Tom Freese
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
Chicago is 7-3 home their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and they are 15-7 with John Danks on the mound on the road on grass the last year plus. The White Sox are 4-1 with Danks vs. an opponent that scored 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 4-1 their last 5 games at the Indians. Cleveland starter Aaron Laffey has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Cleveland is 6-20 their last 26 games overall. The Indians are 0-6 their last 6 games vs. lefty starters and they are 0-7 their last 7 games vs. AL Central teams. The Tribe is 3-12 with Laffey as an underdog.
Play on: Chicago
VEGAS EXPERTS
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
While the Twins have undoubtedly been the hotter of the two teams, this is not a good spot for them. They are just 3-13 on the road on Monday's and 9-20 after scoring one run or less in a division loss the previous game. Starter Nick Blackburn does not perform well away from the Homer Dome, with team losses in 11 of 15 starts this season. The Tigers are 39-18 as a home favorite this season. They have won 18 of Rick Porcello's 26 starts on a natural surface.
Play on: Detroit
Vernon Croy
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Minnesota Twins
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Twins are 10-1 in their last 11 road games when facing a right hand starter so we are getting great value here Monday night. The Twins are a red hot 11-2 in their last 13 games and they are 4-1 in Nick Blackburn's (11-11, 4.18) last 5 starts against an AL Central opponent. The Tigers are just 1-5 in their last 6 games in game 1 of a series and Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.14) was hit hard in his last start against the Twins where he allowed 8 hits and 3 earned runs over just 6 innings. Take the Minnesota Twins Monday Night.
MATT FARGO
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Minnesota Twins
This series will obviously go a long way in deciding the American League Central. The Tigers pretty much had this division within their grasp early this month as they had a seven-game lead over the Twins and an eight-game lead over the White Sox on September 6th. The White Sox did not make a move but Minnesota did as it has made up five games since then and it trails by just two games heading into this four-game set. The Twins have won 11 of their last 13 games and they cannot afford to lose this series and even a split is to their disadvantage. The Twins have dropped three of five at Detroit, but hold a 9-5 overall advantage in the season series and after starting the season pretty bad on the road, they have been able to make up a lot of ground. The starting pitching matchup looks to favor the Tigers but I prefer the experience in this one as this is as close to a playoff game as you can get. Nick Blackburn is coming off back-to-back quality starts following a rough outing against Oakland and he is the one pitcher Minnesota needs to come through to get this series going the right way. He has actually pitched better on the road this season than at home and in 16 road outings, 11 of those have been quality performances including four straight. Rookie Rick Porcello has really picked things up for the Tigers as he has allowed three runs or fewer in five of his last six starts with three of those being quality versions. This is by far his biggest outing of the season and while he has been solid at home, he faces a Twins offense that has been on fire. During this 13-game run, the Twins have averaged 6.2 rpg and they are hitting .303 over their last 10 games. The Twins are 10-1 in their last 11 road games against a right-handed starter. The Tigers do have the third best home record in baseball but they are just 6-13 in their last 19 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. 3* Minnesota Twins
Dave Price
1 Unit on Washington Nationals -104
I'll back the Nats at home here behind southpaw starter Ross Detwiler. Detwiler is still looking for his first win of the season, but he looked pretty good against the Dodgers five days ago in a game the Nats won but he did not earn a decision. I look for him to build off of that performance to pick up his first win of the year tonight against a Mets club that has struggled against southpaw starters. In fact, the Mets are 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Nats.
Jeff Scott
5 UNIT PLAY (NFL GOM, Also It Is A Power Angle Play)
Carolina +9 over DALLAS: Yes this is Dallas' first home MNF game in their new stadium, but they may not be up for this one after the emotional balle with the G-Men last week. Dallas may have added by subtracting when they got rid of TO, but at last check he wasn't on the defensive side and that's where their problems have been early in the year. Dallas is allowing 443 ypg and 27 ppg through thier first 2 games. That's very un Dallas like. Carolina really struggled on offense in their opening week loss to the Eagles, but they were never really able to get it going after a ton of TO's. Last week vs a tough Atlanta defense they were even in the TO battle and as a result were able to put up 440 yards of offense, including 296 through the air. There is no question that Dallas has the better overall talent, but they are still an unfocused group that will allow a hungry carolina team to keep this one close, if not win outright. Boy's by no more than 3. Power Angles For This Play-- Panthers are 17-1 ATS as non-div dogs vs opp that allowed 28 or more points last week & 19-4 ATS as road dogs vs less than .777 opp who scored 14 or more last game, while the Boys are 4-17-1 ATS at home off a Loss.
Jim Kruger
Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys
I believe both teams will be running the ball a bunch tonight. Carolina has had a fair amount of injuries on their front seven and just lost a starting DL last week, Louis Leonard. Both teams have had difficulties stopping the run, Carolina allowing 168 yards per game, 4.9 yards per carry, with Dallas at 135.5 yards, 4.8. Dallas was able to get 251 yards on the ground last week against the Giants. Carolina's rushing attack with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is one of the league's best.
Carolina has had troubles on their kick and punt coverage teams allowing an 85-yard TD punt return and 29.4 yards per kick return. Dallas has good return men in Miles Austin and Felix Jones.
Carolina has a new defensive coordinator who has the Panthers playing a lot of cover 2 zone with very little blitzing. They have been very susceptible on passes to the tight end. The Cowboys' Jason Witten could have a big night.
The Panthers are not getting a good pass rush, just 2 sacks this year. Albeit, it is a little better than Dallas' which has recorded zero sacks this season. Dallas ranks 30th in total defense after the first two games.
While Carolina ranks high on defensive in passing yards allowed, they are giving up a terrible 67.9% pass completion rate. Other teams are running on Carolina as their run defense is that bad.
Take the OVER 48
John Ryan
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Play: Kansas City Royals +1.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Kansas City on the RUN-LINE as they face the NYY set to start at 7:05 EST. KC is a solid 15-5 against the run line (+11.2 Units) when playing against a top-level team sporting a win percentage of > 62% over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 44-24 making 38.9 units since 2003. Play on road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 after 5 or more consecutive home games in September games. KC is a solid 15-5 (+16.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team sporting a win percentage of > 62% over the last 3 seasons. Take Kansas City.
Jr Tips
Rangers at Angels
The scenario is simple for the Los Angeles Angels, they need just one win in any of their next four games against the Texas Rangers that will give them another AL West title. tonight, the Angels look to lock up their fifth division title in six years when they open a home series against the Rangers, who are close to elimination. Los Angeles ended a four-game slide with a 7-4 victory over Oakland last night while Texas blew a three-run lead in the ninth inning of a 7-6 home loss to Tampa Bay and that cut the Angels' magic number to win the West to two games. The injury plagued Rangers will be eliminated from postseason contention with a loss and a victory by Boston on Monday. Los Angeles will start Ervin Santana (7-8, 5.46 ERA), who may be pitching for a spot in the club's postseason rotation. Santana is 0-2 with a 3.82 ERA in his last six outings.The right-hander did not get a decision for the third straight start last Tuesday against the Yankees after surrendering five runs over six innings in a 6-5 loss.The Rangers will counter with rookie Tommy Hunter (9-4, 3.67), who is 3-1 with a 5.34 ERA in his last five starts. The loss came in his lone career outing against Los Angeles as Hunter yielded two runs over five innings Sept. 18 in a 2-0 loss to the Angels.The 23-year-old right-hander pitched worse Wednesday at Oakland, but won as he gave up a season-high seven runs over 5 2-3 innings in a 9-8 win. With all thats on the line at home tonight, the Angeles will take advantage of the 23-year old Texas rookie who seems to be wearing down while Santana has to show his stuff tonight to get a spot in the playoff rotation.
TAKE TEXAS -1.5
Drew Gordon
Chi. White Sox at CLEVELAND +105
Now on a 62-51 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Chi. White Sox/Cleveland match up.
Indians on a mini-surge, coming off a 3-game sweep of the Orioles, and now hosting a tail-spinning White Sox club tonight. Needless to say, neither team here is very consistent at this point, but based on several factors, including the aformentioned little surge by the Tribe, I'm siding with the home team in this one.
Pitching match up may look like a mismatch at first, but John Danks has had major issues against the Tribe in the past, going 0-3 with a ridiculous 10.54 ERA over his L3 starts against them! That includes an ugly effort back on June 5th, where the Indians roughed him up for 5 runs over 5 2/3 innings. Danks had a nice run going up until his last start, but the last thing he needs is to face an Indians lineup that has not only crushed him in the past, but also is suddenly starting produce over their L3 games.
On the flip side, Aaron Laffey had a couple rough start against strong offenses in his L3 efforts, getting knocked around by the Rangers and Twins. However, he did settle down in his last effort, taming the Tigers, allowing 1 run over 6 2/3 innings last Tuesday! That should come as no surprise, as Laffey has been MUCH better at home, going 4-2 with a rock-solid 2.73 ERA this season! Also of note, Laffey is 2-2 with a respectable 3.76 ERA in 5 career outings (4 starts) versus the White Sox!
Bottom line, there's no "postseason" motivation or factors like that to consider. In fact, at this point in the season for these two teams, its about two things: A. Who's playing better baseball. And B. Who's got the edge on the mound. And quite frankly, the Tribe gets the nod in the both departments tonight, and that'll be the difference in this one.
Take Cleveland behind Laffey over the Chicago White Sox and Danks in this MLB match up.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Stephen Nover
Texas at ANGELS
The Rangers are a live 'dog here at a nice price, but the smartest way to go is over the total.
Rangers rookie starter Tommy Hunter has hit the wall this month with a 5.34 ERA. He gave up a season-high seven runs in 5 2/3 innings during his last start.
The Angels rank No. 1 in batting average in baseball and second in runs scored.
The Rangers should do damage against Angels starter Ervin Santana, who has a career 6.67 ERA in 15 starts versus Texas.
Santana is having a rough go, too. The Angels have lost six of his last seven home starts. He's surrendered seven home runs in his last three starts. Texas is second in the majors in homers and ninth in batting average.
The Rangers are swinging hot bats having scored 29 runs in their last three games. Josh Hamilton is back and Michael Young is expected to play today after missing 22 of the past 23 games with a hamstring injury. Those two are huge for Texas' offense.
1♦ OVER
Tony Weston
Bad call with the Dolphins yesterday. But that’ll happen when your starting quarterback gets knocked out of the game and you have to turn to a QB that hasn’t pissed a drop in the NFL.
I’m moving past that and coming through tonight as I’m taking the Cleveland Indians at home against the visiting Chicago White Sox.
These teams have gone back and forth this season, battling it out in the NL Central. But recently, the Indians have gotten the best of the White Sox, having gone 3-1 against Chicago their last four meetings.
Now the Indians get a shot at a White Sox team that’s gone just 3-8 its last 11 games and has won just 5 of its last 17 games on the road.
Consider, too, Chicago has to turn to scheduled starter John Danks, which has not been a good thing for the Sox lately. The White Sox have won just 1 of Danks’ last 5 starts, including losses in each of their last 2, where Danks has allowed 8 earned runs in 14 innings of work.
It’ll be another loss for the Sox with Danks on the mound as the Indians make it 4-1 against their Central rivals.
3♦ INDIANS
Craig Davis
I realize this number is a bit inflated, but rightfully so. Neither pass defense is worth writing home about and if you look at the amount of points and yardage each defense has allowed through two games, it's scary. The TB Bucs, who were shut out by the Giants yesterday, scored more than 20 points and racked up over 400 yards against Dallas. The following week the Giants also abused the Cowboys defense, racking up over 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing. The Panthers were equally bad, especially last week, allowing second-year QB Matt Ryan to torch them for 220 yards and three TDs, not to mention Michael Turner's 105-yard performance. The recipe is right for a lot of points tonight, so the OVER should easily hit, likely by early in the fourth quarter.
2♦ OVER
Lenny Del Genio
DAL / CAR Over 48
Both defenses here are not up to par. Carolina is allowing 33 points per game through two weeks. Dallas has given up the third most yards in the league. They have yet to record a single sick or takeaway. The Cowboys have also scored in the 30's in both games so far. The Panthers are 3-0 Over as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points the past three seasons. Dallas has gone Over in 21 of their last 35 games overall, including 14 of 22 on turf. They are a perfect 5-0 Over after outrushing their previous opponent by 100+ yards and 10-5 Over after playing a game where 50 or more points were scored. Take Over.