Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
NEW ORLEANS -7 over Miami: Let's go over a few trends to kick this play off. First we note that the Dolphins are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on MNF. For the Saints there are a few more trends that support them. The Saints are 11-1 ATS at home vs a non-division opponent that's off a SU win and 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games under Sean Payton, plus 3-0 home favorites are 11-1 ATS if playing a non-division team that's off a SU win. Now that we have that out of the way. This New Orleans team is on a mission this year. They have they their leader back in Sean Payton and are looking to get back to the playoffs, after missing them last year. Each week the Saints have been looking better and better as they regain their footing with Payton back on the sidelines and this week they should look their best so far. The Miami Dolphins are 3-0 to start the year and yes they are improved, but they beat a Cleveland team that was bad before the QB change, a Indy team that was bad before the Richardson trade and last week they won their home opener vs an Atlanta team that isn't all that good this year. Tonight they step up big time in competition and I feel they will be exposed as a phony 3-0 team. Despite the rather weak schedule, the Dolphins are still 20th in the league vs the pass, while on offense they are 27th overall, putting up just 319.3 ppg. The Saint's come in very strong on both sides of the ball as they are 6th in total yards and 3rd in passing, while on defense they are very improved, ranking 4th overall, 2nd vs the pass and 4th in points allowed (12.7 ppg). The Dolphins get exposed as a phony 3-0 team this week as the Saints roll to a 10 point plus win.
Craig Davis
As for your free play today, I'm taking the Texas Rangers over the Tampa Bay Rays as David Price is horrible in Texas.
Actually, he's horrible in general vs. the Rangers (1-4, 5.98 ERA) but he's even worse when pitching in the ballpark (1-2, 10.96 ERA).
Price was on quite a roll after he returned from injury, with the Rays winning nine of his first 11 starts... but since then it hasn't been quite as positive.
Price is only 9-8 on the season and his ERA is 3.39, but again, it's very suspect against the Rangers.
Texas somehow clawed their way back into the playoff race down the stretch, beating Anaheim 6-2 Sunday to earn this one-game playoff to get to a one-game playoff.
After a dominant August, youngster Martin Perez quieted in September but did win his last start of the season... a 7-3 decision over the Houston Astros.
He's 0-0 vs. the Rays in one career start, but pitched well allowing two earned runs in five innings of work. He's also 8-3 at home this season with a 3.18 ERA.
Take the Rangers as a home dog as your free play of the day.
2♦ TEXAS
Brad Wilton
Monday night free play winner comes in baseball, as I will take the Rays and Rangers to combine for an Over in their tiebreaker contest from Arlington.
At this time of the year it all comes down to pitching, and Tampa hurler David Price will have a large amount of pressure resting on his shoulders. Price is just 1-7 with an ERA quite close to 6 in his 11 regular/postseason starts against the Rangers!
His counterpart Martin Perez has allowed 3 runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts, and the Over has been the play in 5 of his last 8 starts to close the regular season.
Series meetings between the teams show a 3-0-1 Over run the last 4 times the teams have met, and the Over is 7-2-1 the Rays last 10 playoff road games.
Just enough offense tonight between the Rays and Rangers to go Over the total.
2♦ TAMPA BAY-TEXAS OVER
Big Kat Sports
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Over 7.5
We already have a side on tonight’s AL Play-In Game that was released to our clients so we’ll look to the total tonight in a game that will determine who will face the Indians in Wednesday’s AL Wild Card Game. Here are a few trends that have us on the OVER tonight in Texas:
Over is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a road favorite.
Over is 6-2 in Rays last 8 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150.
Over is 13-2-2 in Price’s last 17 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games following a win.
Over is 5-2 in Rangers last 7 games a home underdog.
Over is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Pair those numbers with the fact that the ball flies out of the Ballpark at Arlington, Cruz and Rios are hitting a combined .475 with 4 homers vs. Price and that these two teams have gone over the posted total in their last four games and we’ll roll with that for our Monday Free Play as we look for an offensive explosion tonight in Texas.
Bob Balfe
Texas Rangers -110
The Rays are just an average road team and that is why they are in this spot to begin with. In a winner take all setting I will go with the home team that has rocked Price and the team that is better at hitting left handed pitching. Texas is on a big winning streak and I don’t think they battled all the way back to lose a home game to move on to the next round. This team is hot. Take the Rangers.
Harry Bondi
Miami / New Orleans Under 49
The perception is that New Orleans is an "over" team but the Saints have gone under the total in all of their first three games. Main reason for that is Rob Ryan's defense which has played well. Miami has been a dead under team especially on artificial turf where they are 17-4 to the under their last 21! Let's follow those trends tonight and go under the total in tonight's Monday Night Match-up of unbeatens.