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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday September 7,2009

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THE GOLD SHEET

Cincinnati 24 - RUTGERS 19—With Cincy trying to replace 10 defensive starters from LY’s Orange Bowl squad, advantage to Scarlet Knight stop unit that HC Schiano calls the deepest in his tenure at Rutgers. But Bearcats own even bigger edge at QB with 6-6 sr. Pike back at helm after throwing for 2407 yards & 19 TDs on 61% last year despite starting just 9 games. Meanwhile, Scarlet Knight scouts predicting that lightly-regarded sr. Natlale unlikely to keep starting job away from blue-chip true frosh Savage very long. Cincy is 6-1 as a dog (winning 5 of those straight up) under meticulous HC Kelly, so small upset no surprise.
(08-CINCY 13-Rutgers 10...15-15 C.31/97 R.29/62 C.21/29/0/239 R.20/36/0/192 C.0 R.0)
(08-CINCY -7' 13-10 07-Cincy +3' 28-23 06-CINCY +6' 30-11...SR: Rutgers 7-6-1)

FLORIDA STATE 24 - Miami-Florida 23—Seminole offense developing a more macho identity under o.c./HC-in-waiting Fisher, and almost everyone is back from OL that plowed the way for 179 ypg rushing in 2008. But even though FSU attack perhaps a little further ahead of Miami’s right now, compelled to favor recent series history, which has seen dog win straight up in previous 4 meetings (and 5 of last 6). Lanky Hurricane soph QB Harris has reportedly been a quick study in respected new o.c. Whipple’s scheme, and there’s depth & experience at RB & WR. Plus, Miami has a speedy, hard-hitting defense and a top-notch PK in jr. Bosher (18 of 20 FGs LY). Even if Seminoles able to escape with victory, points should work.
(08-Fla. St. 41-MIAMI 39...F.27-15 F.54/281 M.14/51 M.21/49/3/205 F.14/31/2/159 F.2 M
(08-Fsu +2 41-39 07-Miami +5' 37-29 06-Fsu +3' 13-10...SR: Florida St. 28-25)

Looking for an angle...

Miami-Florida at FLORIDA STATE (Monday)...Underdog has covered 7 of past 8 in this rivalry (the one loss in OT!).

Cincinnati at RUTGERS (Monday)...Cincy has won 3 straight vs. Rutgers, and dog has covered last 3 (including a pair of upsets) in series. Bearcats are an eye-popping 13-1 as single-digit dog since 2004! Coach Kelly’s crew pulled out 13-10 home victory LY despite failing to convert on 3rd down (0-11!) and committing 12 penalties. And Cincy’s RS frosh QB Anderson (21 of 29) subbed for injured starter Pike, who missed game after breaking his non throwing arm vs. Akron two weeks before.

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

CINCINNATI at RUTGERS
Cincy has won last 3 in series, although Bearcats couldn’t quite cover 13-10 win at Nippert LY. Brian Kelly 2-0 as Big East road dog since ‘07, and Cincy 6-1 vs. number last 7 as dog for Kelly. Kelly tams at CMU & Cincy now 10-1 their last 11 as dog. Schiano covered last 8 reg.-season games in ‘08, including last 4 at home, but Scarlet Knights had dropped previous 4 spread decisions at Rutgers Stadium. Tech edge-Cincy, based on series and Kelly trends.

MIAMI-FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE
7)...Last two meetings “over” in this series after previous 5 had gone “under” in rivalry. Road dog has won last three meetings. Canes covered 5 of 7 away from home LY, including 3 of 4 as road dog. Tech edge-slight to Miami, based on recent series trends.

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 7:14 am
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Jimmy the Moose
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
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The Dodgers have a 38-28 road record. LA has won 4 of their last 5 road games. In their last 53 divisional games the Dodgers are 36-17. Padilla takes the mound this afternoon and the Dodgers have won his 2 starts this season. Padilla's ERA is 2.61. In his last 5 starts vs. the D'Backs his team's record is 4-1. Arizona has lost 5 of their last 6 overall. In their last 7 games to open a series they are 2-5 in the opener. The D'Backs are 2-5 in Scherzer's last 7 starts as a home favorite between -110 & -150. Arizona has lost 2 of his 3 starts vs. the Dodgers. LA is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings.
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Play on the Los Angeles Dodgers

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 7:24 am
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Marc Lawrence
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Play: Boston Red Sox w/Beckett vs. Buerhle
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The Red Sox meet the White Sox on Labor Day when Josh Beckett takes the hill against Mark Buerhle in the Windy City. Becket enters today's contest with wins in 13 of his last 18 team starts knowing he is 5-0 with a 3.68 ERA in his career team starts against the Pale Hose. On the flip side, Buerhle is just 2-6 with a 5.49 ERA in his eight starts since pitching his perfect game two months ago. He's also 2-6 with a 6.56 ERA in his last eight team starts against the Bosox. With that we'll look for more of the same here today.

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 7:27 am
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Stephen Nover

Texas at CLEVELAND
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Tommy Hunter is having an excellent season for Texas. He's 7-3 with a 3.14 ERA. He's been at his best on the road with a 2-1 mark and 2.20 ERA.

The Indians are averaging three runs per game in their last seven games. They have lost Grady Sizemore for the season.

I'm expecting Cleveland starter Carlos Carrasco to pitch much better in his second big league start than he did in his debut on Tuesday at Detroit when the Tigers smacked him around. Carrasco was a good prospect for the Phillies. He was dealt to the Indians as part of the Cliff Lee deal.
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Carrasco should be more relaxed in his second outing, especially pitching at home. Carrasco was overpumped for his debut and wasn't locating his fastball well. But he did display potential with his slider and changeup. He has a hot closer to back him up. Kerry Wood has a 2.45 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings since the All-Star break.

The Rangers haven't scored in their last 15 innings. They are missing All-Stars Michael Young (hamstring) and Josh Hamilton (back).

Texas has been a big under team all season. The under has cashed 20 of the past 28 times the Rangers have been favored. The under also is 37-15-2 in Texas' last 54 road contests.

Carrasco is a right-hander. Texas is 42-19-4 to the under in its last 65 games versus a right-handed starter.
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There are also strong under trends for Cleveland. The Indians are 21-7-1 to the under in their last 29 home games. The under has cashed seven of the past eight times Cleveland has been a home underdog.

1♦ RANGERS/INDIANS UNDER

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 7:37 am
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DUNKEL INDEX

Texas at Cleveland
The Rangers look to build on their 8-2 record in their last 10 games as a favorite between -110 and -150. Texas is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-135)
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Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lilly) 14.352; Pittsburgh (McCuthcheon) 13.879
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-160); Under

Game 953-954: St. Louis at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.492; Milwaukee (Bush) 15.366
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-230); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-230); Under

Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 14.347; Houston (Moehler) 14.885
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-185); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+175); Under
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Game 957-958: Cincinnati at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.775; Colorado (Jimenez) 16.837
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-245); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-245); Under

Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Padilla) 14.819; Arizona (Scherzer) 15.821
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-115); Over

Game 961-962: San Diego at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Richard) 16.699; San Francisco (Penny) 15.627
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+160); Over
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Game 963-964: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.826; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.463
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-185); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+175); Under

Game 965-966: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) 15.636; NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.538
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-230); 10
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+210); Over
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Game 967-968: Minnesota at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Manship) 14.956; Toronto (Richmond) 15.585
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120); Over

Game 969-970: Boston at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 15.977; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.685
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Over
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Game 971-972: LA Angels at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 14.596; Kansas City (Davies) 14.719
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-180); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+170); Over

Game 973-974: Texas at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Hunter) 16.094; Cleveland (Carrasco) 14.976
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-135); Over

CFL
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Edmonton at Calgary
The Stampeders look to take advantage of an Edmonton team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win. Calgary is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-5 1/2)
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Game 405-406: Toronto at Hamilton
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 104.226; Hamilton 111.289
Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 7; 39 1/2
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 5 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-5 1/2); Under
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Game 407-408: Edmonton at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 109.127; Calgary 115.943
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 7; 54 1/2
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-5 1/2); Under

NCAA
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Miami (FL) at FSU
The Hurricanes look to build on their 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 games as a road underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Miami is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has FSU favored by just 2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (+5)
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Game 209-210: Cincinnati at Rutgers
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 93.194; Rutgers 103.975
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 11; 52
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 6; 50
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-6); Over
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Game 211-212: Miami (FL) at FSU
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 95.473; FSU 97.612
Dunkel Line: FSU by 2; 45
Vegas Line: FSU by 5; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (+5); Under

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 7:42 am
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Rocketman
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Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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Minnesota is 16-32 last 3 years when playing on Monday. Toronto bullpen has a 3.84 ERA at home this year. Toronto is 15-5 overall vs Minnesota last 3 years including a perfect 6-0 at home. Toronto has won 3 of the 4 meetings with Minnesota this year. Richmond is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA overall vs Minnesota since 1997. Twins are 17-40 in their last 57 vs. American League East. Blue Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 games as a home favorite. Blue Jays are 36-16 in their last 52 vs. American League Central. Twins are 7-21 in the last 28 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Toronto today!

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 8:28 am
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Craig Trapp

Cincinnati U vs. Rutgers
Play: Cincinnati +4.5
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No respect being shown to the Big East Champs from 2008. The Bearcats lost all but one defensive starters but the cabinets are not bear. This is a very athletic defense that should be able to do enough to keep them in this one. The stars of this Bearcats team are on the offensive side where they have great skilled players. Tony Pike will be slinging the ball around and he loves his big playmaker Gillyard.
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On the other side Rutgers loses a ton on offense and will have a new QB this year with zero experience. They do have there O line back but other than that an all new offense. The Scarlet Knights will struggle to score. Defense is the much better side of the ball for Rutgers. They really will have to carry this team as the offense looks like they might struggle early.
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Both teams have a ton of missing players from last year. In this case I will take the team that will put up points. Defense wins championships but Rutgers defense is not good enough to shut out the Cats.

Craig is making small M/L wager here and a big play on Cincy +4.5

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 8:29 am
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Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Toronto Blue Jays -115
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Just looking at the win column would suggest that the Blue Jays are struggling, but we can't discount that they are coming off series' against Tampa Bay, Boston, Texas, and New York. The Blue Jays are coming off a big momentum boosting win over the Yankees Sunday and now they get a team they have had great success against. The Twins are 0-7 in the last 7 meetings in Toronto and just 5-15 in all meetings over the last 3 seasons. While Richmond has struggled at times against the tough AL East, he has been pretty solid against the rest of the league. In fact, the Blue Jays are 4-1 in his last 5 starts vs. the American League Central. Expect to see rookie Jeff Manship struggle in his second career start against a pretty good Jays lineup. Plus, Manship can't expect much run support with the way Mauer and Morneau are struggling at the plate. Take Toronto.

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 8:30 am
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HENTAI SPORTS
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Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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Just looking at the win column would suggest that the Blue Jays are struggling, but we can’t discount that they are coming off series’ against Tampa Bay, Boston, Texas, and New York. The Blue Jays are coming off a big momentum boosting win over the Yankees Sunday and now they get a team they have had great success against. The Twins are 0-7 in the last 7 meetings in Toronto and just 5-15 in all meetings over the last 3 seasons. While Richmond has struggled at times against the tough AL East, he has been pretty solid against the rest of the league. In fact, the Blue Jays are 4-1 in his last 5 starts vs. the American League Central. Expect to see rookie Jeff Manship struggle in his second career start against a pretty good Jays lineup. Plus, Manship can’t expect much run support with the way Mauer and Morneau are struggling at the plate.

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 9:15 am
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Tom Freese
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Texas Rangers at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Texas Rangers
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Texas is 26-11 their last 37 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 9-4 off a loss. The Rangers are 18-8 their last 26 games as favorites and they are 5-1 their last 6 meetings with the Indians. Cleveland is 20-41 off a win and they are 5-12 after allowing 2 or less runs in their last game. The Indians are 0-6 vs. an opponent who allowed 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 2-5 their last 7 games overall. PLAY ON TEXAS

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 9:16 am
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MATT FARGO
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San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: Over 8
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San Francisco’s pitching has been outstanding of late as it has allowed two runs or fewer in six straight games, giving up an average of only 1.5 rpg over that span. This is now precisely to time to go against that especially with what we have going for the starting pitching. The Giants send Brad Penny to the mound and he is coming off a spectacular outing in his first start with San Francisco as he allowed no runs on five hits in eight innings at Philadelphia. We can look at that or we can look at what he has done as a whole. In 25 total starts, 24 coming with Boston, he has a 5.28 ERA and 1.49 WHIP and while it can be argued that was in the American League and now he is back in the National League, I still believe that he is not as good as what we saw last time out. He faced the Padres numerous times while with the Dodgers and in his last six starts, he has a 6.28 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. He will be opposed by Clayton Richard who has not looked much better in San Diego than he did in his time with the White Sox. Overall, he has a 4.61 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 21 starts and 12 relief appearances and pitching away from home has been even worse as he has a 5.06 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 11 starts and six appearances out of the bullpen. In five starts in San Diego, two have come at home and three on the road. The two home outings resulted in quality performances while the three road starts resulted in a 9.75 ERA and 2.58 WHIP with none of those being quality.
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3* San Diego Padres/San Francisco Giants Over

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 9:17 am
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ATS Consultants

Colorado Rockies/Cincinnati Reds UNDER 9.5
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Youngster Homer Bailey has been a prospect for what seems like forever, but he seems to finally be putting it together for the Reds. He’s only 5-4 with a 5.90 ERA for the season, but his recent efforts have been very strong. Bailey is 3-1 with a 3.67 ERA in his last 5 starts. Cincinnati believes Bailey has turned the corner and that he’ll be a fixture in the rotation for years to come.
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Ubaldo Jimenez (13-10, 3.28) would be a Cy Young candidate had it not been for April, where he was terrible. He’s been the best pitcher for Colorado during this unbelievable run they’ve been on since June. Colorado is leading the Wild Card race and are closing in on Los Angeles in the National League West. Jimenez is 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA in his last 5 starts. Brilliant.

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 9:25 am
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LT Profits

Miami (FL) at FSU
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We are rather high on the Florida State Seminoles this season, as we see them challenging for the ACC title. However, we are not as high on the Miami Hurricanes, as we feel they are overrated in the preseason polls, and we think the disparity between these teams will be apparent tonight.

The Seminoles return all five starters on the offensive line, which is great news for an offense looking for more balance this season. The running game was surprisingly strong last year averaging nearly 180 yards per game on almost 5.0 yards per carry, and while returning quarterback Christian Ponder had some trouble with his accuracy, he matured nicely as the season went on and should only get better this year with lots of time to throw.
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The Hurricanes are now turning quarterback duties over to Jacory Harris on a fulltime bass, and we are not so sure that is a good thing. He should struggle mightily vs. a Florida State defense that is one of the most athletic in the country, and it certainly hurts his cause tonight that Miami replaced two starters on the offensive line, making for a nightmarish matchup against the Seminoles front seven.

We look for the Florida State defense to basically manhandle the Miami offense tonight, and for a more balanced Seminoles offense to put up enough points to cover this spot.
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Pick: Florida State Seminoles -6 (-110)

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 9:37 am
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John Ryan
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Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
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3* graded play on the Phillies as they look to salvage one game against Houston set to start at 2:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 40-18 making 20.7 units since 2003. Play on road teams revenging a one run loss to opponent and is a good team posting a win percentage of 54% to 62% playing a marginal losing team posting a win percentage of 46% to 49%. Philadelphia is 19-9 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season. Happ has been hit around in his last 2 starts, but will get things right in this game. AiS shows an 85% probability that he will complete more than 6 innings and should that occur the Phillies have a 90% probability of winning the game. Happ is giving up more runs per game than his season stats, but only marginally and in a few situations there were just ?luck seeing eye? hits. Manuel is a solid 27-13 (+13.6 Units) against the money line after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less and 17-7 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses as the manager of the Phillies. Take the Phillies.

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 9:38 am
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EZWINNERS
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Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Minnesota Twins +106
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Minnesota's starting pitcher Jeff Manship made his first major league start on Tuesday against Chicago after five games out of the bullpen this season for the Twins. Manship was very solid in that start giving up just one run on four hits in five innings. Toronto's starting pitcher Scott Richmond has really struggled. Richmond has lost his last four decisions and has allowed at least three earned runs in six straight outings. The Blue Jays are 0-6 in Richmond's last six starts. Play on Minnesota.

 
Posted : September 7, 2009 9:55 am
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