Allen Eastman
Kansas City (+7) over Green Bay
I think that this is just too many points for Green Bay to lay out. They may be without Eddie Lacy. And the Packers may have a letdown after their big Sunday Night Football win over Seattle last week. Kansas City is coming off a tough loss to Denver last Thursday. But they were the better team in that game. And they have had a few extra days to get prepared for Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on Monday Night Football while the Packers are just 1-4 ATS. Green Bay has been great at home (34-16 ATS), but now the books have gone too far. The value here is with the underdogs, and I think that Kansas City wants to make up for that Thursday night defeat.
DAVE COKIN
REDS VS NATIONALS
PLAY: REDS +185
There’s no handicapping here. On paper, Max Scherzer has a commanding edge over Brandon Finnegan. And in spite of their disappointing season in terms of falling short of expectations, the Nationals at home are still vastly superior the Reds anyplace.
But it’s also clear that there are problems that go well beyond the results for this Washington entry. I’m not going into an “I told you so” routine as far as the Jonathan Papelbon trade is concerned, even though I did. Long story short, I mentioned that in addition to the team not needing a closer, particularly one they’re now stuck with for big money in 2016, I thought Papelbon might well be a negative in the clubhouse. I will now rest my case.
I’m assuming most of you have now seen the video from yesterday’s Nationals game highlighting the dugout brawl between Papelbon and Bryce Harper. This team is an absolute train wreck right now. They have absolutely nothing to play for, the manager is pretty much a lame duck, and I don’t think there’s any question most of the Nats would probably like it best if the season ended yesterday and they could just call it a day.
The bad news is they have another week of games to play, whether they like it or not. I think you just throw out the stats on the Nats at this point and play against them. Value won’t be an issue as they’re still getting priced like they’re a good team. At this point, they’re anything but a good team. The Nats are a dumpster fire.
The Reds are horrible. They’re going to finish with the second worst record in the NL and the team has been miserable down the stretch. Nevertheless, if I can garner close to a 2:1 return with any team against the Nationals at this point, I think I’m willing to take the plunge. That’s the way I’ll play today, with the Reds getting a rare bet from me.
Jimmy Adams
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -135
At a time in the season where many teams are playing for exercise, this is a huge series for both clubhouses. As of Saturday night, the Cardinals were leading the NL Central by 3 games over the Pirates. Pittsburg will send the red hot J.A. Happ to the hill for the opener. Happ has won 6 of his last 7 decisions, and has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 8 straight starts. He also has good numbers against the Cardinals this season, shutting them out for 7 innings in his lone start against them.
Lance Lynn is a pitcher to fade right now. He has a 6.11 ERA in the month of September, continuously getting rocked. The Red Birds are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. In such a big series, expect the Bucs to take the opener at home.
Scott Spreitzer
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners +122
Houston won the final two games of their huge home series against the Rangers to remain a 1/2 game ahead of the Angels for the final wildcard spot in the AL. But now they're back on the road where they own a 29-46 record, the worst in the American League. In fact, Houston actually started the season with a 15-7 road mark, but have since won just 14 of 53 away from home. The Astros have enjoyed very little success when Lance McCullers toes the road rubber, losing each of his last nine road starts. McCullers has been tagged with a 5.12 ERA & 1.53 WHIP in those outings. The right-hander's lone start at SAFECO this summer did not go well. Seattle will counter with Roenis Elias tonight. The left-hander owns a 1.17 WHIP and .225 BAA in nine home appearances, including eight starts. He's also posted a sub-1.00 HR's per 9 IP ratio at SAFECO. I expect a strong effort against an Astros' lineup that ranks in the bottom-third in road team batting average and OBP this season.
Rob Vinciletti
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels -165
The Angels fit a nice 84% system here tonight that pertains to teams that are home favorites off a 1 run home win vs an opponent like Oakland that is off a 1 run home win. Oakland has lost 7 of the last 8 on the road vs leftys and thats what they will see tonight with H. Santiago who has a solid 2.53 home era. Doubront for Oakland has a 5.65 road Era. Oakland has lost 17 of 24 this month and 4 of 5 on the road off a home loss. Go with the Angels. On Monday the Lead play is a triple perfect 6* Monday night football super system play and a 100% MLB Totals system that averages 12 runs on average. NFL Top totals play cashed easily in Sunday. Jump on now and start the week big with the most powerful data available. For the free play. Take the LA. Angels.
Big Al
A's vs Angels
Pick: Over
Which version of LHP Hector Santiago will show up for the Angels tonight? Will it be the one who started off the month with six innings of near-perfect ball against the Rangers right here in Anaheim on September 6? Or will it be the one who couldn't get through the first inning two starts later in Minnesota against the Twins? As different as those two starts seem on the surface, they do have one thing in common, and that is that the Angels were victorious in both. It seems no matter what Santiago does lately, the Angels bats come out to support him. In his four starts this month, the Angels are 4-0 and have plated 25 runs in the process, or an average of over six runs per start. And the lineup could have a field day tonight against A's LH Felix Doubront. Doubront has put up some pretty ugly lines lately, including two seven-run efforts in his last three trips to the hill. His ERA on the season is now 5.53 in his 14 appearances (12 starts). The over is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings and 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Anaheim.
Art Aronson
Kansas City at Chicago
Prediction: Over
The visitors hand the ball to Yordano Ventura (12-8, 4.40 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits with a walk while striking out four over six innings vs. the Mariners on Wednesday; note that it was the first time in his last three outings that he's been able to make it into the sixth inning. Ventura has been pretty mediocre the last few weeks and owns a poor 5.04 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (7-7, 4.23 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. Hendricks has been all over the map with his performance this season and is 2-3 in front of the home town crowd thus far. Neither starter has impressed of late, so with each coming into this series struggling, the OVER does indeed become worthy of a second look in this particular matchup.
Jim Feist
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have won four straight and seven of their last 10 games. They have opened up a four game lead in the division over the Yankees. Toronto leads the major leagues in runs scored. The Jays finish the regular season on the road and at stake, besides the AL East crown, is home field advantage in the American League. The Jays are tied with the Royals for that spot right now. Toronto has beat up on Baltimore starter Chris Tillman, hitting .407 against him with nine home runs over their previous five meetings. Tillman has struggled overall too, posting a 0-4 mark with a 7.76 ERA in his previous six starts. Marco Estrada starts for the Jays. Estrada is 13-8 with a 3.13 ERA and is 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA in his last five away start. The Blue Jays have too many weapons and a big edge at pitcher.
GoodFella
Pittsburgh -135
These Pirates are still fighting to win the N.L. Central as they sit 3 games behind the Cardinals. We have two SP going in opposite directions this evening. Lance Lynn has been smacked around hard over the last 6 weeks & several current key Pirates have hit him very hard as well. Of course the Cards are missing key pieces from their lineup (mostly Yadier). On the flip side we have JA Happ taking the ball for the Pirates. He has been outstanding since the Pirates traded for him and he has an ERA under 2.50 and a WHIP of 1.00 over the last 5 weeks. I also like the fact that the Cardinals are less potent vs LH pitching & they face a southpaw who has really been on his game the last several weeks. I expect Happ to out-pitch Lynn and hand the ball over to that very strong back end of the bullpen that these Pirates have to close this game out. Bottom line for me here, is I really like the Pirates in this 'spot' tonight, and I have this game lined 15/20 cents higher and I am on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES this evening.
Scott Rickenbach
Kansas City vs. Chicago
Play: Over 8
Two struggling hurlers will be matched up in the Windy City tonight. Yordana Ventura has a 4.86 ERA in his last three starts. Also, the Royals hurler has a 5.04 ERA on the road this seaason and of Ventura's 12 road starts this season, only 4 have resulted in unders. Kyle Hendricks gets the ball for the Cubs tonight. He has a 5.74 ERA in his last three starts. He's been victimized by leaving the ball up in the zone and having trouble with the placement of his pitches. The Royals certainly have a powerful lineup able to take advantage of "mistake pitches". In fact, Kansas City has 89 homers in their games against right-handed starters this season. The Royals are off of a shutout win yesterday that easily stayed under the total but previously 7 of their last 9 games had gone over the total. Perhaps because of mostly having day action on Sundays, the following trend is certainly noteworthy: the Royals have played 16 games on Mondays so far this season and only 3 of the 16 stayed under the total.
Dave Price
Texas Rangers -133
The Texas Rangers want to clinch the AL West as soon as possible. They are 2.5 games up on the Houston Astros and 3 games up on the Los Angeles Angels in the division. Colby Lewis is having a fine season at 17-8 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.204 WHIP, including 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in his last three starts. Lewis pitched 7 shutout innings in a 2-0 win against the Tigers on August 21 in his only start against them this year. Texas is 20-6 in its last 26 home games. The Rangers are 14-3 in their last 17 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Rangers are 5-1 in Lewis' last six home starts.
Jack Jones
Houston Astros -136
The Houston Astros are 2.5 games behind the Texas Rangers for the AL West lead. They are also just 1/2 game ahead of the Los Angeles Angels for the final wild card spot. It's safe to say they'll be motivated for a victory tonight over the Seattle Mariners.
Seattle appears to have packed it in now that it has officially been eliminated from the postseason. It has gone 0-5 in its last five games overall. The Mariners will start Roenis Elias, who is 5-8 with a 3.94 ERA in 18 starts and two relief appearances this season.
Lance McCullers is having a fine rookie season for the Astros. He has gone 5-7 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.177 WHIP with 116 strikeouts over 114 2/3 innings this year. McCullers is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in two career starts against Seattle, while Elias is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in six career starts against Houston.
The Mariners are 2-9 in Elias' last 11 home starts. Seattle is 1-6 in Elias' last seven home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Mariners are 0-5 in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
Brandon Lee
Pittsburgh Pirates -134
Pittsburgh had their 8-game winning streak snapped last night against the Cubs, but I look for them to get right back to their winning ways at home in tonight's huge series opener against the Cardinals. The Pirates are just 3-games back of St Louis for the NL Central lead and a sweep would put them in a great position with the Reds coming to town over the weekend to close out the regular season. Regardless of the fact, I like their chances of winning tonight behind J.A. Happ, who has been a huge surprise for the Pirates. He' s 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA in 9 starts since coming to Pittsburgh in a trade. He threw 7 shutout innings at St Louis on 9/4. Cardinals counter with Lance Lynn, who isn't as good on the road as he is at home and has a 5.34 ERA and 1.527 WHIP in 17 career starts against the Pirates.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Yankees -136
New York is still right in the thick of things in the AL. They trail the Blue Jays by 4 games in the AL East, but have a 4.5-game lead for the Wild Card. The Yankees are close to securing a playoff spot and I look for them to open up their series against the hated Red Sox with a win at home.
New York will be sending out Ivan Nova, who will be making another spot start here. Nova was impressive in his last start on 9/23, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits over 5 2/3 innings at Toronto. Nova wants to show the Yankees he's capable of delivering if they need him in the playoffs, so I expect a strong showing here. Boston counters with Eduardo Rodriguez, who has struggled on the road in the 2nd half. Rodriguez is 0-4 with a 8.53 ERA in 4 road starts since the All-Star break.
Yankees are 14-3 in Nova's last 17 home starts against a team with a losing record and 20-7 in his last 27 starts when their opponent is coming off a game where they allowed 2 runs or less (NY 5-0 L5 as a team in this spot). Red Sox just 5-11 in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning record and 3-10 in their last 13 against the Yankees.