Will Rogers
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -134
The Pirates saw their eight game winning streak halted by Jake Arrieta and the Cubs last night, and they host the Cardinals in Game 1 of a three game series at PNC Park tonight. With the Cardinals holding a three game lead in the NL Central, this series has the potential to decide the division. I like the home team in Game 1.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Pirates hand the ball to J.A. Happ, who has been sharp since coming over from Seattle. Happ (10-8, 3.88 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits over 5 1/3 innings in a win over the Rockies in Colorado in his last start. He won his only start versus the Cardinals, allowing just three hits through seven scoreless innings. St. Louis will counter with Lance Lynn, who has been hit hard by the Pirates. He's 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA in three starts versus Pittsburgh this season, and he's 1-2 with a 6.11 ERA in four starts in September.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Neil Walker is 14-for-38 (.368) with three home runs lifetime versus Lynn.
3. X-Factor - The Cardinals have lost five of their last six in Pittsburgh, and five straight when Lance Lynn starts versus the Pirates.
Jesse Schule
Cardinals vs. Pirates
Play: Over 7
Pittsburgh returns home after winning eight of 10 on the road, and they host the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 1 of a three game series at PNC Park on Monday. The Pirates have narrowed the gap in the standings, trailing St. Louis by just three games. Pittsburgh has won five of it's last six home meetings against the Cardinals, and they will have a favorable matchup on the mound in Game 1. Lance Lynn has a career ERA of 5.75 in 17 starts against Pittsburgh. The Pirates have seen the total go over in six of their last eight home games, and the total has trended over at a rate of 6-2-1 in their last nine games versus St. Louis. We could see plenty of scoring in Game 1 of this series at PNC Park, as this looks like a tough spot for both pitchers. St. Louis is hitting a combined .308 over 93 at bats versus J.A. Happ. Matt Holiday is still working his way back into the lineup after returning from injury. He's hitting .462 with a home run and three RBIs lifetime versus Happ.
SPORTS WAGERS
GREEN BAY -5½ over Kansas City
What you’re going to read and hear about all day is how Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown a pick at home in 18 games and how the Packers seldom lose at Lambeau, especially in prime time games. All of that is true and makes for good reading but it has absolutely nothing to do with what transpires on the field today. We’ll take what we have observed thus far and apply it to this game. Frankly, we couldn’t care less about all that other fluff. What we know for sure is that Rodgers is one of the best we’ve ever seen and few could argue that. Aaron Rodgers is a threat to drive his team to the end zone for six points every time he steps on the field. When you bet against the Packers and Rodgers steps back to pass, one can only hold their breath and pray nothing bad happens. When he doesn’t drive down field and score, it’s surprising. We don’t care about what injuries the Packers have either because injuries are figured into the line.
The market is fully aware that the Chiefs should be 2-0. They built a big lead in Week 1 and put away the Texans 27-20. K.C. subsequently gave away a victory to Denver in Week 2. The Chiefs didn’t just give away that victory last week; they gave it away about five times. The Chiefs put up 147 yards on the ground against perhaps the best run defense in football. They had a 14-0 lead and a 28-14 lead. Play that game over 100 times and K.C. wins it 99 times. While the market may be impressed with the Broncos, we’re not, thus K.C’s “winning performance” against Denver holds no weight with us whatsoever. What holds weight with us is how the rancid Texans held the Chiefs to 12 first downs in Week 1. What holds weight with us is how the Texans put up 396 yards of offense and 24 first downs in only a few possessions. What holds weight with us is how bad Alex Smith is from week to week and how this is a QB mismatch in the Packers favor. Alex Smith did not have a passing TD to a wideout the entire season last year. How can that be? His yards-per-attempt can be measured on a child’s foot. After throwing two picks last week against Denver, Smith will take no risks this week. He is a risk averse QB that goes 20-25 for 82 yards against weak teams. Coach Andy Reid hates passing deep and he hates running the ball. What else is there left for an offense to do? K.C. is a .500 team. They’ll go 7-9, 8-8 or 9-7 just like they do every year. The Chiefs will have some inexplicable losses like the one they had last week on at least two more occasions this year. They’ll also lose to teams with great QB’s and it won’t be close. Aaron Rodgers is a great QB.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND -1½ +141 over Minnesota
We played the Tribe last week in Minnesota in this exact same pitching match-up and it didn’t work out as planned. On that day, Cory Kluber lasted less than four innings while Phil Hughes shutout the Indians in five frames, throwing 66 pitches while allowing just four hits. Now Minnesota is fighting for their playoff lives and the Indians will be highly motivated to get in the way of that. Hughes’ chances of dominating this Cleveland lineup again are slim at best. Hughes missed more than a month with a back injury and has only made two starts since returning. In those two starts, he has thrown a maximum of 66 pitches. He will be on a somewhat limited pitch count again today, as the Twins are playing it very safe with him but it’s still his fifth start against the Indians this season with only the last one resulting in a quality start. In the other three games against Cleveland, Hughes has been tagged for 27 hits and 15 earned runs in 16 innings combined.
Cory Kluber has thrown two clunkers on paper since coming back from a 14-day stint on the DL. We say on paper because his xERA over those two starts was 3.04. Kluber continues to deal it with a BB/K split of 5/17 over his last 14 frames. He also posted a 15% swing and miss rate over those two starts back but an extremely unlucky 48% hit rate did him in. Prior to that, the last time Kluber faced the Twins he threw a complete game 1-hitter against them. Kluber figures to be sharp and fresh. He’s only thrown 133 pitches in September and just 72 in his last start. The Indians have been one of the best hitting teams at home against righties since the All-Star break and they’ll get their fifth look this season against one of the league’s most hittable right-handers.
Detroit +127 over TEXAS
The Ballpark in Arlington will be packed, as the Rangers try to clinch the AL West title in the final week of the season. When you wager on these highly motivated teams looking to clinch, you are always going to pay an inflated price. Thing is, the opposition is just as motivated to not let that occur on their watch and they’re also playing under less pressure. Setting that aside, Colby Lewis is a very risky favorite under any circumstance. Lewis has some nice surface stats lately with a 1.71 ERA over his last three starts over 21 frames. That mark also raises his value in the market. However, those three starts came against the A’s twice and the laboring Astros once. Lewis brings a 4.26 xERA over his last five starts to this one. His xERA in his last start was 5.49. His batted ball profile of 32% grounders, 29% line-drives and 39% fly-balls over his last five starts tells the story of a pitcher that is getting hit hard but those balls are landing in the gloves of the fielders behind him. Lewis brings 87.4 mph heat. He has 17 K’s over his last 32 frames covering five starts. His 17 wins this year is a direct result of robust run support and a few good outings. For the most part, Colby Lewis has been one of the games’ most fortunate pitchers this year and it’s only a matter of time before those hard hit balls find some gaps.
Count Justin Verlander among a group of deteriorated veterans we wanted nothing to do with in 2015. His 2014 was useless for betting purposes, marred by an abdominal injury he likely never fully recovered from, another lost tick on his heater, and decreased whiff rates across his secondary arsenal. As if that weren’t enough to warrant avoidance, Verlander opened 2015 on the disabled list with a triceps strain and his first six starts after returning were an abomination; he racked up a 6.62 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 5.82 K/9 in that span. An August 4th dud notwithstanding, Verlander has experienced a remarkable turnaround since mid-July, pitching to a 2.89 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9 over 13 starts. Verlander has been learning how to pitch with diminished velocity for more than a calendar year now although his heater still touches 93-94 mph. He has learned to sequence his pitches well and keep hitters off-balance. His 12.2% swing and miss rate, 63% first pitch strike rate, and 33% ball % all support his rejuvenated command. Maybe Justin Verlander and the Tigers go down here and if that happens, so be it. What we know for certain is we’re going with the best of it by backing Verlander at this price against a vastly inferior Colby Lewis.
SEATTLE +127 over Houston
Houston is a half-game ahead of the Angels and 1½-games in front of Minnesota in the Wild-Card standings. The Astros trail first-place Texas by 2½ games in the division race. The Astros have also played their final home game of the regular season. The Astronauts final six road games will decide whether or not they get in and it all begins here. If you bet the Astros here you are paying a serious premium to do so because the market overvalues these teams in must-win games. Frankly, we’re not even convinced that Houston should be favored here. For one, the Astros have had about as much success on the road lately as the Atlanta Braves. Houston has 14 road wins in its last 53 contests. That alone makes the Mariners worthy of a play.
Seattle is going to treat this series like it is the playoffs. They’ll get a huge amount of satisfaction taking down this young Astros club and preventing them from going to the playoffs. Furthermore, Roenis Elias has allowed three runs over his last three starts. Elias gets plenty of swings and misses with his change-up and curve ball. He gets a bunch of grounders too, 51.4% to be exact but his line-drive rate of 15% over his last 10 starts reveals that hitters are having nothing but difficulty squaring up on him. Elias has nothing but upside and he's in great form.
Houston’s Lance McCullers is absolutely a decent pitcher. He has a great future ahead of him and he’s been high on our radar all season. However, in terms of value, we cannot overstate enough how overpriced the Astros are here. That guarantees us nothing because it’s one baseball game in which anything can happen. In the long run, there is nothing but profit to be made in playing against overvalued teams and/or pitchers, which absolutely applies here. This is the biggest overlay on today’s MLB card.
Power Sports
Oakland vs. LA Angels
Pick: Oakland -1.5
As you know, one-run games have not been kind to the Athletics this season. Including Sunday's 5-4 loss to the Giants, they are now a woeful 18-33 in them. But of course, that's where the run line can come in handy. While Oakland dropped two of three to San Francisco over the weekend, the results clearly could have been better as they actually blew an 8-4 lead in Saturday's 14-10 loss (I was actually on the Giants there). The Angels, winners of five straight and now just one-half game back of the Astros for the Wild Card, have been a somewhat lucky team of late. Four of the five wins during the current streak have been by exactly one run. Again, the +1.5 can come in quite handy. It's certainly worth laying the juice for in this situation.
Looking at tonight's pitching matchup, you might struggle to find a reason to give the A's Felix Doubront the edge over the Angels' Hector Santiago. But Doubront did outpitch Santiago last month in an 11-5 win. Santiago lasted only 2 2/3 innings in that one and quite simply, there have been a number of outings this year where he's failed to go deep. Just two starts ago, he couldn't even make it out of the first inning and allowed 5 ER. The Angels have the best record in one-run games among AL teams while Oakland is the worst in all of MLB. Whether that pattern were to continue or we see regression to the mean, both would be in Oakland's favor. I don't see the A's doing any worse than a one-run loss here.
Vegas Butcher
Kansas City Chiefs +6
I expect the Chiefs to be very competitive in this game. Everyone is aware of Andy Reid's record coming off a BYE: 14-2 in his 16 seasons in the league. That's as good as it gets, and though the sample size might be considered 'small' by some, 16 games is a full NFL season. I know the Chiefs are NOT off a BYE per say, but they did have 11-days to prepare for this game. This team could have been 2-0 to start the season, but inexplicable mistakes (Jammal Charles I'm looking at you!) led to a last second loss last week against Denver. I expect a strong bounce-back tonight. Taking into consideration Andy Reid's record when he has extra time to prepare and a motivated Chiefs squad (not sure how you can NOT be after that debacle last week), and you have the makings of a strong game from the visitors.
Green Bay of course is a tough 'out' especially at home. This team is coming off a big 'revenge type' of a game against the Seahawks, but they better not be taking the Chiefs lightly. A couple of key factors going against them. First, Eddie Lacy and Davante Adams are coming off ankle injuries, and though both will play, not sure how close they will be to 100%. The bigger concern is the injury to Bulaga, Green Bay's RT, who is probably their best O-lineman. People like to talk about pass-rushing dynamos like JJ Watt and Von Miller, but Justin Houston is on the same level if not better. He also operates on the left side on D, the same side that Bulaga would have been protecting on offense. Rodgers is awesome and gets rid of the ball quickly, but sometimes he tries to hold on to the ball a tad too long as well, trying to extend plays. He does that a few times today and Houston can turn the game around on a dime. If the Packers fail to run the ball effectively with Lacy (if he's as ineffective as I think he'll be), then the Houston pass rush will have a chance to be an even bigger difference-maker in this matchup. I think KC can hold their own defensively in this one.
On the other side, you have a pretty good KC offense going up against a Green Bay D that ranks 22nd after 2 weeks. The bigger concern is Green Bay's 32nd ranking against the run. If Charles is gashing this unit all day, it could be a very long day for the Packers' D. They're missing a couple of run-stopping defenders (Boyd, Barrington) already, and will also be without Morgan Burnett for this one, who ranked as the TOP defender against the run for the Packers last year and 4th most important overall (PFF). I think Charles should be expected to have a huge game today. Obviously success of the run game will enable Maclin and Kelce to have much more room down the field, and I expect Smith to play well here as well.
Expect KC to control the ball on offense, keep Rodgers off the field, and let their pass-rushers try to make big plays in this game. Chiefs play against Manning and Rivers twice each year, though neither is as good as Rodgers, both are still considered elite QB's in today's game. Kansas City has experience playing against excellent QB's in the division, and I think Reid and Co. can devise a strong scheme to make Rodgers at least 'uncomfortable' tonight. Regardless, 6 points is too many here and I predict a close game.
Coach Fletcher
Pittsburgh Pirates -137
Three games separate these teams as we head to the end of the regular season.
The Pitchers
Lynn, Cardinals
Lynn is 12-10 with a 3.16 era on the season. In Lynn’s last start he threw 6 shutout innings. Lynn is 5-5 on the road with a 3.43 era. He’s 1-1 with a 3.52 era over his last 3 games. The consistent Lynn was 3-3 with a 3.86 era over his last 7 and 7-6 with a 3.60 era in his last 15. He’s been touched up for 6 runs in his last 15 1/3 innings. What is more concerning to Cards fans is his record against the Pirates. Lynn is 5-6 lifetime with a 5.34 era. In his last start against the Pirates Lynn didn’t even make it out of the first inning, giving up 6 hits and 7 runs, 3 earned, in 2/3 of an inning. In his last start at Pittsburg Lynn was rocked for 5 runs and 9 hits in 4 innings.
Happ, Pirates
Happ is one of the feel good stories of the year in baseball. Happ was not effective when pitching for the Seattle Mariners this year. But once traded to the Bucs, he became a new man. Happ has improved to 10-8 with a 3.91 era. In his last 7 starts Happ is 6-1 with a 1.73 era. He’s pitched 41 2/3 innings and given up only 7 walks while fanning 45. He’s given up 2 bombs. At home he’s 4-4 with a 3.06 era overall. In his last 3 starts Happ is 2-1 with a 3.71 era. Don’t be concerned when someone tells you that Happ is 2-8 with a 6.00 era against the Cards. He’s had one start against them since 2012, that came in early September. Happ held the Cards scoreless on 3 hits in 7 innings.
The Bullpens
Cardinals – 2.98 era on the road ; 61 saves and 14 blown saves
Pirates – 2.31 era at home ; 54 saves and 13 blown saves
I’m giving the Pirates the edge in starting pitching and the pen.
The Hitters
Cardinals
The Cards score 4.0 runs per game and give up just 3.2. They average 4.2 on the road and 4.0 against LHP. In the past 7 games they have averaged 4.9 runs per game. They average 4.2 at night and just 4.0 in division. Their overall batting average is .255 and they hit .247 on the road. In their last 3 game series, against the Brewers, the Cards averaged 4.0 runs per game.
Pirates
The Pirates average 4.3 runs per game and allow 3.7 runs per game. They average 4.3 at home and 4.4 versus RHP. They’ve averaged 5.7 in their last 7 games. They average 4.4 at night and 4.0 against division. Their overall batting average is .262 and is the same at home. In their last series, playing the Cubs for 3, they averaged 2.33 runs per game.
I’m not concerned about the lack of runs against the Cubs. No one scores off Arrieta.
Odds and Ends
The Cards are 99-57 and the Bucs are 95-61.
The Cards have a plus 0.8 run differential. The Bucs are plus 0.6.
The Cards are 13-15 as road dogs between +100/+150. The Pirates are 16-6 as home favs _125/-150.
The Cards are 44-31 on the road. The Pirates are 50-25 at home.
The Cards are 14-11 in September. The Bucs are 16-11.
The Cards are 45-28 against division. The Bucs are 31-39.
The Cards are 70-39 at night. The Bucs are 66-45.
The Cards are 24-18 vs LHP. The Bucs are 75-47 against RHP.
The Cards are 59-43 against teams w/winning records. The Bucs are 72-45.
Coach’s Conclusion:
Any way you look at it, these are 2 good teams. I like the Pirates because I think they are playing better. The Cards have won 9 of their last 13. 7 of those games were against the Brewers and 3 were against the Reds and the Cubs. They lost 2 of 3 to the Cubs.
The Pirates have won 9 of their last 14. Of those 14, 7 were against the Cubs and 3 were against the Dodgers. They had 4 against the Rockies and won all 4. The Cubs faced Lester twice, Hammel twice and Arrieta twice. They faced Greinke and Kershaw as well. They were 5 and 5 in those contents.
The Cards are 31-28 in this series the last 3 years. This year they have split 16 games. But Pittsburgh is 19-9 against the Cards in Pittsburgh the past 3 years and 5-2 this year. I’m taking the Bucs.
Wunderdog
St. Louis @ Pittsburgh
Pick: St. Louis +130
The last week of the MLB season often has teams trying to secure a playoff spot, and others that have been eliminated quite some time ago. Today in the newsletter we will take a peak at how some of these elite teams finish the season, from game 155 to game 161 (game 162 has its own rules, the finale).
The first thing needed to do is establish what exactly an elite team is? The situation here calls for a team heading into the final week of the regular season with more than 90 wins. Let's set up exactly when they are a punching bag for bettors:
1) Play against team has greater than 90 wins
2) Play against team is a favorite of less than -175
3) Total is less than 9.5
4) Final week of the season game number 156-161 (season finale not applicable)
These elite favorites have fallen very hard at 45-72 to an average line of -140! Playing against them has yielded a 72-45 record to an average line of +130, which represents an ROI of +42.2% and has had 11 straight winning seasons! Winning 61.5% of bets at +130 odds is unheard of! Until now!
St. Louis has over 90 wins, and when that has been the case, the favorite is 3-8, even worse! Make the play on St. Louis.
Bob Balfe
Angels -1.5 +110
The Angels are the hottest team in baseball right now playing the worst team in the American League. This is a game in which they must win and are playing a team that checked out months ago. I don’t like playing money lines this high so we will go with the run line. The Angels have to win by 2 or more runs and at home with this crowd I like them to win big. Take the Angels -1.5 +110
Harry Bondi
Kansas City / Green Bay Over 48.5
We have been riding Green Bay OVER the posted number at home the last year and the Pack have paid off going 7-3 OVER their last 10 at Lambeau. Green Bay is also an amazing 12-1 ATS OVER the total vs non-division opponents. Finally, 4 of the last 5 times the Chiefs and Packers have squared off the OVER has cashed. Shootout on Monday night.
Tony Finn
Green Bay -5.5
After a solid 2-0 start to the season and last week's revenge victory over the Seattle Seahawks one would think that there could be a letdown for the Monday Night experience in Green Bay tonight when the Kansas City Chiefs visit Lambeau Field. However, this is Monday Night Football, and the Pack stayed home all week after their Week #2 win over the Seahawks, and mostly there won't be any letdown from a group of Green Bay players, coaches and fans that will be celebrating the Packers’ Super Bowl I victory and while the Chiefs were the victim of that Packers Super Bowl I win, it means little to this current group of players, and coaches for that matter.
The Packers received an extra day of rest for the injured, e.g. RB Eddie Lacy and while this Chiefs team is 1-1, many believing they should be 2-0, they are simply not anything more than a pedestrian bunch that are, save last week, well coached.
This game tonight means mucho to the Packers, their staff, and the alum that are still alive and at the game, with the Super Bowl I party. Kansas City was beaten by Houston if it were not for turnovers and special teams play and even though many believe they BLEW last weeks' game against Denver in the home loss luck was on both sides of the field and KC simply made poor decision and didn't execute when they had too, this goes for the coaching staff and the players. KC was outgained and outplayed by a Houston team that made two bad decision that cost them 14 points and the game.
While Kansas City has the defensive line and the edge rush to pressure Aaron Rodgers they are trying to pressure a quarterback that is a cool at the "other side of the pillow" especially at home.
There isn't a larger home field advantage in football, in our opinion and according to the Finn Factor Charts, than that of Lambeau Field and the letdown in this contest resides more on the Kansas City sideline than that of Green Bay. The last-second home loss to hated Denver and their field general, Peyton Manning, will be a difficult bounce back when playing on strange NFC turf like Lambeau where they face a motivated and rested unbeaten Green Bay Packers squad who have won nine in a row at home.
“We have a home-field advantage that’s growing," Rodgers told the Wisconsin media this week. "We’ve started fast as well at home the last couple of years, so we’ve been able to make teams one-dimensional on the other side.”
We stated early in August that in games where you make them (Kansas City Chiefs) a one-dimensional squad, pressuring the Chiefs into being an old Eagles scheme throw-the-ball around the field type of team... then you have them right where you want them. Alex Smith and company are not built to be a home run team, and desperately need to be able to run the football to be effective offensively.
Kansas City was on the verge of a 2-0 start before allowing a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute, with the game-winner coming on the return of a fumble by Jamaal Charles. "It was pretty simple," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. "Five turnovers and 70 yards on penalties. ... We'll feel this one."
And despite the fact that the Chiefs have had a full week to forget about this home loss to the Broncos, they haven't and they won't if Green Bay finds a way to turn the KC offensive over or take an early lead. At this point KC loses any "good feeling", if they had one entering this contest.
Chiefs All Pro running back, Charles, had a big game with 125 yards on 21 carries against the Broncos stout defense but it went out the window when he fumbled with less than a minute to go in last Thursday's contest. Remember just how dink and dunk this Chiefs offense is; Kansas City, which has gone 18 consecutive games without a touchdown pass to a wide receiver.
Defensively, the Chiefs are tied for second in the league with eight sacks , but being a force on the road in Lambeau, when the defense doesn't have the luxury of a home crowd badgering the offensive snap count, isn't an advantage. Additionally, there will be no exploiting the Packers loss of standout offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga, as the team has now had two-plus weeks to work around the loss of his talent and experience.
The Packers did lose Rodgers favorite and most dangerous wide out, Jordy Nelson, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason. The team also was without running back Eddie Lacy last week when the tailback left the game with an ankle injury. Lacy was on the practice field Friday and is by all reports available for tonight's contest.
Additionally, this is a Packers team that beat a porous Bears unit in Week #1 and took revenge on the Seahawks in Week #2, and is undefeated despite only seeing Rodgers record 219 yards passing, on average, in the team's first two games. However, the yardage isn't key in tonight's affair as when necessary, in the Red Zone, few are better than Rodgers, even better at Lambeau, as he has five touchdown passes versus zero interceptions.
All week the Green Bay staff has been telling their crew they will be at their best because of the reunion of Super Bowl 1, and the fact they don't like that the Chiefs have won six of the last seven meetings, including a 19-14 victory in 2011 that ended Green Bay's perfect 13-0 start to the season, to this Kansas City crew.
How good has Rodgers been at home with the crowd noise behind him and little to no distractions from defensive lines? The Green Bay quarterback does not have an interception over 545 attempts in last 18 home games (playoffs included), throwing 43 TDs passes in that span.
Green Bay is 7-1-1 as regular season home favorite over the last 9 home games.
Sports Data Query Group
Kansas City +105
The Cubs are bound to suffer a let down after last nights win against a divisional rival. The Royals have shown us enough to back them. Kansas City is 9-0 on the road when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a home win in which they never trailed and 11-0 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they drew one or fewer walks and they are not facing the same opponent.
The Royals have won these eleven games by an average of 3.64 runs -- many as a dog.
Kansas City is also a confident 5-0 on the road when they came back from a deficit to win in their starters last start. The were the dog in each of the last two and they won each by three-plus runs.
The Royals have the talent and mental fitness to take advantage of the Cubs in this vulnerable spot.
OC Dooley
Royals / Cubs Over 8
This is a make-up of an earlier rainout which gives the Cubs essentially one “extra” game at HOME where young slugger Kris Bryant can make history. Last night’s ESPN nationally televised contest was supposed to be Chicago’s home finale in what turned into an extremely low scoring 4-0 final verdict where ace Jake Arrieta made his latest attempt to secure a Cy Young award. After allowing just ONE hit last night through 7 brilliant innings (racked up 9 strikeout victims along the way) Arrieta lowered his season long ERA (1.82) which is BELOW the TWO mark. Odds are Chicago will not get such a stellar outing from Kyle Hendricks even though he took a perfect game into the 5th inning of his most recent mound assignment. Kansas City’s Yordano Ventura actually pitched at Chicago’s Wrigley Field (back in late May) when the winds were blowing IN and he promptly permitted just “one” run. Even though the winds are relatively on the light side tonight this time around they are blowing OUT so I do not expect Ventura to be nearly as effective. For those with access to this contest keep an eye out for Kansas City infielder Mike Moustakas who in the past couple of weeks has put up statistics (5 homers and 15 RBI) that are eye opening. But the big news is Cubs rookie Kris Bryant who is just ONE shy of the 100 RBI plateau. To put this in perspective Bryant (blistering .452 batting average spanning the past nine games) the last time a “rookie” reached 100 RBI was Ryan Zimmerman way back in 2006. I am aware the Cubs have 5-0 “under” in the past five games (only a combined 11 runs generated) but that has only kept tonight’s total in relative check