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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday September 7,2009

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SPORTS ADVISORS

Cincinnati at Rutgers

The Bearcats will try to make it four in a row over Big East rival Rutgers when these two open the season with a conference clash at Rutgers Stadium in New Jersey.

Cincinnati won the Big East last season thanks to six straight wins (4-2 ATS) to close the regular season. The conference crown got the Bearcats into the Orange Bowl where they fell to Virginia Tech 20-7, getting upset as 2½-point favorites

Cincy coach Brian Kelly has Tony Pike back under center, coming off a 2008 campaign that saw him throw for 2,407 yards, 19 TDs and 11 INTs. However, Pike threw four of those INTs in the Orange Bowl loss, and he missed the Rutgers contest with a broken left arm.

After a brutal 1-5 (2-3 ATS) start to 2008, the Scarlet Knights rallied to win their final seven games, including a 63-14 dismantling of Louisville in the regular-season finale to make them bowl eligible. Rutgers then beat N.C. State 29-23 in the Papajohns.com Bowl in Alabama, pushing as a six-point favorite.

Knights coach Greg Schiano has not decided on a QB replacement for longtime starter Mike Teel, who graduated and is now with the Seattle Seahawks. Schiano said he might use all three of QBs, including fifth-year seniors Dom Natlae and Jabu Lovelace as well as true freshman Tom Savage.

The Bearcats have gotten the cash in five of the last seven meetings with Rutgers, dating back to 1989. Since they became Big East rivals in 2005, Cincinnati has gone 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS), winning each of the last three, including last year’s 13-10 home win, coming up short as a seven-point chalk. The underdog has cashed in each of the last three clashes between these two and seven of the last nine.

Cincinnati is on several positive ATS streaks, including 7-2 in September, 4-1 in Big East action, 9-1-1 as a ‘dog and 5-1-1 as a road pup. Meanwhile, the Scarlet Knights failed to cover in all four September games in 2008, but they’re 5-0-1 ATS in their last six overall, including four consecutive covers in Big East action.

It’s been all “overs” lately for the Bearcats, including four straight on the road, five of six in September, eight of 11 on grass and four of five as road ‘dogs. Rutgers has gone over the posted total in four straight Big East games and four of five on grass.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Miami, Fla. at (18) Florida State

The Hurricanes make the trek to Tallahassee to take on Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium for this annual battle between Atlantic Coast Conference rivals.

It was a season of streaks in 2008 for Miami, which opened 2-3 (2-2 ATS) before winning five straight (3-2 ATS) in the middle portion of the season, only to lose three straight (1-2 ATS) to finish the campaign. The season ended with the Hurricanes falling to California 24-17 in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco, though they covered as 10-point underdogs.

Miami’s third-year coach Randy Shannon has sophomore QB Jacory Harris (1,195 yards, 12 TDs, 5 INTs) back after he split time with Robert Marve last season. The ‘Canes will be without four key defensive players for the opener, including ends Eric Moncur and Adewale Ojomo, as well as DBs Ryan Hill and Vaughn Telemaque.

Florida State came out of the gate strong in 2008, winning six of seven (3-2 ATS) before alternating wins and losses over the final six games (3-2-1 ATS). The season ended on a strong note, though, as the Seminoles blew out Wisconsin 42-13 as a seven point favorite in the Champs Sports Bowl, the schools’ 27th consecutive bowl appearance.

Entering his 34th season with the Seminoles, 79-year-old coach Bobby Bowden has got junior QB Christian Ponder back after a solid sophomore campaign in which he threw for 2,006 yards and while rushing for 426 yards and four scores. However, Ponder nearly matched his TD production with 13 INTs.

Ponder torched the Hurricanes for 159 yards passing and 144 rushing in Florida State’s 41-39 victory last season, cashing as a one-point road ‘dog. Miami leads the series with the Seminoles, 30-23 SU, but Florida State has won and covered three of the last four after losing six straight to start the decade (1-5 ATS). The underdog has cashed in eight of the last 10 series meetings, including seven straight (not including one pick-em in 2004). Miami has had luck at Tallahassee recently, too, cashing in four of its last five visits to Doak Campbell Stadium.

The Hurricanes are on ATS runs of 6-2 on the road and 4-1 as a ‘dog, but they are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 ACC games. Florida State is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five has home chalk.

The “under” has been the play in 13 of Miami’s last 18 September kickoffs and four of its last five as a pup. Conversely, FSU is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 5-1 at home and 5-1 when favored. Finally, the under is on a 6-2 roll in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Tampa Bay (72-64) at N.Y. Yankees (87-49)

With its hopes of winning the A.L. wild card fading away, the freefalling Rays travel up the East Coast for a day-night doubleheader against the first-place Yankees in the Bronx. Tampa Bay’s Matt Garza (7-9, 4.01 ERA) is scheduled to oppose CC Sabathia (16-7, 3.48) in the opener, with Andy Sonnanstine (6-8, 6.62) matching up against New York’s A.J. Burnett (10-8, 4.29) in the nightcap.

Tampa Bay capped a rare losing homestand with Sunday’s 5-3 loss to the Tigers. Not only were the Rays swept in the three-game series, they blew late-inning leads in all three games, including a 3-1, ninth-inning advantage Sunday. The Rays dropped five of six on the homestand, including the last four in a row, and they’re just 3-9 in their last 12 contests to fall way off the pace in the wild-card race.

The Yankees return home following a 5-2 road trip to Baltimore and Toronto that ended with Sunday’s 14-8 loss to the Blue Jays. New York has won eight of its last 10 and is on additional surges of 49-18 overall, 39-13 at home, 23-6 against divisional foes, 11-4 against teams with a winning record, 7-3 on Monday and 30-10 against right-handed starters.

New York has won four of the last five meetings against Tampa Bay this year and is 55-24 in the last 79 series clashes in the Bronx. The visitor is 7-3 in the last 10 battles.

Garza got a no-decision in his team’s 8-5 home win over the Red Sox on Wednesday, yielding four runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings. The veteran right-hander has allowed 10 runs in his last two starts covering 11 2/3 innings (7.71 ERA). The Rays are 5-1 in Garza’s last six outings against A.L. East foes, but just 4-8 when he pitches on the road this year, with Garza going 3-5 with a 4.89 ERA as a visitor.

Sabathia is 6-0 in his last seven trips to the mound (all Yankees victories), posting a 2.44 ERA in his last six outings, including a 1.23 ERA in his last two starts at home in which he manhandled the Red Sox (5-0 on Aug. 8) and White Sox (5-2 on Aug. 28). The hefty lefty is 8-1 in nine starts since July 18, including 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in four games in the Bronx (all New York wins).

After getting demoted to Triple-A for more than two months, Sonnanstine returned to the big leagues on Tuesday and did not fare well against the Red Sox, allowing five runs (three earned) in four innings of an 8-4 home loss. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.46 ERA in his last three major-league starts going back to June, and he’s been a disaster on the road this year, going 1-7 with an 8.22 ERA (but 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA in two games at new Yankee Stadium).

Burnett squandered six runs (all earned) on 11 hits and two walks in just 5 1/3 innings at Baltimore on Tuesday, but New York rallied for a 9-6 victory, ending an 0-3 run behind the right-hander. Burnett is still 0-2 with a 9.92 ERA in his last three outings, but he’s 4-2 with a 3.47 ERA in 13 starts at new Yankee Stadium, with his squad going 10-3. In fact, with Burnett on the bump, New York is on surges of 9-4 overall, 7-1 at home and 6-1 against divisional rivals.

Garza has faced New York eight times in his career (seven starts), going 1-3 with a 3.80 ERA, including 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three contests this year, with Tampa Bay losing all three. In fact, the Rays are 0-5 in Garza’s last five appearances against the Yanks. Meanwhile, Sonnanstine is 2-2 with a 5.23 ERA in seven lifetime starts against the Bronx Bombers (0-1, 4.19 ERA in three starts this year).

Sabathia is 7-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 13 career starts against the Rays, but 0-1 with 5.93 ERA in two starts this year. Burnett is 9-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 19 starts versus Tampa Bay (2-0, 2.14 in three outings this season).

With Sabathia pitching, the over is 4-1 in his last five overall, but the under is 4-1-1 in his last six at home. Also, the under is 15-6-1 in Burnett’s last 22 starts overall, 6-0 in his last six at home and 7-3 in his last 10 against the A.L. East

The over is 7-3 in Sonnanstine’s last 10 starts overall, but with Garza pitching, the “under” is on streaks of 38-13-3 overall, 21-7-1 on the road, 17-5-1 when he pitches on grass and 7-1 against the A.L. East.

For Tampa Bay, the “over” is on runs of 4-1-1 overall, 5-0 on Monday, 5-1-1 against A.L. East foes and 7-0-1 in the second game of a doubleheader, but the under is 4-1 in its last five on the road. Meanwhile, New York has topped the total in five of its last six overall (all against divisional opponents) and six of its last seven against winning teams, but the under is 15-7-1 in the Yankees’ last 23 games in the Bronx and 4-1 in their last five on Monday.

Finally, in this rivalry, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall and 9-4 in New York.

ATS ADVANTAGE (GAME 1): N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER

ATS ADVANTAGE (GAME 2): N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER

Boston (79-57) at Chicago White Sox (68-70)

The Red Sox send struggling ace Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.87 ERA) back to the mound in the finale of a four-game series at US Cellular Field, with the White Sox countering with Mark Buehrle (11-7, 3.86), who will try once again to notch his first win in more than six weeks.

Chicago lost the first three meetings of the season to Boston 10 days ago at Fenway Park, getting outscored 21-13, but came back to win the series finale at Fenway and the first three games of this series by the combined tally of 26-8. However, the Red Sox put themselves in position to get a split of this series with Sunday’s 6-1 victory. Boston is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings in this rivalry.

The White Sox have followed up a five-game losing streak by going 4-1 in its last five, and they’re 11-4 in their last 15 at home against right-handed starters. On the downside, they’ve lost four of their last five on Monday, eight of 11 versus the A.L. East and 18 of 25 when closing out a four-game set.

Boston has lost three of its last five following a 7-1 uptick. Still, the Red Sox are on positive runs of 47-19 against the A.L. Central, 11-3 when facing teams with a losing record and 8-2 on Monday.

Beckett is actually coming off his best start in nearly a month, but he still gave up five runs (four earned) in six innings at Tampa Bay, getting a no-decision in his team’s 8-5 loss. Beckett is 6-4 with a 4.22 ERA in 14 road starts this season, but he’s surrendered 25 runs (24 earned) in his last four outings (two home, two road) covering 24 1/3 innings (8.88 ERA), yet remarkably Boston has managed to split those four games.

Despite Beckett’s struggles over the past month, the Red Sox are still 20-8 in his last 28 trips to the hill, 21-5 in his last 26 against losing teams, 15-3 in his last 18 against the A.L. Central and 5-0 when he closes out a four-game series. Boston has also won Beckett’s last four starts against Chicago, against whom the Texas native is 4-0 with a 3.68 ERA in five career efforts.

Buehrle has been much better in his last two starts, giving up two runs over six innings in each contest. On Thursday at Minnesota, he stood to a lose a 2-0 decision before the White Sox hit back-to-back home runs with two outs in the top of the ninth, then followed with two more runs in the inning to steal a 4-2 victory. Still, Buehrle remains winless in eight starts since his perfect game on July 23, going 0-4 with four no-decisions. He’s 7-4 with a 3.74 ERA in 16 starts this year on the South Side.

The ChiSox are an impressive 61-28 in Buehrle’s last 89 starts at US Cellular Field. Otherwise, though, Chicago behind Buehrle is in ruts of 2-6 overall, 4-10 on Monday, 2-6 when he faces Boston and 2-5 when he pitches at home against the BoSox. He’s 5-5 with a 4.71 ERA in 12 career outings against the Red Sox.

Chicago carries nothing but “under” trends, including 15-4 overall, 7-1 at home, 9-4 against the A.L. East, 7-3 on Monday, 38-18-2 against winning teams and 38-19-3 versus right-handed starters. Also, the under is 5-1 in Buehrle’s last six starts overall and 4-1 in his last five versus the A.L. East. Conversely, Boston is on “over” tears of 5-2-1 against southpaw starters and 5-0 with Beckett on the hill.

In this rivalry, the under is 7-3-1 in the last 10 meetings overall and 5-2 in the last seven battles on the South Side.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

 
Posted : September 6, 2009 10:57 pm
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Vernon Croy
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Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Minnesota Twins
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Twins are the better overall team here Monday night so we are getting great value. The Twins are a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 road games against a right hand starter and they are 10-2 overall in their last 12 games against a right hand starter. The Blue Jays are just 6-13 in their last 19 games in game 1 of a series and they are just 1-5 in their last 6 home games against at team that has a losing record on the road. The Jays are 0-6 in Scott Richmond's (6-8, 4.53) last 6 starts and Richmond has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 7.41. Jeff Manship (0-0, 3.75 ERA) pitched well in his only start for the Twins back on September.1 where he allowed just 4 hits over 5 innings against the White Sox. Take the Minnesota Twins Monday.

 
Posted : September 6, 2009 11:01 pm
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Rob Vinciletti
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Miami Florida vs. Florida State
Play: Miami Florida +6.5
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Miami qualifies in a solid opening week system that has cashed 16 of 21 times since 1992. What we want to do is play on certain road dogs in their first game,before a conference home game, if tonight's opponent is also playing in their first game of the season.This solid system cashed two of three times last year. Miami is playing this one with 41-39 home loss revenge from last years game which saw them get out rushed 281-54. Miami is coming off a 7-6 year where they only had 2 starters play all 13 games. Coach Shannon used over 20 true freshmen the second most in the country last year. This should help them this year as they have a new offensive coordinator, 8 returning starters on offense and a solid 2 back system in Cooper and James to go along with dynamic young QB Jacory Harris. Miami also has a solid defense which made big strides last year and also has 8 returning starters back. Miami is 10-3 ATS when the total is 45.5 to 49 and have covered 6 of 9 times as a road dog of 3.5 to 7. Florida.St is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against Miami.When playing at home versus an opponent with revenge the Seminoles are just 1-6 ats. The Seminoles are a lousy 2-7 straight up and against the spread as a home favorite from -3.5 to -7 since 1992. They have lost their top 3 tacklers on defense and may have trouble here with a motivated Miami team that no doubt has this game circled on their schedule. Regardless of the recent defensive injuries Miami will be fired up tonight.

 
Posted : September 6, 2009 11:02 pm
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Karl Garrett

Philadelphia at HOUSTON
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Sunday comp play winner on New York-Toronto OVER the total.

For Monday, the Phillies have struggled over this holiday weekend set in Houston, but the G-Man has a feeling this is going to be the game they hammer the Astros.

First off, Philadelphia will send J.A. Happ to the hill, and all the southpaw has done is go a blistering 5-2 with a 2.01 ERA in his 10 road starts this season. This will be Houston's first look at Happ, and I don't think it is going be be a successful one that is for sure.
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The Astros will send Brian Moehler to the hill, and Moehler's numbers do not instill confidence, as the righty is just 8-10 this season with an ERA of 5.04. At home the numbers are a bit worse, at 3-6 with an ERA of 6.00.

G-Man not only expects the Phillies to win this game, I expect them to win big.
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Take Philly on the RUN LINE.

3♦ PHILADELPHIA -1.5

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 6:43 am
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Drew Gordon

Texas -145 at CLEVELAND

Now on a 53-40 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Texas/Cleveland match up.
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Rangers need to stop the bleeding, and they get just what the doctor ordered facing a Cleveland club they've owned this season, with a starter who had his best game of the season against them. Read on...

Texas is a stellar 5-1 against the Tribe this season, and included in those wins is a real gem from Rangers rookie Tommy Hunter. He tossed 7 scoreless at Progressive Field back on August 12th, allowing 6 hits, while striking out 5 without issuing a single walk! Note, he's been a true road warrior this season, going 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA on the highway, including a quality effort in his last roadie at the Metrodome. Look for more of the same tonight!
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On the flip side, rookie Carlos Carrasco gets the nod for the Tribe, and based on his debut, I wouldn't expect much here. He got tagged for 6 runs on 9 hits in just 3 innings at Detroit Tuesday, and although the Rangers offense has been down of late, they'll get more than their share of oppurtunities against the young righty in this one. Sorry Indians-backers but I just wasn't impressed, and that's not too surprising based on his rather ho-hum numbers coming out of Triple-A this year (11-10, 4.64 ERA).

Bottom line, this game (and series) has become critical for the Rangers, and with a wet-behind-the-ears rookie getting the start for Cleveland, the Rangers cannot afford a letdown here. Look for Texas to make it 6-1 against the Tribe after tonight, as Tommy Hunter once again locks down this Indians offense tonight. Rangers roll!
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Take Texas behind Hunter over Cleveland and Carrasco in this MLB match up.

3♦ TEXAS

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 6:44 am
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Dominic Fazzini

Texas -145 at CLEVELAND
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Pitching has helped keep Texas in the playoff race this season, and rookie Tommy Hunter (7-3, 3.14 ERA) has given the Rangers' rotation a big boost.

Hunter hasn't allowed more than four earned runs in any of his 13 starts this season, and the right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA in five road outings this year.

He allowed four runs and five hits in seven innings Wednesday in a 6-4 victory over Toronto. Hunter had his best outing of the season against Cleveland on Aug. 12, when he gave up six hits in 7 2/3 scoreless innings.

Indians starter Carlos Carrasco (0-1, 18.00) was pounded early and often in his major league debut Tuesday at Detroit, allowing six runs on nine hits and three walks in three innings, including four runs and six hits in the first inning.
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The rookie right-hander, who was acquired from Philadelphia in the Cliff Lee trade, might fare a little better than that today, especially with Michael Young and Josh Hamilton absent from the Rangers' lineup, but Texas is going to be looking to get its bats going today, especially after being shut out Sunday by Baltimore.

Texas is 5-1 against Cleveland this year, and it should be focused after two straight losses. Take the Rangers to take today's game.

3♦ TEXAS

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 6:44 am
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Jeff Benton

Texas -145 at CLEVELAND
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For Labor Day, we’ll go back to the baseball diamond and lay the reasonable price with the Rangers at Cleveland.

This one’s all about rookie right-hander Tommy Hunter. The kid from Alabama has been a big-time surprise for Texas this season, going 7-3 with a 3.14 ERA in 13 starts. He’s pitched at least six innings in seven of his last 10 starts and has made it through at least five innings in every game – trust me, that’s NOT easy for rookie pitchers to accomplish.
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Hunter’s most impressive performance so far probably came -- coincidentally -- in Cleveland a month ago. In that contest, he shutout the Tribe over a career-high 7 2/3 innings, allowing just six hits and no walks in a 5-0 victory. The Rangers are 8-5 behind Hunter, including 6-3 in his last nine starts. Also, the right-hander has given up three earned runs or fewer in all five of his road outings, posting a stellar 2.20 ERA.

Another reason to love the Rangers is the state of these two franchises. Texas is obviously challenging Boston for the A.L. wild card, while the Indians not only are playing out the string, but every key player they had to start the season is gone: The Indians traded Victor Martinez, Mark DeRosa and Cliff Lee, while Grady Sizemore has been injured all year and was just shut down earlier this week.
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The Rangers have won five of six against Cleveland this season, outscoring the Indians 38-15 in those five victories. Throw in the fact that Cleveland is going with rookie Carlos Carrasco on the mound – Carrasco gave up six runs in three innings in his major-league debut Tuesday at Detroit, losing 8-5 – and this one’s a no-brainer. Back Hunter and the Rangers, who are 20-8 in their last 29 games when favored.

4♦ TEXAS

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 6:45 am
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Sports Gambling Hotline

Cincinnati +5 at RUTGERS

On a 30-14-3 comp play run the last 47 days!
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For Labor Day Monday, we will grab the points in New Jersey, as we feel Cincinnati is a "live dog" in their opening game at Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights will be hard-pressed to find a replacement for departed QB Mike Teel, and we just don't see them stretching the margin in this game against a capable Cincy team.

The Bearcats have lost a ton on defense to graduation and the NFL, but leave it to coach Brian Kelly to find a way to compete in this game. Afterall, the 'Cats do have the services of QB Pike back for his senior season, and Cincinnati is 6-1 against the spread their last 7 as an underdog.
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Cincy has also won the last 3 series meetings versus the Knights, while Rutgers is no better than 5-6 against the spread their last 11 as a home favorite.

Look for the points to work in this game.
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Play on Cincinnati plus the points.

2♦ CINCINNATI

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 6:46 am
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Bobby Maxwell

Miami at FLORIDA STATE -6
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Today's FREE winner comes to you from the college gridiron as I go with Florida State hosting Miami.

Why am I laying the chalk with Florida State tonight, because the Seminoles made great strides last season and they've got a quarterback that is ready for a breakout season. Look for Christian Ponder to deliver a breakout performance in the opener tonight and lead Bobby Bowden and Florida State back into national prominence.

Ponder, a junior, threw for 2006 yards and 14 TDs a a season ago and he rushed for 426 yards and four TDs. Now he's bigger, stronger and faster and you're going to see him go through the Hurricanes tonight in front of a raucous home crowd. Last season, Ponder had to split time with Drew Weatherford, but the keys to the team have been handed over to him now. This is his team.
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Ponder threw for 159 yards and rushed for 144 in Florida State's 41-39 win in Miami and after a long stretch of futility to start the decade against their rivals, the Seminoles have won three of the last four and gotten the cash in each of the three wins.

Miami has had some late training camp injuries that will hamper the defense, losing four key players on that side of the ball in DE Eric Moncur and DE Adewale Ojomo early in camp and then just Saturday losing DBs Ryan Hill and Vaughn Telemaque with shoulder injuries that will have them sidelined tonight.

Florida State crushed Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl last season, winning 42-13 as a seven-point favorite. The Noles are on ATS runs of 4-1 in their last five as a favorite and 4-1 in their last five as a home favorite. Meanwhile, on the other side, Miami is just 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 ACC contests.
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Bowden has gotten over the "wide right" problems and the Seminoles now have the confidence that they are supposed to beat Miami. Go ahead and lay the chalk with no fear in this one. Florida State wins it 35-17.

2♦ FLORIDA STATE

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 6:47 am
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DAVE COKIN
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MINNESOTA TWINS / TORONTO BLUE JAYS
TAKE: MINNESOTA TWINS
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Jeff Manship has looked pretty good so far for the Twins and he'll have a decent shot at a win today against Toronto. The Blue Jays went wild against the Yankees on Sunday, but this is a mediocre team that's playing out the string. The Twins need every game as they strive to catch the Tigers, and here's one they've got a decent shot to get. Minnesota is certainly not the most reliable road entry in the world, but I'll give them a try today.

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 6:59 am
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JIM FEIST
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CINCINNATI REDS / COLORADO ROCKIES
TAKE: UNDER
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The Colorado Rockies closed the gap in the NL West to just 3 1/2 games with their win on Sunday, coupled with a Dodgers loss. The Rockies are tops in the Wild Card race with a two game lead over San Francisco. The Rockies are just about average in pitching, but they can hit. The Rockies are second in the league in both runs per game and Home Runs. Todd Helton leads the club with a NL third best .325 batting average. The Reds have actually been very hot, winning seven straight games and eight of their last 10. Homer Bailey starts today for the Reds and he's been just as hot as the club, going 3-0 in his last three starts with a 1.69 ERA. Ubaldo Jimenez hasn't been a slouch for the Rockies with a 2-1 record his last three starts and a 2.35 ERA. Add to that a career 1.80 ERA against the Reds in 20 innings and we have the makings of a great pitcher duel here on Monday. Take the UNDER as both clubs will be looking to scratch across a few runs in this one.

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 7:00 am
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BIG AL
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Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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At 1:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Minnesota Twins. After an incredibly promising start which saw him go undefeated (5-0) with a 2.67 ERA after the first month of the regular season, it's been a different story lately for Toronto's second-year righthander Scott Richmond. Since the end of June, Richmond has seen his ERA go from 3.69 to 4.53 with his most recent start, and over his last three starts, Richmond is 0-2 with an unsightly ERA of 7.94. But there are at least three reasons to like his chances this afternoon. First, in his last four starts, Richmond has faced arguably the four best teams in the American League, the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Rangers. Second, in his last seven starts, Richmond has had three at home, and in those he has pitched very well with quality outings each time against the Angels, Rays, and Reds. Third, Richmond gets a great matchup at home today, facing a rookie with only one start under his belt in Minnesota's righthander Jeff Manship. Although Manship pitched well in his starting debut last time out, he hasn't shown the kind of stuff that would indicate that he is a top prospect, either at the Major or Minor League level. Before being brought up to the big league club this season, Manship pitched in the Minors since 2006, but never above AA ball. And in his only action at that level at AA New Britain, Manship went 3-6 with a 4.46 ERA in 14 starts. This series has not been kind to the Twins in the past as they have gone 7-21 in the last 28 meetings. Take the Jays

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 7:01 am
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Frank Jordan
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Miami Florida vs. Florida State
Play: Florida State -6.5
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Miami Florida finished 7-6 and only 4-4 in conference play as they start the year off with a tough opponent in Florida State. Florida State went 9-4 and won the Atlantic division of the ACC with a 5-3 conference record. In a battle of Florida look for Florida State to win their home opener as they continue to be an elite team while Miami is still rebuilding. Play Florida State

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 7:02 am
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ATS CONSULTANTS

NEWSLETTER PLAYS

Colorado over Cincinnati 8-2 - 2* Preferred Play
over in the LA Angels/Kansas City game - 2* Preferred Play

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 7:08 am
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MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

RUTGERS over Cincinnati by 1
Despite an 11-3 season, Brian Kelly’s Bearcats are one of a handful of Big East squads on the outside (of the Top 25) looking in. Greg Schiano’s Scarlet Knights are another one of those Big East outsiders, which makes this a crucial early season battle for national notoriety as well as conference supremacy. Schiano will have to get it done for the first time since 2004 without 4-year starting QB Mike Teel and, besides the AWESOME ANGLE demanding a ‘play against’ Rutgers, our own powerful database points us in the visitors’ direction. The dog is a solid 6-1 ATS in this series and Kelly has been golden in this opening week role as he’s a money-making 12-2-2 ATS when taking 12 or less points. Couple that with the Knights’ 0-9 ATS log their last 9 as favorites of less than 7 points and their 1-4 ATS mark as favorites with conference revenge and, suddenly, our ‘Angle’ becomes even more awesome. Cincy’s 4-0 ATS weekday mark has the hosts ‘laboring’ all night. Grab the points.

Miami Fla over FLORIDA ST by 1
The Canes’ brutal opening 4-game schedule finds them in the cozy confines of Doak Campbell Stadium on Labor Day. Yes, we did say cozy confines! After all, they’ve won three of the last four SU and four of the last five ATS in Bobby’s backyard. In fact, this has turned into a dog series of late with the puppy fetching the bone in seven of the last eight contests. With QB’s leaving South Florida faster than dogs leaving Philly, the onus squarely falls on the shoulders of Jacory Harris. Harris has promised Miami fans a national championship as well as a Heisman Trophy and if his 30-0 high school record is any indication of his ability, Randy Shannon’s program might very well be in good hands. Recent infractions have ol’ Bobby’s wins dropping quicker than a Heidi Fleiss call girl and his 2-7 ATS mark as conference favorites of 6 or less points doesn’t give us any confidence he will add to the win total this week. Nor does his 2-7 ATS log versus a conference opponent with revenge. ‘U’ know what to do.

Awesome Angle of the Week 13-1

PLAY AGAINST any college conference team in Game One of the season if they are playing with triple revenge exact.

Play Against: RUTGERS

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 7:11 am
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