Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, September 5,2011

Marc Lawrence

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

The Indians and Tigers meet in the opener a huge A.L. Central division series where Ubaldo Jimenez opposes Doug Fister at Progressive Field Monday afternoon. Jimenez toes the slab knowing he's dropped three of five career team starts with a 6.59 ERA against Detroit. Meanwhile, Fister enters in fabulous KW form with one walk and 18 strikeouts in his last three starts, while posing a 0.83 ERA in those efforts. With that we'll back the steadier arm and the better team here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

Rob Vinciletti

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Boston Red Sox

Boston fits a simple but effective game one system here today. We want to play on road favorites off a home favored loss, vs an opponent off a road loss of 5 or more runs. These road favorites have won 11 of the past 13 applications. Both teams enter off blowout losses. But Boston has Beckett. In his last 2 starts vs Toronto he has allowed 4 earned runs in 14 innings. He has a fine 2.79 road era this season. He opposes H. Alvarez today. Alvarez has a 5.40 era in his only 2 home starts and figures to struggle here vs a Boston team that is averaging 8.8 runs on .343 hitting on turf this season and 6.5 runs on .303 hitting in day games. Look for Boston to take game one.

Ben Burns

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Washington Nationals
PICK: Washington Nationals

Sometimes, life just isn't fair. Kuroda has a 4.26 ERA his last three starts. He's 3-0 in those games. Lannan has a better 3.50 ERA his last three starts. Yet, he's 0-3 in those games.

Last time out, Kuroda allowed four earned runs in six innings. On the other hand, Lannan allowed only two earned runs (3 overall) through seven innings. Lannan had six K's vs. only one walk. Kuroda had three K's vs. two walks. Yet, Kuroda got the "W" while Lannan suffered a tough loss.

Of course, Kuroda would probably argue that a few "lucky" wins are long overdue. He's got a very solid 3.03 ERA on the season but is still only 11-14. All the same, Lannan does enter September in better form.

Lannan, who has a stingy 3.02 ERA in 14 home starts, has enjoyed plenty of success against the Dodgers. He's 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA in four starts against them, including 3-0 his last three starts against them. All four of his starts against the Dodgers have been of the "quality" variety and his lone home start against them resulted in an 11-2 victory.

With the Nationals at 11-7 as a host in this series, since the team moved from Montreal, don't be surprised if Lannan finally sees a little "justice" here. Consider Washington

Nick Parsons

Mariners @ Angels
PICK: Over

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":

Coming into Sunday the Mariners are 58-80; 32-36 at home and 26-44 on the road.

Seattle has seen the total go "over" the number in 60 of 128 (with ten "pushes").

Anthony Vasquez (1-1, 11.57 ERA) heads to the hill for the visitors; Vasquez got roughed up in his second start in the bigs, giving up eight runs off seven hits on Tuesday to the Angels; he issued three free-passes and struck out just one.

In the other dugout: Coming into Sunday the Angels are 75-64; 39-29 at home and 36-35 on the road.

LA has seen the total go "over" the number in 61 of 127 (with 12 "pushes").

Dan Haren (13-8, 3.16 ERA) toes the rubber for the home side; Haren went seven innings vs. Seattle on Wednesday, giving up two runs on five hits, and taking his eighth loss of the year in the process.

Haren is 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA at home, but is a sub-par 7-8 with a 4.09 ERA in "night games" this season.

Bottom line: There are many factors pointing to the "over" as the prudent wager in this contest.

Scott Spreitzer

Giants @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres

I believe this is going to be a difficult spot for the Giants. They practically needed to sweep the D-backs this past weekend to have a legitimate chance of capturing the NL West. But instead, SFO lost two of three and now sit seven games behind Arizona, vurtually out of the playoffs just one season after winning the world series. Making life a little tougher on the anemic SFO bats will be Padre hurler Tim Stauffer. The righthander owns an impressive 2.52 ERA & 1.16 WHIP in 13 home starts this season. And he owns strong career numbers in 10 appearances aganist San Francisco, including eight starts. The Giants will counter with Madison Bumgarner. The lefty has been tagged for 13 earned runs and 32 base runners in his last three road starts, spanning 17 2/3 IP. That's a 6.61 ERA & 1.81 WHIP. He may throw a decent game on Monday afternoon at PETCO, but I just don't believe there's going to be any fuel left in the team's tank after losing the series against Arizona. And SFO is already a team that doesn't score many runs. Look for the Friars to deliver one more nail to the Giants postseason hopes. I'm backing the Padres on Monday.

David Chan

Braves @ Phillies
PICK: Under

I bet value where I see it and believe this matchup sets up perfectly as a classic "pitchers-duel".

Derek Lowe (9-12, 4.52 ERA) gets the start for the Braves.

Lowe gave up one run and three hits over six frames in Wednesday's 3-1 victory over Washington; he's now 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA over his last three outings.

In three starts vs. the Phillies this year Lowe is 1-2 with a very respectable 2.84 ERA.

He'll be opposed by Cliff Lee (15-7, 2.59 ERA) who is coming off his sixth straight victory on Wednesday in his team's 3-0 win over the Reds.

Over the six starts he's compiled a 1.14 ERA, striking out 50 and walking just 10 over 47 1/3 frames.

The venerable southpaw will be plenty motivated here against a team he's had difficulties against, going 0-2 in three starts vs. the Braves this season with a sub-par 4.91 ERA.

A couple of quality starters going head to head on Monday night; you may want to consider a second look at the under in this one!

Jim Feist

Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays

This should be an exciting matchup as you have to pitchers who are enjoying great success against each other of late. The Rangers were an offensive machine over the weekend, scoring 28 runs with six homers and taking the series against Boston. James Shields may be a bit more daunting task for the Rangers. Shields held the Rangers to just four hits and no runs over eight innings last week in the Rays victory over Texas, 4-1. Scott Feldman has also been pitching great for the Rangers. Feldman has a 1.04 ERA in four lifetime starts against the Rays. This is one of the more exciting pitching matchups today and I'm going with the home team. Shields has already proven he can shut down the bats of the Rangers. I don't see any reason why it won't happen again here on Monday.

SPORTS WAGERS

HAMILTON +132 over Montreal

Montreal is 5-3 but its five wins came against Saskatchewan, Toronto twice, B.C. and Edmonton last week at a time in which the Eskies are reeling from injuries. Excluding Edmonton, the other four are a combined 7-20 and the Eskimos are 0-3 in their past three. So, while the Als are 5-3 and are still considered the class of the East and maybe the whole league, they’re really no better than at least half the teams and their defense is a lot worse than most. The Als can’t defend the pass and that allows the opposition’s running game to succeed too. The Als are allowing an incredible 300 yards a game just through the air and now they have to play without its best cornerback, as Mark Estelle is on the rack and will miss a few weeks. Laying points on the road with a team that can’t stop the chains from moving is bad strategy. That’s not to say the Als can’t win. They’re still an explosive offensive team and that’s always difficult to deal with. Hamilton is coming off a tough loss to the Bombers in a game they were in a position to win. The Tabbies are 4-2 over their past six and that could easily be 5-1. They are the superior team on defense, they’re in better from, they have home-field advantage and they’ve also beaten the Als twice in a row. Clearly the value here is on the home side. Play Hamilton +132 (Risking 2 units).

CALGARY –9 over Edmonton

The Eskimos are a mess and one really has to wonder how they’re going to compete in this game. This is the annual Labour Day classic between these two so motivation or lack thereof on the part of the Stampeders in not an issue. Edmonton has scored five points combined in their last two games and in this league that’s nearly impossible to do. The Eskies still have no receivers, a second string center and a poor and shell-shocked offensive line. This game has disaster written all over it for Edmonton and there’s no getting around it. Calgary is in full stride and they’ll have no sympathy whatsoever for this intruder. Edmonton already won once here this season in Week 4 and don’t think that the Stamps have forgotten. These two play in the same province and it’s one of the most heated rivalries in all of sports. Losing to Edmonton at home for the second time this season is not an option for Calgary when you consider the current state of these guests. Calgary will leave nothing on the table. They’ll come out fired up and they should put this team away early and not take their gas off the pedal. Nothing is as satisfying to the fans or players than blowing away their most hated rival and the Stamps are in a great position to do just that. Edmonton simply does not have the horses to compete here and really should get stampeded. Play: Calgary –9 +101 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

Tampa Bay Rays -145

The Rangers starting pitcher Alex Ogando has been struggling recently. I really think Ogando is starting to get a tired arm and he has also been struggling with his release point out of the stretch. In his last start he only last 2 2/3 innings and over his last three starts he is 0-2 with an ERA of 7.24. Ogando doesn't have much of a history against the Rays as he has only faced them for 4 2/3 innings, but in that limited time his ERA against them is 7.71. The Rays starting pitcher James Shield has had a pretty good season. His record is 13-10, but his ERA is only 2.84. Shields has suffered a lot of tough luck losses where his teammates failed to provide him with run support, but I don't think that will be a problem here against the struggling Ogando. Play on Tampa Bay.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers +109

It's payback time for the NL Central leaders, who were swept at home by St. Louis last week. The Brewers have won 39 of their last 54 overall and 13 of their last 16 on the road. They are also an impressive 21-10 in their last 31 meetings in St. Louis. Milwaukee scheduled starter Randy Wolf is quietly having a fantastic season. The Brewers have won 6 of his last 7 starts, and he'll be very focused tonight with that one loss in this stretch coming last week against the Cards. St. Louis sends Jake Westbrook to the mound this afternoon. Unfortunately for the Cards, he's done his best work on the road. He's just 3-4 with a 5.96 home ERA this season. Take Milwaukee showing value in the underdog role.

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY

NY YANKS -1.5 (-130) over Baltimore: I really hope this ones as easy as it looks. Baltimore is 13-44 in the last 57 meetings with the Yanks and they are 3-11 vs them this year, with 10 of those 11 losses coming by 2 runs or more. In the last 14 Yankee home wins they have gone 12-2 vs the RL, while they are 34-11 vs the RL in their 45 home wins overall. The O's come in at just 23-44 on the road and in their last 29 road losses they are just 5-24 vs the RL. Brian Matusz comes in just 1-7 on the year with a 9.07 ERA and in those 7 losses the Orioles are 0-7 vs the RL. He is 0-3 with a 9.56 ERA in his last 3 starts and the O's have been outscored by 5 rpg in those starts. Now he must face this powerful Yanks squad that hits .271 and scored 5.8 rpg at home this year. I pity this guy. NOT. His shitty pitching vs a strong Yanks offense is a big part of this pick. The O's offense hasn't been good of late as they have averaged just 3.8 rpg in their last 10 games and now they must take on a hot Freddy Garcia. Freddy comes in with a 4-0 mark and a 2.01 ERA in his last 5 start and he is 5-1 with a 1.73 ERA in his day starts. The Yanks have 12 wins with him on the mound this year and they are 11-1 vs the RL in those wins. Like I said above, this really looks easy and let's hope it's as easy as it looks.

4 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGLE PLAY

LA Dodgers/ Washington Over 7.5: The Over is 20-7-2 in the Dodgers last 29 games vs a team with a losing record. The Dodgers come in hot and in their last 12 games they have put up 6.33 rpg over that stretch. This is a team that is ranked 23rd in the league in scoring. Dee Gordon, James Loney, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier have combined to go 48 for 140 (.342) with 7 HR's and 27 RBI's in the last 10 games. These guys are rolling right now. John Lannan will try and slow these guys down and he has actually pitched well this year with a 3.54 ERA overall and a 3.02 ERA at home. His ERA looks solid at 3.42 in his last 4 starts, but a closer look shows that those 4 teams hit .287 and have scored 17 runs total vs him in that stretch, compared to just 7 ER. That's thanks to shitty defense. In his last 4 starts the Nats as a team have allowed 6.8 rpg. On the other side we have Hiroki Kuroda, who comes in with a 4.26 ERA in his last 3 starts, with his team putting up 8.33 rpg for him in the 3 games. That right there gives us the over. The Nats offense hasn't been good, but thanks to poor pitching and bad defense their last 10 games have averaged 9 rpg, while LA's last 10 have averaged 9.1 rpg. LA may just get this Over on their own. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2007 the Over is 16-1 when the Nats play a game before 6:35 pm and it's game 1 of a series.

3 UNIT PLAYS

NY Mets/ Florida Over 8: The Over is 37-13-3 the last 53 meetings in Florida and 9-1-1 in Vasquez's last 11 starts after they scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, while the Over is 16-5-1 in the Mets last 22 road games and 12-3-1 in their last 16 road games vs a team with a losing record. These offense have been pretty good of last as the Mets come in averaging 5 rpg in their last 10 games, while the Marlins have put up 4.6 rpg in their last 5 games. The fish do score just 3.81 rpg overall at home, but they have put up 5.33 rpg in their last 6 at home. The Mets have cored really well on the road this year as they have put up 4.74 rpg, including 5.5 rpg in this ballpark. Chris Capuano has a 4.94 ERA on the road, with 9.75 rpg being scored and he has a 6.51 ERA in his last 2 starts at Florida with 20 runs scored in the 2 games. Javier Vasquez has struggled at home with a 5.20 ERA and 8.83 rpg have been scored in those starts, while in 1 starts vs them here he allowed 4 ER (7 runs total) in just 2.1 innings of work. This one has double digits written all over it.

LA Angels/ Seattle Over 7.5: Anthony Vasquez has just 2 starts on the year, but a 12.57 ERA in the 2 starts, with 19 rpg being scored. One of those starts was vs LA and he allowed 7 ER in just 4 innings of work in a 13-6 loss. Anthony has also allowed 16 hits 5 walks and 4 HR's in his two starts this year. He will be taking on an LA offense that has been hot as they have put up 6 rpg in their last 10 games, while hitting .284 over that same stretch. Dan Haren has pitched well for the halos this year, but he comes in with a 4.95 ERA in his last 5 starts, with an average of 10.2 rpg being scored. He has a solid 2.56 ERA at home, but in his last 3 at home his ERA is 5.12 with an average of 12 rpg being scored. Dan Haren has pitched well vs the Mariners this year, but they are due for some runs and with him struggling right now they should get them, while the Angels get their fair share off of a bad bad pitcher. 8 runs should be Easy in this one.

2 UNIT PLAYS

Arizona/ Colorado Over 10: The Rockies score 5.66 rpg at home, including 6.71 rpg in their last 14 at Coors. Not only have they scored that much in their last 14 at home, but this staff has allowed 5.36 rpg as well. Esmil Rogers has a 9.77 ERA at home this year and he has a 6.08 ERA in his last 4 starts overall. The D-backs come in averaging 5.3 rpg in their last 10 games and they are 11th in the league oin scoring at 4.46 rpg. Wade Miley has just 3 starts on the year and a 3.94 ERA in those starts, while he has a 4.5 ERA in his 2 road starts this year. These two offenses have been good all year and I see no reason why they cant hit at least 11 runs in this one.

CLEVELAND -125 over Detroit: The Tigers are a very good team, but can they really be up for this early games vs Cleveland after a big series vs the ChiSox, in which they out scored them 35-11. This has been a home dominated series as the home team is 18-2 the last 20 times these teams have met and while the Tigers have the better starter on the mound, I will go with Cleveland to get the win here.

1 UNIT PLAYS

MINNESOTA +105 over Chicago: (Game 1) The Sox have to be demoralized after that series in detroit and that will allow Minnesota to take advantage. They haven't played that bad at home and should steal game 1 of the DH today.

PITTSBURGH -147 over Houston: Last week Houston sweep the Pirates in Houston. Payback starts tonight, behind James McDonald, who is 4-1 with a 3.20 ERA at home and 1-1 with a 2.03 ERA in 3 starts vs Houston this year.

SPORTS WAGERS

Houston +138 over PITTSBURGH

Aside from the Giants, these two teams have the worst OPS in the NL since the All-Star Break. The Pirates have struck out more than anyone since the All-Star break, and by a pretty wide margin. For Houston, Henry Sosa has been solid, if unspectacular, since his debut last month. He's been a virtual lock for six innings, and he turned in his best start of the season last time out against these Pirates. A chip in the July Jeff Keppinger trade, Sosa's very good career minor-league strikeout rate suggests some untapped strikeout ability (25 in 29 IP with the Astros). He’s gaining confidence and he’s getting better with each passing start. The Pirates are 1-8 streak when they’re favored and that alone makes them a good fade. They have two wins over their past eight and James MacDonald has none of those. For the season, McDonald's numbers don't wow us. He’s always had potential and he definitely has talent. However, he’s also inconsistent and his fly-ball bias profile continues to hurt him. MacDonald has a high WHIP of 1.47 and he also has a high strand rate of 84% over the past month. He’s certainly capable of throwing a good game against the Astros but he’s just as capable of getting lit up and he and the Pirates are simply too risky to bet as the chalk. Oh, one other side note to this game is that since the Astros brought him up, Jordan Schafer is 13-for-42 (.310 BA) and is three-for-three in stolen bases. He has 18 swipes in 238 AB this season. He also turned 25 on Sunday, so his car insurance premium should go down. Play: Houston +138 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles –113 over WASHINGTON

The Nats have lost 10 of 12 while the Dodgers have won 11 of 13 and once again, as he’s been his whole career, Hiroki Kuroda is undervalued. Kuroda is the Rodney Dangerfield of starting pitchers. Year after year, he posts solid ERAs, but has neither the wins nor the accolades to show for it. This year is another example: A 3.03 ERA and a 11-14 record. There's a good reason why Kuroda has been so good in recent years -- because his skills have been. Kuroda has a good strikeout rate and elite control. He's had some strand rate help this year, but his xERA still shows him to be a 3.50-ERA pitcher. At 36, there's certainly more downside than upside from here on out. But until further notice he remains one of the leagues most consistent and underappreciated starters. John Lannan has been really good against LH batters. Against righties he’s been awful, as he does not have a strikeout pitch against them and the Dodgers will load up here with some hot right-handed bats. Put together, Lannan’s 3.54 ERA likely will finish above 4.00 unless he can refine his approach on the fly vs. righties. That’s not likely to happen because in five years, Lannan has not been able to do that yet. Play: Los Angeles –113 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).

Milwaukee +109 over ST. LOUIS

Lots has been made of the pitching prowess in Philly, San Francisco and Atlanta this year. But since the All-Star break, the NL leaders in staff ERA are the Milwaukee Brewers. That's a large reason why the Brewers have the best record in the NL in the second half. Randy Wolf began 2011 as the forgotten man in an impressive Milwaukee starting rotation. But with just under a month left in the season, he’s actually second among Brewers starters in ERA. We all know he’s not the second best starter on this club and is probably the fifth best but he wins games, he keeps the Crew in games and he and the Crew are a way better option taking back a tag than Jake Westbrook and the Cards laying one. Westbrook has thrown 161 innings and has walked 61 and struck out 84. In other words, he rarely misses a bat. He has a 4.72 ERA and a WHIP of 1.50. That’s overall. At home, Westbrook has a 5.96 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. In 74 innings at Busch, he’s walked 32 and struck out 41. We could write a whole page of poor stats for Westbrook, both above the surface and under them but why bother? The guy is a useless inning eater that does nothing well and his chances of losing are far greater than his chances of winning. Play: Milwaukee +109 (Risking 2 units).

MINNESOTA +106 over Chicago (Game 1)
MINNESOTA +120 over Chicago (Game 2)

Both games are action and not starting pitchers. The Tigers pretty much put the White Sox out of their misery over the weekend. That sweep they suffered at the hands of the Tigers is not only tough to swallow, it’s tough to rebound back from. The South Side had played 134 games going into that series and were just 5½ games out with a chance to cut it to 4½ or even 2½. They lost the opener and then blew an 8-1 lead in the second game. That took the wind out of their sail and it all came to a head yesterday when they were destroyed 18-2 and now the Twinkies know they can put the proverbial final nail in their coffin. Mentally, the White Sox vacation started after Saturday’s loss and now they have to play the dreaded double-header. They play this pair with little or no motivation and they’ll also play it with a taxed bullpen. In the opener, Philip Humber makes his first start in 17 days after coming off the DL with a head injury. Humber was a huge 1H surprise and at one point finished seven IP in nine of 10 starts. But in his six 2H starts, Humber has posted a 5.94 ERA and that lines up with his very average stuff. Anthony Swarzak isn’t better than Humber. He has a 4.14 ERA in just six starts and would not be in the rotation had Francisco Liriano not gotten hurt. However, let’s forget the starters in both games, as this has nothing to do with them. The Twins were out of this thing by the end of April, a month into the season. They’ve played for nothing all season but they finally get to bring some misery to someone else and that someone else is their most hated rival, the Chicago White Sox. Don’t think for a second that the Twins won’t be amped right up to dig that grave. Play: Minnesota +106 (Risking 2 units). Play: Minnesota +120 (Risking 2 units).

Michael Alexander

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

TAMPA BAY is 12-4 in their last 16 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game

TAMPA BAY is 20-7 in Shields' last 27 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game

TAMPA BAY is 17-5 in their last 22 games as a favorite

Matt Fargo

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians

This could be the do or die series for the Indians as they trail Detroit by 6.5 games in the American League Central. They bring Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound for his seventh start since coming over from Colorado. He has been sensational at home and horrible on the road as he has an 11.77 ERA in three road starts compared to a 1.71 ERA in three home starts. All three of those starts were quality outings and Cleveland is a perfect 3-0 in those games. He looks for payback as Detroit roughed him up for eight runs in his last road start. Like Jimenez, Doug Fister has been great at home and below average on the road since coming to the Tigers. In three home starts he has a 1.66 ERA but on the road he has a 4.91 ERA in three starts. He is coming off three straight quality outings with Detroit winning all three of those games and this does include a gem in Tampa Bay. Even since coming to Detroit from Seattle, his run support on the road has been abysmal as in 14 road starts, he is getting just 2.4 rpg behind him. His teams are 3-11 in those games. 3* Cleveland Indians