Jeffrey Brandes
Washington Nationals -143
Gonzalez threw a lot of pitches -- 118 -- in 5 2/3 innings Tuesday in Philadelphia. His saving grace was the changeup and it helped him win his ninth game of the season.Torres was terrific in his second start since rejoining the rotation, but a pair of late homers doomed him Tuesday in Atlanta. Though the Mets prefer using Torres out of the bullpen, he will remain in the rotation for now.
Dave Price
LA Dodgers -152
I like LA's chances of ending its 4-game losing streak with Nolasco on the hill. He is 7-1 with a 2.27 ERA with the Dodgers, including 6-0 with a 2.11 ERA in his last nine outings. He has pitched 20 1-3 consecutive scoreless innings at home, and is 7-2 with a 3.84 ERA in 10 career starts against the Diamondbacks - 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two this year. Arizona's Randall Delgado, who is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in his last six starts, hasn't been nearly as sharp. The Dodgers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, and I expect them to come through again tonight.
Tony Bucca
LA Dodgers -155
Delgado pitches better at home. He's 3-2 on the road with a 4.19 ERA, 1.29 WHIP while opponents are hitting .260 against him. Nolasco is 6-6 at home (mostly with Miami) with a 3.56 ERA and nice 1.16 WHIP. Dodgers have won their L3 in this series and 4 out of 5. The Dodgers are 3-0 in Nolasco's L3 starts.
Jack Jones
Pittsburgh Pirates +166
The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing some of their best value of the season today as a big road underdog in Game 1 of this series against the Texas Rangers. Off four straight losses, there's no question that Pittsburgh is highly motivated for a victory in this one.
I like their chances of getting back on track with rookie Gerrit Cole on the mound. The right-hander is 6-7 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 15 starts. Cole has been at his best on the road, going 2-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.928 WHIP in five starts away from home.
Yu Darvish is certainly having a solid season for Texas as well. However, he has struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in his last two starts, allowing eight earned runs, four homers and 16 base runners over 11 2/3 innings in losses to the Twins and A's.
The Pirates are 9-2 in their last 11 interleague games, including 7-1 in their last 8 interleague games as an underdog. Pittsburgh is 31-13 in its last 44 after scoring 2 runs or less in its previous game. The Rangers are 0-4 in Darvish's last 4 starts overall. Bet the Pirates Monday.
Doug Upstone
New York Yankees +120
Things are really tightening up in the American League and tonights game will definitely impact the outcome. It is Yankees vs Orioles and I am saying take the Yankees behind C.C. Sabathia tonight. I know this hasn't been a banner season for the big lefty but the Yanks have been backing him up and he is the more trustworthy option compared to Orioles big winner Chris Tillman.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +3½ over WASHINGTON
The Redskins swept the Eagles last year, winning 31-6 at home and later 27-20 in Philadelphia in week Week 16. Remember, this is the NFC East where rivalries are intense and where it’s rare for one team to dominate another in back-to-back seasons. The Redskins welcome back Robert Griffin III after he tore up his knee and rehabbed to get back for this week. The Redskins had a very successful 2012 season with a 10-6 finish and a NFC East title. That was won on the backs of both RG3 and the surprising Alfred Morris who literally jumped out of the depth charts in week one to become one of the better running backs in the league. The problem is that RG3 could be very rusty because he did not play in the preseason and that’s rather significant. Furthermore, it’s not the Redskins offense that is a problem, it’s keeping the opposition from moving the chains and scoring points that is ultimately going to be the ‘Skins downfall this year. Washington paid a hefty price for RG3, giving up first round picks in the draft until 2015 and that means they’ll enter this season older, slower and with a lack of talent, outside of RG3, at the skilled positions. Last season, it was Philly that was projected to do well and Washington to struggle but this season we have a role reversal and that is a good position to be in when accepting points on Monday Night Football.
This is the first time we get to see what the Chip Kelly hype is all about. Andy Reid has finally left and a new era in Philly has started. They managed to grab the most coveted college coach in Chip Kelly who commanded a ridiculously productive offense in Oregon. Unfortunately the team lost Jeremy Maclin in July and with him their primary receiver. But this hurry-up, run-oriented scheme should be tailored made for the backfield talent and Michael Vick is getting yet another second chance at being a starter. Vick did not play against the Redskins last year and Nick Foles was held to just one passing score in two games. Chip Kelly utilizing LeSean McCoy is a scary thought and McCoy, who looked great in camp, figures to get a ton of touches here against a weak Washington defense. Look for Kelly to also utilize the passing game. Chip Kelly’s plan is to try and run 70+ plays from scrimmage and test the conditioning of the Redskins in the first game. Whether or not he’s successful remains to be seen but one thing we know for sure is that Philly is a complete enigma. The Eagles have completely new systems in place, offensively, defensively and on special teams. What that means is that the ‘Skins have nothing to go on in terms of preparation. You simply can’t prepare for something you’ve never seen before and that’s precisely what Kelly brings to the table. That makes the Eagles a very interesting proposition here. The Eagles may fall flat on their faces here but they could also thrive with some crazy offensive numbers and that possibility has us leaning their way.
SAN DIEGO +5 over Houston
Line opened at Houston -3½. It’s up to 4, 4½ or even 5 at some places and will probably be as high as 6 by 10:00 PM tonight. This is the last game of the week. It’s also the second game of tonight’s Monday Night double-header, meaning the Texans will be the second or third part of all two and three-game parlays. Do you actually think the oddsmakers did not anticipate this heavy lean on the visitor? Of course they did. Monday Night Football is lined with mismatches that were supposed to be easy money but failed miserably. This one has that stench to it. There is no sense in breaking down this matchup. NFL football is bigger than it’s ever been. Hour after hour after hour you can turn on the TV or radio and hear so called experts breaking down these games to precisely how they are supposed to turn out. Indy was supposed to whack the Raiders, New England was a cinch to defeat the Bills. Tampa was going to destroy the Jets, etc, etc, etc.
We all know that the Chargers have been a mess of mistake filled football games, bad coaching, underachievers and just a pathetic football team to wager on. The oddsmakers know that too. We’re not going to try and make a case for the Chargers because it’s near impossible. The Texans, coming off a 12-4 year and winning the AFC South are supposed to go into San Diego tonight and steamroll over this San Diego team that virtually brings the same players as last year, minus Danario Alexander. Philip Rivers returns for his tenth NFL season but comes off his worst year since 2007. The Chargers are learning a new offense by OC Ken Whisenhunt but they have no players that stand out. The Texans sport a great rushing defense and the Chargers are busy installing a new offensive scheme. The Texans still have J. J. Watt and Brian Cushing and added Ed Reed to the secondary. Against a below average team this defense should be dominating. So yeah, on paper, the Texans are supposed to come in here and blow away the Chargers but we’ve been doing this too long to not recognize something that smells fishy. You’re very likely going to bet the Texans tonight and we could not blame you for doing so. However, this is the biggest public play of the week and that’s a side that’s loses far too often for us to get on board with. You’ve been warned.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas City +100 over CLEVELAND
The Indians are two games back in the Wild Card race while the Royals are 3½-games back, thus setting up this crucial series. Ubaldo Jimenez is enjoying a bit of a rebound season this year, at least in relation to how terrible he was last year. His ERA is down under 4.00, and while he still walks too many, his dominance has increased to 9 K’s per 9 innings, which would be a career best. Interestingly, Jimenez's velocity has continued its slow decline from the mid-90s a few years ago. The difference, at least this year, appears to be an increased reliance on his slider. Jimenez has been hot in the last month or so (35 IP, 41/15 K/BB since the beginning of August). However, in those five August starts, Jimenez faced the Braves, A’s, Twins, Angels and Marlins. What that group has in common is that they are among the league leaders in striking out. Atlanta, for instance has struck out more than any team in baseball besides the Astros and the Twinkies are just four strikeouts behind them. As a result, Jimenez’s K rate over the past month is extremely skewed and that’s the real key here. You see, the Royals have struck out the least amount of times in MLB and that means that Jimenez is not going to get these guys to swing at pitches way out of the zone. In other words, he’s likely to be behind in the count more than ahead and that’s when he prone to being whacked.
Improved control and dominance against lefties has driven Ervin R. Santana. Kansas City rebuilt their rotation in the offseason with the big acquisition being James Shields but Santana has more than held his own. While his record is only 8-8, the rest of his numbers have been impressive. Santana’s xERA shows that there is real skills growth here. He’s walking fewer batters resulting in control that hasn’t been this good since 2008. Santana’s groundball % is also creeping up. It was in the mid-30% range earlier in his career, but it’s gone up sharply the past three years to a career high of 47% this season. He’s also dominating lefties. While his career OPS against them is .772, he’s holding them to .603 in 2013. The 30-year-old Santana is peaking at the right time. He’s a free agent at the end of this season and with many eyes on this series, this start becomes one of Santana’s most important of the year in terms of his potential contract and whether or not the Royals win this important series. Money is a huge motivating factor.
Pittsburgh +163 over TEXAS
Yu Darvish is wickedly good. This guy has the best road skills in MLB and it’s not even close. Overall, Darvish has an amazing 240 K’s in 180 innings but all those pitches and innings take a toll. Rangers’ manager, Ron Washington has been known to burn out pitchers. The list of pitcher’s he’s burned out over the years is a long one and he’s also been known to really burn them out over the course of a year. It’s probably the main reason why the Rangers make the playoffs every season but subsequently get knocked out early. Darvish’s pitch count is rarely under 113 a game. Even with five and six runs leads, Ron Washington will keep sending him out there until his tank is empty and the effects are beginning to show. Darvish has been taken yard four times over his past two starts in Oakland and at home to the Twinkies. In his last start, he also walked six batters. Overall, the Rangers have lost Darvish’s last four starts to Oakland, Minnesota, the White Sox and Seattle and his ERA over that span was 4.62. It would not surprise one bit to see him lose another one here.
Gerrit Cole has flashed his rotation-anchor upside since being called up by the Pirates. Cole’s 96 mph average four-seam fastball and 10% swinging K rate give him more strikeout upside than he has shown and his off speed stuff has been nothing short of dominating. Cole has thrown his change-up and curveball 232 times and batters have managed only two extra-base hits against those pitches. Don't be surprised if he becomes Pittsburgh’s best pitcher in September, into the playoffs and all of next season. Aside from his outstanding arsenal of pitches, Cole has a 50% groundball rate and his control is improving with each outing. Over his past 25 innings, Cole has walked just four batters while whiffing 19. Geritt Cole is coming on strong while Yu Darvish is fading and the price here makes this one even more appealing.
Tony George
Eagles / Redskins Under 52
This game has many much anticipated headlines. Chip Kelly’s Oregon Duck offense in the NFL with Mike Vick at the controls? How about the return of RG III to the lineup, and is the spread read option attack going into full use tonight or are they going to play it conservative while the young star continues to mend, although they say he is 100% ready to rock and roll tonight.? What a scenario to watch unfold on ESPN tonight in the early game, but where is the value in the line because of all the intangibles?
With all this firepower and perceived firepower on offense it looks like a great deal to take the OVER 52 in this game. That said the running game will be crucial and I expect the Skins to expose the defense of Philly which gave up 28 ppg in 2012 with their ground game both with their bevy of RB’s and yes, RG III. Trust me when I tell you the Skins will also get a healthy dose of RB McCoy from the Eagles as well. Washington has the better defense here with a strong LB unit and they are 100% healthy for once. RG III also tore up the Eagles last year in conference play, but at day’s end, running the ball and playing good defense is the key to success in this game, and I see Washington having an advantage there as well as home field which is worth a couple of points here at least.
With all those advantages it looks like a take to lay the points with Washington but I do not like this number at over 3, and I do not think this will be the track meet many suspect.
A great game with a ton of storylines, but I expect the scoring to be in the mid 40’s and I will recommend a small lean on the UNDER 52 in this game
Sean Murphy
Arizona vs. LA Dodgers
Pick: Arizona
We've finally seen some cracks in the Dodgers armor as they've dropped four games in a row but there's no reason to hit the panic button as they still lead the N.L. West by a whopping 11-game margin.
The team firmly entrenched in second place in the division is Arizona. We missed the mark with the D'Backs in a tough extra innings loss yesterday but I won't hesitate to support them at an even higher underdog price on Monday night.
The D'Backs have won three of their last five games and should relish the opportunity to play the 'spoiler' role in L.A. this week. I like their chances in the series opener as they hand the ball to Randall Delgado. He's been quietly effective lately, giving up three earned runs or less in three consecutive starts, with the Snakes going 2-1 over that stretch. Note that they're 4-2 in his six road starts this season and 8-4 when he takes the ball under the lights. Arizona did lose Delgado's lone previous start against the Dodgers this year, but it wasn't entirely his fault as he gave up only three earned runs in six innings.
Ricky Nolasco will counter for L.A. He's been lights out, allowing two earned runs or less in six straight starts. The question his, how long can this veteran keep it up? In time split in Miami and L.A. this season he's only recorded a 3.56 ERA at home, and at night he's given up more hits (126) than innings pitched (120 1/3). The D'Backs will be getting their third look at Nolasco this season after falling short in their last two tries against him. Keep in mind, in Nolasco's lone outing against the Snakes last year, he was tagged for five earned runs in five innings. He made one start against them two years ago and gave up five earned runs in only three innings.
In terms of current form, the D'Backs have a significant edge when it comes to the bullpens, with their relief corps having recorded a collective 2.45 ERA over their last five games. For their part, the Dodgers 'pen has posted an ERA north of five over that same stretch.
Craig Davis
This total should be sitting at 6 or 6 1/2... but 7 is too high in my opinion. You can start by looking at the pitchers on the mound and then follow that up by looking at these two offenses lately.
Max Scherzer (19-2, 2.88 ERA) takes another shot at becoming the first pitcher to reach 20 wins this season after blowing a golden opportunity vs. Boston last week. Scherzer is still considered one of the best pitchers in the American League and has had a lot of success vs. Chicago in his career.
Over 16 starts, Scherzer is 7-4 with a 2.34 ERA vs. the Pale Hose... and the only reason his record isn't better is the fact that the Tigers don't give him a ton of run support when playing Chicago. He's also 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his last five starts against the Sox.
And speaking of pitchers who don't get a lot of run support... look no further than Chicago lefty Chris Sale (10-12, 2.97 ERA). Since an awful start vs. Texas back in mid-August, Sale has bounced back to strike out 18 batters and allow only three earned runs over his last two starts.
Versus the Tigers this year he's already 2-1 with a 2.66 ERA in three starts.
The Tigers have totaled just 13 runs (not counting one game where they scored 16) in dropping five of seven to start the month of September.
Should be a low scoring game in which the final score is in the neighborhood of 3-2. This game goes under the total and it's your free play of the day.
5♦ DETROIT-CHICAGO UNDER
Jeff Benton
My Monday comp play will be the Indians at home as they begin a big wild card implication series against the Royals.
Kansas City is charging hard with 11 wins in their last 14 games, but they must play tonight on the road against a Cleveland team that has won 5 of their last 7 overall.
It is a Cleveland team that swept the last series meeting against Kansas City, the Tribe taking all 3 at Progressive Field in the middle of July. The Indians have won 6 of the last 8 meetings played between the teams this season.
Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez are the listed starters, and while Jimenez may only be 3-5 his last 8 starts, his ERA in those starts stands at a slender 2.22.
Santana has not won since August the 4th, and is on an 0-1 run with an over 5 ERA his last 3 trips to the mound.
Huge playoff implications apply tonight, and my money is on the host to draw first blood.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Monday night is the Over in the Pirates-Rangers game.
Were this game being played earlier in the season, I might look for a pitcher's duel, but right now it looks like rookie Gerrit Cole is not quite used to the long MLB season, as he comes into tonight's start in Arlington on an 0-2 run his last 3 starts with a 3.26 ERA, as Cole has worked past the 6th inning just once in his last 6 starts.
As for Texas starter Yu Darvish, he is on an 0-2 slide his last 4 starts with a 4.50 ERA.
Both teams have played Overs in 3 of their last 4 games, and I like another Over tonight in the series opener between the clubs.
2♦ PITTSBURGH-TEXAS OVER
Brett Atkins
My free play for tonight is on the Seattle Mariners run line against the visiting Houston Astros.
I know that Run Line plays automatically list pitchers with starters who are scheduled to go at the time of of making the wager, but I am not concerned with who goes for either team in this game and want you playing the game on the Run Line regardless. That being said, I may mention the pitchers who are going - Jarred Cosart and Taijuan Walker - cause they will be on your ticket. Plus, IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to be sure you have action even if one of the pitchers scheduled to start is scratched, and re-wager the game if that takes place.
Seattle has taken 10 of the 16 meetings between the teams and it has also posted a respectable 34-33 mark against the American League West this season. Though the M's were unable to complete a three-game sweep of Tampa Bay after losing 4-1 in the series finale yesterday, they won't be dismayed and are resilient enough to take it to the abysmal Astros.
Houston is four games shy of the 100-loss mark, and it's inevitable - this team is well on its way to the century mark and continue to display a sad presentation on the field. So when it faces Walker, I don't expect much from the lineup.
Walker is not only Seattle's top young gun, he's considered one of the league's top prospects, and already gave us a look into Seattle's future when the 21-year-old right-hander strutted his stuff late last month in a 7-1 victory in Houston, allowing just one unearned run and two hits in five innings. That was his MLB debut. Now he gets the Astros at home. I like the M's on the run line, as they should win big.
5♦ SEATTLE -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the diamond, as I'm staking my chances in a huge home underdog out of the National League East, with the Miami Marlins over the Atlanta Braves, who have lost four straight and might be hitting a bit of a slump right quick. I won't list either pitcher, cause I think the Fish are catching Atlanta at the right time and could steal this series-opener.
So after being swept in Philadelphia, the Braves have to bypass Atlanta and head to South Florida for a series with the lowly Marlins, who have no business winning this game, and that's why I like them. It looks too easy to take Atlanta, which has won 20 of 26 in Miami and seven straight when Kris Medlen toes the slab for the Braves in this matchup.
But the Braves have not only dropped four straight, but they're also mired in losing streaks of 1-6 with a suitcase in hand, 2-5 after a loss and 1-5 against right-handed starters.
I know Miami has lost nine of its last 13 games, and is 5-10 against Atlanta this season, but this is one of those nights to take a chance with a team like the Marlins.
1♦ MIAMI
Scott Delaney
My complimentary winner for Monday is on the San Francisco Giants against the slumping Colorado Rockies, as the defending World Series champs will take advantage and take this series-opener at AT&T Park.
Neither team is headed to the postseason, I think we all know that's a given, but the Giants would love nothing more than to save a little face when they're playing at home. While the Rockies are tied with the San Diego Padres for third place in the National League West, after the Padres completed a three-game sweep of Colorado with yesterday's 5-2 victory, it's the Giants who are looking to climb out of the cellar and send the Rockies to the basement.
San Fran is now 1-1/2 games behind the Rox and Padres after yesterday's 3-2 win in 11 innings over the Arizona Diamondbacks.
I don't care about listing pitchers in this one, as it's more about the Giants going out and getting it done. And I don't see that being a problem against a Rockies team that is mired in additional losing streaks of 1-5 in division play, 1-4 against righties and 18-39 in this series.
5♦ SAN FRANCISCO