SPORTS ADVISORS
Carolina (0-2 SU and ATS) at Dallas (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Panthers face a tough task if they are to avoid starting 0-3 for the first time since 1998, as they head to the new Cowboys Stadium to take on Dallas.
Carolina fell 28-20 in Atlanta last week as a six-point underdog after a Week 1 blowout home loss to the Eagles, 38-10 as a one-point pup. The Panthers rank 30th in the league in points-allowed (33 per game), and the defense has registered just two sacks while yielding 168 rushing yards per game through the first two weeks. Offensively, QB Jake Delhomme threw four INTs and lost a fumble in the season-opening loss to the Eagles, but rebounded and played well in Atlanta, throwing for 308 yards and a TD. However, his interception with 2½ minutes left ended the Panthers’ comeback hopes.
Dallas lost a thriller to the Giants a week ago, falling 33-31 as a three-point home favorite, when New York kicker Lawrence Tynes nailed a 37-yarder as time expired to ruin the Cowboys first regular-season game in the new $1.15 billion Cowboys Stadium. Dallas rushed for a 251 yards, but QB Tony Romo was a disaster, completing just 13 of 29 passes for 127 yards with one TD and three INTs, all of which resulted New York touchdowns. Overall, the Cowboys had four turnovers that led to 24 points for the Giants.
Romo’s put up his lowest passing yardage total and second-lowest passer rating (29.6) of his career as a starter. Meanwhile, Dallas’ defense has given up 877 yards in the first two games, third worst in the NFL, and the Cowboys are the only team yet to record a sack or force a turnover.
The Cowboys have won seven straight regular-season games (4-2-1 ATS) over Carolina, but lost to the Panthers in their January 2004 playoff matchup 29-10 as a three-point underdog in Carolina.
The Panthers are on ATS downfalls of 1-6 as an underdog (1-5 as a road pup), 1-4 vs. NFC teams and 4-9-1 in September. Dallas has failed to cash in four straight Monday night games, but otherwise is on positive ATS runs of 6-2 as a favorite, 8-3 in September, 5-2 against NFC squads and 17-8-1 following a SU loss.
Under the lights on Monday, Carolina is 15-9 SU (15-8-1 ATS) all-time, while the Cowboys are 37-28 SU (28-36-1 ATS).
Other than the Panthers 22-10-2 “under” run in September, both these teams have been nailing “over” tickets lately. Carolina is on “over” runs of 8-2 overall, 9-1 vs. NFC teams, 5-0 after an ATS loss and 4-0 as a road underdog. Dallas is on a plethora of “over” streaks that include 4-0 overall, 7-1 in Week 3, 7-2-1 on Monday and 4-1 in September. The “over” has also been the play in four of the last five in this series.
Finally, all three Monday night contests this season have topped the posted total, and the over is 14-4-1 in Monday Night Football since the start of last season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (83-73) at Atlanta (85-70)
After a perfect six-game road trip, the Braves return home looking to keep the pressure on Colorado in the wild-card race, with Jair Jurrjens (13-10, 2.70 ERA) slated to take the mound for the home team against the Marlins and Anibal Sanchez (3-7, 3.96).
Atlanta scored three runs in the 10th inning Sunday and beat Washington 6-3 to cap its 6-0 road trip, with all six victories coming by multiple runs against N.L. East rivals (Mets and Nats). The Braves are on a 14-2 run (4-2 at home), but still trail the Rockies by 2½ games in the wild-card race. Bobby Cox’s club is on additional surges of 12-1 as a favorite, 5-1 in series openers and 4-1 on Monday.
Florida got blanked 4-0 by the Mets on Sunday and has split its last 10 contests to fall five games off the pace in the wild-card chase. The Marlins have lost five straight series openers, but are otherwise on positive streaks of 7-3 on the road, 7-3 on Monday, 11-5 in N.L. East play and 5-0 as an underdog.
The Marlins hold a slim 8-7 lead in this year’s season series with the Braves, and the road team has won nine of the 15 contests. However, dating back several years, Florida is in a 17-35 rut at Turner Field (4-2 this year).
Sanchez is coming off Tuesday’s dominating 3-0 home win over the Phillies, scattering just two hits and two walks over eight scoreless innings. The right-hander has been strong lately, giving up three earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts, but he’s pitched six innings or more just three times during this stretch.
The Marlins are 1-5 in Sanchez’s last six road starts, 1-4 in his last five as a pup and 0-4 in his last four Monday outings. He’s 2-4 with a 4.72 ERA in seven road starts this season and 3-4 with a 4.63 ERA in eight career starts against the Braves (2-2, 4.15 ERA in four starts versus Atlanta this season).
Jurrjens has delivered eight consecutive quality starts, allowing two earned runs or fewer in seven of those contests. The right-hander has been incredible over his last three trips to the mound, going 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA (two earned runs allowed in 22 innings). He won 3-1 at the Mets on Tuesday, allowing a run on five hits in seven innings.
With Jurrjens pitching, the Braves are on runs of 9-4 against N.L. East foes, but 1-4 as a home chalk, 0-4 on Monday and 1-10 in series openers. He’s 6-6 in 16 home starts this year despite a solid 2.66 ERA, but he’s 2-1 with a bloated 5.46 ERA in five career starts against Florida.
The under is 5-0-1 in Florida’s last six road games, and with Sanchez on the hill, the “under” is on runs of 4-1 overall, 15-5-2 on the road, 8-2-1 against the N.L. East, 3-0-1 versus the Braves and 4-0-1 when he pitches in Atlanta. Meanwhile, the over is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five at home and 6-3 in its nine against right-handed starters, but behind Jurrjens, the Braves are on “under” tears of 5-1 overall, 5-0 on Monday, 18-3 in series openers and 7-2 versus teams with a winning record.
Finally, the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight Marlins-Braves clashes at Turner Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (81-74) at Detroit (83-72)
The top two teams in the A.L. Central begin a crucial four-game series that likely will determine the division winner, with Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.23 ERA) taking the ball for the Twins against the Tigers’ Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.14) at Comerica Park.
Minnesota saw its five-game winning skid halted by the Royals’ Zack Greinke on Sunday, but the Twins kept pace with the Tigers, who fell 8-4 at the White Sox. Detroit leads the division by two games with each squad having seven games remaining.
Although their winning streak ended yesterday, the Twins have used an 11-2 surge to climb back into the playoff race. They’re on additional runs of 5-1 on the road, 4-1 as an underdog, 5-0 on Monday, 20-7 versus right-handed starters and 16-6 in A.L. Central battles.
Despite Sunday’s setback in Chicago, Detroit still ended a nine-game road trip by winning five of the final seven games (all against right-handed starters and all against divisional foes). Jim Leyland’s squad is on upticks of 33-15 at home and 23-10 at home against righty starters, but the Tigers have dropped 21 of 31 on Monday.
The Twins are 9-5 against Detroit this season, with the host taking 10 of the 14 meetings.
Blackburn is coming off consecutive easy wins over the Indians (7-3 at home) and White Sox (7-0 on the road), giving up a total of two runs on 16 hits with no walks allowed in 13 1/3 innings (1.35 ERA). The right-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, though Minnesota is just 4-3 over this stretch. In fact, behind Blackburn, the Twins are in funks of 4-9 overall, 7-20 on the highway, 4-12 as an underdog, 2-6 on Monday, 5-12 versus winning teams and 0-12 on the road against winning clubs.
Blackburn is 4-7 with a 4.07 ERA in 16 road efforts this year and 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA in six appearances (five starts) against the Tigers (1-1, 5.11 ERA in two starts this season).
Porcello is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three trips to the mound, including Wednesday’s 11-3 rout at Cleveland, with the right-hander allowing a run in five innings. With Porcello hurling, Detroit is on positive runs of 17-8 overall, 5-0 at home, 14-5 as a favorite and 6-1 as a home chalk.
Porcello is 8-3 with a 4.07 ERA in 14 starts at Comerica this season (11 of which the Tigers have won), and the rookie has faced the Twins three times, going 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA.
Behind Blackburn, the Twins are on “under” runs of 5-2 overall, 15-5-1 on the road, 4-1 on Monday, 20-7-1 against the A.L. Central and 4-0 when facing the Tigers. Meanwhile, the under is 7-2-1 in Porcello’s last 10 when opening a series and 8-3 in his last 11 versus divisional rivals.
As a team, Minnesota is on “under” surges of 18-6-4 overall, 8-2-1 in series openers, 12-2-2 against right-handed starters and 6-2-2 as an underdog, though the Twins have topped the total in four of five on the road (all within the division). Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “over” runs of 6-1 at home, 10-2-1 as a chalk, 5-0 on Monday and 8-2-1 against right-handed starters. Finally, the over is 3-1-1 in the last five series meetings at Comerica Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
DUNKEL
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
The Indians look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 3-12 in its last 15 road games when the total is set between 9 ant 10 1/2 runs. Cleveland is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+130)
Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.110; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.904
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 903-904: NY Mets at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Figueroa) 14.673; Washington (Detwiler) 13.715
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+100); Over
Game 905-906: Houston at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Lopez) 13.781; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.481
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 907-908: Florida at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 14.107; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 16.232
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-175); Under
Game 909-910: Kansas City at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 16.396; NY Yankees (Gaudin) 16.121
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 911-912: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 13.951; Cleveland (Laffey) 15.140
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+130); Over
Game 913-914: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.329; Detroit (Porcello) 16.049
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130); Over
Game 915-916: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hendrickson) 12.661; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.042
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-230); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-230); Over
Game 917-918: Toronto at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Richmond) 15.837; Boston (Beckett) 17.166
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-260); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-260); Under
Game 919-920: Texas at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Hunter) 15.437; LA Angels (Santana) 15.717
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-165); Under
NFL
Carolina at Dallas
The Panthers look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games following a SU loss. Carolina is the pick (+9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Dallas favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+9 1/2)
Game 431-432: Carolina at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 135.150; Dallas 139.050
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 4; 45
Vegas Line: Dallas by 9 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+9 1/2); Under
Rob Vinciletti
Texas Rangers vs. LAA Angels
Play: Texas Rangers
The Rangers chances at the playoffs are coming to an end rather quickly these days. Sundays loss to Tampa Bay did not help the cause as the Rangers blew the game in the ninth inning. Tonight the Rangers go to LA. to face the Angels. They have beaten LA 10 of 15 times this year. Despite the bad loss the Rangers have been tearing it up at the plate scoring over 7 runs per game over the past week. Tonight they have T.Hunter taking the mound and he has been decent with a 4.12 road era. The Angels counter with E.Santana. In his home starts this year Santans has been sub par with a 7.10 era. The Angels are 3-7 in his home starts and Santana has allowed 13 runs and 17 hits including, 5 home runs in just short of 10 innings at home vs Texas. The Angels also qualify in a 70% system that plays against certain home teams off a home win scoring 5 or more runs vs an opponent off a home loss also scoring 5+ runs.
Carlo Campanella
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Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys
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Prefer to take more than a Touchdown with a Carolina squad that finally seemed to pull things together offensively last Sunday as QB Delhomme passed for 308 yards against a tough Falcons defense. Knowing that Dallas QB Romo is making many bad throws early this season (Tossed 4 Interceptions at home against the NY Giants last Sunday night), might be tough for Dallas to cover the spread as we find them at 1-6 ATS on Monday Night Football following a loss. Dallas is America's team, and they'll get plenty of backing from the betting public, but they're 0-4 ATS during their last four appearances on Monday Night Football and had also failed to cover at home against the Giants on National TV on Sunday Night Football!
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7* Play On Carolina
Tony Mathews
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Baltimore/Tampa Bay Over 9.5
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The Baltimore Orioles will use starting pitcher Mark Hendrickson. Mark Hendrickson has been having huge pitching problems as of late. In fact, Mark Hendrickson has a 7.15 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Mark Hendrickson giving up many runs once again today.
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The Tampa Bay Rays will use starting pitcher Jeff Niemann. Jeff Niemann has also been having pitching problems as of late. In fact, Jeff Niemann has a 5.00 ERA in his last 3 starts. We also see Jeff Niemann giving up may runs once again today.
Trend: The Over is 8-2-1 in the Baltimore Orioles last 11 road games.
Trend: The Over is 12-4-1 in Baltimore Orioles last 17 games as an underdog.
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The bottom line, we should see many runs scored today!
Take the Baltimore Orioles/Tampa Bay Rays Over 9.5
EZWINNERS
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Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
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Philadelphia's starting pitcher Cole Hamels is currently having his best stretch of pitching of a very disappointing 2009 season. Hamels is 2-0 in his last three starts with an ERA of 2.49 and appears to be heating up just in time for the playoffs. Pitching against Houston is a great match up for Hamels. The Astros are in a tail spin losing nine out of their last ten games and owner Drayton McLane fired their manager Cecil Cooper last week. The Phillies are 5-1 in Hamels' last six starts against the Astros. Play Philadelphia on the run line.
JIM FEIST
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BALTIMORE ORIOLES / TAMPA BAY RAYS
TAKE: OVER
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Disappointing season for the Rays after their Cinderella season in 2008. Still, the Rays are fifth in the AL in runs/game (4.93) and fifth in Home Runs (189). Well traveled Mark Hendrickson starts for the Orioles. Mostly Hendrickson has been pitching out of the pen, but he did start last time out at Toronto and pitched well, though he isn't likely to deep into any game at this point. Jeff Niemann starts for the Rays and he's had a fine season with a 12-6 mark and 3.81 ERA. Niemann had a rough outing two starts ago against these Orioles, allowing 11 hits and six earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Two teams here that have more hitting than pitching. Don't expect either starter to make it much past the sixth inning here and that means bullpens and both pens have been less than stellar this season. Take the OVER and enjoy the runs.
DAVE COKIN
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TEXAS RANGERS / LOS ANGELES ANGELS
TAKE: TEXAS RANGERS"
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The Rangers are still clinging to hope for a miracle as far as the playoffs are concerned. They have a good chance to pick up a needed win tonight. Tommy Hunter has been a real find for Texas and I have to give him the edge here as Ervin Santana has really scuffled at home for the Halos. I'll lean to the Rangers to score the win over the Angels tonight.
BIG AL
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New York at Washington
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There aren't too many positive milestones for the Nationals to reach for the remainder of the season, but one which would no doubt be sweet would be if they could get rookie lefthander Ross Detwiler his first Major League win. This is Detwiler's second year in the majors, and although he only threw one inning in 2008, the 23-year-old has over 64 innings in 13 appearances (12 starts) for 2009 and is 0-6 with this and possibly the last game of the season being his only chances to register a victory. There is no doubt that at least part of Detwiler's problem is the same as every other Nats starter - a severe lack of run support. The Mets will hand the ball to righthander Nelson Figueroa for his ninth start of the season. At first glance we'd be very tempted to like Detwiler's chances tonight as the Mets are 1-7 in Figueroa's starts this season. But take a look at who Figueroa has been facing lately, and you will notice that his last six starts have all been against teams with winning records so the Nats will be the first losing team that Figueroa has started against since early August. At 35 years old, Figueroa is no youngster like Detwiler, but one thing he has in common with the rookie southpaw is a lack of support from his offensive team-mates. In the veteran's last six starts, New York has only managed a total of 14 runs.
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PLAY UNDER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Florida at ATLANTA
We are on a 39-24-4 comp play run the last 67 days.
For Monday in baseball, we will go with the UNDER between the Marlins and the Braves.
Both teams come in a with a trend towards the OVER of late, but tonight those trends will be halted as Sanchez and Vazquez have at it.
Sanchez has allowed just 5 runs his last 18 innings of work, while Vazquez has allowed just 2 runs his last 22 innings of work.
4 of the 6 meetings this year between the teams in Atlanta have played UNDER the posted total, and the Marlins are on a 15-5-2 UNDER run the last 22 times Sanchez has started on the road.
The Braves are right there for a shot at the wild card spot, and tonight Javier Vazquez makes life tough on the Marlins hitters.
We like a low-scoring game tonight in Atlanta.
Play on the UNDER.
4♦ UNDER
Jeff Benton
Florida at ATLANTA
I’m snapping out of this ridiculous free-play slump Monday as I go back to the baseball diamond and take the Braves on the run-line (-1½ runs) over the Marlins.
I don’t think Atlanta’s got enough time to overtake the Rockies for the N.L. wild-card, but Bobby Cox’s club sure as hell is given it the old college try. With Sunday’s 6-3, 10-inning victory over the Nationals, the Braves have now won six in a row (all on the road, mind you) and 14 of their last 16. Their last eight wins have covered the run line, and 11 of their 14 wins during their 14-2 run have come by multiple runs.
Tonight, Cox hands the ball to his best pitcher, Jair Jurrjens. Even though his 13-10 record doesn’t suggest it, Jurrjens has been among the best pitchers in the National League this season. He’s got a 2.70 ERA overall, a 2.66 ERA at home, and he’s allowed just 176 hits in 200 innings with a 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (140 Ks vs. 71 BBs). The right-hander has been at his absolute best down the stretch, too going 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA in his last three starts, and he’s allowed just 12 earned runs in his last eight starts covering 56 2/3 innings (1.91 ERA).
One of the reasons Jurrjens doesn’t have the wins he should have is a lack of run support (the Braves are averaging just 4.3 runs when he takes the mound). However, Atlanta’s been swinging some hot sticks lately (40 runs during their six-game road winning streak and six runs or more scored 10 times during their 14-2 run), and that figures to continue tonight against Florida’s Anibal Sanchez (4.72 career ERA against Atlanta).
Throw in the fact that the Marlins’ wild-card run for all intents and purposes is over, and we’ve got a motivational edge with Atlanta tonight, too. Lay the 1½ runs and watch Jurrjens lead the Braves to an easy win.
3♦ ATLANTA -1.5
Bobby Maxwell
Minnesota +120 at DETROIT
Today's FREE winner comes from the diamond as I go with the Twins to get the job done in this very crucial A.L. Central series with the Tigers in Detroit.
This is it for these teams. They have got to lay it all on the line over the next four nights if they want a spot in the playoffs. Minnesota knows it has to win three of the four games to have any shot of winning the division, while Detroit knows getting just two will almost guarantee it a postseason position.
Detroit leads the division by two games, but the Twins have been coming fast. They are 11-2 in their last 13 games and on other hot streaks of 5-1 on the road, 4-1 as an underdog, 20-7 against right-handed starters, 16-6 in divisional games and 5-0 on Mondays.
Minnesota’s Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.23 ERA) has fantastic in his last two starts, beating both the Indians and White Sox. He gave up two runs and didn’t walk a batter in 13.1 innings and over his last seven outings he’s held the opposition to three earned runs or less each time.
Detroit’s Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.14 ERA) is just 1-2 against Minnesota this season with a 3.71 ERA. He’s got a 4.07 ERA at home this season and you can expect the Twins to get to him early and get to the Tigers’ questionable bullpen.
Play the plus-money and go with the Twins.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Dominic Fazzini
Minnesota +120 at DETROIT
I gave you a winner on my complimentary selection Sunday with the Chargers' easy win over Miami. Now it's a return to the diamond to pick up another victory today!
The Tigers looked like they were going to run away with the AL Central crown, but they have been bumbling for a while now, letting the Twins have a real shot at stealing the division title from them.
Well now it comes to this, a four-game series at Comerica Park that could settle things once and for all.
Minnesota starter Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.18 ERA) was on the verge of being an All-Star during the first half of the season, but he was horrible for most of July and August, going 1-7 with a 7.36 ERA in 11 outings, before finally starting to get his act back together this month.
The right-hander has won his last two starts, allowing two runs in 13 1/3 innings. He allowed eight hits in seven scoreless innings last Monday in a 7-0 victory at Chicago.
Blackburn is 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA in six career games (five starts) against Detroit, and 4-7 with a 4.07 ERA in 16 road starts this season.
Tigers starter Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.14) has been solid down the stretch, going 4-1 with a 3.28 ERA in his last six outings. The 20-year-old right-hander is 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA in three starts against Minnesota, with losses in his last two outings.
The Twins might not end up winning the division, but they are 9-5 against the Tigers this year. And Detroit has lost 11 of its last 19 games, while Minnesota has won 11 of 13. With Blackburn back on his game, I think the race gets a little tighter today. Go with the Twins to earn the victory.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Karl Garrett
Minnesota at DETROIT -130
Big AL Central showdown goes tonight from Comerica Park, and my money in the opener is on the home team.
Minnesota may be the hotter of the two teams right now, but the Twins are still 4 games under .500 on the road this season, while the Tigers are 22 games over .500 at home for the year, and have taken 3 of the 5 games played between the clubs in the Motor City this year.
It will be Blackburn, and Porcello in this one, and while Blackburn has pitched well his last 2 starts, I am not convinced he is totally out of the funk he was going through for the better part of the second half of the season.
Porcello did lose at the Metrodome two starts ago, but is 8-3 at home for the season. I expect the rookie to come up big in another home start tonight.
Go with the Tigers to set the tone.
1♦ DETROIT
LT Profits
Florida at Atlanta
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The Atlanta Braves are putting pressure on the Colorado Rockies for the National League wild card spot by going 14-2 in their last 16 games, and we look for a multiple-run win tonight with Jair Jurrjens on the hill vs. the Florida Marlins.
The Braves trail the Rockies by just two games in the loss column, and Atlanta has the more favorable schedule with their last seven games all at home, including a season ending four-game series vs. the last place Washington Nationals. But first things first, as they have a three game series vs. these Marlins, a team the Braves have done well against at home, going 35-17 in the last 52 meetings with the Fish in the Peach State.
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Jurrjens has pitched like the ace of the staff this season, as his 13-10 record does not do him justice. The fact of the matter is that Jurrjens is fourth in the National League in ERA at 2.70, and he is in very good company, trailing only Cy Young candidates Chris Carpenter, Tim Lincecum and Adam Wainwright.
Jurrjens also has a good 1.24 WHIP in exactly 200 innings, and he has reeled off eight straight Quality Starts. This includes allowing one earned run or less in each of his last three starts (0.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 22 innings), and he is two for two in Quality Starts vs. the Marlins this season.
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Now Anibal Sanchez is also in good form after coming back this year from major arm surgery, but keep in mind that he tossed a season-high 110 pitches his last time out, which is more of a concern for him than most other pitchers because of his past arm problems. Thus, he may be slightly off his game tonight, which is bad news vs. an Atlanta lineup that is averaging 5.90 runs in the last 10 games, and the Florida bullpen has been shaky that same 10-game span (4.99 ERA).
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Look for the Braves to stay smoking-hot here with a nice Run Line victory.
Pick: Braves -1.5