Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, September 29

EZWINNERS

Kansas City +3

In a very suprise move the Patriots traded away veteran offensive lineman Logan Mankins to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the season was about to begin. This move is not looking so good now as the New England offensive line has been pretty leaky. Quarterback Tom Brady has taken a beating in two of the first three games, and now this struggling line must deal with pressure from Tamba Hali, Justin Houston and Dontari Poe. The Chiefs offense has not been great so far this season, but they seemed to get things going in their win over the Dolphins. KC also shouldn't have to win a shoot out as the Patriots offense doesn't look like the New England offenses of old as they are averaging just 301 yards and 22 points per game.

DAVE COKIN

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
PLAY: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +3

I’m not sure what to make of the Patriots right now. Belichick and Brady are still there, and the Pats are 2-1 out of the gate. But there are some items of concern here, and it’s at least conceivable that there’s a bit of decline taking place on this roster. There’s just no getting around how inefficient the New England offense has been thus far. If this continues, the Pats are going to lose some games, and it’s certainly a possibility tonight.

Kansas City was about as phony as it gets for much of last season, and the consensus that they’d take a step or two backward this season looks like it’s going to be on target. The Chiefs look destined for a third place finish in the AFC West. I don’t think this is a terrible team, but they’re clearly not as good as the Broncos or Chargers, and if they go 1-3 against those two in divisional play, I’d consider it a victory of sorts.

Despite the poor offense, the Patriots are the better team here. But they’re up against what should be a fired up home crowd in what can be a very difficult venue for visitors. And there’s a significant trend in play here.

The angle in question teams that are dogs in Game Four after getting their first win of the season the prior outing. I think there’s a reasonable rationale here that takes this out of the complete fluke category. Getting that initial win after starting 0-2 is a major confidence boost for any team, and grabbing points with a team that’s at least gaining some momentum is not a terrible thing. In any event, backing underdogs in this scenario has been remarkably productive for several years, and it’s tough to argue with the success rate.

This is not a powerful opinion on my part. Belichick vs. Reid is still lopsided from my perspective and it’s really weird to see Tom Brady sitting at #28 in the NFL QB ratings. Maybe it’s a great spot to fade a team that’s no longer what it was, and there is that big winning trend to factor into the equation. But I’m not brimming with confidence on this call. Chiefs +3 is the choice, but this is definitely not top play material for me.

SPORTS WAGERS

New England/KANSAS CITY Under 46½

This isn’t your big brother’s New England Patriots anymore. Tom Brady has been in the league for 14 years. His 37-year-old body has taken a beating over the years and he doesn’t get up off the ground as quickly as he used to. Statistically speaking, Brady is the very definition of average with approximately 200 passing yards per game. Racking up 300 yards every game and throwing for 3 TD’s is a thing of the past. The Patriots are no longer a team that can play from behind and win games 35-30. Bill Belichick knows it and because he’s the smartest coach in the league, he works with what he has to make it work. When the Patriots aren’t running the ball, Brady will use the short passing game to complete four or five yard passes. The Patriots are an extremely efficient third down team that uses the clock in all of their offensive possessions to wear down the defense. At home against the Raiders last week, New England was happy to win 16-9 and those are the type of wins the Patriots will record more often than not. The Patriots defense ranks #1 in the league against the pass and that does not bode well for the Chiefs.

Alex Smith ended up with three passing TD’s against Miami last week but he only threw for 186 yards. However, Smith was also sacked five times despite only attempting 30 passes. Against the Broncos, in Denver no less, K.C lost 24-17 and against Tennessee in their opener, the Chiefs won 26-10. In between those two games was the aforementioned game against the Fish. The 34 points the Chiefs put up on Miami was nothing more than an aberration. Kansas City possesses a pedestrian offense that is not going to outwit a coaching staff that is as intelligent as the Patriots are. Totals on Patriots games are still around the same number as they were when Brady was in his prime. Intellectually, Brady is in his prime but physically he’s far past it. Slowly and methodically Brady uses that intellect to grind out victories. This one has a much better chance of being 17-13 than it does of 27-24 and that is how we’re playing it.

Steve Rosen

Patriots vs. Chiefs
Play: Under 47

I like the under in this game between the Pats and Cheifs. Why you ask? Trends mean a lot. History usually repeats itself more than it doesn't. The last 4 games between them the under has hit all 4 times! BOTH teams have hit the under 2/3 games this season. I see this one being on the low scoring end around the 38-40 mark.

Michael Black

Patriots at Chiefs
Play: Patriots -3

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the New England Patriots for this week's edition of Monday Night Football and we're backing the Pats as the small road favorite in this one. New England comes into this game off a terrible non cover at home to the Raiders, winning 16-9. New England was held to just one TD in that game. These guys are due for a breakout game offensively, seeing as they've only put up one touchdown in their last 6 quarters. KC is off a big road win over Miami 34-15, they're due to cool off after covering two In a row to the Broncos and Fins. Belichick gets Brady and Co. the road W so let's swallow the 3 points.

Anthony Michael

New England -3

The Patriots love Monday night since they have covered 9 of their last 13 games in the Monday night spotlight. Also they have covered 7 of their last 10 games against Kansas City. The Patriots offense has not been outstanding but their defense has been excellent. Look for a big effort out of the Pats here to get this win and cover.

Bob Balfe

Patriots -3

There are games in which you just can’t find a reason to back a team and tonight there is no reason at all Kansas City should be backed by any gambler. I don’t have a crystal ball and in gambling anything can happen, but the Kansas City Defense is missing 4 key opening day starters and on offense are without 2 opening day starters and have two rookies starting. Simply the put only the center has ever taken a snap in a Kansas City Chiefs Uniform outside of this season. The Patriots pretty much remain intact from last year on both sides of the ball with Revis being a major upgrade at corner. On offense every last starter has been in this system for over a full football season. The special team’s edge also goes to the Patriots when it comes to kicking field goals as the Chiefs are starting a rookie. Kansas City is usually a good team at home, but with all of these guys on IR and key players nursing injuries I just don’t see them stopping Tom Brady. This Kansas City Defense has yet to generate a turnover this year. I am not saying this is the same New England team as last year. The Patriots are going to struggle against very good football teams, but in this spot they are just going to take advantage of a football team that has been decimated with injuries. There is only one logical play for me to tonight and that is New England. I always say MNF is not a game and more so an event which means anything can happen, but with the information I just gave you if the Chiefs can win with all of those key players out then so be it. Take the Patriots.

Steve Rich

New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +3

This Monday Night Football game will be played in Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium in front of nearly 80,000. The stadium will be juiced as they try to break the Guinness record for loudest stadium. They are giving out earplugs to anyone that wants them on the way in. At the time of this writing the Patriots are still favored by three in Vegas while a few online books have dropped it to 2.5.

KC is certainly a city with a buzz today as the Royals, who made the playoffs for the first time in 29 years, play tomorrow night against the A’s, and the Pats are in town for MNF.

Well you know it will be loud then and Brady hasn’t looked particularly comfortable with losing long time OL coach Dante Scarnecchia and guard Logan Mankins. The offense just hasn’t gelled yet. I’m not sure tonight is the night either. I look for HC Belichick to try to run the ball and take the crowd and KC pass rush out of the game a little. The Pats have won two games in a row with their defense. They held their last two opponents to a total of 16 points. In all fairness, those two teams were the Vikings and Raiders. There are many teams in the NFL that could probably accomplish that. Does Brady get comfortable against the Chiefs secondary? It is certainly possible, however, he has been sacked seven times this year.

The Chiefs look to have RB Jamaal Charles back and will keep the ball on the ground, I also look for KC to give backup RB Knile Davis plenty of work, this in an attempt to keep Brady and his passing game off the field. Even with the NE 31st ranked passing game Brady can light it up at any time. The KC defense has nine sacks and will look to keep Brady and his passing attack quiet for one more week.

Harry Bondi

New England / Kansas City Over 45

Everyone is expecting a defensive slugfest but we think both clubs will try to take to the airways knowing that yards on the ground are going to be at a premium tonight. Look for Tom Brady to employ a short passing game to move down the field while Kansas City’s best chance to win is definitely through the air against a Patriots defense that has done a great job stopping the run allowing just 60.5 rushing yards per game. Go OVER 45 points.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Kansas City/New England Under 47: The Patriots offense has become a conservative one. Let me repeat that... The Patriot offense has become a conservative one. They rank 21st in the league in passing and have averaged just 22 ppg. Let me repeat part of that... A Tom Brady led passing attack is 31st in the league. Wow. These are not normal Patriots this year. That's ok though as they have a very good defense to fall back on, as they come in ranked 2nd in total defense, 1st vs the pass and they allow just 16.3 ppg. This defense can be run on some as they are 11th vs the run and that is how I expect the Chiefs to attack them, especially if Charles plays as expected. The Chief defense has been very solid this year and should have a good showing vs a bad Patriot offense tonight. Let me repeat that... A bad Patriot offense. This game features two of the worst passing offenses in the league vs two top 8 passing defense, plus a coach that has become conservative and one that seems to always have been conservative. Defense, defense and more defense here as we get a game in the 30s at best.

Vegas Butcher

Patriots / Chiefs Under 47

The success of an NFL team can start and end with an offensive line. So far this season, both Pats’ and Chiefs’ O-lines have really struggled. KC ranks 31st with a 9.8% ASR (Adjusted Sack Rate) while NE is 18th with a 5.9% rate. Maybe that’s part of the reason why Brady ranks 25th in QB-Efficiency while Smith is right behind him at 26th. That’s out of 35 qualified starters through week 3. Brady is averaging a terrible 5.5 PY/A, the worst mark of his career and way below his career average of 7.4. Defensively, KC’s D-line ranks 3rd in the league with an ASR of 8.3% and NE’s is 13th with a 6.6% mark. Both of these defenses feature very good pass-rushers, capable of creating a lot of havoc on the O-lines. I doubt that we’ll see many big plays via the pass down the field, as I don’t think either team will have a ton of time to let the pass-plays develop. Naturally, I expect both to rely on the run-games. Charles is probable for this one, though his effectiveness might be at less than 100% while Ridley/Vereen are very good runners themselves. While New England comes in ranking #1 against the pass defensively, they’re only 18th against the run, and KC is 23rd in that area. Running the ball and controlling the clock might be the right game-plan for both of these squads and that favors a lower scoring game. I like this one to stay low scoring.