John Ryan
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on the Phillies as they take on the Atlanta Braves in a huge showdown of the two best teams in the National League. Although Milwaukee has a better overall record I do believe that Atlanta has the superior pitching staff that would dominate a five or seven game series. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 95-26 making 40.7 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play against all dogs with a money line of +175 to +250 and is a cold hitting team batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher posting a WHIP <= 1.000 over his last three starts. Philadelphia has taken care of business against fellow contenders noting they are 51-18 (+29.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Braves trail the Phillies by 7 1/2 games in the NL East, but have the NL Wild Card all but won. Still, this could be a prelude to a NLCS matchup and the Phillies are going to play their best baseball of the season right now. I have been steadfast in my belief that the Phillies would improve and become more dominating as the season reached it’s end and now the Phillies are about to turn on the jets. The Braves have an excellent pitching staff, but the acquisition of Hunter Pence by the Phillies has created a large gap offensively between the two teams. The Braves rank 24th with 570 runs scored, 24th with a .248 team batting average, 24th with a .311 on-base-percentage, and 18th with a .394 slugging-percentage. Now, this weak hitting lineup has to face one of the best starters in the majors in Cliff Lee. Over the past three starts Lee has posted an incredible 0.79 ERA with a 0.794 WHIP and has struck out 21 batters in 22 2/3 innings pitched. For the season he has posted a 15-7 record with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.053 WHIP in 27 starts walking just 40 batters and striking out 198 batters. He has won six straight starts. Take the Phillies.
Steve Janus
Milwaukee Brewers +111
The Brewers are showing some solid value as a road underdog on Monday. St Louis swept the Brewers at Milwaukee last week. That should have the Brewers coming into this one looking for some big time revenge. Milwaukee is 15-9 at St Louis over the last three seasons.
Milwaukee will send out Randy Wolf against Jake Westbrook. While Westbrook got the best of Wolf in their recent matchup last Wednesday, there is some nice trends in favor of Wolf in this one.
Wolf is 12-2 against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is 5-1 in Wolfs last 6 starts vs. National League Central and 8-3 in Wolfs last 11 starts following a team loss in his previous start.
St Louis is just 2-6 in their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter and 1-4 in Westbrooks last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. BET THE CARDINALS!
Dave Price
1 Unit on Arizona D-backs +115
An Arizona club that has won 11 of its last 12 is showing value in the underdog role today, especially since it has won 5 straight and 11 of its last 15 against Colorado. Also, the Rockies have had no luck with Rogers on the mound against division opponents. He's just 1-8 on the money line in his last 9 against the NL West. We'll bet the D-backs.
David Banks
Miami vs. Maryland Under
Atlantic hosts Coastal in Monday night’s Labor Day ACC battle between the Maryland Terrapins and Miami Hurricanes. Kick-off from College park is slated for 8:00 ET with ESPN set to cover the national television broadcast.
When the line for this one first opened up, the Canes were installed hefty 5.5-point road favorites. However since, the NCAA has come down hard on the Miami program due to illegal benefits and other things found to be received by current and past players within the program. Because of it, new HC Al Golden has a steep uphill climb to contend with in order to get Miami back into the national spotlight, and they’re now dogged (+3) in their season opener. Though not many expected the Hurricanes to compete for the ACC title in 2011, the unavailability of starting QB Jacory Harris for tonight’s game will make it even tougher to swallow if indeed the Canes open their 2011-12 campaign off with a tally in the loss column.
After a one-year hiatus from the bowl season, former Terps head coach Ralph Friedgen knew he had a major chore ahead of him to hold onto his job. Even though Maryland matched its best mark since 2006 (9-4) and smashed East Carolina in the Military Bowl 51-20, “The Fridge” was shown the door to make room for new HC Randy Edsall. The Terrapins new head coach raised the football program from the ashes over the course of his 12 years in Storrs. The Huskies possessed solid defenses with excellent ground attacks the last couple seasons, and that was something Maryland’s brass couldn’t pass up with him willing to pick up his anchor and head southwest.
These clubs went at it a year ago for the first time since the 2006 season. The game was nip and tuck the whole way through, but Miami managed to hit pay dirt last when it scored a TD with just 37 ticks remaining on the clock to pull out the 26-20 come-from-behind win. However Maryland came in the money by sticking in front of the 10-point closing spread, and did beat Miami at home back in 2006 by a 14-13 final tally (-3). Miami’s 10-6 SU but just 6-10 ATS vs. ACC opposition the L/3 seasons, while the Terps are 6-10 SU but 9-6-1 ATS vs. conference opponents during that same stretch of time. Something has to give Monday night.
Insider Angles
Maryland -3½
We actually predicted that the Maryland Terrapins would upset the Miami Hurricanes outright in this final game of the opening weekend of the 2011 college football season before all the Miami suspensions, when the Canes were 5½ point favorites. Well, we are not that thrilled that Maryland is now the favorite, but we thought the Terps were the better team before the suspensions and we think they are the much better team now, so we have no qualms about laying this fairly small spot. Maryland improved greatly last season by going 9-4 straight up and then destroying East Carolina 51-20 in the Military Bowl. Still not satisfied though, the Terrapins have now brought in a new head coach in Randy Edsall, who rose the university of Connecticut from the ashes and is now expected to take Maryland to the next level. Edsall loves running the football, and he has a nice stable of running backs to work with at College Park, led by two top returnees in their leading rusher last year Davin Meggett and D.J. Adams, who tallied 11 touchdowns last season. Unlike his days at UConn though, Edsall also has a good pure passer at quarterback in ACC Rookie of the Year Danny O’Brien, who passed for over 2400 yards and 22 touchdowns as a freshman in 2010. Thus, Edsall will be able to diversify his play-calling and keep the undermanned Miami defense off balance. The Hurricanes have had eight players declared ineligible for this game, with the most notable being quarterback Jacory Harris, Miami’s leading receiver last year Travis Benjamin and three key starters on the defense in linebacker Sean Spence and safties Ray-Ray Armstrong and Vaughn Telemaque. The Canes have been notorious in recent years for underachieving even when they have been at full strength, and they simply cannot be trusted here with a backup quarterback, a lack of depth at wide receiver and with a competent passer in Maryland’s O’Brien expected to pick on what amounts to a backup Miami secondary. With that in mind, look for a comfortable Maryland victory on ESPN Monday night.
Jordan Haimowitz
Miami (Fla) vs. Maryland
Play: Miami (Fla) +4
The Hurricanes take the field tonight with a boatload of obstacles to overcome. They have had a handful of their star players suspended due to the off field allegations. However, undo believe most of the general public is making to big of a deal out of the impact it will have on the field. The U sports one of the best linebacking core's in all of NCAAF and their overall talet still trumps Maryland. At +4, this selection can not be ignored.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Indians -113
It's now or never for the Cleveland Indians. They trail the Detroit Tigers by 6.5 games in the AL Central division and really need a sweep this series. It all starts with Game 1 today.
Doug Fister is 2-7 with a 3.67 ERA in 14 road starts this season, and his teams are 3-11 in those games. Fister is 1-2 with a 3.12 ERA in six career starts against Cleveland, and his teams are 1-5 in those games.
Fister is 3-16 against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is 34-16 (+13.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. Bet the Indians Monday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -110
The Giants may not be able to rally to win the West a second straight year, but the reigning champs won't go down without a fight. San Francisco has won 6 of the last 8 in this series and 4 of the last 5 in San Diego. Plus, its in good hands with Bumgarner. The Giants have won 9 of his last 13 starts, and he's been brilliant in back-to-back wins, allowing 1 run in 14 1-3 innings. The Padres, meanwhile, have lost 6 of Stauffer's last 8 starts. We'll take the Giants.
Bryan Power
Braves @ Phillies
PICK: Under
Runs should be at a real premium tonight when the Braves face the Phillies. Atlanta starter Derek Lowe has a 1.50 ERA L3 starts while Philly starter Cliff Lee has a 0.79 ERA L3 starts. The Braves come in averaging just 3.8 runs per game vs. lefties this year and are 18-5 Under when off 6 or more home games. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is 22-10 Under after a one run loss and 25-12 Under when off back to back losses. Note that 16 of the last 22 meetings between these teams here in the City of Brotherly Love have gone Under the total.
MLB Predictions
Los Angeles Dodgers -105
With only an hour to game time I will make the write up a short one. Hiroki Kuroda is on the mound for the Dodgers, and he is one of the NL’s hottest pitchers right now. Kuroda was 5-1 in August with a 2.75 ERA over his 6 starts. John Lannan is on the rubber for the Nationals, and although he hasn’t pitched poorly, he has lost his last 4 starts. The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 overall, 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog, and 4-1 in their lat games vs a left handed starter. The Nationals are just 2-10 in their last 12 games overall, 3-7 in their last 10 vs NL West opponents, and 1-5 in their last 6 home games. Washington is also just 1-4 in Lannan’s last 5 home starts, and 1-4 in his last 5 starts vs a quality start in his last time out. The Dodgers have taken two of the three meetings between these two teams this year. Los Angeles is one of the hotter National League teams right now, while the Nats are one of the coldest. Give the pitching edge to the Dodgers as Kuroda has been stellar as of late. Take the Dodgers in a pick’em
Harry Bondi
Miami / Maryland Under 46.5
We'll go for our third-straight FREE PICK winner with the under tonight, as we expect all of the off-the-field distractions, coaching changes and weather to result in a sloppy game. Maryland will be adjusting to an entirely new coaching staff and new playbook and even though the Canes have made a ton of suspensions their defensive front seven may be the best and quickest that Maryland faces all season, so don't expect sophomore QB Danny O'Brien to have much time to make sound decisions as he gets used to a new offensive philosophy. Miami -- also adjusting to a new coaching staff -- will be without starting QB Jacory Harris and will lean heavily on its veteran offensive line by pounding the ball on the ground, which in turn will keep the clock ticking. All the ingredients are here for a low-scoring game.