Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, September 8

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Pittsburgh heads to Philadelphia tonight to face a Phillies team that is 5-0 in Kyle Kendrick's last 5 starts as a home underdog. Philadelphia is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+105)

Game 951-952: Atlanta at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 14.270; Washington (Fister) 15.894
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-140); Over

Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Locke) 15.286; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.585
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+105); Under

Game 955-956: St. Louis at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Miller) 14.183; Cincinnati (Axelrod) 15.517
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+115); Under

Game 957-958: Colorado at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Lyles) 13.894; NY Mets (Niese) 15.347
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-150); Over

Game 959-960: Miami at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Penny) 15.386; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 13.090
Dunkel Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+160); Over

Game 961-962: San Diego at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Despaigne) 12.921; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.161
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-160); Under

Game 963-964: LA Angels at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.451; Cleveland (Salazar) 16.979
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-115); Under

Game 965-966: Kansas City at Detroit (4:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.112; Detroit (Verlander) 15.079
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+125); Over

Game 967-968: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.491; Boston (Kelly) 14.818
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-120); Under

Game 969-970: Oakland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 14.765; White Sox (Noesi) 15.656
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+150); Over

Game 971-972: Houston at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 14.762; Seattle (Hernandez) 16.058
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-290); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-290); Under

Game 973-974: Chicago Cubs at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Turner) 15.834; Toronto (Stroman) 14.740
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+160); Over

EZWINNERS

New York Giants +5.5

When you think of the Giants you think of a struggling team last season with a quarterback that can't remember what color jersey he is wearing. I was shocked to see that Giants finished the pre-season with a 5-0 record. The pre-season usually doesn't mean much, but it has to be a confidence builder for a team that hit rock bottom last season. The running back tandem of Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams looked good in the pre-season and their ability to run the ball will help quarterback Eli Manning get back on track. The Giants defense also looks to be improved, especially in the secondary and they will be put to the test right out of the gate with a match up against Calvin Johnson and the Lions. Detroit has all the pieces to be an elite team but the fact is that they are just 5-7 against the spread in their last game as a favorite. I'll take the points with this ugly dog.

San Diego Chargers +3

The Cardinals did not make the playoff's last season despite a 10-6 record, but they had a great season and are a trendy pick to make the playoffs this season. I'm not so sure that will be the case. Arizona has taken some hits on the defensive side of the ball and they are not going to sneak up on anyone in the very tough NFC this season. The Cardinals lost leading tackler Karlos Dansby to the Browns in free agency, Darnell Dockett to a season ending injury and Daryl Washington to a season long suspension. The Chargers are a team that can make some noise again as well in the weak AFC. San Diego's quarterback Phillip Rivers put up some great numbers last season despite multiple injuries on the offensive side of the ball for the Chargers. Coming into this game San Diego is as healthy as they have been in over a year and they are a dangerous team. San Diego has thrived as an underdog recently and last season they were very good in close games having won five games by a touchdown or less. Take the points.

Dr Bob

DETROIT (-5.5) 26 NY Giants 17

After a poor performance in 2013 by the Giants offense that saw them produce only 18.4 points per game, OC Kevin Gilbride retired. It was clearly time for a change as the offense had become stagnant and Eli Manning was regressing. The decision to hire Ben McAdoo was an easy one the Giants felt, given the success he has had with the Packers the last six seasons. He came highly recommended from Aaron Rodgers and the Packers but the results have been terrible this preseason. It is only preseason, but you would expect at least some sign of competence. The Giants first team passing offense was consistently out of sync, with no real shining moments on which to point for improvement. It won’t be nearly as bad once the real games begin as game planning and scheming will provide improvement, but this offense does legitimately look like a work in progress. Part of the problem is the offensive line, which has been dealing with lots of injuries. The unit has undergone a major transformation this offseason, and in the wake of G Geoff Schwartz’s foot injury, additional changes have been made. 2nd round draft pick Weston Richburg will replace Schwartz at LG but there is concern at just about every spot. G Chris Snee retired at the start of training camp while fellow guard Kevin Boothe departed for the Raiders. T Will Beatty is returning after breaking his right leg last year and newcomer JD Walton is starting at center after missing the last two seasons with a major ankle injury. A lack of cohesion, multiple shuffling players and a new system will make things difficult for this Giants offense to get traction, especially early in the season.

The good news is that the defense appears to be improved with several new additions and a return to health of several others. While DE Justin Tuck and DT Linval Joseph depart, the Giants had depth and won’t lose much as 2013 2nd round draft choice Jonathan Hankins assumes a starting role alongside an assumed healthy Jason Pierre-Paul. The linebacking corps has been upgraded with Jameel McClain coming over from Baltimore and rookie 5th round draft choice Devon Kennard providing depth. The key here, however, is the return of Jon Beason, who returned to practice this week. On the back end, newcomers Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond will upgrade the cornerback group while the return of FS Stevie Brown will help at safety.

After a disappointing finish last season, the Lions fired head coach Jim Schwartz and brought in Jim Caldwell from Baltimore who should provide calm leadership and solid direction. As his offensive coordinator, Caldwell hired former Saints QB coach Joe Lombardi to direct an offense for the first time, bringing with him a version of the Saints schemes. He also chose another first time NFL coordinator in Teryl Austin, who comes over as former secondary coach of the Ravens.

The Lions offense is brimming with talent with QB Matt Stafford, RB Reggie Bush and WR Calvin Johnson. Whether this coaching staff can maximize their potential, while minimizing the QB’s mistakes, remains to be seen. There is reason for optimism here, however, with the addition of former Seahawk Golden Tate upgrading the #2 WR spot and the selection of TE Eric Ebron with the 10th pick in this years’ draft. There is continuity and young talent on the offensive line. Defensively, the front seven can be very good, led by DT’s Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh. There are some questions in the secondary, but Caldwell brought in former Raven SS James Ihedigbo to assist in the implementation of the defense.

The Giants appear to be vulnerable early with an offense trying to work out the kinks. I don’t like the matchup of an in-flux Giants offensive line working in a new system, facing a strong and talented Lions front line. While the Lions will be working with new systems on both sides of the ball as well, they should be able to control the line of scrimmage. I don’t have any situations active in this game but my ratings favor the Lions (-8.7). I’ll lean their way.

ARIZONA (-3) 27 San Diego 22

The Chargers took a big step forward last season, earning a 9-7 record and Wild Card playoff win after a disappointing 7-9 finish in 2012. The reasons behind their success were rooted in offensive scheme change as head coach Mike McCoy and OC Ken Whisenhunt shortened Rivers drop-backs and designed plays to create early separation. The results were excellent. By my metrics, Rivers and the Chargers passing offense rated out as third best on the season as they averaged 258 yards per game at 7.5 yps against teams that would typically allow 243 yards at 6.3 yps. With Whisenhunt now head coach of the Titans, QB coach Frank Reich takes over and may look to increase tempo this season, as is the fashion. The Chargers will benefit from the return of WR Malcolm Floyd and the emergence of young playmakers Keenan Allen and TE Ladarius Green. They also still have Antonio Gates and a versatile stable of talented backs behind Rivers.

If their defense improves this season, they will be tough to beat. The good news is that it really should. The Chargers lucked out when CB Brandon Flowers fell into their lap after bring cut by, of all people, division rival Kansas City. They drafted CB Jason Verrette out of TCU in the first round and he will provide depth behind incumbent CB Shareece Wright. With a return to health of LB Melvin Ingram, the pass rush should be improved. The safeties are solid and the defensive line has a lot of potential, particularly Corey Luiget who flashed with some dominant moments in the preseason. DC John Pagano is an excellent coach and with a complement of players that fit his scheme, this is a defense on the rise.

With a 10-6 record in 2013 in the tough NFC West, the Cardinals were one of the surprises of 2013. After struggling to open the season with a 3-4 record, the Cardinals adapted to new systems on both sides of the ball and hit their stride, finishing 7-2 over their last 9 games. It took a while for QB Carson Palmer to adjust to the new offense as in his first seven games he completed 60.5% of his passes 248.7 yards per game with 8 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. In the last 9 games of the season he completed 66.1% for 281.4 yards with 16 TD’s and only 9 interceptions. In addition, the offense has been upgraded this offseason with several changes on the offensive line, including the addition of former Oakland LT Jared Veldheer. Dynamic playmaker Andre Ellington will finally have a chance to show what he can do in an increased role at RB, and WR’s Ted Ginn, John Brown and Jaron Brown should improve the receiver depth. Defensively, the Cardinals will have some ground to make up after losing their top two LB’s in Daryl Washington (gone for the season due to suspension for another violation of the NFL's substance abuse policy) and Karlos Dansby (free agent signing in Cleveland). Pass rush is a concern with only remaining 36 year old John Abraham and DE Calais Campbell providing the bulk of the push. The loss of Darnell Dockett to a season ending ACL injury shouldn’t be as bad as it seems with some depth along the defensive line. We’ll see how much CB Antonio Cromartie has left but he was not very good last year with the Jets. If FS Tyrann Mathieu can come back and play well coming off injury, the rest of the secondary should be in good shape.

These teams are similar in many ways, featuring good QB play, a strong coaching staff and flawed but talented defenses. The Chargers have the ability to take advantage of the LB issues that Arizona is dealing with, presenting some combination of Danny Woodhead and TE’s Green and Gates as options. Meanwhile, projections are for the Cardinals to move the ball equally as well. The Chargers qualify in a negative 22-51-6 Week 1 situation that plays against them and my ratings favor the Cardinals (-4.1). I’ll lean with the Cardinals minus the short number.

Randall the Handle

Giants (0-0) at Lions (0-0)

The trust needle has automatically gone up since Jim Caldwell has replaced Jim Schwartz as coach of the untamed Lions. Caldwell brings the stability obtained from years at Indianapolis and the past couple in Baltimore. There is no void of talent in Detroit. Corralled properly, this could be a dangerous club. But changing a culture takes time and that makes spotting points in the price range a bit too risky right now. The Giants are being knocked by many, but the G-Men have a solid running attack and enough defensive experience to hang tough here. They won an overtime game on this field last season by a 23-20 count. TAKING: NY Giants +5½

Chargers (0-0) at Cardinals (0-0)

Both have scoring abilities, but Arizona’s stop unit is the stronger of the two, thus getting the nod here. San Diego’s pass defence was the worst in the AFC. Steps were taken to correct that, but adding free agents and draft picks to a new system takes time. The Cardinals are a 10-win team from a year ago and they are good on both sides of the ball. They won six of eight at home, with only losses to the 49ers and Seahawks, while allowing 17.8 points per game here. Cards are good out of the gate, having won four straight home openers. TAKING: CARDINALS –3

Sam Martin

San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: Arizona Cardinals

While the Cardinals are known for their aerial assault, it was the defense that led them to ten wins last year in perhaps the strongest division in the NFL. Those ten wins weren't enough to put the Cardinals into the playoffs, but expectations are high in the desert this year. We'll back Arizona at home Monday night looking for that defense to lead them to another win against an average San Diego team.

Chargers were hard to figure out last season, losing to the likes of Houston, Oakland, and Washington while coming up big in wins against Denver, Kansas City (twice) and a Wild Card win at Cincinnati. That inconsistency keeps us from releasing this play as a premium selection, but against this defense and with a home date against the defending Super Bowl champs up next, we'll lay the field goal with the home side here.

Rob Vinciletti

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -166

The Brewers have won 5 of 7 here vs Miami and will look to bounce back after losing to St. Louis on Sunday. Miami is 11-32 as a road dog in this range. The Brewers have Gallardo going and he is 5-0 with a 1.12 era vs Miami. Penny for Miami has a 6.61 era this season and has a career 5.07 era vs Milwaukee. The Brewers fit a solid league wide system that plays on home favorites that are off a home dog loss by 2 or more runs and scored 2 or less runs, vs an opponent off a home win by 2 or more runs. These home teams have won 11 of 13 times. Look for the Brewers to bounce back and take the Opener.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Sleepyj

Seattle -1.5 -120

King Felix tonight. The Seattle Mariners are now tied for the AL WildCard with Oakland. Seattle faces a team who they can simply dominate. Hernandez has faced the Astros lineup and shut them down back in may. Hernandez has had 2 tough games in a row and now gets a drop in class here tonight. king Felix has a ERA of 2.18 and a WHIP of just 0.90. Both teams have been hot but the mariners have so much more to play for. They now come back home as they closed out the 7 game road trip off a loss last night. The Mariners will be looking to tee off on Astros pitcher Brad Peacock. He is has hit serious down slope here as he has been lit up over his last 7 starts. I expect this one to get very ugly here. Seattle should try to make the night easy here with run support for Hernandez. Lets back the team with a monster on the mound and gunning for the playoffs.

Scott Spreitzer

Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets -145

We expect Colorado's 4-game winning streak to come to an end now that they're back on the road. The Rockies average less than 3 rpg in road night games against southpaws, and Niese has pitched well at home. Jordan Lyles has struggled since returning to the rotation. The right-hander has been tagged for a 6.03 ERA & 1.46 WHIP in his last six starts. I suspect he'll need more run support than his offense will supply in this one. I'm recommending a play on the Mets on Monday.

Jimmy Adams

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Baltimore Orioles -105

The offense continues for the Orioles as they come into Fenway tonight after a 7-5 win over the Rays yesterday. Nelson Cruz remains hot, hitting 2 more home runs to make it a MLB leading 39. Miguel Gonzalez will remain in top form as he’s coming off a complete game shutout of the Reds. He’s allowed a total of only 3 runs in his last 22 1/3 innings. Gonzalez also has had good success against the Red Sox, posting a 3-0 career record against them.

The Red Sox continue to play poor baseball, losing 15 of their last 20 games at home. The entire starting rotation has pitched terribly, and that’s not likely to change with Joe Kelly on the hill. Kelly is your typical average starter who can eat up some innings and allow 3+ runs. Against an offense like the O’s he’ll get banged around. Advantage in every category to Baltimore here at a very nice price range.

Jesse Schule

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners -1½ -115

Seattle has held scoreless in a 1-0 loss at Texas yesterday afternoon, but still the Mariners own a slim half game lead in the Wild Card standings. There is little room for error, as the Tigers are just a half game back.

Seattle sends ace Felix Hernandez to the mound in Game 1 of this home series versus Houston tonight, and Felix tossed a gem his last time out. Hernandez (14-5, 2.18 ERA) went eight strong innings allowing a single run on three hits in a win over Oakland. He's been a beast at home, going 9-3 with a 2.26 ERA in 14 starts at Safeco this year.

The Astros hand the ball to Brad Peacock, who was roughed up pretty good the last time he faced Seattle. Peacock (4-8, 5.01 ERA) allowed four runs on six hits and a pair of walks over 5 1/3 innings in a home loss to Seattle on July 2. Earlier in the season he took a loss at Seattle, putting him at 0-1 with a 6.35 ERA in two starts (11.1 innings). He's been terrible on the road all year, with a record of 1-5 with a 6.14 ERA.

Kyle Seager leads the Mariners with 23 home runs and 88 RBIs, and he's hit 16 of those home runs, and batted in 53 of those runs at Safeco. He's 6-for-16 with a home run versus Peacock in his career.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Jonathan Jorcin

NY Giants vs. Detroit Lions
Play: NY Giants +6½

The Lions will open the season at home and are big time favorites with a 6 ½ point spread. The Lions will surely get more offensively with Jim Caldwell taking over since he is such an offensive mind. With Calvin Johnson, Matt Stafford, and Reggie Bush running the offense, points should be plentiful, but it is a big spread for week 1. The Giants also come in with a new look offense as McAdoo has come in to implement his west coast offense, and Eli Manning has struggled in preseason. The big story here though is Rashad Jennings, finally able to be the guy in the backfield. Eli Manning and company will have a good ground game this year.

Jim Feist

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
Pick: Washington Nationals

As we come down the home stretch of the MLB season, the Washington Nationals have the NL East pretty well sewed-up with a seven game lead over the 2nd place Braves. That makes this a make or break series for the Braves. IF they can take at least two, then they shave into the lead. Also more important for the Braves is that they trail in the NL Wildcard race by 1/2 game to Pittsbugh and San Francisco. So while maybe the division crown is a long shot, a Wild Card is definitely in the mix. The main issue with the Braves is their offense, ranked 29th in runs, 24th in batting average and 26th in slugging percentage - not good numbers for a team looking to make the playoffs. Mike Minor starts for the Braves with a 6-9 record, 4.65 and mediocre 1.41 WHIP. Minor lost his last game, but has looked much better of late, going at least seven innings in each of his last four starts. Doug Fister has been a huge addition to the Nats team, posting a 12-6 record, 2.66 ERA and 1.15 WHIP since coming over from Detroit. Fister has lost three straight starts so look for the veteran to get back on track as the team heads to the post season. The Braves lack of offense is just what Fister needs to get back on track. Add to that a mediocre Braves pitcher and I'll lay the price here with the Nationals.

Art Aronson

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals -131

The visiting Atlanta Braves will send Mike Minor (6-9, 4.65 ERA) to the hill; Minor has pitched well of late but hasn’t gotten the run support to earn wins. Note that Minor has notched five straight quality starts over his last five trips to the mound but has just two wins to show for it. The lefty though has struggled against the Nationals in ten starts against them in posting a pedestrian 4.64 ERA over 52 innings of work. The Nationals counter with Doug Fister (12-6, 2.66 ERA) who is looking to bounce back off his third straight loss; I think he has good shot here though as he is 2-0 with a strong 1.80 ERA against Atlanta lifetime. This is a good situational play also, Washington gets set to start its second straight home stand, while the Braves are coming off a series in Miami, and as we know, the road has not been kind to Atlanta this year, it’s just 34-37 away from friendly confines (conversely, Washington is 43-27 in front of the home town crowd). The Nats are also looking for revenge after losing two of three in Atlanta last time the teams faced off; consider taking the home side.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

DAVE COKIN

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS
PLAY: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS +3

I’m sticking straight with my rankings on this game, and believe me when I say that I really blew it by not just going exclusively with my numbers yesterday. Live and learn.

I have the Chargers as one of the best offensive teams in the NFL entering the new season. I’m expecting what should be a well protected Philip Rivers to have a huge campaign, and basically don’t see much concern anywhere with this unit as long as the starters remain healthy. The bad news is that San Diego might well need to be outscoring their opponents, as I’m not nearly as bullish on their defense. But my overall pre-season power ratings have the Chargers as a team that will be playing in January, although I’ve still got them behind the Broncos in the AFC West.

I’m not as high on Arizona. The Cardinals should not be bad by any means. But when tabulating the overall results from my three sets of ratings (offense, defense and the frequently overlooked special teams) the bottom line calculated them as basically an average team. Obviously, these numbers aren’t chiseled in granite and it’s entirely possible I’ll just be dead wrong on some teams. But I thought the Cardinals might have enjoyed some good fortune at times last season, and I’ve got them well behind the two power teams in the NFC West and no better than middle of the pack overall.

It’s really as simple as that as far as tonight’s call is concerned. This game grades out virtually dead even when including the home field advantage, and that makes getting a field goal with the road team a rock solid value. I’m trusting the numbers and grabbing the Chargers with the points tonight.