Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers -136
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The Brewers have it going. They have won 11 of 13, and I expect them to keep rolling against a Miami club that has dropped 8 of 10.
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The Brewers have won 10 of 12 against the Marlins, including 4 in a row in Miami. They easily have the edge on the mound with Michael Fiers (2.88 ERA). The Brewers are 5-2 in Fiers' last 7 starts, and he held the Marlins to 2 runs in 7 1-3 innings while striking out 9 and walking 1 in his lone start against Miami.
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Miami's Ricky Nolasco (4.79 ERA) is carrying a 9.47 ERA in 6 career starts against the Brewers. The Marlins are 4-9 in Nolasco's last 13 starts as an underdog and 1-5 in his last 6 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Brew Crew.
DAVID BANKS
Georgia Tech / Virginia Tech Over 48.5
In an opening college football weekend filled with mostly non-conference games, as is the norm, there is also a good old fashioned ACC battle on Monday night when Virginia Tech hosts Georgia Tech from Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, VA at 8:00 ET on ESPN. Virginia Tech had its string of ACC Championships snapped by Clemson last season while Georgia Tech has always boasted one of the premier rushing attacks in the country since Paul Johnson took over as head coach.
Virginia Tech finished 11-3 in 2011, and the Hokies would have been undefeated in ACC play if not for Clemson as they lost to the Tigers twice, once in the regular season and then again in the ACC Championship Game. The Hokies' third loss was to Michigan in overtime in the Sugar Bowl. The backbone of any Virginia Tech team is Bud Foster's defense, and that unit returns nine starters from a unit that ranked seventh in the country in scoring defense last year at 17.8 points per game and tenth in total defense at 306.1 yards per contest. The Hokies also led the ACC with 41 sacks, and defensive ends James Gayle and J.R. Collins are among the returnees, as is rush linebacker Bruce Taylor, who missed six games last season with a foot injury. However, the situation on offense is much more treacherous. The good news is quarterback Logan Thomas returns after combining for over 3800 yards last year with his passing and running, but gone are ACC Player of the Year David Wilson, who now runs for the New York Giants, as well as all of his top receivers from 2011 and four offensive linemen. Sure the Hokies had a good recruiting class and they have a competent running back in Michael Holmes to replace Wilson, but the pressure may be on Thomas to do it alone in the early going while the young Tech talent develops.
As has become customary, the Yellow Jackets ranked second in the country last year with 316.4 rushing yards per game, making them the only non-military academy to rank in the top four in rushing. Then again that makes sense since Johnson brought over the triple option offense that he employed while he was the coach at Navy. Georgia Tech now returns its three top rushers from 2011, one of which is quarterback Tevin Washington, who actually led the team with 986 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. Washington added 1652 passing yards and 11 more touchdowns through the air, but he completed only 49.3 percent of his passes, which is why it is important for the Jackets to either stay close or play with a lead, as this is not a team equipped to overcome large deficits. The defense struggled last year though in its 3-4 formation that former NFL Coach and current defensive coordinator Al Groh put in, as it ranked just 62nd in the country in points allowed and allowed 30 points or more in each of its last four games including a Sun Bowl loss to Utah. A positive may be that the defense is more experienced with seven returning starters, although that would lose significance if the returnees don't step up.
Although it is only opening week, the winner of this head-to-head Coastal Division matchup has gone on to play in the ACC Championship Game in each of the last seven seasons. Virginia Tech was the winner in five of those meetings, but it is Georgia Tech that went 4-3 ATS. Also, the road teams are 5-1 ATS the last six years.
Matt Rivers
8-4 the last 12 days with my comp play selections.
For Monday, take Seattle over Boston.
The Mariners may be in last place in the A.L. West, but they have really played tough baseball down the stretch, as yesterday's 2-1 win over Jered Weaver and the Angels was their 9th in their last 11 home games, and 12th win overall their last 18 times on the diamond.
Boston is on the verge of losing their 7th in a row, as Bobby Valentine's team is 0-6 on this road trip that saw them drop both three in Oakland, and three in Anaheim.
It will be Clay Buchholz working against Jason Vargas.
Buchholz has allowed 11 earned runs and 18 hits his last 12-plus innings pitched, and he does sport a day time ERA of 7.81.
Vargas has been tough to score on at Safeco Field this year, as his 2.63 ERA indicates.
The Red Sox get sent to their 7th loss in a row today, as Vargas and the M's improve to 10-2 their last twelve games at home.
3♦ SEATTLE
Jeff Benton
Monday's freebie is the Diamonbacks and the Giants to go Over the total with Corbin and Zito on the mound.
Forget the fact that the last time these teams met back in late May they stayed Under the total in all three meetings. San Francisco has been producing some runs these days, as they are on a 6-2-1 Over tear their last nine games, and starter Barry Zito has been serving them up of late as well.
Zito's ERA stands at 5.65 over his last three starts, and 10 of his last 14 starts this season have ended up going Over the posted price.
Patrick Corbin will counter for the D-Backs, and his ERA over his last three starts stands at 5.60. Corbin's Over mark is 4-2-1 his last seven trips to the hill.
The Over has been the play in eight of the Giants last nine games played at home, and it will be the play again today.
Take the Over in the Arizona-San Francisco series opener.
2♦ ARIZONA-SAN FRANCISCO OVER
Wunderdog
Boston at Seattle
Pick: Seattle -110
The Red Sox fans have been spoiled by their team's success, but they have long since taken their ball and gone home. This is a franchise that cashed in their chips for the season, dealing a lot of quality players in a huge salary dump to the Dodgers. Considered to have one of the best rotations in baseball in April, they have been diminished to one that ranks 26th in baseball and declining. The Sox staff has surrendered 100 runs in their last 13 games for 7.7 a contest. The Mariners staff ranks eight in baseball and they have played like contenders over their last 40 games where they are 26-14 and have been a tough out at home where they are 16-3 over their last 19. The Sox's reputation is ruling the line here, not their reality. Play on Seattle.
Harry BondiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgia Tech / Virginia Tech 47.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These two teams have gone over this total three straight years, but the major difference this season is that the game comes as the opener. That means both defenses had the entire summer to prepare and will be ahead of the offenses, which both rely on precision and would rather keep the ball on the ground. In addition, the forecast calls for some rain at some point in the game tonight and that will also help the under. The Hokies have historically been an "under" team at home, going under the total more than 60% of the time the last 10 years in Blacksburg and that number increases to 75% (9 unders in 12 games) when the total is between 45 and 49.
Hollywood SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Twins at Chicago White SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Chicago White Sox -1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota (55-79) has lost a decisive 45 of their last 67 games against teams with a winning record. The Twins have also lost 10 of their last 14 road games. They send out Deduno who is 5-2 with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP this year -- but he sees these numbers rise to a 4.68 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP triggered by a poor .294 opponent's batting average. Chicago (72-61) has been very tough at home where they own 21 of their last 26 home games. They counter with Santiago who is making his first start for the White Sox after making 36 appearances from the bullpen where he generated a 2-1 record along with a 3.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and an impressive .219 opponent's batting average. Santiago was sent down to the minors in July to get some work in as a starter -- and he did not allow an earned run while giving only 9 hits and producing a 1.02 WHIP in his 14 2/3 innings of work in Triple-A. Santiago also enjoys a 1.28 WHIP and .198 opponent's batting average at home in Comiskey Park as opposed to his 1.41 WHIP and .241 opponent's batting average when on the road. The White Sox have won 4 straight home games when favored in the -151 to -200 price range -- and while none of these team trends take the Run-Line into account, taking your chances with Chicago laying 1.5 runs at an underdog price is a more enticing proposition than paying the -160 price straight up for the White Sox. Take Chicago minus the 1.5 Run-Line while listing both starting pitchers.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona/SAN FRAN over 8 -110
4:05 PM EST. Barry Zito has pitched in three daytime games at AT&T park, all in the past five weeks and the scores of the first two games were 10-0 and 9-1 with the Giants losing both. The third attempt resulted in a 9-6 Giants win. In summarizing, Zito has been tagged for 21 hits and 15 runs in 15 IP in those three home matinée games. With the Giants’ bats thriving right now (they led the NL in runs scored in August while hitting a collective .281) we’re not about to miss this opportunity either.
San Fran is a different park during day games. At night it favors pitchers because of the damp air but the open air on warm summer days turns this perceived pitcher’s park into a hitter’s park. Conditions today show the wind blowing out to center at 9MPH.
Patrick Corbin has a 4.46 road ERA. Over his last three starts, he’s gone 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA. Corbin is also a lefty and the Giants have been hammering southpaws all year with 28 wins in 42 games. Barry Zito’s poor season continued his last time out, as he lasted just 2.1 innings against the lowly Astros. When Zito pitches, Giant hitters come to the park with a different mindset then when Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum or Ryan Vogelsong pitches. They know they have to score runs and they usually score a bunch (28 over his last four starts) in support of him. Expect a runfest in this one.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers -156
The Texas Rangers have won eight of their last 11 to get to 79-54 on the season. There's no question they want home-field advantage in the American League, and they'll be fighting this last month to get it. Kansas City (60-73) has nothing to play for.
Yu Darvish has been pretty solid this season, going 13-9 with a 4.31 ERA, including 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA in his last three starts.
Bruce Chen is 10-10 with a 5.13 ERA in 28 starts this season. Chen is 2-2 with a 7.56 ERA and 1.920 WHIP in five career starts against Texas.
The Rangers are 70-33 in their last 103 vs. a team with a losing record. Texas is 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rangers are 16-7 in their last 23 meetings with Kansas City. Bet Texas Monday.