Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, September 9

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Houston at San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston's offense has regressed over the last two season and with aging veterans serving as the core of this unit, a return to the prolific offensive production of 2010 is unlikely. Instead the personality of this team is becoming more and more shaped by the defense orchestrated by defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. With eight starters returning from last season led by breakout star J.J. Watt along with the return from injury in their former first round draft choice Brian Cushing, defense should continue to shape the identity of this team. The Texans should dominate a rebuilding San Diego offense that enters this season with continued huge question marks with their both their offensive line and the wide receiver corps. The offensive line has been retooled in the offseason but these were mostly by players that would serve as mid-level backups in most other locations. The Chargers are not putting QB Philip Rivers in a position to succeed despite him suffering his worst two statistical season over the last two years. But while San Diego has a new head coach and offensive coordinator in Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt, the team did retain defensive coordinator John Pagano on the strength of a strong defensive unit that finished 6th in total defense last year. The Chargers have played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total. Furthermore, San Diego has played 5 of their last 6 opening games of a new season Under the Total while Houston has played 6 of their last 8 Week One contests Under the Total. Look for these respective team trends to continue in this MNF contest and take the Under in this one.

Jimmy Boyd

Miami Marlins +152

Henderson Alvarez has been a great starter for this Marlins team. Alvarez has a 3.95 ERA this season, and while his excellent pitching may not be reflected in his record, I don't expect that to be an issue today. Henderson has thrown a lot of great games, but Miami's lack of run support has been an issue. However, in the Marlin's past seven games they have scored an average of 5.3 runs per game with a .285 batting average.

The Atlanta Braves have struggled on the road this year, batting .241 and scoring four runs per game. Much like his teammates, Kris Medlen has also had his share of problems performing on the road. Medlen has a 5-6 record away from home with a 4.39 ERA. Considering how well the Marlins have been hitting, and how Great Alvarez has been pitching, there is a lot of value on Miami in this game.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Angels -159

This game fits a solid system that has won 12 of 15 times and plays on road favorites like the Angels that are off a home loss and scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent like the Twins that are also off a home loss and scored 2 or less runs. With Weaver pitching we will take a shot with LA here as J. Weaver has allowed 1 run spanning 23 innings in his last 3 starts vs Minnesota. He has been hot of late with a 1.71 era in his last 3 games. Hernandez for the Twins has a 5.69 era in his starts this season. Minnesota is a dismal 1-8 at home off a home loss where they scored 2 or less runs. Meanwhile the Angels are a solid 9-2 on the road off a home loss. Look for the Angels to take down the Twins tonight in the opening game of the series.

Nick Parsons

Tigers vs. White Sox
Play: Under 7

Detroit and Chicago open a three game set on Monday and each sides' "ace" will be on the bump.

I believe the table is set for a classic pitchers duel.

Max Scherzer (19-2, 2.88 ERA)

Scherzer is still looking for his 20th win of the year after suffering a loss to the Red Sox on Tuesday despite allowing just two earned runs off five hits and three walks over seven innings of work. Scherzer would also strike out 11 in his team's eventual 2-1 setback.

Scherzer has been exceptional on the road this year, 8-1 with a 2.17 ERA.

Chris Sale (10-12, 2.97 ERA)

Sale is coming off a no-decision vs. the Yanks on Tuesday giving up three runs off five hits with a walk over 7 1/3's innings while striking out six.

The southpaw has given up just three earned runs over his last 15 1/3's innings of work to go along with 18 K's.

Sale is just 6-5 in front of the home town crowd this year but with a very respectable 2.55 ERA.

The Bottom line

Four of these team's last six in the season series have fallen below the posted number and all signs do indeed point to another low-scoring affair.

Justin Bay

Cleveland Indians -110

Ervin Santana
- Away: 3.20 ERA, .210 OBA
- August: 3.82 ERA, .285 OBA
- Last Start: 3.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, .500 OBA
- Post All Star: 3.25 ERA, .262 OBA
- Indians hitters vs. Santana in his career: .203 BA

Ubaldo Jimenez
- Home: 4.33 ERA, .238 OBA
- August: 3.10 ERA, .241 OBA
- Last Start: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, .182 OBA
- Post All Star: 2.22 ERA, .212 OBA
- Royals hitters vs. Jimenez in his career: .236 BA

Bruce Marshall

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Dodgers are wobbling it a bit, on their longest losing streak since May after dropping four in row to close the recent road trip. And though Ricky Nolasco has been very good on the mound since being acquired from the Marlins in July, he also rarely goes beyond six innings, which means more work for a Dodger bullpen that couldn't get key outs over the weekend vs. the Reds. The D-backs also usually play well at Chavez Ravine, including a 5-1 mark this year at Dodger Stadium - where they have won 15 of 20. Arizona is also 7-5 vs. the Blue this season, and note that starter Randall Delgado has allowed only 10 hits over 20 IP in his last three starts.

Jim Feist

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Both the Yankees and Orioles have little chance of catching division leader Boston. The Yankees trail by 9 1/2 games and Baltimore by 10. However, the AL Wild Card is still very undecided with six teams all within 3 1/2 games of each other, including both of tonight's clubs. So these games against potential Wild Card opponents are even bigger. The Yankees avoided a sweep at the hands of the Red Sox on a wild pitch in the bottom of the 9th after Mariano Rivera blew another save in the top half of the inning. Meanwhile, the Orioles missed out on sweeping the White Sox Sunday with a 4-2 loss. CC Sabathia will start for the Yankees. Sabathia has struggled all season, though he has won two of his last three starts with a fairly high 5.12 ERA. Chris Tillman will toe the rubber for the O's and he's had a fantastic season, posting a 15-5- record and 3.71 ERA. Tillman is 1-1 in his last three starts with a 3.10 ERA. Big edge in pitching to the O's and in a hitter friendly park like Oriole Park at Camden Yards, I'll take the better pitcher.

Will Rogers

Atlanta vs. Miami
Pick: Atlanta

I usually don't need much of a reason to go against the Miami Marlins, but I have plenty of rationale today as the Atlanta Braves arrive into town. The first place Braves (who have lost four straight) will turn to Kris Medlen, who is pitching well of late & has dominated the Marlins in his career.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Medlen - Over his last three starts, he has a 1.80 ERA and 1.000 WHIP. He's coming off back to back 3-1 victories. His last start saw him go seven strong innings against the Mets, allowing just one run and finishing with nine strikeouts. That was after seven shutout innings vs. the Indians on August 29th where he struck out six and allowed only six hits. Against Miami, Medlen has been spectacular in his career with a 7-0 team start record, 2.58 ERA and 1.037 WHIP.

2. Bounce Back - The Braves were swept over the weekend in Philadelphia, losing all three games by one run. Overall, they have lost four games in a row. They had only two hits yesterday, both of them home runs. This is the longest losing streak of the season, previously matched twice.

3. X-Factor - Atlanta is an outstanding 19-5 their last 24 visits to Miami.

Bill Biles

Los Angeles Dodgers -149

The Dodgers send Ricky Nolasco to the mound today to try to end a 4 game losing streak. He is just the right pitcher to try to end it as he is 7-1 with a 2.27 ERA with the Dodgers, who acquired him from Miami on July 6. He is 6-0 with a 2.11 ERA in his last nine outings. He has pitched 20 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings at home, is 7-2 with a 3.84 ERA in 10 career starts against the Diamondbacks and 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two this year.

Matt Fargo

New York Mets +135

Washington picked up the win yesterday despite another below average road effort from Stephen Strasburg . The Nationals have now won four of their last five games as they continue to keep their slim playoff hopes alive but as I have stated before, it is too little, too late as it has been a disappointing season overall for the Nationals. Despite the small road surge, they are still five games under .500 on the road and they turn to Gio Gonzalez to try and keep it going. He has pitched a lot better at home this season though as he has a 2.64 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 14 home starts while posting a 4.37 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 14 road starts. This has been the case throughout his career as he owns a road ERA that is close to a run higher than his home ERA in 155 career starts. Three of his last four road outings have been non-quality performances and two of those were disasters as he allowed seven and 10 runs respectively against Kansas City and Detroit. The Mets head back home following a 4-5 roadtrip and while they are 10 games under .500 at Citi Field this season, they have been doing better as they are 11-10 over their last 21 home games there. Additionally, the Mets are 5-2 in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record and they turn to Carlos Torres tonight. He has been pretty solid this season in his limited time in the rotation as he has allowed three runs or less in four of his five starts including giving up one run three times. His only bad outing happened to come against Washington as he allowed eight runs in just three innings and that is certainly going to provide some extra motivation tonight. In two home starts, Torres is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and has received 15 runs of support behind him.

Steve Janus

Detroit Tigers -133

I'm back Max Scherzer and the Tigers on the road at a reasonable price against the White Sox. Scherzer is 19-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in 28 starts this season and I fully expect him to become the first pitcher to reach the 20-win plateau in 2013.

This will be Scherzer's fourth start against the White Sox this season, he's 2-0 and hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs and four hits in a single outing vs Chicago. The White Sox will counter with Chris Sale, who is 2-4 with a 4.10 ERA in six career starts vs the Tigers. Sale comes in not pitching his best right now. He's got a 4.43 ERA over his last three starts. The White Sox in general have not been playing well. Their 4-2 win over Baltimore on Sunday snapped a 9-game losing streak.

SPORTS WAGERS

Season Win Total - Washington under 8 +116

If you shop around you will find some 8½’s out there but you’re going to have to lay -140 or so to play it under that number. That said, you might want to wait until very late in the pre-season to make this wager because Redskins coach Mike Shanahan hates to lose preseason games. The Redskins could easily turn up the heat and go 4-0 in the preseason and should that come to pass, you could get a better number. However, if Robert Griffin III happens to injure himself in the preseason, this number will drop dramatically. We choose to play it now because that leaves nothing to chance before the preseason.

We’ll apply our buy low, sell high philosophy here. The Redskins won the division last season. They are high on most people’s radar and they have become a very sexy choice to make a deep run this season. RG3 made quite a splash in his rookie season. He certainly lived up to all the hype and there’s no question that he’s an impact player. However, we have concerns about his health and this number is based on RG3 being healthy. Running QB’s in this league rarely play 16 games. They are huge targets and an injury is inevitable. The Redskins rode the hype of RG3 last year and turned it into a terrific season but teams will be better prepped this season to face him and he’s not 100% yet. The Washington Redskins almost placed Robert Griffin III on the Physically Unable to Perform list when training camp began. They avoided that and Griffin did not participate in team drills at the start of camp and there is no timetable for that to happen. Griffin is expected take part in seven-on-seven drills and to throw to all of the receivers. Exactly one week ago on the 22nd of July, Griffin tweeted that doctors have cleared him to practice but the coaches will ease him in.

We have to turn our attentions back to Mike Shanahan. Shanahan is unfit to coach in this league. Shanahan risked RGIII's career in an attempt to win a Wild Card game. Shanahan does not care about his players, they are a means to an end, and that end is Mike Shanahan's further employment. He has done more brow-beating and tearing down than any other coach. The man is unprofessional for calling out players in the media. This doesn't build repoire or team spirit, it tears down the locker room. Shanahan is a bad coach who got lucky he had Steve Young and John Elway to bail him out for his bad decisions in the past and RG3 last year. There were many close games his team should have won. Terrible fourth quarter play-calling, throwing players under the bus in public, creation of multiple scapegoats to shift criticism away from the coaching staff is nothing new for Shanahan. Owner Daniel Snyder and Mike Shanahan is the absolute worst owner/coach combo in professional football. Now in his second year, the players are not going to respond to his terrorism like they did a year ago.

In terms of talent and outside of RG3, the Redskins lack talented players at the skilled positions. Let’s also not ignore that they gave up the right for a first round pick until 2015 when they acquired the rights to RGIII. Once again that was orchestrated by Shanahan, whose goal is not to win Super Bowls but to simply stay in charge of an NFL team by any means necessary. That means the Redskins roster will be filled with aging vets, castoffs and no impact rookies.

The most serious issue, however, is the Redskins schedule. Winning the division a year ago has Washington playing other division winners. The Redskins play at Denver, at Green Bay and at Atlanta. They also have to play the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles twice each. In fact, aside from Oakland in Week 4, the ‘’Skins do not have an easy game the entire year. There is no Tennessee, Arizona, Jets, Brownies, or Jacksonville on the slate. Instead, the Redskins have to play San Fran, San Diego, Detroit, Chicago, San Diego, K.C., and Minnesota besides the aforementioned nine games. We’ve put their schedule in easy to read form here:

Week 1 - Mon, Sep 9 Philadelphia

Week 2 - Sun, Sep 15 @ Green Bay

Week 3 - Sun, Sep 22 Detroit

Week 4 - Sun, Sep 29 @ Oakland

Week 5 - Bye

Week 6 - Sun, Oct 13 @ Dallas**

Week 7 - Sun, Oct 20 Chicago

Week 8 - Sun, Oct 27 @ Denver

Week 9 - Sun, Nov 3 San Diego

Week 10 - Thu, Nov 7 @ Minnesota

Week 11 - Sun, Nov 17 @ Philadelphia

Week 12 - Mon, Nov 25 San Francisco

Week 13 - Sun, Dec 1 NY Giants**

Week 14 - Sun, Dec 8 Kansas City

Week 15 - Sun, Dec 15 @ Atlanta

Week 16 - Sun, Dec 22 Dallas

Week 17 - Sun, Dec 29 @ NY Giants

The two stars** denotes Sunday night, prime timers in which the ‘Skins have two of those. They also travel to Minnesota on three days’ rest on Thanksgiving Thursday on November 7, which means their November 3rd home game against the Chargers is in a “look ahead” spot. The ‘Skins also have two Monday night games, meaning almost a third of their games (5 in total) are prime time games. The Redskins close the season with games against Atlanta, Dallas and the Giants, meaning that Week 14 game against K.C is another “difficult” spot. This is one of the league’s toughest schedules.

Can you see nine wins here? If things go swimmingly for the Redskins, they’ll be hard-pressed to win eight games. A couple of key injuries, the inevitable locker room tensions that accompany Shanahan wherever he goes and a lack of talent at the skilled positions will all contribute to this overvalued squad having a very mediocre year and certainly not nine wins.

Sam Martin

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles

Taking the points with the Eagles tonight as they unveil their new up-tempo offense under head coach Chip Kelly, and while we give the Eagles a decent shot at winning this game outright we give them an even better chance of covering this number. Philly was held to 20 and 7 points in the two games played against the Redskins last season, but now Washington will start RGIII at QB making his first start after that horrific injury last year, and he didn't have the same offseason conditioning and practice time as other quarterback around the league had. Kelly will have his Eagles ready on offense and as this game goes on the Eagles scoring chances will improve against a tired Washington defense. Redskins just 11-24 ATS at home in September and play this game close giving Philly a chance to win outright late.

Sean Murphy

Arizona vs. LA Dodgers
Pick: Arizona

We've finally seen some cracks in the Dodgers armor as they've dropped four games in a row but there's no reason to hit the panic button as they still lead the N.L. West by a whopping 11-game margin.

The team firmly entrenched in second place in the division is Arizona. We missed the mark with the D'Backs in a tough extra innings loss yesterday but I won't hesitate to support them at an even higher underdog price on Monday night.

The D'Backs have won three of their last five games and should relish the opportunity to play the 'spoiler' role in L.A. this week. I like their chances in the series opener as they hand the ball to Randall Delgado. He's been quietly effective lately, giving up three earned runs or less in three consecutive starts, with the Snakes going 2-1 over that stretch. Note that they're 4-2 in his six road starts this season and 8-4 when he takes the ball under the lights. Arizona did lose Delgado's lone previous start against the Dodgers this year, but it wasn't entirely his fault as he gave up only three earned runs in six innings.

Ricky Nolasco will counter for L.A. He's been lights out, allowing two earned runs or less in six straight starts. The question his, how long can this veteran keep it up? In time split in Miami and L.A. this season he's only recorded a 3.56 ERA at home, and at night he's given up more hits (126) than innings pitched (120 1/3). The D'Backs will be getting their third look at Nolasco this season after falling short in their last two tries against him. Keep in mind, in Nolasco's lone outing against the Snakes last year, he was tagged for five earned runs in five innings. He made one start against them two years ago and gave up five earned runs in only three innings.

In terms of current form, the D'Backs have a significant edge when it comes to the bullpens, with their relief corps having recorded a collective 2.45 ERA over their last five games. For their part, the Dodgers 'pen has posted an ERA north of five over that same stretch.