Ben Burns
Atlanta vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
The Nationals have certainly had their share of problems with the Braves in the past, going just 4-9 against them this year. That obviously plays a major role in why they are "just" seven games ahead of Atlanta in the NL East. However, today I see them lengthening this lead with a win in the series opener.
We have an interesting pitching matchup Monday. Washington's Doug Fister has strong overall numbers for the year, but not recently. Atlanta's Mike Minor has overall numbers that aren't very good, but has been better lately. I think we will be seeing the "old" Fister here though. Atlanta's offensive numbers are simply not that impressive.
Remember that Fister had a three-start stretch where he didn't allow ANY runs over 21 innings before his last three. Facing an Atlanta offense that has been shut out four times in its last eight games, Sunday included, should see Fister get back on track. The last time Fister faced the Braves was June 21st and that start saw him toss eight scoreless innings.
If the Nationals can get to four runs in this game, then they should be in good shape. I say that because they have a 66-9 record this year when scoring that many times. They only needed three runs for the win yesterday.
Atlanta has scored only 15 runs total in its last eight games. Seven of those runs came in one game, so in the other seven they are barely averaging more than one run per game. They are second to last in the league in runs scored for the year.
Brandon Shively
New York Giants vs. Detrot Lions
Play: New York Giants +6½
I like the Giants and Eli Manning in this Monday Night Football game. The Giants finished the preseason 5-0 and showed poise with a couple come-from-behind wins vs. the Colts and the Jets. The Giants started the season off 0-6 last season and it is a BIG point of emphasis to get 2014 off to a winning start.
Many of the Giants problems have been corrected with personal changes and some new additions to the team. They now have a healthy running back finally in Rahsard Jennings and the rookie Andre Williams. Both guys are workhorses and can tote the load. They went and got Walter Thurmond from Seattle and Rodgers-Cromartie from Denver to tighten up the defense.
For the Lions, they have a new HC in Jim Caldwell. There are major concerns about the Lions defense also, especially on the defensive line as Nick Fairley got demoted. Rookie draft pick Kyle Van Noy just had surgery and their starting strong-side linebacker position is very inexperienced. Then there is the secondary which none of these guys have proved to be consistent lock down defenders and SS James Ihedigbo has been dealing with a personal ailment lately.
The Giants beat the Lions last season 23-20 @ Ford Field, and that was without Victor Cruz. The Giants won the game and only had 40 rushing yards as well. They have a solid backfield in 2014 and enough playmakers with Cruz,Randle, Jernigan, and the rookie Beckham Jr. if he plays in this game. Eli Manning has a career 28-18-2 ATS (60%) mark as a road dog. Stafford as a 12-18 ATS (40%) career home mark and is 16-25-2 ATS (37%) playing with revenge. Let's take the money and run in this game as the Giants have the more polished quarterback and the better coach in this one to get us the money.
Key Trends:
The Giants finished the season 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
The Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. the NFC
The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC
Head-to-Head Trends:
The road team is 6- 0 ATS the last 6 meetings.
BONES BEST BETS
ROYALS ML + ROYALS/TIGERS – OVER 9 +360
Better team at plus money, and a playable total for two pitchers that have struggled this season. Guthrie owns a 4.31 ERA on the season while Verlander is at 4.8. Both of these pitchers have struggled big time against the opposing team this year – however we’re going to take the hotter/better team in the Royals in this spot.
CARDINALS ML + CARDINALS/REDS – UNDER 8 +238
Cardinals are red hot with wins in 8 of 9. Shelby Miller is also on fire with a 0.95 WHIP and a 2.25 ERA over his past 3 starts. Axelrod for the Reds has decent numbers over his three starts with a 1.06 WHIP and a 3.18 ERA.
NATIONALS ML + BRAVES/NATIONALS – UNDER 7.5 +215
The Nats are 17 games above .500 at home and the Braves are 5 games below .500 on the road. Fister has struggled a bit lately but he still has a 2.14 ERA and 0.91 WHIP at home this year. Minor has a 4.41 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the road this year. The Braves have been shut out in 4 of their last 8 games and they have scored a total of 15 runs over their past 8 games. Lots of value in the Nats and the under today.
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas City Royals +125
The Royals are showing great value as a road underdog against the Tigers. Kansas City has a 2-game lead over Detroit in the AL Central and the Tigers are simply getting too much respect with Justin Verlander on the mound. This is simply not the same Verlander this season as compared to previous years. He's got a 4.75 ERA and 1.444 WHIP over 28 starts and a mere 5.12 ERA and 1.655 WHIP over his last 3 starts. What's even more important is his recent performance against the Royals. In his last 2 starts versus Kansas City he's got a 8.03 ERA, allowing 11 runs on 18 hits and 3 walks with just 5 strikeouts over 12 1/3 innings of work.
Kansas City will counter with Jeremy Guthrie, who has a respectable 3.84 ERA and 1.193 WHIP over 14 road starts (9-5 team record) and a 3.00 ERA and 1.190 WHIP over his last 3 outings. Last time Guthrie took the mound against the Tigers in Detroit he held them to 1 run on 4 hits with 9 strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings of a Royals victory.
The Tigers are just 3-9 in their last 12 home games after batting .290 or better over their last 20 games, while the Royals are 23-8 in their last 31 after posting an OBP of .300 or worse over their last 15 games and 16-3 in their last 19 after batting .240 or worse over their last 15. Kansas City is also 15-5 in their last 20 road games overall and 25-9 in their last 34 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. These trends combine to form a 77% (88-27) system in favor of the Royals.
Ray Monohan
Marlins vs. Brewers
Play: Over 8½
There is no way to sugar coat it - Milwaukee did not look very good over the weekend and looks very unlikely to make the playoffs. However, tonight they get the luxury of facing retreat Brad Penny, ye of the ERA over 6 after being out of the Majors for almost two seasons. Recent performances aside the Brew Crew are a pretty good offensive club and their own starter, Yovani Gallardo is not what he used to be. Put all of that together the total seems a little low for tonight.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
San Diego/Arizona Over 46.5: The preseason game between these teams put up just 21 total points, but both teams also played very vanilla on offense, knowing that they were gonna meet again in week 1. This one will be different as we should see allot more scoring here. The Chargers have an explosive offense that is led by the resurgent Philip Rivers, who is now in the 2nd year of Mike McCoy's system, so I look for him to have a bigger year this time around. The Chargers have an average set of WRs, but they also did last year and were still able to put up 24 ppg. They also have a solid running game, while will then help open holes downfield for Rivers to make some big plays. The defense is clearly the weakness of the Chargers, especially along the line and the defense backfield, where they rate 26th or worse on both units. Carson Palmer and the first team offense had a nice showing in the preseason and I expect that to continue in this one. They still have no running game, but the WR corps rates as one of the best in the league. This one should be a fun one with a game that is played in the 50s.
BEST OF THE REST
NY Giants +6.5 over DETROIT: In looking over positional ranking from both teams they look fairly even. Detroit has an edge on offense, but the Giants have the edge on defense. I have also looked at some power ratings from a few sources and all have the the Giants with the higher rating, including Phil Steele. Now that begs the next question. Is the Detroit home field advantage nearly a touchdown. I don't think so. The Lions are just 4-9 SU in their last 13 home games and have gone 4-8 ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite. The Lions are 5-1 as Monday night faves, but just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs the Giants and 5 of their last 6 home games last year were decided by 3 points or less. The Giants had some offensive issues in the preseason, but the Detroit offense didn't look good either. The Both teams are average in their front 7s, but the Giants have the 3rd rated secondary in the league, while Detroit's rates as 23rd. with two passing teams on the field I feel that gives a big edge to the Giants. Detroit doesn't deserve to be laying 6.5 points here, especially when the teams are fairly even on paper. They may win this one, but by no more than a FG.
Jack Jones
Atlanta Braves +130
The Atlanta Braves (74-69) trail the Pittsburgh Pirates by a half-game for the final wild card spot in the National League. The Washington Nationals (80-61) all but have the NL East wrapped up. Look for the Braves to take Game 1 of this series at a great price tonight.
Mike Minor has saved his best stuff for last. The left-hander has gone 1-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in his last three starts. He has only allowed five earned runs and 18 base runners over 22 innings during this stretch.
Doug Fister, on the other hand, has really struggled of late and should not be favored in this one because of it. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.860 WHIP in his last three starts. He has allowed 11 earned runs, five homers and 31 base runners over 16 2/3 innings over this span.
The Braves are 6-0 in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Atlanta is 13-5 in Minor's last 18 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Braves are 26-10 in the last 36 meetings, including 12-5 in their last 17 meetings in Washington.
Steve Janus
Baltimore Orioles -109
This is a great spot to jump on the Orioles as a small road favorite against the Red Sox on Monday. Baltimore comes in off a 7-5 win over the Rays on Sunday and are a strong 8-3 over their last 11 overall.
Hard to not like the Orioles chances with the way Miguel Gonzalez has been throwing. Gonzalez tossed a complete game 4-hit shutout against the Reds his last time out and has a 1.21 ERA and 0.717 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Gonzalez also has a strong history against the Red Sox. He's 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.163 WHIP over 4 career starts vs Boston.
Key Trends - Baltimore is 31-19 overall against the Red Sox over the last 3 seasons and 16-9 during this stretch when playing at Boston. The Orioles are also 12-3 in their last 15 during game 1 of a series, 22-7 in their last 29 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 8-2 in their last 10 with a total set at 9-10.5 runs.
System - Underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (BOSTON) - very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors are just 87-202 (30%) against the money line since 1997.
Dave Price
Pittsburgh Pirates -120
The Pirates have struggled on the road this season, but I don't expect them to struggle in this spot. They are 5-1 in their last six road games versus losing clubs and have won five of their last six in Philadelphia. They also appear to be in good hands with Jeff Locke toeing the rubber. The southpaw is 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA in three career starts versus Philadelphia. Kyle Kendrick's ERA (4.77) is over a run higher than Locke's. Plus, the right-hander has been rocked for nine earned runs in his last 12 innings of work against Pittsburgh.
John Ryan
Oakland A's vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Oakland A's -164
The A's have fallen off the cliff, but they are still a very strong team. Granted, they had the Division all but won about 6 weeks ago when they were nearly 30 games over 0.500 and find themselves as a Wild Card. Historically, all winning teams go through these abyss type situations and nearly all of them recover to previous elite levels of play. I strongly believe that playing the A's in this game, this series, and over the next three series will pay off a nice profit. The simulator shows a high probability that A's will win this game easily. Given that projection, I encourage you to make this a combination wager consisting of a 3* play using the line and a 3* play using the Run Line for a 6* wager amount. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 172-80 mark for 68% winners and has made 65 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play on road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (OAKLAND) with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season. Further, the CWS are just 13-39 (-25.3 Units) against the money line after a game with a combined score of 4 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. Take the A's as outlined.
Will Rogers
San Diego vs. LA Dodgers
Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5
The Dodgers won big again last night, completing the sweep against Arizona. They open a new series at home versus San Diego tonight, and with Clayton Kershaw on the mound in search of his major league leading 18th win, they are an enormous favorite in Game 1. I'll take LAD on the run line.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Kershaw (17-3, 1.70 ERA) has won three straight starts, allowing three runs over 24 innings during that span. He leads the major leagues in strikeouts with 202, and he's being mentioned as an MVP candidate. He's pitched well against the Padres posting a record of 1-0, 2.08 ERA in two previous meetings this year. San Diego will counter with rookie right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne, who is 1-4 with a 4.45 ERA on the road this year.
2. Adrian Gonzalez - The veteran first baseman is on fire of late, going 3-for-7 with 8 RBIs in his last two games.
3. X-Factor - The Padres rank dead last in all of baseball in runs scored, batting average, and almost all other offensive categories.
Nick Parsons
Oakland A's vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Oakland A's -164
I am playing on the Oakland A’s today against the Chicago White Sox. Both teams are struggling but the A’s are still playing for a playoff spot and the White Sox are just playing.
Oakland (80-62) are two games ahead of Seattle for the AL's top wild card spot. They have gone an abysmal, 8-18 since Aug. 9. They've also lost 10 of 12 on the road. The White Sox haven’t fared much better. They have lost 14 out of 18 and 14 of 21 at home. They are coming off a four game series, in which they score 6 runs and hit a measly .197.
Oakland is looking for a better performance from starter Sonny Gray (13-8, 3.25 ERA). Gray was tagged with six runs over five innings in a 6-5 loss to Seattle on Tuesday after allowing six in 15 1/3 innings in his previous two outings. Gray, 1-5 with a 5.11 ERA in his last seven starts, will face the White Sox for the first time.
Chicago will send out Hector Noesi (8-9, 4.70), who is 5-1 with a 3.49 ERA in his last six home starts. He's gone 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his last two overall and allowed three runs over seven innings in a 6-3 win in Minnesota on Tuesday.
Neither team is playing well at the moment but the A’s are playing for the postseason and the Sox are playing for next season. The A’s have the Mariners coming up this weekend for a three game series, so they need some momentum going into the series and the Sox are the right team to be playing to get it.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Giants +6 over DETROIT
The Giants stock hasn’t been this low to begin in a season in a very long time. New York is coming off a rough season in which they got off to a horrible 0-6 start before defeating Minnesota in Week 7. Many of last year’s losses by the G-Men were of the blowout variety (41-23, 38-0, 31-7, 37-14 and 23-0) and those have an even bigger impact on public perception. Still, the Giants won seven games, finished strong and had a very good off-season, most notably adding Rashad Jennings as the starting tailback. Losing Hakeem Nicks may leave a hole but the concerning part is that the Giants struggled all summer to install Ben McAdoo's Packer-ish offense. This is the first time in eight years that the Giants have to learn a new offense and it is just not going well. The offense looked stale and unimaginative last year. Now it just looks lost and confused. At least that’s what the media is trying to pound into everyone’s head but we’re not buying what the media and experts are selling. Tom Coughlin reveals nothing in preseason and Eli Manning and the rest of the offense is more than capable of picking up a new system. They also added a new weapon in WR Odell Beckham in the draft, along with center Weston Richburg. On defense they signed veteran cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie from Denver and Walter Thurmond from Seattle, and added in the draft a run stuffing DT in Jay Bromley. So the Giants appear to have made the right moves to strengthen their offense and defense where they needed it. As bad as the Giants were last year they were a dog of this many or more just twice and one of those games was in Seattle in mid-December. Public perception is way off on this edition of the Giants and that gives us a nice number to work with.
By contrast, the media and so-called experts love the Lions. They love offense, they love Matt Stafford and Megatron and they love that Jim Schwartz is gone. The Lions hired Jim Caldwell as the new head coach and Joe Lombardi was the Saints QB coach who will be installing the new offense. On paper, using a Saints passing scheme in Detroit sounds like a winner. The Lions might have the flair but they don't have the substance needed to sustain winning success in the NFL. But it's the little things, like depth and the overall 53-man talent that is lacking with this organization. Winning in the NFL isn't easy, especially when you can't get out of your own way. How many times have we seen the Lions lose games as a result of themselves, not the opposition? The hiring of head coach Jim Caldwell was an odd move because he’s laid back and doesn’t take that no-nonsense approach like winning coaches need at this level. Expect that lack of discipline to continue to be an issue. The Lions were favored by 6 or more twice last year (not including the game against Green Bay late in the season when Aaron Rodgers and several other key players were out). They were a 9½-point choice over these same Giants in Week 15 and lost outright and they were a 7½-point choice against Tampa in Week 10 and lost outright. That’s not to say Detroit will flounder but this team is not ready to be in this price range just yet, which makes us instant sellers against one of this year’s most overhyped teams.
SPORTS WAGERS
MILWAUKEE/Miami Over 8
Seven runs or less beats us and if these two pitchers met 50 times over the next 250 days, it would hit 7 or less probably about 10% of the time. Brad Penny is fill-in fodder. In three starts since joining the rotation, he has lasted a combined 13 innings with a BB/K split of 7/8. Over his last 16 innings, Penny has walked 10 and struck out 9. His swing and miss rate of 4% belongs in Double-A ball and if the Fish had another option, Penny would be nowhere near the mound. Penny comes in with a 1.96 WHIP, meaning he’s pitching with 2 runners on base every inning. His oppBA is .324, meaning that when he inevitably walks guys they usually come into score and that is evidenced by his 6.61 ERA. Milwaukee may go over this number on its own and chances are they put up a crooked number in at least one or two innings before Penny is yanked.
Yovani Gallardo is another pitcher in trouble with all the signs of fatigue being present. Gallardo has a BB/K split of 9/17 over his last 31 innings. A plunge in strikeout rate is a sure sign of fatigue. His fading swing and miss rate of 6% over that same span doesn't give much hope for a rebound either. Over his last 16 frames, covering three starts, Gallardo has been tagged for 19 hits, eight earned runs and he has walked 8 and struck out 8. Gallardo’s skills began to plummet in 2013 and while his surface stats suggest a minor rebound has occurred in 2014, his under the hood stats say he’s the same below average pitcher this year as he was last year. Now he’s tired and Miami figures to put up its share of runs too.
Jeff Alexander
Washington Nationals -135
The Nationals have won 12 of their last 15 at home and should keep right on rolling against an Atlanta team that has dropped 8 of its last 10 road games versus winning clubs. The Nats are 7-2 in Fister's home starts this season as he's compiled a tidy 2.17 ERA in these contests. He's also 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in a pair of starts versus Atlanta. Minor has a 4.40 road ERA on the season and a 4.64 ERA in 10 career starts versus Washington. The Braves are just 3-7 in Minor's last 10 division starts.