this favorable spot for the home side. We’re going to pass but hold on a gun to out heads and the play is the Bears. Play: Chicago +3 (No bets).
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COLORADO –1½ +1.20 over Los Angeles
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Ted Lilly is well suited to pitch at Chavez Ravine and many other parks but he’s hugely vulnerable in parks that don’t cater to fly-ball pitchers like this one. Lilly’s FB rate over the last month is an incredible 65%. This guy is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a capital E. It’s no coincidence that in three career starts at Coors Field, Lilly is 1-2 with a 10.03 ERA and a .392 opponent BA. Combined with Colorado’s recent hot hitting, their hot play at home this year, and their performance against lefties (.762 OPS, league-leading 242 runs), it doesn’t make Lilly look like a strong play. It gets better. The Rockies have scored 20 more runs this month than any other team in the league. They’ve also scored 88 more runs than the Dodgers this month alone. Los Angeles has scored 19 fewer runs than any other NL team. The Rockies are making a late push for the wild card and playing at home should help their cause. Colorado is a league-leading 21 games better at home than on the road. The Rockies’ are tied for the NL lead in OPS this month with an .831 mark; the Dodgers are last at .568. Oh, did we mention that Ubaldo Jiminez is going? Play: Colorado –1½ +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
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Oakland is just 30-50 as a dog this season while the Halos are 30-20 in divisional games. The home team has won 10 of 16 meetings. LA is 19-12 in Santana’s starts overall this year and winners in 11 of his 16 home outings.
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1 Unit on NY Yankees -132
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The Yanks head to Toronto with some nice momentum, created by last night's extra-innings win over rival Boston. I like New York's chances tonight as A.J. Burnett faces off against his former team. Considering Burnett is 0-3 on the ML against Toronto this season, he will be extremely focused when he takes the mound tonight. Run support shouldn't be an issue as Marc Rzepczynski has lost both of his starts against the Yankees this season, allowing 11 runs in just 7 innings. In fact, in 4 career starts against NY, he has an ERA of 10.47. In addition, the Jays have lost 6 of his last 7 starts. With a win tonight, the Yanks clinch a postseason berth, and I expect them to do just that.
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CLE (-120) vs DET
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I'm pretty irked that we missed getting on the Indians at -106 or -110, because even late last night I knew this line was going to make a jump, and I foolishly let fatigue get in the way of snatching up a superlative value.
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Fortunately, the Indians are still going to win this game handily, and we can still cash on it.
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Why?
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Well, very quickly, since I already broke this game down in my DAILY BLOG:
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Armando Galarraga is pitching hurt. He's been battling soreness in his pitching arm, and was SUPPOSED to get a start or two skipped, but a minor injury to Rick Porcello forced Galarraga to pitch through pain. His injury has not subsided, as a result, and he's been getting knocked around.
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Also, this is the team he's completely dominated in 2 starts this year, already. Three times is just not going to happen for a middle-tier journeyman like Armando.
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Detroit played their final home game yesterday and completed a sweep of the Twins, so this is a bit of a letdown spot for them. No one wants to go on the road to finish a meaningless month/season.
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The Indians can secure 4th place in the AL Central with a couple series wins to close their season. It might not mean much to you or me, but to the Indians, getting up over the Royals and closing the season the right way is very important.
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The motivation is squarely on the Indians side, the Detroit hurler is in a terrible spot, and the Indians are coming off a very strong series with Kansas City. I like Cleveland to keep it going at a weird price.
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Play on the Indians!
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Green Bay (-3) at CHICAGO
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As for your free play, take the over in tonight’s Monday Night battle between Green Bay and Chicago.
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As well as both offenses are playing, and considering the firepower that Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler possess, I’m surprised at how low the total is.
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With Mike Martz as the new offensive coordinator in Chicago, Cutler is playing lights out right now. Everyone knows how much Martz likes to throw the football and Cutler has made him look like a genius through the first two games.
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On the other side of the ball, Rodgers is a two-time, 4,000-yard passer and he has weapons all over the place to throw to.
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I just can’t see this game staying below the number with the passing game both teams possess.
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Take the over as your comp play, noting the over is on a 22-13-1 roll on Monday nights after the Saints-Niners sneaked over the total last week.
3♦ OVER
Joel TysonFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Green Bay (-3) at CHICAGO
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Taking a look at the total for tonight's game, this price looks a little too tall for the call, as I believe we are going to see the defenses take charge in this game as they usually do when the teams meet.
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Green Bay and Chicago have played 4 straight unders in the series, and 6 of the last 8 in this NFC North rivalry have also stayed low.
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The Packers will be looking to find a running game now that Ryan Grant is lost for the season, so you know Chicago will dare Aaron Rodgers to try an establish some sort of running game.
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As for Green Bay, Clay Matthews has already recorded 6 sacks, so you just know he is just itching to get at turnover-prone Jay Cutler tonight.
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Defensive showcase if you ask me, take the under tonight at Soldier Field.
4♦ UNDER
Chris Jordan
Washington at PHILADELPHIA (-1.5)
As for your free choice, the Phillies will get it done with a complete pitching mismatch tonight. Roy Halladay is the much better choice than John Lannan.
Philadelphia's ace is a perfect 6-0 with a 1.51 ERA in his last six starts against this franchise, while the Phillies are 10-5 against Washington this season.
The two-time defending National League champs have also won 17 of 20 road games since Aug. 1 - the best mark in baseball in that span - so they'll be fine with clinchin on the highway.
The run support shouldn't be an issue, as Lannan is 0-7 with a 6.06 ERA in 10 career starts against the Phils, and that includes a 0-1 mark and 7.27 ERA in two this season - both in D.C.
Play the Phils here.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA -1.5
Derek Mancini
Detroit (-105) at CLEVELAND
As for your free pick, and keep in mind I'm on a 13-7 run with these that I'm giving away, I'm going to back the Detroit Tigers. Love this match up for Armando Galarraga, who's got some good numbers against the Tribe this season. We all remember his first meeting (the Jim Joyce incident), and he followed that up with 7 scoreless innings August 20th. That's right, 16 scoreless innings in 2 starts against Cleveland this season.
The problem is people are concentrating on Galarraga's most recent efforts, which admittedly have been sub-par. He's surrendered 12 runs on 17 hits over his 2 starts (just 9 innings), and I can understand why that would scare the majority of players off. However, based on his history against the Indians, this is a prime bounce back spot for the Tigers righty.
Not only is this a good spot for the Galarraga because of his history against the Tribe, but he's also going to be backed by an offense that's red-hot right now. The Tigers crushed the Twins in their most recent series, batting .339 while scoring 26 runs in the 3-game sweep. That's all bad news for Carlos Carrasco, who lost both starts against Detroit last year while posting an 11.25 ERA. Granted, he's been much better this season, but he's also catching the Tigers at the wrong time - during their surge at the plate.
Both teams are playing well of late, but the Tigers looked damn good against the Twins over the weekend, and should continue their red-hot ways against Carrasco tonight. On the flip side, Galarraga owns the Tribe and I don't see any reason for that to change in this one.
2♦ DETROIT
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Dodgers at COLORADO (-1.5, +110)
As for my comp selection, the Rockies are absolutely in must-win mode now. They have literally got to run the table in the final seven games to make any noise in the playoff hunt. Tonight it starts as their ace Ubaldo Jimenez (19-7, 3.00 ERA) goes for his 20th win of the season. He’ll get it with ease as the Rockies blow out the hapless Dodgers. So let’s go ahead and play Colorado on the runline to win this one easily by more than one run.
Jimenez has faced the Dodgers three times this season and held them to three runs or less in two of the three. Plus he’s seen them 10 times since 2008 and held them to three runs or less six times. He’s gotten roughed up in his last few starts but he’s still held the opposition to three runs or less in seven of his last 10 outings. And with that potent Colorado offense, giving up three runs should still produce an easy win for them tonight.
Ted Lilly (8-12, 3.83 ERA) is scheduled to start for Los Angeles and he’s struggled a bit lately, going 0-3 with a 6.61 ERA. The Dodgers have lost each of his last five starts and he is 0-4 with a no-decision in those five.
In his last outing in Colorado back on August 29, Lilly gave up seven runs in four innings of a 10-5 loss. The Dodgers are on skids of 6-14 overall, 4-10 on the road, 4-12 against N.L. West teams, 5-21 on the road against winning teams and 1-5 on Monday.
The Rockies are on surges of 44-18 at home, 36-16 when Jimenez starts at home, 11-4 when he gets four days off, 22-9 in his last 31 starts and 7-3 when he pitches a series opener. Colorado has taken four of the last five clashes with Los Angeles and I’ll play the Rockies on the runline in this one.
4♦ COLORADO -1.5
Chuck O'Brien
L.A. Dodgers at COLORADO -1.5
For today’s comp play, we turn back to baseball, where we’ll side with the Rockies on the run line (-1½ runs) over the Dodgers. Obviously, this game is much more critical to Colorado – whose playoff hopes are on life support, as the Rockies (1-6 last seven games) are now four games back of San Diego in the wild-card race – than it is to the Dodgers (whose season was over weeks ago and they’ve been playing like it).
Ubaldo Jimenez takes the ball for Colorado tonight, and while he hasn’t exactly been his dominant self lately (14 earned runs in his last four starts covering just 22 1/3 innings), he’s still capable of throwing a gem anytime he takes the mound. Jimenez, who is gunning for his 20th victory, is 9-1 with a 3.23 ERA in 14 starts at Coors Field (and the Rockies are 12-2 when he pitches at home). Tonight, the filthy right-hander faces a punchless Dodgers offense that has scored just 13 runs in its last six games.
Going back to a 5-3 loss in Colorado on Aug. 28, the Dodgers are 8-19 overall and 4-11 at home. And one day after that 5-3 defeat, L.A. sent Ted Lilly to the Coors Field mound and he gave up seven runs and nine hits in four innings, losing 10-5. So in three career starts in Denver, the lefty has allowed 14 runs (13 earned), 20 hits and eight walks in 11 2/3 innings, resulting in a 10.03 ERA, a 2.40 WHIP and a .392 opponents’ batting average. Finally, the Dodgers have lost five straight games in back of Lilly, starting with that 10-5 setback to the Rockies.
5♦ COLORADO -1.5
Scott Delaney
New York at TORONTO (+140)
It sounds funny to say this, but the wild-card leading Yankees are 6 1/2 games in front of the Red Sox and are chasing the Rays in the American League East.
What seemed like a runaway freight train not too long ago, the Yankees can clinch a playoff berth with one more win or a Boston loss.
Tonight, they'll have to hope for a Boston loss, cause I don't see the Yankees winning this one.
They're handing the ball to A.J. Burnett, who has been shaky on the mound for the Yankees of late. And you couple that with the fact the Yankees are 7-8 against the Blue Jays this season and have lost four of six in Toronto, and this could be a long night for the pinstripes.
Burnett is 1-6 with a 6.16 ERA since the start of August, and now catches a red-hot Blue Jays team that extended its winning streak to four with Sunday’s 5-2 victory over Baltimore.
And remember, the Jays lead the majors with 241 home runs. Not good for Burnett, who is 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA in three starts against his former employer this season, and comes in with a 7.24 ERA after losing both starts at Rogers Centre while wearing a Yankees uniform.
Take the Jays tonight.
3♦ TORONTO
Karl Garrett
N.Y. Yankees at TORONTO
Now how about I give you a free winner for Monday, and I am taking the Yankees-Blue Jays to combine to go over the posted total with A.J. Burnett and Marc Rzepcynski on the mound.
Both pitchers sport season ERA's over 5, and both pitchers have been hit hard by the opposition this year.
New York comes to the Rogers Centre having played over the posted total in 5 of their last 7 games, while Toronto has been over the total in 3 of their last 5 overall.
As for your series totals, the last 3 meetings have all sailed over the posted price. The teams are also on an 8-2-1 over tear the last 11 season series meetings.
G-Man sticking with the trends here, and looking for another over in the New York-Toronto series.
3♦ OVER
Craig Davis
Detroit at CLEVELAND (-120)
As for today's free play, I like the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers. I have won a lot of wagers going against the Tigers on the road, and tonight should be no different.
Detroit is a miserable 28-46 away from Comerica Park, and it doesn't seem to matter who they play, including Cleveland. Detroit has won four straight overall, but they come in tonight trying to stop a five-game slide at Cleveland. If that happens, Armando Galarraga is going to have to "get it right". The Tigers have actually won eight of their last ten games, but the two losses both came with Galarraga on the hill.
The righty is 0-2 with a 5.13 ERA in his last six starts - all losses by Detroit.
Carlos Carrasco (1-1, 3.03 ERA) counters for Cleveland tonight and has been one of the few bright spots for the Indians recently. He posted an 8.87 ERA in five outings in 2009, but has pitched at a 180-degrees turnaround in 2010 in five starts thus far.
He allowed three runs over six innings Wednesday in a 5-1 loss at Minnesota, but the loss clearly was not on him. In 14 innings pitched at home this year, Carrasco is 0-0 but has a 1.84 ERA. I believe the Indians will only need a few runs tonight to get their young pitcher his first home win of the year.
The home team has won the last nine meetings and 13 of 15 in 2010.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Stephen Nover
Boston (-115) at CHICAGO
As far as Monday baseball, I'm putting out the Boston Red Sox as a free play against the Chicago White Sox. The pitching matchup is Clay Buchholz versus Mark Buehrle. The price is low enough on the Red Sox to back them.
Boston has the motivation, still being mathematically alive for the playoffs, and a much stronger pitcher going.
Buchholz is chasing Seattle's Felix Hernandez for the ERA title. Hernandez is the leader with a week left at 2.31. Buchholz is second at 2.39.
Buchholz has allowed only one earned run in his last 13 innings. Buehrle is clearly worn down. He hasn't won during his past six starts. His ERA during this span is 5.92.
3♦ RED SOX
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Dodgers at Rockies
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Ubaldo Jimenez has produced an outstanding 19-7 season with a 3.00 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. But he has been a bit more vulnerable in Coors Field where he has a 3.23 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .245 opponent's batting average as compared to his 2.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and .189 opponent's batting average when on the road this season. In fact, the Rockies have played eight of their last nine home games Over the Total with Jimenez on the mound. Jimenez struggles against the Dodgers as well given his 5.27 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and .280 opponent's batting average in 82 innings of work in his career. Los Angeles counters with Ted Lilly who is 8-12 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP this season. Lilly has struggled on the road this year with his 4.18 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .268 opponent's batting average as compared to his 3.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and .208 opponent's batting average at home this year. Colorado is torching lefties as of late as they are hitting .340 over their last ten games against left-handed pitchers. And the Rockies have played eight straight home games Over the Total against left-handed starters. The Over offers nice value here.
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Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
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Yes, the Los Angeles Angels are just going through the motions right now, but Ervin Santana seems to be unaffected by the lethargy around him and we look for him to notch his 18th win of the season tonight vs. the Oakland Athletics.
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The bookmakers have installed the Halos as narrow favorites here, with betting odds of -115.
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The Angels are not used to being in this position, as they have become perennial favorites to win the American League West every year under Mike Scioscia. They have been long been eliminated this year though and now find themselves five games under .500 (75-80) after getting swept here at home by an equally dead White Sox team over the weekend.
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All of that said, Santana has managed to go 17-9 for them, and the Angels as a team are 7-2 in his last nine starts, while apparently quitting on the rest of the pitching staff, Then again, it is hard to have a losing record when you have a 3.77 ERA in the American League over 31 starts like Santana does, and he has recorded five straight Quality Starts and has allowed two earned runs or less in six of his last eight outings, so his record is certainly not due to luck.
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Now granted, Athletics’ starter Brett Anderson is in equally raging current form, as he has nine Quality Starts in his last 10 starts in his own right. It should be pointed out though that most of that success game at home and Oakland Alameda Coliseum is a spacious pitchers’ paradise, where games are averaging just a combined 7.78 runs per game this year.
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Anderson’s only non-quality outing in his last 10 games did come on the road, and he was not sharp the last time he pitched in Anaheim, when the Angels reached him for four earned runs on seven hits in six innings of a 9-1 Angels win.
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Look for the Halos to continue to support Santana as he gets is 18th victory.
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Pirates @ Cardinals
PICK: Over 9.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This exact same pitching matchup occurred last Wednesday in Pittsburgh and here's what a wrote; "Look how similar the 2010 season has been for the Cards' Kyle Lohse and the Pirates' Charlie Morton. Lohse went on the DL with a right forearm strain on May 27 and Morton on the DL with right shoulder fatigue less than a week. later. Both stayed on the DL much longer than anticipated, then both rehabbed in the minors. Lohse was recalled on August 15 and Norton on August 28. Both have had miserable years. Lohse is 4-7 with a 6.75 ERA in 15 starts, contributing to a problem the Cards have had all season with the "back end" of their rotation. With Carpenter, Garcia or Wainwright on the mound the Cards are 55-38 (.591) in 2010 but with any other starter on the hill, they've gone 22-35 (.386). That's why the Reds' magic number sits at just FOUR! Morton's season (14 starts) has been even worse. He's 1-11 with an 8.61 ERA and the Pirates are 1-13 in those starts. His moneyline mark of minus-$1,159 is better than just THREE other pitchers in all of MLB in 2010 (more than 280 players have made a start this year!). Lohse has allowed a whopping 109 hits in just 76 innings while Morton's allowed 94 hits in 61.2 innings. Since returning to the mound in mid-August, Lohse owns an 8.16 ERA and five of his six starts have gone over (average game score has been 13.5 RPG). As for Morton in his return, he's 0-2 (team is 0-4), posting a 6.75 ERA. Why not go over?" The final score was 11-6 last Wednesday and what should we expect tonight? As Patrick Swayze once said to Demi Moore in the movie Ghost, "ditto!"